Tropical Storm OLIVIA Forecast Advisory

000
WTPZ25 KNHC 071452
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152012
1500 UTC SUN OCT 07 2012

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 121.0W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  15SE  45SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 121.0W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 120.8W

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 15.2N 121.3W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 16.1N 121.4W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  70SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 16.6N 121.7W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  70SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 16.8N 122.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 16.4N 123.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 15.9N 125.8W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 15.3N 128.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 121.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI