Energy Impacts & Adaptation

Climate Impacts on Energy

Changes in temperature, precipitation, sea level, and the frequency and severity of extreme events will likely affect how much energy is produced, delivered, and consumed in the United States.

Energy plays an important role in many aspects of our lives. For example, we use electricity for lighting and cooling. We use fuel for transportation, heating, and cooking. Our energy production and use is interconnected with many other aspects of modern life, such as water consumption, use of goods and services, transportation, economic growth, land use, and population growth. Our production and use of energy (most of which comes from fossil fuels) also contributes to climate change, accounting for more than 80% of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions. ^[1]

Top of page

Temperature, Energy Demand, and Energy Supply

Increases in temperature will likely change how much energy we consume, as well as our ability to produce electricity and deliver it reliably.

• In a warmer climate, Americans would use more electricity for air conditioning and less natural gas, oil, and wood for heating. If the nation's climate warms by 1.8°F, the demand for energy used for cooling would increase by about 5-20%, while the demand for energy used for heating would decrease by about 3-15%. ^[2] Heating demand would decrease the most in the northern United States, and cooling demand would increase the most in the southern United States. It is unclear how these changes would affect consumer utility bills averaged over the year, especially because significant changes in demand could require infrastructure investments or lead to reliability problems. ^[3] Changes in energy demand will likely affect greenhouse gas emissions, but the net effect depends on which energy sources are used for electricity and heating.
• Warming is likely to increase summer peak electricity demand in most regions of the United States. ^[2] Meeting increases in this peak demand could require investments in new energy infrastructure. ^[2] For example, based on a 6.3 to 9°F temperature increase, climate change could increase the need for additional electric generating capacity by roughly 10-20% by 2050. This would require hundreds of billions of dollars in additional investment. ^[3]
• A warmer climate may reduce the efficiency of power production for many existing fossil fuel and nuclear power plants because these plants use water for cooling. The colder the water, the more efficient the generator. Thus, higher air and water temperatures could reduce the efficiency with which these plants convert fuel into electricity. ^[2]

Energy demand is expected to shift by the end of the century. The number of "degree days" refers to the sum of the number of degrees that the day's average temperature is hotter or colder than 65°F over the course of a year. The number of heating degree days is expected to decrease while the number of cooling degree days is projected to increase by 2080-2099. Source: USGCRP (2009)

Top of page

Water Availability and Energy

View enlarged image

Water and energy flows. Source: U.S. DOE (PDF)

Energy and water systems are connected. Energy is needed to pump, transport, and treat drinking water and wastewater. Cooling water is needed to run many of today's power plants. Hydroelectricity (electricity produced by running water) is itself an important source of power in some parts of the United States.

Changes in precipitation, increased risk of drought, reduced snowpack, and changes in the timing of snowmelt in spring will likely influence our patterns of energy and water use. For example:

• Power plants can require large amounts of water for cooling. On average, a kilowatt-hour of electricity (enough power to run 400 typical compact-fluorescent light bulbs for an hour) requires 25 gallons of water to be withdrawn from rivers or lakes. ^[3] Parts of the Southeast and Southwest face increased competition for water to meet the demands of population and economic growth while also protecting natural ecosystems. Consequently, these regions are already slowing or stopping plans for new power plants that require large withdrawals of water due to concerns about adequate availability of cooling water. ^[2] A few power plants rely mainly on air for cooling, but that technology is often more expensive and uses more energy than water-cooled plants.
• More frequent and severe heat waves will likely increase the demand for electricity in the Southeast and Southwest. At the same time, these areas are likely to experience reduced water supplies due to decreased rain and/or increased temperature and evaporation. Since water is necessary for electricity production, these combined effects could stress water resources. For more information about climate change impacts in the Southeast and Southwest, please visit the Southeast Impacts & Adaptation and Southwest Impacts & Adaptation pages.
• Hydroelectric power plants are sensitive to the volume and timing of stream flows. Along the Colorado River, a 1% reduction in stream flow can reduce electricity output by roughly 3%, since water flows through multiple power plants in the river basin. ^[3] In some regions, especially during times of increased rainfall, dams may have to modify their operations to prevent downstream flooding. ^[3] Maintaining stream flow for hydroelectric dams could present conflicts with other activities, such as salmon habitat restoration in the Pacific Northwest. ^[4]
• Growing crops for biomass and biofuel energy could stress water resources in certain regions, depending on the type of crop, where it is grown, agricultural production in the region, and current water and nutrient management practices. ^[5] Given the many factors involved, more research is needed to understand how climate change may affect these resources. ^[2]
• Rising temperatures, increased evaporation, and drought may increase the need for energy-intensive methods of providing drinking and irrigation water. For example, desalinization plants can convert salt water into freshwater, but consume a lot of energy. Climate change may also require irrigation water to be pumped over longer distances, particularly in dry regions across the western United States. ^[3]

For more information about the impacts of climate change on water resources, please visit the Water Impacts & Adaptation page.

