Two tropical cyclones are being watched in the Atlantic: Hurricane Sandy and Tropical Storm Tony, both of which formed as tropical depressions within hours of each other on Monday.

Having made landfall in northeast Jamaica earlier today,  Sandy is now headed for Cuba and the Bahamas. After that, it's looking more and more possible that (rather than continuing out to sea) the storm will veer northwestward toward the mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S. and merge with an approaching low. If this happens, the East Coast could be staring at a significant risk for inland flooding, tropical-storm-force winds, and power outages from late weekend into Tuesday of next week. What's more, if cold air dips down out of Canada and pools at the storm's western edge, it could also create the potential for snowfall...especially for parts of Maryland, Pennsylvania, and the Virginias. Could the name Sandy, which made its first appearance on the Atlantic names list this year, be at risk for retirement so soon? Only time will tell.

In contrast, Tony remains over a thousand miles southwest of the Azores Islands and away from all land areas. It is expected to continue tracking northeastward out into the middle Atlantic, with gradual weakening beginning as soon as tonight.

To date, a total of 19 named storms have occurred. This ties 2012 with 1887, 1995, 2010, and 2011 as the third busiest in Atlantic hurricane history. It is also the first time in recorded history that three of the busiest seasons have fallen consecutively.

All this talk of winter forecasts has left me wondering--what type of winter does the woolly worm predict we'll see this year? Since I haven't yet crossed paths with one in my local woods, nor was I able to attend last weekend's festival in Banner Elk, NC, I'm hoping you weather blog readers can send me news. I invite you to share your local observations by email, twitter, FB, or by using the comments section below. Pics are welcome too!

Clueless about the woolly worm and nature's other winter weather predictors? Read more

For many states, the 2011-2012 winter season left much to be desired in the way of wintry weather. Can the U.S. expect a repeat this season? According to the NOAA, residents of the central and western U.S. very well could.

In its annual Winter Outlook (released October 18) it predicts locations from the Mississippi River Valley to the Cascades will be at least 33% more likely to experience warmer-than-normal temperatures between December to February. With regions across the Midwest also forecast to be drier than normal, there looks to be little in the way of drought relief for our nation's midsection. (Recall that conditions were somewhat reversed last winter--the 4th warmest winter on record. Last year, temperatures were warm in the East and winter precipitation was above-normal mainly across our nation's midsection.)

Eastern parts of the country are expected to have equal chances of above-, below-, or near-normal temperatures and precipitation, with the exception of Florida (which should be colder than normal) and the Gulf states (which should be wetter than normal).

However, if El Niño conditions (which are delayed in their arrival) finally do develop, this forecast could undergo slight modifications. Namely, the southern U.S. would lean towards below-normal temperatures and above-normal snowfall. But all eyes won't be on El Niño alone. AO and NAO climate patterns also largely influence winter weather, unfortunately, the behavior of each isn't predictable more than a few weeks out. (Once we near the official start of winter, watch for extremely negative values; these are indicative of harsh winter conditions.)

To read NOAA's full winter forecast, click here. In true forecasting competition spirit, you might also wish to compare it with this year's predictions made by the Farmer's Almanac and AccuWeather.

Image credit: NOAA

September may not have been a notable month temperature-wise for the U.S. (it ranked as the 23rd warmest), but globally, it was a different story. The NOAA NCDC reports that last month's global average temperature ties September 2005 as the no. 1 warmest September since record keeping began in 1880. The combined land + ocean temperature measured 1.21°F (0.67°C) above what's normal worldwide for September--59°F (15°C). (Read the full technical report here.)

Noticed a trend in recent global monthly average temperatures? The past 6 months have each made it onto our "Climate Top Tens" list:

• April: 5th warmest
• May: 2nd warmest
• June: 4th warmest
• July: 4th warmest
• August: 4th warmest
• September: warmest (tied with 2005)

The transition to ENSO neutral/weak El Nino (warmer than normal ocean temperatures) conditions, which we first saw back in May, has definitely played a part in creating Earth's warmer than usual summer, and now fall months. Warmer temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean work to elevate Earth's total water and land temperature.

Image credit: NOAA