Agricultural Adaptation to a Changing Climate: Economic and Environmental Implications Vary by U.S. Region
by
Scott Malcolm,
Elizabeth Marshall,
Marcel Aillery,
Paul Heisey,
Michael Livingston, and
Kelly Day-RubensteinEconomic Research Report No. (ERR-136) 84 pp, July 2012
Global climate models predict increases over time in average temperature worldwide,
with significant impacts on local patterns of temperature and precipitation. The extent to
which such changes present a risk to food supplies, farmer livelihoods, and rural communities
depends in part on the direction, magnitude, and rate of such changes, but equally
importantly on the ability of the agricultural sector to adapt to changing patterns of
yield and productivity, production cost, and resource availability. Study findings suggest
that, while impacts are highly sensitive to uncertain climate projections, farmers have
considerable flexibility to adapt to changes in local weather, resource conditions, and
price signals by adjusting crops, rotations, and production practices. Such adaptation,
using existing crop production technologies, can partially mitigate the impacts of climate
change on national agricultural markets. Adaptive redistribution of production, however,
may have significant implications for both regional land use and environmental quality.
Keywords: Climate change, adaptation, water resources, agricultural pests, Regional Environment and Agriculture Programming (REAP) model, regional crop mix, regional environmental effects, drought tolerance, pest management
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