Alex Salmond's spell could swing it for Scottish independence

Scotland's first minister is so dominant that by sheer force of personality he may realise his most cherished political dream

Alex Salmond Retains His Post As First Minister
Alex Salmond after the SNP's landslide election victory last May. Photograph: Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images

You should hear what Alex Salmond's enemies say about him, behind his back. "He's the consummate political operator," says one opponent of Scotland's first minister from his vantage point in another party. "Articulate, charismatic, with a particular ability to conjure up a phrase that captures the public mood. Where he's especially good is in talking to the UK audience, sounding like the reasonable voice of Scotland. He was on The One Show the other day and I bet English people were watching it thinking, 'If only we had a politician standing up for us the way Alex Salmond stands up for the Scots'." Such is the damning assessment of one of those dedicated to removing Salmond from office.

Not that that front-rank Scottish politician is deluded enough to think his party has a chance of toppling Salmond from the pinnacle of Scottish politics any time soon. And pinnacle is no overstatement. The Scottish National party was re-elected in a landslide in May, winning the very overall majority Scotland's electoral system was designed to render impossible. Salmond's party is united and disciplined behind him, and his putative rivals trail far behind in the opinion polls, mere minnows to his shark. This week the Times anointed him Briton of the Year, a surprising accolade for a man who does not readily describe himself as a Briton at all. To my mind, Salmond has long been the most naturally gifted political performer in these islands, unchallenged for that title since the departure from the scene of Tony Blair. Even in Blair's day, Salmond came very close.

What's his secret? He has intellect, a former Royal Bank of Scotland economist's grasp of numbers and a wide hinterland that enables him to talk confidently about nationalism and its place in the forward march of history. He learned long ago the Ronald Reagan maxim that the successful politician owns optimism and the future. Successive election campaigns have boiled down to one essential theme: that there is no limit to Scotland's possibilities. Indeed, "Yes, we can" was the SNP slogan in 1997, long before anyone had heard of Barack Obama.

As for that knack with an easily understood phrase, it has not deserted him. Criticising George Osborne's economic policy – earlier than most – Salmond said Scotland needed a "plan McB". Cheesy perhaps, but memorable. He is also skilled in the low arts of politics, cunning enough to have pulled off that hardest of tricks, the comeback. He quit the leadership in 2000 amid some mystery – only to roar back into the top job four years later. That break apart, he has led the SNP since 1990, a more than two-decade tenure of positively North Korean duration (indeed one that outstripped Kim Jong-il).

Experience is perhaps his biggest asset. The new leader of the Scottish Conservatives, Ruth Davidson, was 12 when Salmond, 57 on Saturday, first led his party. Labour's new boss, Johann Lamont, is older than Davidson but she too has only a fraction of Salmond's experience and none of his profile. None of the leaders of the other main parties in Scotland "is even in his league", one opposition politician admits.

Is this absence of serious rivals the cause or consequence of Salmond's dominance? A similar question attended Blair in his pomp too. Was Blair merely lucky to face a series of dud Tory challengers – Hague, IDS, Howard – or was the lack of talent among his opponents a function of his supremacy, a reflection of the fact that his adversaries had no idea how to oppose him? In Salmond's case, there is hard evidence for the latter view. He has challenged them to come up with a second question to appear on the ballot paper when Scots vote in the promised referendum on independence. They have not, so far, responded, reducing their role to that of mere naysayers to independence: the parties of no.

The more dominant he becomes, the more dominant he is likely to remain. Scottish Labour, for example, might stand a better chance if one of its former UK cabinet ministers took over. But Douglas Alexander, Jim Murphy and others have probably concluded that the prospects of Labour taking power in Edinburgh are even gloomier than in Westminster. So they stay away, leaving the way even clearer for Salmond.

Intriguingly, the only possible obstacle Scottish political hands can see in Salmond's way is his cherished dream of independence. No matter how high the SNP climbs in the polls, public support for a Scottish break from the UK remains stubbornly pegged at about 38% or lower. If Scotland votes no, that could surely break the Salmond spell. It would certainly cause restlessness among those SNP activists who have so far accepted the leader's gradualism.

Salmond has seen the risk, of course, and plans a second question of his own, offering independence-minus, or "devo-max", a supercharged form of autonomy that stops short of a full rupture. That would surely pass. Such an outcome might even suit Salmond better than independence, for his appeal rests, in part, on his status as the underdog, the plucky (Scottish) man against the mighty (London) machine. All-powerful first minister he may be but, as long as he is campaigning for independence, rather than achieving it, this appeal remains intact. For Salmond, truly the journey is as important as the destination.

