We even agreed, when he considered Cameron's demands, making the City of London an offshore territory in the heart of the single market,"im-po-ssi-ble".

This is a curious view of recent events, but it is written by someone from France. Toujours la vérité

He's a politician he like all politicians want to hang on to power and the trappings of state at any cost

Loathe him (I know I do) or love him. He's a fighter. I certainly wouldnt assume he's down and out.

This comment was removed by a moderator because it didn't abide by our community standards. Replies may also be deleted. For more detail see our FAQs.

"The trouble is, Sarkozy does not know when he's beaten"

The question is who will beat him,Hollande or LePen?.

Would the world accept Ms.Le Pen?.

It's good to hear a French perspective on Sarkozy.

The problem I always feel he has on the international stage is that his actions are so transparent, so blatantly planned, so absurdly vacuous. It seems clear, even when he's telling Cameron to shut up, that he's really got his eyes on the next election, not saving Europe from the slow car-crash it seems to have been trying to leap away from for the past year.

Europe needs leaders who genuinely care about what's good for their countries and the European Union, not what's good for their careers and the opinion polls.

In politics as in many other fields the one thing that separates winners from losers is will power. Winners really want to win; losers would like to win but not if it causes them too much pain. If Sarkozy does prevail in next year's election it will primarily be because he wants victory very badly whereas M Hollande may not do.

The majority of French people still believe DSK was the victim of a plot.

That is a very cheap and facile argument if I may say so. After all, we are talking about a country which is notorious for believing in every conspiracy theory you can imagine. From CloClo who died in his bath after an electrical appliance fell into it, to Coluche's death in a motorbike accident, and on to 9/11 and now DSK, surveys have shown that the French have always believed in whatever theory someone may come up with as long as

"it woz the government wot did it, innit."

Would the world accept Ms.Le Pen?.

Fortunately a question unlikely to require an answer.

As the French wisely use a system similar to that so foolishly rejected by the British in this year's referendum, a Le Pen victory would be all but impossible.

Even if she does somehow manage to scrape through into the top 2, the anti extremist majoritry would unite against her, annihilating her in a similar way to the manner in which Chirac pulversied her father (81% - 19%) with the help of socialist and communist votes in 2002.

Above comment is a reply to this...

You're generalizing. Conspiracy theories do have a fringe audience but are on the whole absent from the public debate. I would even go further and say conspiracy theorists are less prevalent here than in other countries.

That is what i was referring to.

Of course France was not in the grip of the Euro collapsing and its amount of debt being questioned when her father ran.

This agreement maybe needed again.

'......his actions are so transparent, so blatantly planned, so absurdly vacuous.'

Sounds exactly like David Cameron to me.......

I bet you'd give her a standing bloody ovation.

There's only one thing you've failed to mention in this lightning tour of DSK, despots and babies.

It's the economy.

The Euro is bust. French banks are bust. France is bust.

Unfortunately, there is no candidate running who might have made a better fist of things than Sarkozy (DSK might have done), and the inevitable change of government is not going to dig France out of a hole.

Disillusionment awaits, to be followed in fairly short order by tractor drivers blocking up the Champs Elysee, no doubt.

You took his bait.
He wanted to change the subject from Sarkozy to a topic he wants to talk about...

French socialism hadn't been irrevocably tarnished in New York after all...

No, that already happened when les Socialistes adopted the head of the I.M.effing.F as it's greatest hope. Still, here's hoping Hollande can remove Sarko, somehow.

The year could not have worked out better for the president

Well the Euro could magically have fixed itself and France could have had its AAA credit rating confirmed in the medium term but yes he has got lucky. His populist attacks on Britain and Turkey have become a bit desperate however.

In politics as in many other fields the one thing that separates winners from losers is will power.

Although in bourgeois democracies we have a habit of calling that 'votes'. Or do you think Brown really wanted to lose in 2010, Major in 1997, and all that was lacking was willpower?

Absolutely. But I get the impression (albeit from my not-as-well-informed-as-I-would-like-it-to-be standpoint) that Ms Merkel is much more genuine. I might well be wrong on that, though.

I'm afraid Sarkozy may win because he'll end up facing Le Pen in the run-off.

@Fripouille 7.30pm

The French may love a conspiracy, but on the particular issue of DSK I would urge you to read Edward Jay Epstein in the New York Review of Books, December 22nd 2011 and come to any other conclusion than that he was set up.

I say this as someone who is fond of the empirical approach. It's all there. And it's suitably disturbing.

and as he sees it, he now has to save the euro singlehandedly and steer a ship called Europe out of the storm.

