Benchmark Article (PDF version)

BLS Establishment Estimates Revised to Incorporate March 2011 Benchmarks

Introduction

Nathan Clausen

Nathan Clausen is an economist in the Division of Current Employment Statistics, Office of Employment and Unemployment Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Telephone: (202) 691-6555; e-mail: CESInfo@bls.gov

With the release of data for January 2012, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) introduced its annual revision of national estimates of employment, hours, and earnings from the Current Employment Statistics (CES) monthly survey of nonfarm establishments.  Each year, the CES survey realigns its sample-based estimates to incorporate universe counts of employment − a process known as benchmarking.  Comprehensive counts of employment, or benchmarks, are derived primarily from unemployment insurance (UI) tax reports that nearly all employers are required to file with State Workforce Agencies.

Summary of the benchmark revisions

The March 2011 benchmark level for Total nonfarm employment is 130,061,000; this figure is 162,000 above the sample-based estimate for March 2011, an adjustment of 0.1 percent. Table 1 shows the total nonfarm percentage benchmark revisions for the past ten years.

Table 2 shows the nonfarm employment benchmarks for March 2011, not seasonally adjusted, by industry. The majority of super sectors had upward revisions, with the exception of Mining and logging, Construction, Information, Education and health services, and Other services. The largest upward revision occurred in Professional and business services, 125,000, or 0.7 percent. Within this sector, the revision was concentrated in Temporary help services, which revised by 47,400 or 2.1 percent. Trade, transportation, and utilities had an upward revision of 95,000 or 0.4 percent, driven mostly by Retail trade, which revised upward 83,800 or 0.6 percent. Within Retail trade, there were a series of large offsetting revisions; Warehouse clubs and supercenters revised up 45,200 or 3.9 percent and Discount department stores revised up 39,300 or 4.1 percent, while Family clothing stores revised down -64,200 or -15.3 percent. Leisure and hospitality revised upward by 93,000 or 0.7 percent, with the largest upward revision of 76,000 or 0.8 percent in Food services and drinking places. Financial activities revised upward by 69,000 or 0.9 percent. Government and manufacturing each had upward revisions of 0.1 percent or 28,000 and 9,000 respectively.

Five sectors saw negative revisions. The largest downward revision occurred in Other services,-108,000, or -2.0 percent. Within Other services, large percentage downward revisions were seen in Miscellaneous professional and similar organizations, down 42,200 or 28.8 percent, and Grantmaking foundations, down 35,100 or 38.3 percent revision. Education and health services also had a -108,000 or -0.5 percent downward revision, concentrated mostly in Vocational rehabilitation services which had a -81,700 or -24.1 percent revision. Construction revised down 26,000 or 0.5 percent. Smaller revisions were in Information, revising down 12,000 or 0.4 percent, and Mining and logging, revising down 3,000 or 0.4 percent.

Revisions in the post-benchmark period

Post-benchmark period estimates from April 2011 to December 2011 were calculated for each month based on new benchmark levels. Also, beginning in April, model-based estimates for the net birth/death employment were revised to incorporate information from the most recent year of universe employment counts. Table A shows the net birth/death model figures for the supersectors over the post-benchmark period. From April 2011 to December 2011, the cumulative net birth/death model added 677,000, compared with 600,000 in the previously published April to December estimates.

Text Table A. Net Birth/Death Estimates, Post-Benchmark 2011 (in thousands)
Month Mining & Logging Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, & Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional & Business Services Education & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Monthly Amount Contributed

2011

April

 1 24 -6 5 2 -7 58 16 72 7 172

May

 2 37 7 25 4 8 26 18 76 8 211

June

 2 22 4 12 1 5 20 -7 77 5 141

July

 2 -6 -8 -12 -2 -6 2 4 38 -7 5

August

 2 7 4 13 4 2 20 15 19 3 89

September

 1 3 0 8 1 -3 -8 12 -38 -2 -26

October

 2 2 -2 27 3 14 52 49 -35 4 116

November

 0 -16 0 1 2 1 0 4 -21 -1 -30

December

 0 -22 0 4 2 9 -1 0 6 1 -1

Cumulative Total

 12 51 -1 83 17 23 169 111 194 18 677

 

Table 3 presents revised total nonfarm employment data on a seasonally adjusted basis for January through December 2011. The revised data for April 2011 forward incorporate the effect of applying the rate of change measured by the sample to the new benchmark level, as well as updated net birth/death model adjustments and new seasonal adjustment factors. Revisions to November and December also reflect incorporation of the annual CES sample update.

Changes to the CES published series

All CES series are evaluated annually for sample size, coverage, and response rates. The following series changes result from a re-evaluation of the sample and universe coverage for NAICS industries. Some small industries no longer have sufficient sample to be estimated and published separately and have been combined with other similar industries for estimation and publication purposes, as shown below. Most of the collapsed and deleted series are in the Manufacturing sector where employment has been declining over a number of years. Historical data for the series with changed scope were reconstructed to provide consistent time series.

All Employee (AE) series are published at a more detailed level than All Employee Hours and Earnings, Production Employee, Women Employee, or Production Employee Hours and Earnings series, collectively called Non-AE series. The Non-AE series will be sometimes unaffected or affected at a less-detailed level than the AE series. Consequently, tables are provided below for both the AE and Non-AE series.

Exhibit 1. Discontinued Employment Series
NAICS 2007 CES NAICS 2007 Tabcode CES NAICS 2007 Industry Next Highest Published Level

333611

 31-333611 Turbine and turbine generator set units Turbine and power transmission equipment (31-333600)

333618

 31-333618 Power transmission and miscellaneous engine equipment Turbine and power transmission equipment (31-333600)

311422

 32-311422 Fruit, vegetable, and specialty canning Fruit and vegetable canning and drying (32-311420)

311423

 32-311423 Dried and dehydrated food Fruit and vegetable canning and drying (32-311420)

3162

 32-316200 Footwear Leather and allied products (32-316000)

325613

 32-325613 Polishes and other sanitation goods and other surface active agents Soaps and cleaning compounds (32-325610)

 

Exhibit 2. Collapsed Employment Series
NAICS 2007 CES NAICS 2007 Tabcode CES NAICS 2007 Industry Collapsed into CES NAICS 2012 Industry

322212

 32-322212 Folding paperboard boxes Folding boxes and miscellaneous paperboard containers (32-322219)

322215

 32-322215 Miscellaneous paperboard containers Folding boxes and miscellaneous paperboard containers (32-322219)

 

Exhibit 3. Discontinued Non-AE Employment, Hours, and Earnings Series
NAICS 2007 CES NAICS 2007 Tabcode CES NAICS 2007 Industry Next Highest Published Level

3311

 31-331100 Iron and steel mills and ferroalloy production Primary metals (31-331000)

3312

 31-331200 Steel products from purchased steel Primary metals (31-331000)

332721

 31-332721 Precision turned products Turned products and screws, nuts, and bolts (31-332720)

332722

 31-332722 Bolts, nuts, screws, rivets, and washers Turned products and screws, nuts, and bolts (31-332720)

