Trending and Forecasting

BTS performs trending, prediction, seasonal adjustment, and forecasting of transportation data. In addition, BTS forecasters also network with other federal transportation forecasters, primarily in DOT, but also in NASA, EIA and other transportation-related agencies, through quarterly meetings sponsored by BTS. Examples of current work in progress by the Trending and Forecasting team are:

• Trending of BTS data
• Seasonal adjustment and trending of data distributed by BTS
• Econometric forecasting
• Seasonal factors
• Turning points in Transportation Services Index

Publications

• BTS Special Reports
  • Data-Driven Risk Models Could Help Target Pipeline Safety Inspections - July 2008
  • Trends in Personal Income and Passenger Vehicle Miles - October 2007
  • The Transportation Services Index Shows Monthly Change in Freight and Passenger Transportation Services - September 2007
  • A Decade of Growth in Domestic Freight Rail and Truck Ton-Miles Continue to Rise - July 2007
  • Motorcycle Trends in the United States - May 2009
  • Effects of the February 2010 Snowstorms on Airline Performance - August 2010
• BTS Technical Reports
  • Transportation Services Index and the Economy - December 2007
  • Seasonal Variation in Traffic Congestion: A Study of Three U.S. Cities - August 2008
  • Uncovering Trends in Seasonal Transportation Data - May 2008
• BTS Transportation Trends in Focus
  • The Freight Transportation Service Index as a Leading Economic Indicator - September 2009
  • A Time Series Analysis of Transportation Energy Use Per Dollar of Gross Domestic Product - June 2009
  • Upward Trend in Vehicle-Miles Resumed During 2009: A Time Series Analysis - April 2010
  • Transportation Employment – January 2011

Presentations

• Workshop for Transportation Forecasters, Sept. 22-23, 2009, Washington, DC