Those of us watching from the outside, especially those who prefer a Britain that includes Scotland, are not mere observers: we have a stake in all this. Salmond's dominance means that, when the referendum battle is finally joined, defenders of the union will have no voice to match that of the independence campaign. The Scottish Labour, Tory and Lib Dem leaders are too weak to head the 'no' effort. Some suggest a figure outside politics – Alex Ferguson? – or an elder statesman, such as Gordon Brown. But both bring complications. This is a more pressing question than it might seem. Salmond has promised a ballot by 2015. As things stand, despite the polls, there is at least a chance that it could be settled in favour of independence by sheer force of personality. Salmond may be the Times's choice of a great Briton, but his ferocious talent could yet prove to be Great Britain's undoing.


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Comments

1661 comments, displaying oldest first

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  • uncleHARRIE

    28 December 2011 8:06PM

    us in the south are keeping our fingers crossed for him,
    good luck Alex.

  • maisiedotts

    28 December 2011 8:12PM

    Yup the wee man is a statesman he has more stature than some politicians much taller than him.

  • Haveatye

    28 December 2011 8:14PM

    Let's hope it comes soon. I can't wait to see the backs of the Tories for ever.

  • borleg

    28 December 2011 8:15PM

    Can we have our Mc Money back from RBS please.

  • oresme

    28 December 2011 8:15PM

    He is such a vain creature. But he could finish the British labour party forever. It would be great news.

  • maisiedotts

    28 December 2011 8:16PM

    @ Jonathan Freedland

    Err you forgot the Reform Scotland poll today which puts support for Independence at 62%.

  • Contributor
    EvaWilt

    28 December 2011 8:17PM

    None of the leaders of the other main parties in Scotland "is even in his league", one opposition politician admits.

    And not by miles - he's way out ahead. The Scottish Labour Party has been a disaster in the past few years and Iain Gray was just embarrassing to watch. And I'm not seeing anyone in the wings waiting to take him on either.

  • MarcusMoore

    28 December 2011 8:18PM

    Alex always comes across as affable, knowledgeable, quick-witted, warm-hearted and caring: as authentic a fellow human being as you will find among the political classes.

    Perhaps that's why he stands head and shoulders above his contemporaries.

  • lindalusardi

    28 December 2011 8:18PM

    can the north and wales join your independent scotland aswell? sounds quite nice being shut of the tories, middle england, the daily mail, the tabloids and the bankers etc etc etc

  • Berchmans

    28 December 2011 8:20PM

    ## He is such a vain creature##


    You are so wrong. .He is the only genuine pacifist leader in Europe. I wish him well and the article made me miss Scotland and her wonderful people. I wish them well.

    B

  • maisiedotts

    28 December 2011 8:20PM

    Vain? No his first loyalty is to Scotland he isn't personally vain, but don't insult Scotland he's rip your heart out with his tongue.

    Labour yes that could go, watch the local council elections particularly in Glasgow this coming May, the Tories and LibDems are already irrelevant in Scotland.

  • cymraeg147

    28 December 2011 8:21PM

    I hope Wales will follow suit and break from England. We hardly ever vote Tory so why should we have to put up with them.

  • TheKingofArmley

    28 December 2011 8:21PM

    Having spent three years studying Politics at the University of Liverpool in the 1980s and then immediately moving to Spain to teach English I am fully aware of the divisive nature of nationalism and the easy answers to complex economic problems that nationalism seems to provide.

    Due to our inherited colonial past I feel that most educated people are hard wired against nationalist solutions. We do not want to see anything but a united kingdom. However, should Scotland choose to dissolve the union I believe the remnant of that union will fight tooth and nail to preserve economic benefits so I feel that issues like Scottish oil rights will be difficult to resolve.

    Although Alec Salmond seems relatively moderate in his stance, others will follow with a harder line. I doubt that 'England' will give up oil rights quite as easily as the SNP imagine.

  • uncleHARRIE

    28 December 2011 8:25PM

    I hope Wales will follow suit and break from England. We hardly ever vote Tory so why should we have to put up with them.


    and we never vote Plaid Cymru so why should we put up with you ?

  • GenHernandez

    28 December 2011 8:27PM

    Having spent three years studying Politics at the University of Liverpool in the 1980s and then immediately moving to Spain to teach English I am fully aware of the divisive nature of nationalism and the easy answers to complex economic problems that nationalism seems to provide.

    Indeed. The sensible solution would seem to be to fully integrate the UK into a European superstate, single currency and all.

    A fully federal Europe with a strong central bank is the only antidote to the complex economic problems that nationalism causes.

  • sneekyboy

    28 December 2011 8:27PM

    All-powerful first minister he may be but, as long as he is campaigning for independence, rather than achieving it, this appeal remains intact.