33391

 31-333910 Pumps and compressors Other general purpose machinery (31-333900)

33392

 31-333920 Material handling equipment Other general purpose machinery (31-333900)

33399

 31-333990 All other general purpose machinery Other general purpose machinery (31-333900)

334515

 31-334515 Electricity and signal testing instruments Electromedical apparatus (31-334510)

3366

 31-336600 Ship and boat building Transportation equipment (31-336000)

3369

 31-336900 Railroad rolling stock and other transportation equipment Transportation equipment (31-336000)

3152

 32-315200 Cut and sew apparel Apparel (32-315000)

31521

 32-315210 Cut and sew apparel contractors Apparel (32-315000)

3159

 32-315900 All other apparel manufacturing Apparel (32-315000)

3253

 32-325300 Agricultural chemicals Chemicals (32-325000)

3259

 32-325900 Other chemical products and preparations Chemicals (32-325000)

221121

 44-221121 Electric bulk power transmission and control Electric power transmission and distribution (44-221120)

 

Exhibit 4. Discontinued Women Employment, Hours, and Earnings Series
NAICS 2007 CES NAICS 2007 Tabcode CES NAICS 2007 Industry Next Highest Published Level

33611

 31-336110 Automobiles and light trucks Motor vehicles (31-336100)

336111

 31-336111 Automobiles Motor vehicles (31-336100)

336112

 31-336112 Light trucks and utility vehicles Motor vehicles (31-336100)

33612

 31-336120 Heavy duty trucks Motor vehicles (31-336100)

 

Exhibit 5. Discontinued Overtime Hours Series
NAICS 2007 CES NAICS 2007 Tabcode CES NAICS 2007 Industry Next Highest Published Level

3343

 31-334300 Audio and video equipment Computer and electronic products (31-334000)

3346

 31-334600 Magnetic media manufacturing and reproduction Computer and electronic products (31-334000)

334515

 31-334515 Electricity and signal testing instruments Electromedical apparatus (31-334510)

336411

 31-336411 Aircraft Aerospace products and parts (31-336400)

3369

 31-336900 Railroad rolling stock and other transportation equipment Transportation equipment (31-336000)

312

 32-312000 Beverages and tobacco products Nondurable goods (32-000000)

31321

 32-313210 Broadwoven fabric mills Fabric mills (32-313200)

316

 32-316000 Leather and allied products Nondurable goods (32-000000)

 

Why benchmarks differ from estimates

A benchmark revision is the difference between the benchmark employment level for a given March and its corresponding sample-based estimate. The overall accuracy of the establishment survey is usually gauged by the size of this difference. The benchmark revision often is regarded as a proxy for total survey error, but this does not take into account error in the universe data. The employment counts obtained from quarterly unemployment insurance tax forms are administrative data that reflect employer record-keeping practices and differing State laws and procedures. The benchmark revision can be more precisely interpreted as the difference between two independently derived employment counts, each subject to its own error sources.

Both the universe counts and the establishment survey estimates are subject to nonsampling errors common to all surveys – coverage, response, and processing errors. The error structures for both the CES monthly survey and the UI universe are complex. Still, the two programs generally produce consistent total employment figures, each validating the other. Over the last decade, annual benchmark revisions at the Total nonfarm level have averaged 0.3 percent (in absolute terms), with an absolute range of 0.1 percent to 0.7 percent.

Benchmark revisions effects for other data types

The routine benchmarking process results in revisions to the series for production and nonsupervisory workers. There are no benchmark employment levels for these series; they are revised by preserving ratios of employment for the particular data type to all employee employment prior to benchmarking, and then applying these ratios to the revised all employee figures. These figures are calculated at the basic cell level and then aggregated to produce the summary estimates. Average weekly hours and average hourly earnings are not benchmarked; they are estimated solely from reports supplied by survey respondents at the basic estimating cell level.

The aggregate industry level of the hours and earnings series is derived as a weighted average. The production or nonsupervisory employee employment estimates for the basic cells are used as weights for the hours and earnings estimates for broader industry groupings. Adjustments of the all employee estimates to new benchmarks may alter the weights, which, in turn, may change the estimates for hours and earnings of production or nonsupervisory employees at higher levels of aggregation.

Generally, new employment benchmarks have little effect on hours and earnings estimates for major groupings. To influence the hours and earnings estimates of a broader group, employment revisions have to be relatively large and must affect industries that have hours or earnings averages that are substantially different from those of other industries in their group. Table 4A and Table 4B give information on the levels of specific hours and earnings series resulting from the March 2011 benchmark. At the total private level, there was no change in average weekly hours for all employees and production and nonsupervisory employees from the previously published level. Average hourly earnings increased by 1 cent for all employees and 3 cents for production and nonsupervisory employees from the previously published level.

Methods

Benchmark adjustment procedure. Establishment survey benchmarking is done on an annual basis to a population derived primarily from the administrative file of employees covered by unemployment insurance (UI). The time required to complete the revision process – from the full collection of the UI population data to publication of the revised industry estimates – is about ten months. The benchmark adjustment procedure replaces the March sample-based employment estimates with UI-based population counts for March. The benchmark therefore determines the final employment levels, while sample movements capture month-to-month trends.

Benchmarks are established for each basic estimating cell and are aggregated to develop published levels. On a not-seasonally adjusted basis, the sample-based estimates for the year preceding and the year following the benchmark also are then subject to revision. Employment estimates for the months between the most recent March benchmark and the previous year's benchmark are adjusted using a "wedge-back" procedure. In this process, the difference between the benchmark level and the previously published March estimate for each estimating cell is computed. This difference, or error, is linearly distributed across the 11 months of estimates subsequent to the previous benchmark; eleven-twelfths of the March difference is added to February estimates, ten-twelfths to January estimates, and so on, ending with the previous April estimates, which receive one-twelfth of the March difference. The wedge procedure assumes that the total estimation error accumulated at a steady rate since the last benchmark. Applying previously derived over-the-month sample changes to the revised March level yields revised estimates for the months following the March benchmark. New net birth/death model estimates also are calculated and applied during post-benchmark estimation, and new sample is introduced from the annual update.

Benchmark source material. The principal source of benchmark data for private industries is the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW). These employment data are provided to State Employment Security Agencies by employers covered by State UI laws. BLS uses several other sources to establish benchmarks for the remaining industries partially covered or exempt from mandatory UI coverage, accounting for nearly 3 percent of the nonfarm employment total.

Data on employees covered under Social Security laws, published by the U.S. Census Bureau in County Business Patterns, are used to augment UI data for industries not fully covered by the UI scope, such as Nonoffice insurance sales workers, child daycare workers, Religious organizations, and Private schools and hospitals. Benchmarks for State and Local government hospitals and Educational institutions are based on the Annual Census of Governments conducted by the Census Bureau. Benchmark data from these sources are available only on a lagged basis. Extrapolation to a current level is accomplished by applying the employment trends from the UI-covered part of the population in these industries to the noncovered part. Universe data for interstate railroads are obtained from the Railroad Retirement Board.