Christ on a bike. Only saving the Euro. Crash Gordon saved the world. Same result will occur in both cases.

'.......Ms Merkel is much more genuine'.

Agree. Hope we are right!

The non-Socialist Left will yet again fail to understand that their refusal to present a common front with theSocialists is why the left has been out of power in France for so long.

If all the communist parties stood aside and supported Hollande the Spocialists will have more of a chance.

Absolutely. But I get the impression (albeit from my not-as-well-informed-as-I-would-like-it-to-be standpoint) that Ms Merkel is much more genuine. I might well be wrong on that, though

.

I'm no great fan of Angela (which sounds a bit like a euphemism ..) but it's a sign of just how desperate times are that she does look like about the most impressive leader of a major western power today.

The problem is that the caution which has been on the whole a virtue has in the face of the Euro's problems become more of a vice...

How can Sarkozy be defeated, when your elections aren't until May?

Is he supposed to not run for re-election, because he is currently behind in the polls?

You still have a democracy in France, non??

Poll in March, when Le Pen was polling rather better than she is now:

In the event of her facing Hollande in the second ballot:

Mars 2011 (%)

François Hollande 71
Marine Le Pen 27
Ni l'une ni l'autre 2

Current polls show Hollande in the lead and Le Pen third on about 16% (though polls have sometimes underestimated FN support)

The debacle of 2002 was largely due to too many leftist voters thinking that Jospin was certain to get through to the second round, allowing them the luxury of splitting their votes among a whole slew of left wing candidates. They are much less likely to make the same mistake again.

This comment was removed by a moderator because it didn't abide by our community standards. Replies may also be deleted. For more detail see our FAQs.

Let us hope so.

Last thing Europe needs is a far-right even making it to the second round of the elections especially with Euro on the verge a far right growing fringes in may European countries.

The drama of DSK really was a godsend to Sarko. Even if he was set up though, any politician who'd take a sexual favour from a chambermaid in a hotel room covered by taxpayers should never be elected.

I would not like to see it , but i think that M.Le Pen has a decent chance to feature the second round , it's not totally unlikely that she can reach around 22% in May . She's currently around 16% in the polls , taking into account that a lot of people hide their intentions to vote FN

Many UMP right-right voters disappointed by Sarkozy will probably vote for her , but there is also the fact that it's very likely the turn out next May will be lower than the 2007 election which had the lowest abstentions ever , and i think a higher abstention rate could benefit the extreme right candidate

Then there is the abundance of candidates on the left , many of them will make 3-4% , which means less votes for Hollande mainly , then you have the Green candidate (E.Joly ) , the center candidate (Bayrou) , and some centre right candidates like De Villepin who will take votes out of Hollande and Sarkozy , all this could benefit Le Pen , so i think it's not unthinkable that we'll see a repeat of 2002 , especially since she worked hard on "etiquette" and media communication to appeal to more women , and tries to hunt on the socialist 's turf , coming up with with a social and economic dimension to her speech , which is new for the FN

In France,like in most countries where populism thrives,all politicians are unpopular,because the people see they can't achieve anything to "beat" the crisis.Sarkozy in fact was rather more successful at it then most other European leaders.The problem is not the popularity of Sarkozy but that of his main contender,Hollande.Hollande did a very bad job at the head of the socialist party,He's got no projects at all except to undo what the UMP did.He signed an agreement with the greens(les verts)that nobody or hardly anybody in the PS approves of,he promised 60000 new teachers' jobs before telling journalists he'd suppress 60000 jobs in the civil service to pay for them,and without saying which jobs would be suppressed.And so on and so forth.
And many socialist mayors,"conseillers régionaux",conseillers généraux,.......don't even want Hollande to win.For them it's very convenient to have Sarkozy because the gouvernment,because of the crisis,is so unpopular they have no problems at all to be reelected.It's important to remember that the PS rules France at the local level,but that the local rank and file of the party is not that much interested in what goes on in Paris.
In december 2006 the polls gave 55% of the vote to Royal and 45% to Sarkozy.And,up to now,Hollande hasn't done any better than his former wife to convince the French.In fact,the more he talks,the more unpopular he gets.He seems to understands that and talks very little.But still too much.If the socialist had a good candidate they would be sure to win,but Hollande is not a winner somehow.

