Tropical Storm PAUL Public Advisory

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 170534
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PAUL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  15A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162012
1100 PM PDT TUE OCT 16 2012

...PAUL CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.1N 112.9W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM SE OF PUNTA ABREOJOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM...
* SANTA FE TO EL POCITO
* SAN EVARISTO TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM...
* NORTH OF EL POCITO TO PUNTA EUGENIA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAUL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.9 WEST.  PAUL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H.  A TURN
TOWARD NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF PAUL WILL MOVE ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  PAUL SHOULD
THEN MOVE AWAY FROM THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND PAUL IS
SHOULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PAUL IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND DISSIPATE
ON THURSDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING IN THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTION OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA...
AND SHOULD GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.  TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA
ON WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL...PAUL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH PAUL.  THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING
ALONG THE COAST OF THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN AREAS
OF ONSHORE WINDS.  NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY LARGE WAVES.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY PAUL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WEST
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE COAST OF SINALOA FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.  PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART