Tropical Storm PAUL
Mariners' 1-2-3 Rule
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About this product:
The Mariners' 1-2-3 Rule, or "Danger area", is indicated by shading. The
1-2-3 Rule, commonly taught to mariners, refers to the rounded long-term
NHC forecast errors of 100-200-300 nautical miles at 24-48-72 hours,
respectively. The contour defining the shaded area is constructed by
accounting for those errors and then broadened further to reflect the
maximum tropical storm force (34 knot) wind radii forecast at each of those times by the NHC. The
NHC does not warrant that avoiding these danger areas will eliminate the
risk of harm from tropical cyclones.
Users operating in the vicinity of
these systems are advised to continually monitor the latest
Forecast/Advisories from the NHC and proceed at their own risk. Areas are also shaded for
systems in which NHC forecasters believe there is an adequate chance of tropical cyclone formation within
the next 48 hours.
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