Class war, generation war, war against women, war between the regions: George Osborne's autumn statement blatantly declares itself for the few against the many. Gloves are off and gauntlets down, and the nasty party bares its teeth. Here is the re-toxified Tory party, the final curtain on David Cameron's electoral charade. No more crocodile tears for the poor, no more cant about social mobility or "the most family-friendly government" or "we're all in this together". Forget "vote blue go green", with this mockery of husky-hugging. Let the planet fry.
Exposed was the extent of pain for no gain, exactly as Keynesian economists predicted, a textbook case. Things are "proving harder than anyone envisaged", says Cameron. But precisely this was envisaged by Nobel-winning economists. Extreme austerity is causing £100bn extra borrowing, not less, while everything else shrinks – most incomes (the poorest most of all), employment, order books and exports. Pre-Christmas shopping – already discounted – heralds more imminent company collapses, and the only high street growth is in pawnbrokers, charity shops and Poundlands filling up the black gaps. For all the flurry of small announcements to kickstart business, infrastructure doesn't create jobs fast enough to replace the 710,000 more public jobs to go. The iron envelope of public spending is unchanged. Osborne learns nothing from experience.
What was missing from his list? Not one penny more was taken from the top 10% of earners. Every hit fell upon those with less not more. Fat plums ripe for the plucking stayed on the tree as the poorest bore 16% of the brunt of new cuts and the richest only 3%, according to the Resolution Foundation. Over £7bn could be harvested with 40% tax relief on higher pensions, while most earners only get 20% tax relief; £2bn should be nipped from taxing bankers' bonuses, but the bank levy announced was nothing extra. There was no mansion tax on high-value properties, though owners don't even pay their fair share of council tax, and property is greatly undertaxed compared with other countries.
Worse still, two-thirds of properties worth over £1m now change hands while avoiding all their 5% stamp duty, by using offshore company accounts. But not a word passed Osborne's lips on tax avoidance and evasion. Another 12,000 tax collectors are losing their jobs while some £25bn is evaded and £70bn avoided. In a time of national emergency, Osborne had no breath of rebuke about the responsibility of the rich not to dodge taxes, no threat to curb the culture of avoidance. Despite the High Pay Commission report on out-of-control boardroom pay – which even the Institute of Directors has called "unsustainable" – the chancellor said nothing. How adamantly he ruled out the Tobin tax on financial transactions, called for by those dangerous lefties Nicolas Sarkozy and Angela Merkel.
Instead came the great attack on public sector employees on the eve of the biggest strike in memory. This was a declaration of open class war – and war on the pay of women, 73% of the public workforce. After a three-year freeze, public pay rises are pegged at 1% for two years, whatever the inflation rate. That means this government will take at least 16% from their incomes overall. But the plan to abolish Tupe – the rule that ensures public workers are not paid less if their service is privatised – is outrageously unjust, and will lead to mighty resistance to all privatisation from senior as well as junior staff.
As bad is the plan for reduced public pay rates in poorer regions. What draws good teachers and doctors to work in hard places is the same pay with a lower cost of living. Cut public pay in the north-east or the most impoverished places and their economies will plummet, making them poorer still. This will drive a yet deeper divide between north and south.
But the direct assault on the poor is almost beyond belief. Watch how the big, powerful charities on Tuesday expressed uncharacteristic outrage. Along with the Children's Society, Save the Children is fiercer than I can ever recall, calling this "dire news for the poorest families – both in and out of work"; "A major blow", says 4Children; while Barnardo's calls it "a desperate state of affairs when the government's own analysis shows that a further 100,000 children will be pushed into poverty as a result of tax and benefits changes announced today".
That 100,000 is added to the 300,000 that the Institute for Fiscal Studies already expected to join the numbers of poor children from Osborne's previous cuts. The increase in the number of two-year-olds getting nursery schooling is excellent, but why pay for it by taking from the tax credits of those families supposed to benefit? Households that gain are commuters, higher up the scale: few in the bottom 25% have cars or use trains. Meanwhile, the young are hit, the cut in the education maintenance allowance causing fewer to attend college at 16, and there are signs of a serious fall in university applications.