    I think that this is the wishful thinking part of the Unionist cabal...

    To believe that Salmond would not give his all for Independence or that he secretly prefers to stay in the union. These are quite plainly unrealistic expectations.

    Devo Plus / Max or even Full Fiscal Autonomy (FFA) will never be granted by Westminster as they would then face similar calls from the other countries in the Union. They may eventually offer to put it on the ballot paper but it is a red herring that they can renege on later once the vote is cast.

    Salmond knows this and can sit back and let Labour and the lib dems try to come up with a Devo Max option for the ballot. If they :-

    a) Fail to add one then they are lumped in with campaigning with the tories. A thankless task that will finish them domestically north of the border.

    b) Add the Devo Max option and dont adhere to it once votes are cast then they will have pissed off the Scots and the referendum can be declared void as the devo max option was never real.

    c) Add Devo Max and deliver on their promises. This will give more power to Scotland, thereby making the final push to full independence less scary to bring over voters as part of an incremental progression approach.

    The unionists have let themselves get boxed into this one and they cannot get out of it. NO-ONE wants the Status Quo so however this goes the transfer of more powers to Scotland is certain.

  • Celtiberico

    28 December 2011 8:29PM

    I would be very intrigued to see what results the European financial crisis might have on Scotland - a wave of English Euroscepticism demanding secession from the EU might well prove to Salmond's advantage, if he could provoke a pro-European reaction north of the Border. We shall have to wait and see, but I certainly wouldn't write off Scots independence in the next decade or so - major economic & financial crises have historically had a tendency to end up altering the boundaries of polities.

  • Spike501

    28 December 2011 8:29PM

    Scotland can not afford independence - on its own it cannot afford the military spend required to protect it from a historically aggressive neighbour that has a recent record in invading oil rich countries.

  • sneekyboy

    28 December 2011 8:30PM

    Now Now borleg...

    I'll cut you a deal.

    You can have the money back from bailing out RBS (Which would be any loss on the shares bought when they are sold, so not as scary as is made out) but Scotland gets back the Taxes that have been paid to westminster by the bank for the last 300 years.

    There...

    That's a fair deal then. It will be like the RBS never existed in England.

  • primusinterspares

    28 December 2011 8:32PM

    How is the national debt to be divided up then? And what happens to HBOS and RBS?

  • TheKingofArmley

    28 December 2011 8:33PM

    Dear Maisie dots,

    That is my argument exactly.

    You think the oil is yours but i think the London Parliament will dis that!

  • TheGreatCucumber

    28 December 2011 8:34PM

    I would be very intrigued to see what results the European financial crisis might have on Scotland - a wave of English Euroscepticism demanding secession from the EU might well prove to Salmond's advantage, if he could provoke a pro-European reaction north of the Border.


    Big if there. I haven't seen much indication that Scots and any more pro-European than anyone else in the UK. Any polls I've seen have generally put them as being just as Eurosceptic as English people. I agree with you that there's certainly a realistic possibility of Scotland becoming independent but I think that would come about as a result of Tory mismanagement rather than any love for the EU.

  • hollygoeslightly

    28 December 2011 8:35PM

    ''Having spent three years studying Politics at the University of Liverpool in the 1980s and then immediately moving to Spain to teach English I am fully aware of the divisive nature of nationalism''

    With all due respect that has bugger all to do with politics in Scotland.

    The SNP are an outward looking pro-immigration & internationalist party. People who support the SNP merely wish to rejoin the world as an independent nation with a sovereign government. Unfortunately at the moment we are drowned out by the larger country in the union which has a tendency to vote for politicians (& I include Tony Blair here) who do not command support in Scotland.

    That is a fairly untenable situation & one that does not look to be resolveable without constitutional change.

  • Keepsafe

    28 December 2011 8:37PM

    I envy the Scots. If I had the chance to escape the evil maw of the English Tories I would take it in a heartbeat.

    Salmond might just the man with the rope ladder who will lead the way over the wall of the Tory workhouse.

    But there's a small part of me that flinches from adulation of the man. Remember St Tony of Blair and St Vincent of Cable...

    Think carefully ye Scots, think carefully!

  • Contributor
    MetalDad

    28 December 2011 8:38PM

    The SNP have been talking up independence for years and years and years.

    Isn't it time just to ask the Scottish people if they want to go and, if so, just let them? There has been so much whinging for so long - perhaps it's time to see if the politicians really do speak for the people, or are they just in it for themselves with their own pipe dreams of power?

    Certainly there would be a huge, huge cost to the effort and changes needed to seperate the countries, but thankfully Gormless Brown has already helped that agenda along by establishing a practice parliament .