Business birth and death estimation. Regular updating of the CES sample frame with information from the UI universe files helps to keep the CES survey current with respect to employment from business births and business deaths. The timeliest UI universe files available, however, always will be a minimum of nine months out of date. The CES survey thus cannot rely on regular frame maintenance alone to provide estimates for business birth and death employment contributions. BLS has researched both sample-based and model-based approaches to measuring birth units that have not yet appeared on the UI universe frame. Since the research demonstrated that sampling for births was not feasible in the very short CES production timeframes, the Bureau is utilizing a model-based approach for this component.

Earlier research indicated that while both the business birth and death portions of total employment are generally significant, the net contribution is relatively small and stable. To account for this net birth/death portion of total employment, BLS is utilizing an estimation procedure with two components. The first component excludes employment losses from business deaths from sample-based estimation in order to offset the missing employment gains from business births. This is incorporated into the sample-based link relative estimate procedure by simply not reflecting sample units going out of business, but imputing to them the same trend as the other firms in the sample. The second component is an ARIMA time series model designed to estimate the residual net birth/death employment not accounted for by the imputation. The historical time series used to create and test the ARIMA model was derived from the UI universe micro level database, and reflects the actual residual net of births and deaths over the past five years. The net birth/death model component figures are unique to each month and include negative adjustments in some months. Furthermore, these figures exhibit a seasonal pattern similar to the seasonal patterns of the continuing businesses.

Only error from the second component is directly measurable. Error from this component is measured by comparing the actual residual from March 2010-11 – once it becomes available – with the model-based estimate. As Exhibit 6 shows, the actual net birth/death residual for April 2010 to March 2011 was approximately 12,000 below the forecasted amount used in the CES monthly estimates for the time period.

Exhibit 6. Differences between forecasted and actual net birth/death from April 2010 to March 2011 (in thousands)
Benchmark 2010 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Total

Actual Net Birth/Death

 106 205 138 55 70 -49 185 -33 -20 -356 72 64 437

Forecast Net Birth/Death

 141 192 131 -38 91 -25 71 -32 6 -339 112 117 427

Difference

 -35 13 7 93 -21 -24 114 -1 -26 -17 -40 -53 10

Cumulative Difference

 -35 -22 -15 78 57 33 147 146 120 103 63 10

 

Conversion to the 2012 North American Industry Classification System

Also with the release of the January 2012 estimates, the CES National nonfarm payroll series were updated to the 2012 North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) from the 2007 NAICS basis. The conversion to NAICS 2012 resulted in minor definitional changes within the Construction, Manufacturing, and Retail trade sectors, as well as minor coding changes within the Utilities and the Leisure and hospitality sectors. Several industry titles and descriptions were also updated. None of the revisions crossed supersector boundaries.

All series were converted to the 2012 NAICS basis prior to annual benchmark processing. In order to avoid time series breaks, all impacted series were reconstructed back to at least 1990. The reconstruction methodology is based on the first quarter 2011 UI microdata, which were coded on both a 2007 NAICS and a 2012 NAICS basis. Ratios were established from this dual coded file; the ratios were used to map employment from the 2007 NAICS series to the 2012 NAICS series. For example, the March 2011 employment ratios for 2007 CES NAICS industry 31-337129 (Miscellaneous household and institutional furniture) indicate that 96.1 percent of the employment will go to 2012 CES NAICS series 31-337127 (Miscellaneous household and institutional furniture) and 3.9 percent to 31-321990 (All other wood products). The 2007 NAICS to 2012 NAICS employment ratios, or distribution of employment from 2007 NAICS to 2012 NAICS, can be seen in Exhibit 7. The 2012 NAICS to 2007 NAICS employment ratios, or the composition of the 2012 NAICS series from 2007 NAICS, can be seen in Exhibit 8.

Exhibit 7. NAICS 2007 to NAICS 2012 All Employee Employment Ratios
CES NAICS 2007 Tabcode NAICS 2007 Industry CES NAICS 2012 Tabcode NAICS 2012 Industry Ratio

31-321990

 All other wood products 31-321990 All other wood products 100.0

31-337129

 Miscellaneous household and institutional furniture 31-321990 All other wood products 3.9

31-332995

 Small arms, ammunition, and other ordnance and accessories 31-332994 Small arms, ammunition, and other ordnance and accessories 100.0

31-333513

 Metal cutting and forming machine tools 31-333517 Machine tool manufacturing 100.0

31-333518

 Miscellaneous metalworking machinery 31-333519 Miscellaneous metalworking machinery 100.0

31-334119

 Computer terminals and other computer peripheral equipment 31-334118 Computer terminals and other computer peripheral equipment 100.0

31-336321

 Vehicular lighting equipment 31-336320 Motor vehicle electric equipment 100.0

31-336322

 Other motor vehicle electric equipment 31-336320 Motor vehicle electric equipment 100.0

31-337129

 Miscellaneous household and institutional furniture 31-337127 Miscellaneous household and institutional furniture 96.1

32-311330

 Chocolate confectioneries 32-311350 Chocolate and confectionery manufacturing 100.0

32-315290

 Women's and all other cut and sew apparel 32-315280 Women's and all other cut and sew apparel 100.0

32-322215

 Miscellaneous paperboard containers 32-322219 Folding boxes and miscellaneous paperboard containers 100.0

32-323110

 Commercial lithograph printing 32-323117 Commercial printing, except screen 100.0

32-323112

 Commercial flexographic printing 32-323117 Commercial printing, except screen 100.0

32-323114

 Quick printing 32-323117 Commercial printing, except screen 100.0

32-323119

 Miscellaneous commercial printing 32-323117 Commercial printing, except screen 100.0

42-443111

 Household appliance stores 42-443141 Household appliance stores 100.0

42-443112

 Radio, TV, and other electronics stores 42-443142 Electronics stores 100.0

42-443130

 Computer, software, camera, and photography supply stores 42-443142 Electronics stores 100.0

42-451220

 Prerecorded tape, CD, and record stores 42-443142 Electronics stores 100.0

42-454311

 Healing oil dealers 42-454310 Fuel dealers 100.0

42-454319

 Liquefied petroleum gas, bottled gas, and other fuel dealers 42-454310 Fuel dealers 100.0

44-221119

 Nuclear and other electric power generation 44-221118 Nuclear and other electric power generation 100.0

70-722100

 Full-service restaurants 70-722511 Full-service restaurants 100.0

70-722211

 Limited-service restaurants 70-722513 Limited-service restaurants 100.0

70-722212

 Cafeterias, grill buffets, and buffets 70-722514 Cafeterias, grill buffets, and buffets 100.0

70-722213

 Snack and nonalcoholic beverage bars 70-722515 Snack and nonalcoholic beverage bars 100.0

 

Exhibit 8. NAICS 2012 to NAICS 2007 All Employee Employment Ratios
CES NAICS 2012 Tabcode NAICS 2012 Industry CES NAICS 2007 Tabcode NAICS 2007 Industry Ratio