Top of page

Sea Level Rise, Storm Surge, and Extreme Events

Before and after photographs of the "Mars" offshore drilling and production platform, damaged by Hurricane Katrina in the Gulf of Mexico. Source: CCSP (2008) (PDF)

View enlarged image

Power plants susceptible to sea level rise in Florida. The bar graph shows the percent of operating plant capacity potentially impacted by several sea level rise scenarios. Source: CCSP (2008) (PDF)

A large portion of U.S. energy infrastructure is located in coastal areas and therefore sensitive to sea level rise and storm surge. For example, fuel ports and the generation and transmission lines that bring electricity to major urban coastal centers are at risk. Changes in the frequency and severity of storms and other extreme events may also damage energy infrastructure.

Disruptions to energy supply due to compromised infrastructure can affect many activities, depending on the destination and final use of the fuel. Coal is used primarily to generate electricity, so disruptions in coal supplies could affect the supply of electricity. Disruptions in the supply of oil would affect the production of transportation fuels. Disruptions in natural gas supply could affect electricity generation, residential and commercial heating, and industrial processes. There are many examples of at-risk energy infrastructure in the United States.

• Several coastal power plants in the United States are less than three feet above sea level. One third of U.S. refining and gas processing capacity lies on the coastal plains next to the Gulf of Mexico. Facilities that import or export coal, gas, and oil are located in coastal regions. ^[2] Sea level rise and more intense storms and hurricanes in coastal areas could increase the risk of energy supply disruptions.
• Several thousand oil drilling platforms offshore of the Gulf Coast are vulnerable to extreme weather events. For example, Hurricane Ivan in 2004 damaged 24 platforms and Hurricanes Katrina and Rita damaged more than 100 in 2005. ^[2]
• Flooding and intense storms can damage power lines and electricity distribution equipment. These events may also delay repair and maintenance work. Electricity outages can have serious impacts on other energy systems as well. For example, oil and gas pipeline disruptions following extreme weather events are often caused by power outages rather than physical damage to the infrastructure. ^[3]
• Railways and marine transportation that move large amounts of oil and coal in the United States are also vulnerable to climate change. More intense rainfall and storms can threaten railways by washing out railway beds. Changes in precipitation could affect marine transportation by reducing the navigability of rivers.

For more information about the impacts of climate change on coastal areas, please visit the Coastal Impacts & Adaptation page.

Top of page

Wind Speed, Cloud Cover, and Renewable Energy

Climate change could impact wind and solar power, but there is little research in this area. Impacts will depend on how wind and cloud cover patterns change, which are very difficult to project using current climate models.

To learn more about how we can adapt our energy production and use to climate change, please see the Energy Adaptation section.

References

1. EPA (2010). Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2008 (PDF). U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).

2. USGCRP (2009). Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States . Karl, T.R., J.M. Melillo, and T.C. Peterson (eds.). United States Global Change Research Program. Cambridge University Press, New York, NY, USA.

3. CCSP (2007). Effects of Climate Change on Energy Production and Use in the United States . A Report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the subcommittee on Global change Research. Wilbanks, T.J., V. Bhatt, D.E. Bilello, S.R. Bull, J.Ekmann, W.C. Horak, Y.J. Huang, M.D. Levine, M.J. Sale, D.K. Schmalzer, and M.J. Scott. Department of Energy, Office of Biological & Environmental Research, Washington, DC, USA.

4. IPCC (2007). Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability . Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel. Parry, M.L., O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden, and C.E. Hanson (eds.). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom.

5.NRC (2008). Water Implications of Biofuels Production in the United States . Committee on Water Implications of Biofuels Production in the United States, National Research Council. The National Academies Press, Washington, D.C.

Top of Page

Adaptation Examples in Energy

Climate change will likely impact the production, demand, and distribution of energy. More intense storms, sea level rise, and larger storm surges may disrupt oil extraction and delivery along the coasts. Heat waves may increase peak demand for electricity, and changes in precipitation patterns may disrupt hydropower. For more information about the climate change impacts on energy, please visit the Energy Impacts section.

