Tropical Depression FIFTEEN-E Forecast Discussion

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 061451
TCDEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152012
800 AM PDT SAT OCT 06 2012

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW ENOUGH CONVECTION AND ORGANIZATION FOR
THE DISTURBANCE SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. IN FACT...BOTH TAFB AND SAB INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 2.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. THE ENVIRONMENT IS ONLY
MARGINAL FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST BASICALLY
FOLLOWS THE LGEM STATISTICAL MODEL.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN SINCE THE DEPRESSION IS IN ITS
FORMATIVE STAGE...BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 280/10. THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
LEAVING THE DEPRESSION IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS.  MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE SHOW THAT THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE ON THE GENERAL SLOW
WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK UNTIL DISSIPATION IN 3 OR 4 DAYS...AND
SO DOES THE NHC FORECAST.

VISIBLE IMAGES AND PERHAPS MICROWAVE DATA LATER TODAY WILL GIVE US
A BETTER DESCRIPTION OF THE STRUCTURE OF THE DEPRESSION. SOME
ADJUSTMENTS COULD BE NECESSARY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/1500Z 14.0N 118.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  07/0000Z 14.5N 119.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  07/1200Z 15.0N 120.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  08/0000Z 15.5N 121.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  08/1200Z 16.0N 122.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  09/1200Z 16.5N 122.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  10/1200Z 16.5N 123.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  11/1200Z 16.5N 124.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

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FORECASTER AVILA