31-321990

 All other wood products 31-321990 All other wood products 97.3

31-321990

 All other wood products 31-337129 Miscellaneous household and institutional furniture 2.7

31-332994

 Small arms, ammunition, and other ordnance and accessories 31-332995 Small arms, ammunition, and other ordnance accessories 100.0

31-333517

 Machine tools 31-333513 Metal cutting and forming machine tools 100.0

31-333519

 Miscellaneous metalworking machinery 31-333518 Miscellaneous metalworking machinery 100.0

31-334118

 Computer terminals and other computer peripheral equipment 31-334119 Computer terminals and other computer peripheral equipment 100.0

31-336320

 Motor vehicle electric equipment 31-336321 Vehicular lighting equipment 22.3

31-336320

 Motor vehicle electric equipment 31-336322 Other motor vehicle electric equipment 77.7

31-337127

 Miscellaneous household and institutional furniture 31-337129 Miscellaneous household and institutional furniture 100.0

32-311350

 Chocolate and confectionery manufacturing 32-311330 Chocolate confectioneries 100.0

32-315280

 Women's and all other cut and sew apparel 32-315290 Women's and all other cut and sew apparel 100.0

32-322219

 Folding boxes and miscellaneous paperboard containers 32-322215 Miscellaneous paperboard containers 100.0

32-323117

 Commercial printing, except screen 32-323110 Commercial lithograph printing 46.2

32-323117

 Commercial printing, except screen 32-323112 Commercial flexographic printing 8.4

32-323117

 Commercial printing, except screen 32-323114 Quick printing 11.5

32-323117

 Commercial printing, except screen 32-323119 Miscellaneous commercial printing 34.0

42-443141

 Household appliance stores 42-443111 Household appliance stores 100.0

42-443142

 Electronics stores 42-443112 Radio, TV, and other electronics stores 70.8

42-443142

 Electronics stores 42-443130 Computer, software, camera, and photography supply stores 25.0

42-443142

 Electronics stores 42-451220 Prerecorded tape, CD, and record stores 4.2

42-451200

 Book stores and news dealers 42-451210 Book stores and news dealers 100.0

42-454310

 Fuel dealers 42-454311 Healing oil dealers 50.2

42-454310

 Fuel dealers 42-454319 Liquefied petroleum gas, bottled gas, and other fuel dealers 49.8

44-221118

 Nuclear and other electric power generation 44-221119 Nuclear and other electric power generation 100.0

70-722511

 Full-service restaurants 70-722100 Full-service restaurants 100.0

70-722513

 Limited-service restaurants 70-722211 Limited-service restaurants 100.0

70-722514

 Cafeterias, grill buffets, and buffets 70-722212 Cafeterias, grill buffets, and buffets 100.0

70-722515

 Snack and nonalcoholic beverage bars 70-722213 Snack and nonalcoholic beverage bars 100.0

 

The conversion to 2012 NAICS caused several changes to CES published series. Exhibit 9 shows new all employee series as a result of 2012 NAICS. Exhibit 10 shows changes in scope to published all employee series due to the 2012 NAICS reclassification. Exhibit 11 shows discontinued NAICS 2007 series that have been reclassified into 2012 NAICS.

Exhibit 9. New All Employee series as a result of reclassification of 2007 NAICS to 2012 NAICS
NAICS 2007 CES NAICS 2007 Tabcode CES NAICS 2007 Industry Reclassification into CES NAICS 2012 Industries

332995

 31-332995 Small arms, ammunition, and other ordinance and accessories Moved into new NAICS 2012 industry Small arms, ammunition, and other ordinance and accessories (31-332994)

333513

 31-333513 Metal cutting and forming machine tools Moved into new NAICS 2012 industry Machine tools (31-333517)

333518

 31-333518 Miscellaneous metalworking machinery Moved into new NAICS 2012 industry Miscellaneous metalworking machinery (31-333519)

334119

 31-334119 Computer terminals and other computer peripheral equipment Moved into new NAICS 2012 industry Computer terminals and other computer peripheral equipment (31-334118)

31133

 32-311330 Chocolate confectioneries Moved into new NAICS 2012 industry Chocolate and confectionery manufacturing (32-311350)

31529

 32-315290 Women's and all other cut and sew apparel Moved into new NAICS 2012 industry Women's and all other cut and sew apparel (32-315280)

322215

 32-322215 Miscellaneous paperboard containers Moved into new NAICS 2012 industry Folding boxes and miscellaneous paperboard containers (32-322219)

323110

 32-323110 Commercial lithograph printing Combined into new NAICS 2012 Commercial printing, except screen (32-323117)

323112

 32-323112 Commercial flexographic printing Combined into new NAICS 2012 Commercial printing, except screen (32-323117)

323114

 32-323114 Quick printing Combined into new NAICS 2012 Commercial printing, except screen (32-323117)

323119

 32-323119 Miscellaneous commercial printing Combined into new NAICS 2012 Commercial printing, except screen (32-323117)

443111

 42-443111 Household appliance stores Moved into new NAICS 2012 industry Household appliance stores (42-443141)

443112

 42-443112 Radio, TV, and other electronics stores Combined into new NAICS 2012 industry Electronics stores (42-443142)

44313

 42-443130 Computer, software, camera, and photography supply stores Combined into new NAICS 2012 industry Electronics stores (42-443142)

45122

 42-451220 Prerecorded tape, CD, and record stores Combined into new NAICS 2012 industry Electronics stores (42-443142)

221119

 44-221119 Nuclear and other electric power generation Moved into new NAICS 2012 industry Nuclear and other electric power generation (44-221118)

7221

 70-722100 Full-service restaurants Moved into new NAICS 2012 industry Full-service restaurants (70-722511)

722211

 70-722211 Limited-service restaurants Moved into new NAICS 2012 industry Limited-service restaurants (70-722513)

722212

 70-722212 Cafeterias, grill buffets, and buffets Moved into new NAICS 2012 industry Cafeterias, grill buffets, and buffets (70-722514)

722213

 70-722213 Snack and nonalcoholic beverage bars Moved into new NAICS 2012 industry Snack and nonalcoholic beverage bars (70-722515)

 

Exhibit 10. Change in Scope of All Employee Series Due to 2012 NAICS
NAICS 2012 CES NAICS 2012 Tabcode CES NAICS 2012 Industry Reclassified CES NAICS 2007 Industry

32199

 31-321990 All other wood products All other wood products (31-321990) gains a portion of Miscellaneous household and institutional furniture (31-337129)

337127

 31-337127 Miscellaneous household and institutional furniture A portion of Miscellaneous household and institutional furniture (31-337129) was moved to All other wood products (31-321990). The rest is reclassified into new NAICS 2012 industry Miscellaneous household and institutional furniture (31-337127).

323110

 32-323110 Printing The new NAICS 2012 series Printing (32-323110) was originally only Commercial lithograph printing, but now is an aggregate level containing Commercial screen printing (32-323113) and Commercial printing, except screen (32-323117).

4512

 42-451200 Book stores and news dealers A portion of Book, periodical, and music stores (42-451200) that is associated with Prerecorded tape, CD, and record stores (42-451220) is moved to Electronics stores (42-443142). Book, periodical, and music stores (42-451200) is renamed Book stores and news dealers.

7225

 70-722500 Restaurants and other eating places The new NAICS 2012 series Restaurants and other eating places (70-722500) combines Full-service restaurants (70-722100) with Limited-service eating places (70-722200).

 

Exhibit 11. Discontinued 2007 NAICS All Employee series
NAICS 2007 CES NAICS 2007 Tabcode CES NAICS 2007 Industry Next Highest Published Level

332116

 31-332116 Metal Stamping Forging and stamping (31-332100)

336321

 31-336321 Vehicular lighting equipment Motor vehicle electric equipment (31-336320)

336322

 31-336322 Other motor vehicle electric equipment Motor vehicle electric equipment (31-336320)

323112

 32-323112 Commercial flexographic printing Commercial printing, except screen (32-323117)

323114

 32-323114 Quick printing Commercial printing, except screen (32-323117)

323119

 32-323119 Miscellaneous commercial printing Commercial printing, except screen (32-323117)

443112

 42-443112 Radio, TV, and other electronics stores Electronics stores (42-443142)

44313

 42-443130 Computer, software, camera, and photography supply stores Electronics stores (42-443142)

45121

 42-451210 Book stores and news dealers Book stores and news dealers (42-451200)

454311

 42-454311 Heating oil dealers Fuel dealers (42-454310)

454319

 42-454319 Liquefied petroleum gas, bottled gas, and other fuel dealers Fuel dealers (42-454310)

 

The CES survey also updated industry titles to reflect similar changes in the 2012 NAICS industry definitions, shown in Exhibit 12. In most cases the scope of each industry is not affected by the title changes, except where the industries are also listed in the "Change in Scope" tables above.

Exhibit 12. Changes to Industry Titles
NAICS 2007 CES NAICS 2007 Tabcode CES NAICS 2007 Industry CES NAICS 2012 Industry

333517

 31-333517 Metal cutting and forming machine tools Machine tools

31522

 32-315220 Men's cut and sew apparel Men's and boys' cut and sew apparel

322219

 32-322219 Miscellaneous paperboard containers Folding boxes and miscellaneous paperboard containers

4512

 42-451200 Book, periodical, and music stores Book stores and news dealers

561422

 60-561422 Telemarketing bureaus and other contact centers Telemarketing bureaus

62321

 65-623210 Residential mental retardation facilities Residential intellectual and developmental disability facilities

623312

 65-623312 Homes for the elderly Assisted living facilities for the elderly

71219

 70-712190 Historical sites, zoos, botanical gardens, nature parks and similar institutions Historical sites, zoos, botanical gardens, nature parks, and similar institutions

7211

 70-721100 Traveler accommodation and other longer-term accommodation Traveler accommodation

72119

 70-721190 Miscellaneous traveler accommodation Other traveler accommodation

8123

 80-812300 Dry-cleaning and laundry services Drycleaning and laundry services

81231

 80-812310 Coin-operated laundries and dry cleaners Coin-operated laundries and drycleaners

81232

 80-812320 Dry-cleaning and laundry services, except coin-operated Drycleaning and laundry services, except coin-operated

 

Changes to noncovered employment

As part of a review of unemployment insurance tax laws BLS has identified several industries that have noncovered employment that have not been included previously. As such, BLS will now be calculating employment for those industries as well as collecting supplemental information on them from the States. The addition of these industries will add 95,000 jobs to the cumulative noncovered employment level. In order to avoid introducing series breaks, employment level shifts, and extensive historical revisions in the affected industries, the additional jobs were incorporated in the Match 2011 benchmark levels and wedged back using standard benchmark methodology.

Exhibit 13. Industries with Noncovered Employment Introduced with the 2011 Benchmark (in thousands)
NAICS Industry Code Industry Title Noncovered Employment

524126

 Direct property and casualty insurance carriers 72

524127

 Direct title insurance carriers 0

524128

 Other direct insurance carriers 5

524130

 Reinsurance carriers 0

524210

 Insurance agencies and brokerages 11

611410

 Business and secretarial schools 0

611420

 Computer training 0

611430

 Professional and management development training 0

611511

 Cosmetology and barber schools 0

611512

 Flight training 0

611513

 Apprenticeship training 2

611519

 Other technical and trade schools 1

611610

 Fine arts schools 4

 

Technical changes to historical data

In addition to the normal benchmark process and revisions due to the conversion to NAICS 2012, the CES survey recalculated historical data for some aggregate series and annual averages for hours and earnings data prior to April 2010.

Aggregate series. In previous years, changes in the industry aggregation structure that resulted from the annual sample adequacy review had not included a reaggregation of the series using consistent aggregation rules. Aggregation procedures are described in the CES technical notes. This year, all aggregate data series were recalculated using standard formulas. This resulted in minor differences to not seasonally adjusted data – no more than 2,000 for employment series, 0.1 for hours series, and $0.01 for earnings series – primarily related to rounding.

Data for these series prior to 2007 were re-seasonally adjusted. While the re-adjusted series contained considerably more historical data than when originally adjusted, the resulting revisions affected fewer than 2% of employment, 5% of hours, and 8% of earnings data points.

Annual averages. Annual average calculations for hours and earnings data prior to 1990 were calculated using a different formula than has been used for the post 1990 period. The differences in formula resulted in minor differences in the calculated value. With this change, all annual average data will use standardized calculations for the series.

Availability of revised data

LABSTAT, the BLS public database on the Internet, contains all historical employment, hours, and earnings data revised as a result of this benchmark, including both unadjusted and seasonally adjusted data. The data can be accessed at http://www.bls.gov/ces/, the Current Employment Statistics homepage.

Small domain model

The CES Small Domain Model (SDM) is used for industries where the sample alone is insufficient for reliable estimates. The CES SDM is a Weighted Least Squares model with two employment inputs: (1) an estimate based on available CES sample for that series, and (2) an ARIMA projection based on 10 years of historical QCEW data. Further background on the SDM is provided in the CES technical notes.

There are six industries estimated by using the SDM. These industries are lessors of nonfinancial intangible assets, direct health and medical insurance carriers, tax preparation services, other technical consulting services, remediation services, and recreational and vacation camps.

Seasonal adjustment procedure

BLS uses X-12 ARIMA software developed by the U.S. Census Bureau to seasonally adjust National employment, hours, and earnings series derived from the CES program. Individual series are seasonally adjusted using either a multiplicative or an additive model (Exhibit 14), and seasonal adjustment factors are directly applied to the component levels. For employment, individual 3-digit NAICS levels are seasonally adjusted, and higher level aggregates are formed by summing these components. Seasonally adjusted totals for hours and earnings are obtained by taking weighted averages of the seasonally adjusted data for the component series.

Special model adjustments

Variable survey intervals. Beginning with the release of the 1995 benchmark, BLS refined the seasonal adjustment procedures to control for survey interval variations, sometimes referred to as the 4- versus 5-week effect. Although the CES survey is referenced to a consistent concept – the pay period including the 12th of each month – inconsistencies arise because there are sometimes four and sometimes five weeks between the week including the 12th in a given pair of months. In highly seasonal industries, these variations can be an important determinant of the magnitude of seasonal hires or layoffs that have occurred at the time the survey is taken, thereby complicating seasonal adjustment.

Standard seasonal adjustment methodology relies heavily on the experience of the most recent three years to determine the expected seasonal change in employment for each month of the current year. Prior to the implementation of the adjustment, the procedure did not distinguish between 4- and 5-week survey intervals, and the accuracy of the seasonal expectation depended in large measure on how well the current year’s survey interval corresponded with those of the previous three years. All else the same, the greatest potential for distortion occurred when the current month being estimated had a 5-week interval but the three years preceding it were all 4-week intervals, or conversely when the current month had a 4-week interval but the three years preceding it were all 5-week intervals.

BLS adopted REGARIMA (regression with auto-correlated errors) modeling to identify the estimated size and significance of the calendar effect for each published series. REGARIMA combines standard regression analysis, which measures correlation among two or more variables, with ARIMA modeling, which describes and predicts the behavior of data series based on its own past history. For many economic time series, including nonfarm payroll employment, observations are auto-correlated over time; that is, each month’s value is significantly dependent on the observations that precede it. These series, therefore, usually can be successfully fit using ARIMA models. If auto-correlated time series are modeled through regression analysis alone, the measured relationships among other variables of interest may be distorted due to the influence of the auto-correlation. Thus, the REGARIMA technique is appropriate for measuring relationships among variables of interest in series that exhibit auto-correlation, such as Nonfarm payroll employment.

In this application, the correlations of interest are those between employment levels in individual calendar months and the lengths of the survey intervals for those months. The REGARIMA models evaluate the variation in employment levels attributable to eleven separate survey interval variables, one specified for each month, except March. March is excluded because there are almost always four weeks between the February and March surveys. Models for individual basic series are fit with the most recent ten years of data available, the standard time span used for CES seasonal adjustment.

The REGARIMA procedure yields regression coefficients for each of the eleven months specified in the model. These coefficients provide estimates of the strength of the relationship between employment levels and the number of weeks between surveys for the eleven modeled months. The X-12 ARIMA software also produces diagnostic statistics that permit the assessment of the statistical significance of the regression coefficients, and all series are reviewed for model adequacy.

Because the eleven coefficients derived from the REGARIMA models provide an estimate of the magnitude of variation in employment levels associated with the length of the survey interval, these coefficients are used to adjust the CES data to remove the calendar effect. These "filtered" series then are seasonally adjusted using the standard X-12 ARIMA software.

For a few series, REGARIMA models do not fit well; these series are seasonally adjusted with the X-12 software but without the interval effect adjustment. There are several additional special effects modeled through the REGARIMA process; they are described below.

Construction series. Beginning with the 1996 benchmark revision, BLS utilized special treatment to adjust construction industry series. In the application of the interval effect modeling process to the construction series, there initially was difficulty in accurately identifying and measuring the effect because of the strong influence of variable weather patterns on employment movements in the industry. Further research allowed BLS to incorporate interval effect modeling for the construction industry by disaggregating the construction series into its finer industry and geographic estimating cells and tightening outlier designation parameters. This allowed a more precise identification of weather-related outliers that had masked the interval effect and clouded the seasonal adjustment patterns in general. With these outliers removed, interval effect modeling became feasible. The result is a seasonally adjusted series for construction that is improved because it is controlled for two potential distortions: unusual weather events and the 4- versus 5-week effect.

Floating holidays. BLS is continuing the practice of making special adjustments for average weekly hours and average weekly overtime series to account for the presence or absence of religious holidays in the April survey reference period and the occurrence of Labor Day in the September reference period, back to the start date of each series.

Local government series. A special adjustment also is made in November each year to account for variations in employment due to the presence or absence of poll workers in Local government, excluding educational services.

Refinements in hours and earnings seasonal adjustment. With the release of the 1997 benchmark, BLS implemented refinements to the seasonal adjustment process for the hours and earnings series to correct for distortions related to the method of accounting for the varying length of payroll periods across months. There is a significant correlation between over-the-month changes in both the average weekly hour (AWH) and the average hourly earnings (AHE) series and the number of weekdays in a month, resulting in noneconomic fluctuations in these two series. Both AWH and AHE show more growth in "short" months (20 or 21 weekdays) than in "long" months (22 or 23 weekdays). The effect is stronger for the AWH than for the AHE series.

The calendar effect is traceable to response and processing errors associated with converting payroll and hours information from sample respondents with semi-monthly or monthly pay periods to a weekly equivalent. The response error comes from sample respondents reporting a fixed number of total hours for workers regardless of the length of the reference month, while the CES conversion process assumes that the hours reporting will be variable. A constant level of hours reporting most likely occurs when employees are salaried rather than paid by the hour, as employers are less likely to keep actual detailed hours records for such employees. This causes artificial peaks in the AWH series in shorter months that are reversed in longer months.

The processing error occurs when respondents with salaried workers report hours correctly (vary them according to the length of the month), which dictates that different conversion factors be applied to payroll and hours. The CES processing system uses the hours conversion factor for both fields, resulting in peaks in the AHE series in short months and reversals in long months.

REGARIMA modeling is used to identify, measure, and remove the length-of-pay-period effect for seasonally adjusted average weekly hours and average hourly earnings series. The length-of-pay-period variable proves significant for explaining AWH movements in all the service-providing industries except Utilities. For AHE, the length-of-pay-period variable is significant for Wholesale trade, Retail trade, Information, Financial activities, Professional and business services, and Other services. All AWH series in the service-providing industries except Utilities have been adjusted from January 1990 forward. The AHE series for Wholesale trade, Retail trade, Information, Financial activities, Professional and business services, and Other services have been adjusted from January 1990 forward as well. For this reason, calculations of over-the-year change in the establishment hours and earnings series should use seasonally adjusted data.

The series to which the length-of-pay-period adjustment is applied are not subject to the 4- versus 5-week adjustment, as the modeling cannot support the number of variables that would be required in the regression equation to make both adjustments.

Seasonal adjustment of all employee hours and earnings series

The X-12 ARIMA software requires at least five years of data to adjust for variation due to the calendar effects (4- vs. 5-week, 10- vs. 11-day). Previously, CES had used a special procedure (http://www.bls.gov/ces/ces_aeppsa.pdf) to seasonally adjust these short series with less than five years of history. Now, CES has five full years of history for the new all employee hours and earnings series, allowing it to begin seasonal adjustment of the all employee hours and earnings series to incorporate the special model adjustments described above. This year, CES will replace the entire 70 months of seasonally adjusted all employee hours and earnings data, ensuring all data is adjusted using the same methodology.