Politically, how will this feel? The outrage of respected charities is telling: worms are turning. The government has deliberately and unjustly provoked the whole public sector – from headteachers to hospital cleaners. Cameron and Osborne's record for serious miscalculation is formidable – from the economic effect of their austerity to their unravelling NHS debacle and the precarious work programme.
The gap between what they say and do is now exposed. The injustice of how the pain has been shared is breath-taking. A windfall taking just one year's bank bonuses would pay for all the cuts in youth services and the EMA for the next 23 years. That's just one example. Osborne is fatally wrong on the economy, as his deficit target slips by two years in just the past eight months. But even if his straitjacket were necessary, the pain would be politically acceptable only if justly shared. The Bullingdon budget tears the last veil of deceit, leaving the nasty party naked for all to see. But every school will get its King James Bible with Michael Gove's presumptuous foreword: is prayer all that's left?
Comments
29 November 2011 8:33PM
Oh, thank God you're back!
29 November 2011 8:34PM
Welcome back Polly,this was as you say an unapologetic attack on the poor with a polite nod to the 1%.
I thought Edd Balls did very well in pointing out how ludicrous the coalition is on the economy.
29 November 2011 8:34PM
Osbourne is clearly a Feudal Lord.
29 November 2011 8:38PM
In fact this was worse than you point out, together with watering down the TUPE laws and paying them nothing and undermining their pensions this is the foundation for another massive tax grab by the private sector as it eats ever more into our values of decency.
29 November 2011 8:39PM
George has already pencilled in more austerity...in order to meet the deficit reduction target he said he would hit by following the present spending squeeze.
The spiral has begun...
29 November 2011 8:39PM
You can expect this from tories but Clegg and his chums should be ashamed that they are propping up this mess.
29 November 2011 8:40PM
For once Toynbee is right on the money (erm, perhaps that could be better put) except for one point: Osborne didn't declare war on the poor today, he and Cameron and their Tory clique did that a year or more ago.
29 November 2011 8:41PM
Does anyone remember the Big Society? What a load of c@@p!
29 November 2011 8:42PM
what about the 28bn spent per yer by HM Government on Tax Relief to pension contrubitions paid each year?
29 November 2011 8:42PM
Why wasn't anyone like Polly invited onto any news channel today?
Everyone was too nice to call out Osborne fully for the failure he is.
29 November 2011 8:43PM
Dear Polly, did you ever consider asking the question why?
Labour took office in a time of sharply delcining borrowing with alimited if non existent structral deficit, steady growth, falling unemployment,stable inflation rates, low levels of personal debt and so on ad bloody nauseum. Now fast forward 13 years.
Do you think that if Osborne et al had the same economic conditions that Brown and Blair had when they took office they'd be doing the same things just because they're sociopathic?
You ask is prayer all that's left? Well, as Liam Byrne said 'there's no more money left- ; sorry' so perhaps it is.
29 November 2011 8:43PM
Good luck tomorrow to anyone striking.
29 November 2011 8:43PM
It's only for so long that the vast majority of people is going to allow this to go on you know.
How long do you think people are going to stand and let themselves be bled dry?
We need a socialist programme.
29 November 2011 8:44PM
It's time to stop pretending these posh boys are stupid, they no exactly what they are doing, enriching themselves and their mates at the expense of the rest of us.
This is class war and as always it's the upper classes that start it and wage it the most viciously.
29 November 2011 8:46PM
I wonder how many young people have now got their hearts set on becoming nurses, teachers and doctors?
Osborne has in one fell swoop contributed to the next teacher shortage, the next medical personel shortage and throughly pissed off anyone who wasn't yet sure if striking tomorrow was the right thing to do.
I hate this administration and everything they stand for.
29 November 2011 8:46PM
They'll lose this time though.
The tories are hurting too many of the middle and working class who still vote Conservative in the south.
29 November 2011 8:47PM
I may have many differences with New Labour but Darlings plan seems more credible the more this lot seem to get it wrong.
Borrowing money in order to prove an already failed ideology will somehow come good is just fantasy.
29 November 2011 8:47PM
Spot on Polly-you could have also pointed out the nerve of Gove and Maude in accusing trade unions of wanting a battle. We all know now who wants to have a war. Same old tories-same old lies.
29 November 2011 8:49PM
With two eton schoolboys running the country we are all doomed.The only strikes to effect these two would be a chauffeurs and maids strike.
29 November 2011 8:49PM
We all knew it was coming. Osborne's job is not to actually do anything that makes socioeconomic sense (which he wouldn't know if it slapped him in the face, surely that's onvious). He's just meant to hold the country down while it gets stripped to the bone.
By dawn tomorrow there'll be 500 posts here telling us to suck it up, at least we're not in Somalia, if we don't like why don't we move to North Korea, yada yada yada...
29 November 2011 8:50PM
Golly Polly you make it sound as though when George Osborne is finally captured and put in a zoo the sign on his cage should read "Osborne Sociopathus." I think you're probably right!
29 November 2011 8:51PM
I've ground my teeth down to bloodied stumps. Osborne is digging us all into oblivion.
Welcome back Polly.
29 November 2011 8:51PM
Polly you have hit the nail on the head .
how do they sleep at night , nasty describes this lot perfectly .
29 November 2011 8:51PM
Hurray! Polly, you are back. Missed you. The man Osborne is a disgrace.
I am disgusted with the cruelty of this government.
29 November 2011 8:51PM
I think the government have lost the support of the police and would not be surprised if they downed tools tomorrow and joined the march.
29 November 2011 8:52PM
Well said. These Bullingdon boys haven't a fcking clue what life is like in the real world.
29 November 2011 8:53PM
They pretend to be sypathetic, listening, new Tories with a heart. It makes me sick.
In reality they think of these public servants and their families as numbers, not people. They are harsh and cruel and they have no humanity.
29 November 2011 8:54PM
Let sunshine rule the day!
29 November 2011 8:54PM
I share your optimism but don't want to be complacent. This is going to be a hard fight, and there is no guarantee that it will end with a normal transition of government. Nobody can say now that western democracy is anything other than a sham. A vote even for social democracy will not be tolerated by the "markets", so the question will become what do we do when confronted with the full force of the state?
29 November 2011 8:54PM
I've you're going to revert to reverse snobbery at least get your facts right; Osborne was at St Pauls, which despite the Guardian's piece today is not exactly comprehensive, Clegg is another OB of St P's.
But hey maybe if they were at Fettes & Nottingham High School it would all be ok.
29 November 2011 8:55PM
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29 November 2011 8:55PM
Class war? Seriously?
29 November 2011 8:56PM
Polly - you're back!!!
Sorry haven't read your article - just so happy to see you. Hope the you know who's don't realise you're back so you can have a hate fest free thread and all will be well.
Shhhh - no-one let them know.
29 November 2011 8:57PM
So, according to Gary Gibbon on Channel 4 news tonight, (and an almost hilarious interview of Beaker off the Muppets - sorry Chief Secretary to the Treasury Danny Alexander - with Jon Snow), the fiscal sadists of the coalition will be running on the same platform come the election and for 2 years post election.
What a horror story!! :-o
The death blow of the Lib Dem party looms up. No more posts in Govt for Clegg, Beaker or Vince.
Tory lies permeating the Lib Dem party from top to bottom. Watch it split.
29 November 2011 8:57PM
Good to see you back Polly, without you the Guardian looks increasingly like a LibDem propaganda sheet.
Osborne, Cameron and Clegg's real agenda is to wind back all the gains of the last 60 years for 99% of the population, that's the very reason they tricked their way into power.
And here's the truly terrible news --- the economic troubles make it easier for them to achieve these goals. They aren't blind to the social consequences of carrying on with their original slash and burn plan, those consequences are their plan and have been from day one.
And naturally the cabinet of multi-millionaires and their families won't personally suffer at all.
When is everyone going to realise that Cameron and Clegg cheated the electorate in order to bring about a right-wing coup and we are now witnessing their agenda.
29 November 2011 8:57PM
Surely any reduction of the public sector is good for everyone, including the poor? Raise the starting rate at which the poor pay tax, do away with the tier of bureacracy that distributes tax credits, and use the savings to raise the rate at which the poor pay tax again. Reduce, eliminate or privatise the collection of employers NI, to either make it fit for purpose (ie decent pensions for all) or end the tax on jobs. Lots of benefits to be had by reducing the bloated dead hand of the state, not least reducing the massive overhead of public sector pensions
29 November 2011 8:57PM
Uncharacteristic? If they had not had the outrage tap stuck at full spurt for as long as I can remember I might pay more attention.
29 November 2011 8:58PM
As Louis Althusser said, the state as a last resort will use Coercive State Apparatus (the army and police) to hold back dissent and keep the dominant ruling class in power. Usually they don't need to as ideologically they keep people down. But that doesn't seem to be working now.
If the police joined the march then I think Cameron et al will be on the first flight out of Brize Norton to a tropical tax haven. Planes have continually been on standby there for his ilk since 1940.
29 November 2011 8:58PM
I agree the banks should sort out their bonus schemes but I'm not convinced a windfall tax is the best option.
That is just nonsense. The poor were shafted by the banks, but cleaning up the mess was always going to be painful. The Euro debacle and problems in Japan and the US are not helping and no budget would have been nice. You have gone way O.T.T. with your response.
Thank you for stating it correctly and not calling it "the abolition".
29 November 2011 8:59PM
Nope, Westminster...facts and all that
29 November 2011 8:59PM
I would. An astounding capacity for doublethink seems to be the primary job requirement for a street cop. Look at the jackasses in uniform in NY and Oakland.
29 November 2011 8:59PM
Read the troll comments. The right-wing and their politians don't see where the road they've picked leads to.
They think the overthrowing of governments only happens in eastern Europe.
29 November 2011 8:59PM
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29 November 2011 9:00PM
@zapthecrap
Notice how he was careful not to mention police pay rises and caps to police pensions. He may well have need of them to protect him and his mates from the Bullingdon Club - I reckon he will keep them onside.
How about director's pay is pegged back at 1% for the next 4 years?
No way - they have their snouts too deeply in the trough.
I hate this administration and everything they stand for.
29 November 2011 9:00PM
Polly, it isn't as bad as you describe: it's far worse. Looking at the small print Georgie boy has pencilled in massive public spending cuts from 2015 onwards, he would have completely failed to meet his self-imposed fiscal targets otherwise. It will only be after the nest election that we find out just how much worse it is going to get.
29 November 2011 9:00PM
Thanks Polly for your observations and comments about today's debacle.
Pity there isn't a Party in Parliament, that I can believe in, to seriously challenge the Coalition. But there are tens of millions of people in Britain who are getting shafted by Cameron, Osbourne & Co - and you can do something about it. Get out on the street tomorrow and express your anger and make your demands heard.
29 November 2011 9:01PM
Polly Toynbee is something of a phenomenon on Cif, and I am more interested in why there is a scramble to comment on her articles than on the articles themselves.
You'll have to forgive me for intruding on this thread, I apologise, but I personally think it's interesting and will go away and think about it.
29 November 2011 9:01PM
Well said. This was what leaped out at me this afternoon. And the knock on effect will be less spending in regional economies, presumably resulting in falling private sector wages and / or employment.
I understand that certain kinds of politicians couldn't give two figs for the less well off 90% of us... but who do they think is going to keep lining their mates' pockets when none of us have got any bloody money to spend?
Even the good news on infrastructure will most likely turn out to be hogwash. Seems to me he just expects the private sector to magic up the vast bulk of the money he is claiming to be planning to spend. I wonder how that will work out... can you imagine the howls of outrage if Brown had pulled a similar stunt?
29 November 2011 9:03PM
You do realise what usually happens in any country where the gap between rich and poor is so vast?
29 November 2011 9:03PM
ooops of course, I got my minor schools mixed up. Floreat etc