Energy producers and distributors, state and local governments, EPA, and the Department of Energy are promoting energy conservation and working to ensure an adequate energy supply. Specific adaptation approaches include:

• Protecting important energy production infrastructure
• Relocating critical business facilities
• Improving assessment of water supplies that can be used to produce energy
• Planting trees and promoting the use of "cool roofs" to reduce energy demands
• Creating a Smart Grid to maximize the efficiency of electricity distribution

The following case studies, examples, and related links are illustrative of adaptation measures and not intended to be comprehensive.

Energy companies protect facilities against sea level rise and storm surge in the Gulf Coast

Oil platforms, like this one in the Gulf of Mexico, are sensitive to large storms and sea level rise, which is projected to increase with climate change. Source: NASA (2008)

An important part of the U.S. energy infrastructure is concentrated in the Gulf Coast region, which is at risk from sea level rise, more intense storms, and larger storm surges due to climate change. In the near term, adaptation strategies will likely focus on increasing resistance to impacts—building and maintaining barriers that can protect coastal energy infrastructure. For example, fortifying offshore oil platforms and coastal facilities can make them more resilient to high winds, wave action, and flooding. Longer-term investment strategies for the development of new infrastructure can consider less vulnerable areas when choosing sites.

Entergy Corporation, an energy company, is engaged in a climate risk assessment to understand the potential costs of continuing to operate business-as-usual in the Gulf Coast. Following Hurricane Katrina, the company relocated important business centers inland to areas less likely to be affected by future storms. ^[1] In 2010, Entergy and the America's Wetlands Foundation commissioned a study, Building a Resilient Energy Gulf Coast (PDF), which quantifies and identifies options for managing risks associated with climate change. Based on the study, Entergy is working to build greater resilience into its assets and operations.

Top of Page

Western states assess how water shortages will impact energy production

Energy production from most fuels–including coal, natural gas, nuclear, geothermal, hydropower, and biofuel–use water. To learn more about the connection between water and energy production, see the Energy Impacts section. In one example of adaptation in this area, the Department of Energy (DOE) is working with the Western Governors' Association, the Western Electricity Coordinating Council, and the Electric Reliability Council of Texas to incorporate the likely water shortages associated with climate change as part of their energy planning efforts. The project will develop a set of regional planning models and data to support energy-water planning efforts. ^[2]

Top of Page

Federal, state, and local efforts reduce overall energy demand

Federal, state, and local efforts are underway to improve energy efficiency and energy conservation. Although these efforts may not have been designed with adaptation as their primary goal, reductions in energy demand, especially reduction in electricity demand, can make potential service disruptions less likely or less damaging. These efforts also help reduce greenhouse gas emissions that contribute to climate change. Below are some examples of energy efficiency and conservation programs:

• ENERGY STAR® is EPA's voluntary, market-based partnership program that promotes the use of energy efficient products and practices by American consumers, businesses, and organizations. Products in more that 60 different categories, over one million new homes, and tens of thousands facilities proudly carry ENERGY STAR certification.
• The federal government and utility providers are in the process of upgrading the nation's electricity transmission system to a Smart Grid. A Smart Grid will enable two-way communication between electricity consumers and providers. It will use modern technology to transmit real-time information, allocating electricity where needed and responding rapidly to demand peaks. Additionally, Smart Meters are devices that provide consumers with personalized consumption information so that they can shift their consumption accordingly.
• EPA's State and Local Climate and Energy Program provides technical assistance, analytical tools, and outreach support to state, local, and tribal governments interested in mitigation and adaptation planning.
• Cities like New York, NY, Boston, MA (PDF) , and Chicago, IL are planting urban trees to increase shade and promoting the use of highly reflective roofs to reduce energy use from air conditioning. To learn more about reducing energy demands, visit the Northeast Impacts & Adaptation page, the Midwest Impacts & Adaptation page, and the Health Impacts & Adaptation page.
• EPA's Sustainable Infrastructure Program is working with partners across the water sector to provide the knowledge and tools to ensure that investments made in water infrastructure are more sustainable. Part of becoming sustainable includes ensuring that water sector systems adopt practices and technologies for improving their energy efficiency.

Top of Page

References

1. Sussman, F.G., and J.R. Freed (2008). Adapting to Climate Change: A Business Approach (PDF). Pew Center on Global Climate Change.

2.Interagency Climate Adaptation Task Force, (2011) Federal Actions for a Climate Resilient Nation: Progress Report of the Interagency Climate Change Adaptation Task Force . Interagency Climate Adaptation Task Force.

Top of Page