Exhibit 14. Model specifications Seasonal Adjustment – AE
NAICS Tabcode Tabcode Title Mode 4/5 week adj Other adj

1011330000

 Logging MULT X

1021100000

 Oil and gas extraction MULT X

1021200000

 Mining, except oil and gas - X Indirect(1)

1021210000

 Coal mining MULT X

1021300000

 Support activities for mining MULT X

2023610000

 Residential building - X Indirect

2023620000

 Nonresidential building - X Indirect

2023700000

 Heavy and civil engineering construction ADD X

2023800000

 Specialty trade contractors - X Indirect

2023800100

 Residential specialty trade contractors MULT X Raked(2)

2023800200

 Nonresidential specialty trade contractors ADD X Raked(2)

3132100000

 Wood products ADD X

3132700000

 Nonmetallic mineral products ADD X

3133100000

 Primary metals ADD X

3133200000

 Fabricated metal products ADD X

3133300000

 Machinery MULT X

3133400000

 Computer and electronic products - X Indirect

3133410000

 Computer and peripheral equipment MULT X

3133420000

 Communications equipment MULT X

3133440000

 Semiconductors and electronic components MULT X

3133450000

 Electronic instruments MULT X

3133500000

 Electrical equipment and appliances MULT X

3133600000

 Transportation equipment ADD

3133600100

 Motor vehicles and parts ADD

3133700000

 Furniture and related products ADD X

3133900000

 Miscellaneous manufacturing MULT X

3231100000

 Food manufacturing MULT X

3231200000

 Beverages and tobacco products MULT X

3231300000

 Textile mills MULT X

3231400000

 Textile product mills MULT X

3231500000

 Apparel MULT X

3231600000

 Leather and allied products ADD X

3232200000

 Paper and paper products MULT X

3232300000

 Printing and related support activities MULT X

3232400000

 Petroleum and coal products ADD X

3232500000

 Chemicals MULT X

3232600000

 Plastics and rubber products ADD X

4142300000

 Durable goods MULT X

4142400000

 Nondurable goods MULT X

4142500000

 Electronic markets and agents and brokers MULT X

4244100000

 Motor vehicle and parts dealers - X Indirect

4244110000

 Automobile dealers ADD X

4244200000

 Furniture and home furnishings stores MULT X

4244300000

 Electronics and appliance stores MULT X

4244400000

 Building material and garden supply stores MULT X

4244500000

 Food and beverage stores MULT X

4244600000

 Health and personal care stores MULT X

4244700000

 Gasoline stations MULT X

4244800000

 Clothing and clothing accessories stores MULT X

4245100000

 Sporting goods, hobby, book, and music stores MULT X

4245200000

 General merchandise stores - X Indirect

4245210000

 Department stores MULT X

4245300000

 Miscellaneous store retailers MULT X

4245400000

 Nonstore retailers MULT X

4348100000

 Air transportation MULT X

4348200000

 Rail transportation MULT X

4348300000

 Water transportation ADD X

4348400000

 Truck transportation ADD X

4348500000

 Transit and ground passenger transportation ADD

4348600000

 Pipeline transportation MULT X

4348700000

 Scenic and sightseeing transportation MULT X

4348800000

 Support activities for transportation MULT X

4349200000

 Couriers and messengers MULT X

4349300000

 Warehousing and storage ADD X

4422000000

 Utilities MULT X

5051100000

 Publishing industries, except Internet MULT X

5051200000

 Motion picture and sound recording industries MULT X

5051500000

 Broadcasting, except Internet MULT X

5051700000

 Telecommunications MULT X

5051800000

 Data processing, hosting and related services MULT X

5051900000

 Other information services MULT X

5552100000

 Monetary authorities - central bank MULT X

5552200000

 Credit intermediation and related activities - X Indirect

5552210000

 Depository credit intermediation MULT X

5552211000

 Commercial banking MULT X

5552300000

 Securities, commodity contracts, investments MULT X

5552400000

 Insurance carriers and related activities MULT X

5552500000

 Funds, trusts, and other financial vehicles ADD X

5553100000

 Real estate MULT X

5553200000

 Rental and leasing services ADD X

5553300000

 Lessors of nonfinancial intangible assets MULT X

6054000000

 Professional and technical services - X Indirect

6054110000

 Legal services MULT X

6054120000

 Accounting and bookkeeping services ADD X

6054130000

 Architectural and engineering services MULT X

6054150000

 Computer systems design and related services ADD X

6054160000

 Management and technical consulting services MULT X

6055000000

 Management of companies and enterprises ADD X

6056100000

 Administrative and support services - X Indirect

6056130000

 Employment services ADD X

6056132000

 Temporary help services ADD X

6056140000

 Business support services ADD X

6056170000

 Services to buildings and dwellings MULT X

6056200000

 Waste management and remediation services ADD X

6561000000

 Educational services ADD X

6562100000

 Ambulatory health care services - X Indirect

6562110000

 Offices of physicians MULT X

6562140000

 Outpatient care centers MULT X

6562160000

 Home health care services ADD X

6562200000

 Hospitals ADD X

6562300000

 Nursing and residential care facilities - X Indirect

6562310000

 Nursing care facilities MULT X

6562400000

 Social assistance - X Indirect

6562440000

 Child day care services MULT X

7071100000

 Performing arts and spectator sports MULT X

7071200000

 Museums, historical sites, zoos, and parks MULT X

7071300000

 Amusements, gambling, and recreation MULT X

7072100000

 Accommodation MULT X

7072200000

 Food services and drinking places MULT X

8081100000

 Repair and maintenance MULT X

8081200000

 Personal and laundry services MULT X

8081300000

 Membership associations and organizations MULT

9091100000

 Federal, except U.S. Postal Service MULT X

9091912000

 U.S. Postal Service MULT X

9092161100

 State government education ADD X

9092200000

 State government, excluding education MULT X

9093161100

 Local government education ADD X

9093200000

 Local government, excluding education MULT X Election adjustment(3)

 

Seasonal Adjustment – AE AWH
NAICS Tabcode Tabcode title Mode 4/5 week adj 10/11 day adj Easter/Labor Day adj

1000000000

 Mining and logging MULT X X

2000000000

 Construction MULT X X

3132100000

 Wood products MULT X X

3132700000

 Nonmetallic mineral products ADD X X

3133100000

 Primary metals MULT X X

3133200000

 Fabricated metal products MULT X X

3133300000

 Machinery MULT X X

3133400000

 Computer and electronic products MULT X X

3133500000

 Electrical equipment and appliances MULT X X

3133600000

 Transportation equipment MULT X X

3133600100

 Motor vehicles and parts ADD X X

3133700000

 Furniture and related products MULT X X

3133900000

 Miscellaneous manufacturing MULT X X

3231100000

 Food manufacturing MULT X X

3231200000

 Beverages and tobacco products MULT X X

3231300000

 Textile mills MULT X X

3231400000

 Textile product mills MULT X X

3231500000

 Apparel MULT X X

3231600000

 Leather and allied products MULT X X

3232200000

 Paper and paper products MULT X X

3232300000

 Printing and related support activities MULT X X

3232400000

 Petroleum and coal products ADD X X

3232500000

 Chemicals MULT X

3232600000

 Plastics and rubber products MULT X X

4142000000

 Wholesale trade MULT X X

4200000000

 Retail trade MULT X

4300000000

 Transportation and warehousing MULT X X

4422000000

 Utilities MULT X

5000000000

 Information MULT X

5500000000

 Financial activities MULT X

6000000000

 Professional and business services MULT X X

6500000000

 Education and health services MULT X

7000000000

 Leisure and hospitality MULT X

8000000000

 Other services MULT X X

 