    Then again, he saw no problems with Scottish MPs being abe to vote on English issues, but not the other way round, and he was also amazed that setting up a duplicate parliament in Scotland should be seen as a move to accelerate the breakup of the UK.

    Personally, I think it would be a shame. For all the petty moaning north and south of the border, the English and the Scots still have far more in common and far more joint interests than they do fundamental differences...

  • Rich1991

    28 December 2011 8:38PM

    i hope not. id rather we focused on purging England of tories, negating the need for you to leave us. Scotland isnt bad, i have ancestry from there. It wouldnt like the tories if they drove you away.

  • hollygoeslightly

    28 December 2011 8:39PM

    I would not let the question of the oil dominate the argument if I was you. Scotland would have an SNP & an independence movement even if the oil did not exist.

    Although obviously it does. There is international law which governs these things, I don't envisage war breaking out. I doubt that London will want to do an oil grab - that would make it a rogue state.

  • sneekyboy

    28 December 2011 8:40PM

    You think the oil is yours but i think the London Parliament will dis that!

    And I think the International treaties on maritime borders that as successor states both Scotland and England will remain tied to will apply...

    under the threat of international sanctions no less.

    Do you really think that having just lost Scotland, Westminster will want to pick a fight with the UN?

  • reallyanavatar

    28 December 2011 8:42PM

    offering independence-minus, or "devo-max"

    The Scottish government can not offer devo-max. It can offer to negotiate with the rest of the UK to achieve devo-max. The Scots quite rightly have sole say over full succession; funnily enough they do NOT have sole say over the distribution of power, authority, tax raising and so on within the UK.

    The English will expect more English control of English institutions if Scotland negotiates for more autonomy within the UK. The West Lothian Question is barely tenable now and will be utterly impossible to sustain with more autonomy for Scotland.

    As an Englishman I want devo-max for Scotland so your cabal of Labour MPs is removed from English government forever. But this can not be delivered by Edinburgh, only by London.

  • JennieKermode

    28 December 2011 8:42PM

    Polls show again and again that the majority of Scots want further devolution, so any poll that offered a sraight option between independence or the (less popular) status quo would risk disenfranchising the people.

    To make assessments based on polling figures alone is risky. What we do not, at this stage, have adequate data to assess is what percentage of each group would actually come out to vote in a referendum. Salmond's campaign is perceived as having momentum and that, in combination with the promise of change, is likely to prove a more succesful strategy for getting ticks in boxes than is a largely negative campaign against change, regardless of overall preferences. Supporters of independence will want to be part of the moment so are less likely to be apathetic than those persuaded to feel that history is against them.

  • FirmbutFair

    28 December 2011 8:42PM

    Good luck to him

    To be honest the break up of the UK is probably now England's only hope, of growing out of all of this Camronite cobblers and becoming a modern, civilised mid sized nation, no better or worse than anywhere elese in Europe.

    No country is pathological by nature. England could yet surprise us all... It just needs a mighty kick up the arse, as many other countries have in the past.

  • TheGreatCucumber

    28 December 2011 8:42PM

    under the threat of international sanctions no less.


    Internation sanctions would have to go through the UN security council, where we hold a veto.

    Though I agree that war breaking out over it would be implausible.

  • Fainche

    28 December 2011 8:43PM

    No matter how high the SNP climbs in the polls, public support for a Scottish break from the UK remains stubbornly pegged at about 38% or lower

    I'd argue that that percentage will move in favour of Independence as Cameron and Gideon continue with their austerity programme. Every time I see Salmond being interviewed or taking part in Q&A's I envy Scotland, I just wish we had someone like him in opposition, although I'd bet that Cameron gives thanks that we don't.

  • IndieScot

    28 December 2011 8:44PM

    Scottish nationalism is left-wing and is about progressive internationalism. Whereas Unionist nationalism is about the imperalist, right-wing traditions of the past.

  • Haveatye

    28 December 2011 8:44PM

    I don't envisage war breaking out. I doubt that London will want to do an oil grab - that would make it a rogue state.

    I can just see it. Salmond as the Scottish Gaddafi. I think Cameron and Haig would get away with that quite easily.

  • reallyanavatar

    28 December 2011 8:44PM

    You have the right of free movement and employment throughout the EU and EEA. Don't like it that much? You can always move somewhere else; presumably including Scotland either before or after independence.

  • hollygoeslightly

    28 December 2011 8:47PM

    Scotland does not inflict Labour governments on England. The last three Labour governments had a majority of seats - in England.

    British general elections are decided in the key marginals in England which change hands. You can't blame us for New Labour, they were created to appeal to middle England.

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