Tropical Storm PAUL Forecast Discussion

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 170241
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162012
800 PM PDT TUE OCT 16 2012

VERY LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS WITH PAUL...AND THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL ACTUALLY APPEARS TO BE WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  HOWEVER...PAUL IS STILL PRODUCING SOME
LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION CLOSER TO ITS CENTER.  THERE HAS BEEN NO
GROUND TRUTH TO ESTIMATE THE INTENSITY OF PAUL...AND DVORAK
ESTIMATES ARE SLOW TO COME DOWN DUE TO CONSTRAINTS.  GIVEN THE
CURRENT STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 50 KT
IS ESTIMATED BY ASSUMING A FAIRLY QUICK RATE OF DECAY.

PAUL HAS CONTINUED TO SLOW DOWN AND IS MOVING PARALLEL TO THE WEST
COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA WITH A MOTION OF 350/10 KT.  THE
TROPICAL STORM HAS BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CIRCULATION OF A
CUT-OFF LOW LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...AND PAUL IS
EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE
CUT-OFF LOW DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THE NEW SUITE OF TRACK
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CENTER OF PAUL JUST GRAZING THE COAST AND BARELY
MOVING INLAND...IF AT ALL...SO THE NEW NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN
SHIFTED A BIT TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 36 HOURS.

STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30 TO 40 KT IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AFFECTING PAUL DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...SO RAPID
WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE
DECAY SHOWN BY THE DSHIPS AND LGEM MODELS AND SHOWS PAUL WEAKENING
BELOW TROPICAL-STORM STRENGTH BETWEEN 12 AND 24 HOURS.  THE REMNANT
LOW SHOULD THEN DISSIPATE OVER THE PACIFIC WEST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA BY 48 HOURS AS ADVERTISED BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/0300Z 25.6N 112.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  17/1200Z 26.9N 113.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 24H  18/0000Z 28.0N 115.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  18/1200Z 29.0N 118.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG/PASCH