CBO’s 2015 Long-Term Projections for Social Security: Additional Information

This report presents additional information about CBO’s long-term projections for Social Security’s revenues and outlays and its analysis of benefits and payroll taxes for recipients grouped by birth year and lifetime earnings.

Under current law, CBO projects, Social Security’s trust funds, considered together, will be exhausted in 2029, and shortfalls will be larger than CBO projected in last year’s edition of this report.

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Social Security Policy Options, 2015

This report analyzes 36 policy options that are among those commonly proposed by policymakers and analysts, presenting their effects on the Social Security System’s finances and on people born at various times and with different amounts of earnings. Although most of the options would improve Social Security’s long-term finances, only a few would significantly postpone the combined trust funds’ exhaustion date. No individual option by itself could create long-term stability for the Social Security program.

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The Federal Role in the Financing of Multifamily Rental Properties

Multifamily properties provide shelter for approximately one-third of the more than 100 million renters in the United States. Mortgages carrying an actual or implied federal guarantee have been an important source of financing for multifamily properties, particularly after the 2008–2009 recession. This report discusses four broad approaches to modifying the federal government’s role in the multifamily mortgage market.

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Replacing Military Personnel in Support Positions With Civilian Employees

In the Department of Defense, civilian workers in the support occupations that CBO analyzed cost the government as a whole about 30 percent less, on average, than military personnel. Consequently, the department could reduce federal costs by replacing some military personnel in support positions with civilian employees. If it replaced 80,000 military personnel in nondeploying units, it could eventually save $3.1 billion to $5.7 billion annually, depending on how many civilians would be required to replace them.

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Effective Marginal Tax Rates for Low- and Moderate-Income Workers in 2016

In 2016, low- and moderate-income workers will face an effective marginal tax rate of 31 percent, on average. Federal individual income and payroll taxes will be the main contributors; that estimate also takes into account state individual income taxes and the phaseout, at various income levels, of the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program and the cost-sharing subsidies for health insurance. That rate will vary greatly by people’s income and other, nonfinancial characteristics.

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CBO’s 2015 Long-Term Projections for Social Security: Additional Information
Social Security Policy Options, 2015
The Federal Role in the Financing of Multifamily Rental Properties
Replacing Military Personnel in Support Positions With Civilian Employees
Effective Marginal Tax Rates for Low- and Moderate-Income Workers in 2016