Seasonal Adjustment – AE AHE
NAICS Tabcode Tabcode title Mode 4/5 week adj 10/11 day adj

1000000000

 Mining and logging ADD X

2000000000

 Construction ADD X

3100000000

 Durable goods ADD X

3200000000

 Nondurable goods ADD X

4142000000

 Wholesale trade MULT X

4200000000

 Retail trade MULT X

4300000000

 Transportation and warehousing MULT X

4422000000

 Utilities ADD X

5000000000

 Information MULT X

5500000000

 Financial activities ADD X

6000000000

 Professional and business services ADD X

6500000000

 Education and health services ADD X

7000000000

 Leisure and hospitality MULT X

8000000000

 Other services MULT X

 

Seasonal Adjustment – AE AOH
NAICS Tabcode Tabcode title Mode 4/5 week adj 10/11 day adj Easter/Labor Day adj

3100000000

 Durable goods ADD X X

3200000000

 Nondurable goods MULT X X

 

Seasonal Adjustment – PE
NAICS Tabcode Tabcode Title Mode 4/5 week adj Other adj

1000000000

 Mining and logging MULT X

2000000000

 Construction ADD X

3132100000

 Wood products ADD X

3132700000

 Nonmetallic mineral products ADD X

3133100000

 Primary metals ADD X

3133200000

 Fabricated metal products ADD X

3133300000

 Machinery MULT X

3133400000

 Computer and electronic products MULT X

3133500000

 Electrical equipment and appliances MULT X

3133600000

 Transportation equipment ADD

3133600100

 Motor vehicles and parts ADD

3133700000

 Furniture and related products ADD X

3133900000

 Miscellaneous manufacturing MULT X

3231100000

 Food manufacturing MULT X

3231200000

 Beverages and tobacco products MULT X

3231300000

 Textile mills MULT X

3231400000

 Textile product mills MULT X

3231500000

 Apparel MULT X

3231600000

 Leather and allied products MULT X

3232200000

 Paper and paper products MULT X

3232300000

 Printing and related support activities MULT X

3232400000

 Petroleum and coal products ADD X

3232500000

 Chemicals MULT X

3232600000

 Plastics and rubber products ADD X

4142000000

 Wholesale trade MULT X

4200000000

 Retail trade MULT X

4300000000

 Transportation and warehousing ADD X

4422000000

 Utilities MULT X

5000000000

 Information MULT X

5500000000

 Financial activities MULT X

6000000000

 Professional and business services MULT X

6500000000

 Education and health services ADD X

7000000000

 Leisure and hospitality MULT X

8000000000

 Other services MULT X

 

Seasonal Adjustment – PE AHE
NAICS Tabcode Tabcode title Mode 4/5 week adj 10/11 day adj Easter/Labor Day adj

1000000000

 Mining and logging MULT X X

2000000000

 Construction ADD X X

3132100000

 Wood products MULT X X

3132700000

 Nonmetallic mineral products ADD X X

3133100000

 Primary metals MULT X X

3133200000

 Fabricated metal products MULT X X

3133300000

 Machinery ADD X X

3133400000

 Computer and electronic products MULT X X

3133500000

 Electrical equipment and appliances MULT X X

3133600000

 Transportation equipment MULT X X

3133600100

 Motor vehicles and parts ADD X X

3133700000

 Furniture and related products MULT X X

3133900000

 Miscellaneous manufacturing MULT X X

3231100000

 Food manufacturing MULT X X

3231200000

 Beverages and tobacco products ADD X X

3231300000

 Textile mills ADD X X

3231400000

 Textile product mills MULT X X

3231500000

 Apparel MULT X X

3231600000

 Leather and allied products ADD X X

3232200000

 Paper and paper products MULT X X

3232300000

 Printing and related support activities MULT X X

3232400000

 Petroleum and coal products MULT X X

3232500000

 Chemicals MULT X

3232600000

 Plastics and rubber products MULT X X

4142000000

 Wholesale trade MULT X X

4200000000

 Retail trade MULT X

4300000000

 Transportation and warehousing MULT X X

4422000000

 Utilities MULT X

5000000000

 Information MULT X

5500000000

 Financial activities MULT X

6000000000

 Professional and business services MULT X X

6500000000

 Education and health services MULT X

7000000000

 Leisure and hospitality MULT X

8000000000

 Other services MULT X X

 

Seasonal Adjustment – PE AHE
NAICS Tabcode Tabcode title Mode 4/5 week adj 10/11 day adj

1000000000

 Mining and logging MULT X

2000000000

 Construction MULT X

3100000000

 Durable goods MULT X

3200000000

 Nondurable goods MULT X

4142000000

 Wholesale trade MULT X

4200000000

 Retail trade MULT X

4300000000

 Transportation and warehousing MULT X

4422000000

 Utilities MULT X

5000000000

 Information MULT X

5500000000

 Financial activities MULT X

6000000000

 Professional and business services MULT X

6500000000

 Education and health services ADD X

7000000000

 Leisure and hospitality ADD X

8000000000

 Other services MULT X

 

Seasonal Adjustment – PE AOH
NAICS Tabcode Tabcode title Mode 4/5 week adj 10/11 day adj Easter/Labor Day adj

3100000000

 Durable goods MULT X X

3200000000

 Nondurable goods ADD X X

 

Seasonal Adjustment – WE
NAICS Tabcode Tabcode Title Mode 4/5 week adj Other adj

1000000000

 Mining and logging MULT X

1021000000

 Mining MULT X

2000000000

 Construction ADD X

3100000000

 Durable goods MULT X

3200000000

 Nondurable goods MULT X

4142000000

 Wholesale trade MULT X

4200000000

 Retail trade MULT X

4300000000

 Transportation and warehousing ADD X

4422000000

 Utilities MULT X

5000000000

 Information MULT X

5552000000

 Finance and insurance MULT X

5553000000

 Real estate and rental and leasing MULT X

6054000000

 Professional and technical services ADD X

6055000000

 Management of companies and enterprises ADD X

6056000000

 Administrative and waste services ADD X

6561000000

 Educational services ADD X

6562000000

 Health care and social assistance ADD X

7071000000

 Arts, entertainment, and recreation MULT X

7072000000

 Accommodation and food services MULT X

8000000000

 Other services MULT X

9091000000

 Federal MULT X

9092000000

 State government ADD X

9093000000

 Local government ADD X Election adjustment(3)

(1) Seasonal adjustment occurs at the lowest available industry level.

(2) Residential and nonresidential specialty trade estimates are raked to the specialty trade estimates to ensure consistency.

(3) Special adjustment for the presence/absence of poll workers in local government.

 

 

Last Modified Date: February 3, 2012