As a Brit living in France, may I just say that Agnes Poirier is calling it wrong as per bloody usual. Hollande is only ahead in the polls for 2 reasons: firstly, the socialist primaries attracted massive media coverage, which incidentally, all media organisations in France are now endeavouring to redress. Secondly, because yer man Sarko hasn't even started campaigning. He is an absolute monster when he gets going. I predict here and now that Nicolas Sarkozy will be re-elected in 2012. I know it and Agnès knows it. Nice-guy Hollande will be eaten alive in any TV debates. He's hamstrung too by the hard-left/green supporters he has to rally in the second round of voting. Not a chance in hell. The polls mean nothing and the gap is closing day by day. I'm not a fan of Sarkozy but he really is unbeatable. Put your money on it.

Absolutely. But I get the impression (albeit from my not-as-well-informed-as-I-would-like-it-to-be standpoint) that Ms Merkel is much more genuine. I might well be wrong on that, though.

Merkel is being held hostage by her coalition partner, the free democrats. They currently poll in around 2-4%. Given that there's a 5% quorum, it means they would be gone if there were elections. As such, the social democrats are unlikely to agree to a "grand coalition", knowing that snap elections would bring them into power. So the only chance Merkel has to stay in power is to save her coalition with the free democrats. As such, while her own party is split on a couple of questions regarding the crisis, she has to follow the free democrat line for the sheer fact that it's her only way to remain in charge...

This comment was removed by a moderator because it didn't abide by our community standards. Replies may also be deleted. For more detail see our FAQs.

Response to SFDP SFDP.
Marine Le Pen is very unlikely to beat either Hollande or Sarkozy.She'll probably be quite successful,but not that successful.The thing that really changed in France is that the French more and more give in to populism and that the dogmatic left is more and more unpopular.The political "élite" and journalists don't understand the people any more.The extreme left and the extreme right draw votes because of that.And rather unexpectedly Mélencon(far lelt)sounds very much like Marine Le Pen.But neither Mélenchon nor Le Pen really want to win.What they want is to influence the winners,and that won't be easy.

i'm not a fan of Sarkozy at all. The impression i get of him is of a cunning opportunist who's out for himself. I also disagree with his politics and i hope he loses, but i wouldn't expect him to resign before the next election. Elections are unpredictable and some voters usually go back to the government during the election campaign.

I don't think anyone can say Hollande is certain to lose either though. Apart from Hollande leading in the polls by 20 points - which should be more than enough to retain a lead in the election - Sarkozy wants to scrap the 35 hour week, which is hugely popular in France. Plus Sarkozy is the incumbent during a recession which has been made worse by his austerity policies, leading to 2.84 million French people unemployed and more expected in the New Year.

Doesn't sound very convincing to me.

Given that the FDP has seen its support collapese from 14% at the last elections to about 3% now, while Merkel's CDU has held steady at 33% - 35% it would be the FDP who would be the surefire losers in any elections, possibly not reaching 5% needed to survive in the Bundestag as you concede, while the CDU at worst would go into opposition.

Since the CDU is more centrist (at least economically) if they tack to the right to please FDP supporters then they risk alienating their own more moderate supporters who could swwitch to the SPD or the Greens.

As such Merkel can easily dare the FDP not to go along with her policies - they would be the ones committing suicide if they brought the government down.

Certainly seen from the UK, the Schwarz-Gelb coalition looks much less right wing than its equivalent in the UK despite the fact that the FDP are well to the right of Britain's Lib Dems.

I think you are right. No-one seems to like Sarkozy, or at least to admit it, but he's a tough nut. Hollande is no doubt a more likable sort, but insipid, just like Royale. My money is still on Sarkozy.

As a Brit living in France, may I just say that Agnes Poirier is calling it wrong as per bloody usual. Hollande is only ahead in the polls for 2 reasons: firstly, the socialist primaries attracted massive media coverage, which incidentally, all media organisations in France are now endeavouring to redress. Secondly, because yer man Sarko hasn't even started campaigning. He is an absolute monster when he gets going. I predict here and now that Nicolas Sarkozy will be re-elected in 2012. I know it and Agnès knows it. Nice-guy Hollande will be eaten alive in any TV debates. He's hamstrung too by the hard-left/green supporters he has to rally in the second round of voting. Not a chance in hell. The polls mean nothing and the gap is closing day by day. I'm not a fan of Sarkozy but he really is unbeatable. Put your money on it.

Sorry, but it's a joke to say Sarko was disadvantaged by the fact that he hasn't started campaigning - he's the bleeping incumbent. That alone should give him a huge advantage. To suggest that the socialist primaries attracted massive media coverage compared to the actions of the current head of state is a joke.

Your claim that Hollande is hamstrung by the hard-left/green supporters he would have to rally in the second round is also off - if anything, he has to rally them in the FIRST round. If he gets into the second round, he can easily recruit them by presenting himself as the only alternative they have for Sarkozy. The chief problem the PS has been having splintered voting in the left - both within the PS itself, when some parts wouldn't support the official candidate, to communist and green alternative candidates, but especially in the FIRST round, which led to the infamous advancement of Le Pen to the second round years ago. Sarkozy on the other hand has been polarizing the french society since he came into power - and more recently even his own conservative base. If anything, when push comes to shove, he might fall to the same problems the PS has been having, with de Villepin and other conservatives campaigning against him.

"A majority of the French public may not want Sarkozy as their next president, but many fear he may yet prevail. Out of sheer ruggedness."

You do not prevail out of ruggedness.

You prevail because a majority votes for you.

The question is : how will Sarkozy get enough people to vote for him?

The 'prevail' word has a lot to do with the ' tied press and TV ' that strangely French concept of free press. skillfully applied by his 'team' to use and abuse the polls, their official positions, and above all political cant, much of which is harking back to the pre 1968 era in order to cull the marginal voters who think pre-1968.

Given that the FDP has seen its support collapese from 14% at the last elections to about 3% now, while Merkel's CDU has held steady at 33% - 35% it would be the FDP who would be the surefire losers in any elections, possibly not reaching 5% needed to survive in the Bundestag as you concede, while the CDU at worst would go into opposition.

"At worst"? That would be a disaster for a CDU whose ideology has pretty much restricted itself to "getting and holding power" over the last years. Watch their complete u-turn on nuclear power after the Fukushima disaster - they drop convictions by the second if it seems politically opportune to them.

As such Merkel can easily dare the FDP not to go along with her policies - they would be the ones committing suicide if they brought the government down.

That won't work, because they'd be committing suicide either way. If they go along with her, they alienate what little voters and members they have left. At the same time, Merkel being ready to throw away power for the heck of it isn't a credible threat.

You gotta "give it to the man" he might be small /but he sure knows how to play the game! He should be on the french rugby team!

This comment was removed by a moderator because it didn't abide by our community standards. Replies may also be deleted. For more detail see our FAQs.

If the coalition endures and the economy recoveres then there is a reasonable chance that the FDP might recover to 5% + especially if some CDU voters back it - as they have in the past, but this will take time.

What the FDP collapse shows that in Germany at least, in contrast to the UK or the USA there's little taste for hard cold economic liberalism - which reflects better on Germany than on the so called "Anglo Saxon" economies, and is one reason why Germany has fared better in the current recession than either of these countries who were at one time touted about as shining examples to follow.

IF merkel goes down the route of keeping the FDP's tiny base happy she will be charging up a cul de sac, never a wise move for a party which as you say has tended to be pragmatic about staying in power.

She would alienate not just centrist voters but also potential partners like the Greens.

And don't forget that every single poll that I have seen pretty much since Merkel came to power, has shown the CDU/CSU as the mosty popular single bloc, ahead of the SPD.

I read in the l'Est Republicain today that the rate of factory closures is increasing not only in our area, but all over France. Public services are being trimmed, more and more people are on short term contracts - so Sarkozy has not performed miracles on the domestic front.

In Foreign affairs he is very much opportunist in his approach - sometimes apparently backs 'a winner' - Libya ??? (but that costs the Country dearly in financial terms without really meriting the tag 'victory')

In economic and finance matters Sarkozy is not remarkable either - a doom scenario is forecast for 2012.

And yet Sarkozy could easily win the next election, because the opposition offers few policies and the population appears to be fed up with protest which were so well supported barely a year ago. Its all a bit like the UK really - Cameron will win the next election, unless his opposition presents a viable and united set of policies themselves.

The biggest media power in France is Bouygues (TF1 among others) and Sarkozy was good for Mr Bouygues (mainly for the construction part of the business) and he taxbrakes in 2007.
If Bouygues still believes in the chances of Sarkozy, then it will be difficult for Hollande to be seen. Most of the news will be about Sarkozy.
But maybe too much Sarkozy on the telly could be his downfall. Who knows.

To be fair to Bouygues, he has received Hollande not that long ago about the official debates. So at least those will be fair. But it won't be easy.

And don't forget that every single poll that I have seen pretty much since Merkel came to power, has shown the CDU/CSU as the mosty popular single bloc, ahead of the SPD.

I've seen polls which had the CDU/CSU side-by-side with the SPD - cf http://www.infratest-dimap.de/umfragen-analysen/bundesweit/sonntagsfrage/ and last year's summer. Not the least, you have to take into account that polls have a margin of error.
But it doesn't really matter - without a majority, it's pretty meaningless.

Tell it, ma'am. Tell it like it is.