Hurricane RAFAEL Public Advisory

000
WTNT32 KNHC 170245
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RAFAEL ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172012
1100 PM AST TUE OCT 16 2012

...RAFAEL BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.4N 62.5W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM E OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.5 WEST.  RAFAEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 29 MPH...46 KM/H.  A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...RAFAEL WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM BERMUDA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  RAFAEL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND RAFAEL COULD LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATE
WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT DATA IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE IN BERMUDA WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT BERMUDA AND
THE EASTERN-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS AND PORTIONS OF THE
UNITED STATES EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH