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"Not until the final Ee'adian dragon has ceased its flaming roar, not until the blood of the ogres has filled the Lake of Bar'hal to overflowing, not until the air is choked with smoke from the burning of goblin-heads shall we cease our Dacronian battles!" said Murray.

— From my upcoming book Stories I Once Thought Of But Then Abandoned One Sentence In Because Really What's Even The Point Anymore

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Blast from the Past. At Daily Kos on this date in 2012—President Obama making recess appointments to labor board, again braving GOP outrage:

President Obama is making recess appointments to the National Labor Relations Board in addition to his appointment of Richard Cordray to head the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. […] This is huge: Without these appointments, the NLRB would have been down to two members; it cannot make decisions without a three-member quorum. Republicans were determined to block Obama's NLRB nominations to shut down the board and prevent it from being able to pass rules like its recent moves streamlining union elections and requiring employers to put up posters informing workers of their existing legal rights. Obama's decision to recess appoint both these NLRB members and Cordray to the CFPB doesn't just put qualified people into the government—it enables the government agencies themselves to function.

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What's the cost of austerity?

The actual cost of severe austerity can't be calculated—the number of lives lost or dreams killed because of families free-falling into poverty isn't an easy number to add up. Now, a new report from the International Monetary Fund has at least quantified the economic damage of austerity ... and it's a number that will shock you.

First, some background. Back in October 2012, this is what the IMF reported:

Earlier this week, the International Monetary Fund made a striking admission in its new World Economic Outlook. The IMF’s chief economist, Olivier Blanchard, explained that recent efforts among wealthy countries to shrink their deficits — through tax hikes and spending cuts — have been causing far more economic damage than experts had assumed. (emphasis added)

At the time, Brad Plumer at The Washington Post explained the importance:

Economists tend to agree that tax increases and spending cuts hurt growth. The question is how much they hurt growth—a variable that usually changes at different points in time.

This matters a lot for policy. If tax hikes and spending cuts only hurt growth a little bit, then a government with debt problems will want to enact some austerity measures. If a tax increase, on average, raises $10 in revenue but reduces output by $6, that might be painful, but it will ultimately shrink the deficit. (Indeed, those are basically the numbers that policymakers in Britain and elsewhere had been using.) [...]

Blanchard is now arguing that the fiscal multiplier appears to have been much higher over the past few years than policymakers, including the IMF, had assumed. It’s not 0.6. It’s somewhere between 0.9 or 1.7. If true, then countries in Europe and the United States should have been pursuing stimulus measures to boost growth—and not insisting on budget cuts. (Not surprisingly, Paul Krugman is claiming vindication, since this was his view all along.) (emphasis added)

Now, a new IMF working paper released today details the true damage of austerity:

In a new paper published Thursday, IMF Economic Counsellor Olivier Blanchard and research-department economist Daniel Leigh show the IMF recommended slashing budgets too fast early in the euro crisis, starving many economies of much-needed growth.

In “Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers,” Messrs. Blanchard and Leigh calculate IMF and European economists underestimated the euro-for-euro effect of cutting government budgets. While economists expected that cutting a euro from the budget would cost around 50 cents in lost growth, the actual impact was more like 1.50 per euro.

You can read the paper here and Howard Sneider's take on it over at The Washington Post here.

In Greece, which has implemented draconian austerity measures at the request of the IMF, the European Commission and the European Central Bank in order to receive bailout funding, the results are seen on the streets where a middle class has plummeted into poverty. One out of three Greeks now lives in poverty and average salaries have been slashed to just several hundred net euros a month. Homelessness, which was rarely seen in that country, is now endemic in certain parts of Athens. The unemployment rate has reached a record 26 percent, with more than 50 percent of Greece's youth out of a job.

Greece received billions of euros in bailout funds, but a large part of why austerity didn't work in Greece is because it wasn't offset by any growth strategy. In a shocking example of how twisted reality became, Greece's bailout funds at one time were simply wired into an escrow account that the government couldn't touch and then wired back for debt service to European banks just days later (read the NYT report here). In other words, not only was there painful cuts, but any money coming into the country was spent almost exclusively on debt reduction rather than on stimulating the economy.

You would think that politicians and analysts here in the United States would take a lesson from the tragedy that has befallen Greece. Instead, as Media Matters documents today, pundits are using the situation there to call for more austerity here at home. (More great stuff from Albert Kleine over at Media Matters here.)

Some politicians recognize that austerity without a corresponding growth strategy is a recipe for disaster. Today, Portugal's president fought back:

President Anibal Cavaco Silva called for urgent action to halt the “recessionary spiral”, warning Europe’s leaders that the current course had become “socially unsustainable”.

In a speech to the nation, he said Portugal would “honour its international obligations”, but in the same breath called for a tough line with the European Union-International Monetary Fund Troika over the pace of fiscal tightening under Portugal’s €78bn (£63bn) loan package. “We have arguments, and we should use them firmly,” he said.

“Fiscal austerity is leading to declining output and lower tax revenue. We must stop this vicious circle,” he said, cautioning the Troika that there would be no way out of the crisis until policy was set in the interests of the “Portuguese people” as well as foreign creditors.

Portugal's president has also "asked the constitutional court to rule on the legality of tax rises that come into force this January as well as on further moves to dismantle the welfare state in the 2013 budget," saying that "[t]here are well-founded doubts over whether the distribution of sacrifice is just."

Austerity born on the backs of the 99 percent doesn't work. It not only doesn't fix the problem, it makes it worse by exacerbating a country's economic problems. The fact that austerity in Europe resulted in 1.50 euros of lost growth for every euro cut should serve as a major wake-up call to American politicians here at home. Giving in to the debt fetishists and cutting simply for the sake of cutting—and cutting from society's safety nets—while neglecting at the same time to push forward any robust pro-growth strategy ensures a nightmare situation. The middle class can't be sacrificed in an attempt to bring a country's books into the black.

Add Sen. Chuck Schumer to the list of Democrats that say there won't be a negotiation over the next debt ceiling:

“I think that risking government shutdown, risking not raising the debt ceiling, is playing with fire,” Schumer told reporters in the Capitol, in response to a question from TPM. “Anyone who wants to come and negotiate, and say ‘we will raise the debt ceiling only if you do A, B, C’ will not have a negotiating partner. And if then they don’t want to raise the debt ceiling, it’ll be on their shoulders. I would bet that they would not go forward with that.”

The White House has been forceful in their own assertions that there won't be any negotiation this time around; the ultraconservative Sen. John Cornyn, on the other hand, is the latest to say that the Republicans aren't going to budge unless Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security all get hit, and to very specifically threaten a government shutdown if the GOP doesn't get their way. If all parties here are sincere, that means that there is no deal possible, and that there will, in fact, be a government shutdown, right?

We'll see. There's still two months before this next self-inflicted fiasco deadline, after all; these are just the opening bids. Well, non-bids.

According to The Hill, two newly elected Democratic senators, Mazie Hirono and Heidi Heitkamp, are refusing to explicitly endorse the key element of the Merkley/Udall/Harkin proposal—the talking filibuster.

“She broadly supports the goal of filibuster reform but is reviewing the proposals on the table,” said a spokesman for Hirono.

Heitkamp said, “I’m not sure yet. I haven’t had a chance to get a complete brief.”

Because our endorsement of Mazie Hirono was dependent in large part for her support of effective filibuster reform, Daily Kos followed up with her office to verify this, and got essentially the same statement from a spokesman: "Senator Hirono supports filibuster reform and is still reviewing each of the proposals on the table."

In answering our endorsement questionnaire, Hirono said: "The misuse of the filibuster has become a disgrace in recent years. It has stopped the work of the Senate and been damaging to the institution." There are just a few proposals now on the table and only the Merkley/Udall/Harkin proposals have the potential to end the misuse of the filibuster. The only other option out there right now, not yet introduced as a resolution, is the weak McCain-Levin plan.

All of the other incoming freshman Democrats voice support for the talking filibuster. Even Virginia's Tim Kaine and Indiana's Joe Donnelly, who says that if you want to "declare filibuster [...] [y]ou have to earn it."

Hirono and Heitkamp, by the way, were included in Sen. Jeff Merkley's filibuster reformers group who he endorsed and raised money for in 2012.

Based on our endorsement and fundraising, and certainly Sen. Merkley's, Sen. Hirono needs to stand by her promise of real filibuster reform, and stand by Sen. Merkley. If you were a donor to her campaign, if you're from Hawaii and supported her, you can call her office at (202) 224-6361.

And if you haven't already, tell your Democratic senator to support the Merkley/Udall/Harkin proposal, and vote to make the filibuster a real, talking filibuster.

From the GREAT STATE OF MAINE…

Four. Not three. Not five. Not ten. I said four.

Make a note to give Bill Murray FDR a wink and a toast this Sunday. On January 6, 1941, Roosevelt gave his famous "Four Freedoms" State of the Union speech.  (You can read it and hear it via the FDR Library). While the oft-cited quartet---of speech, of religion, from want and from fear---is timeless, so too is this part of his address, which basically is the progressive playbook. Here's what the dirty effing Hyde Park Hippie bleated:

"The basic things expected by our people of their political and economic systems are simple. They are:

Equality of opportunity for youth and for others.

January 6, 1941

Jobs for those who can work.
Security for those who need it.
The ending of special privilege for the few.
The preservation of civil liberties for all.
The enjoyment of the fruits of scientific progress in a wider and constantly rising standard of living.

These are the simple, the basic things that must never be lost sight of in the turmoil and unbelievable complexity of our modern world. The inner and abiding strength of our economic and political systems is dependent upon the degree to which they fulfill these expectations.

Many subjects connected with our social economy call for immediate improvement. As examples: We should bring more citizens under the coverage of old-age pensions and unemployment insurance. We should widen the opportunities for adequate medical care. We should plan a better system by which persons deserving or needing gainful employment may obtain it."

We hear Eleanor loved it so much she gave her husband the first presidential fist-bump on record. (Sorry, Michelle.)

C'mon down and ice skate in the kiddie pool. Your west coast-friendly edition of  Cheers and Jeers starts below the fold... [Swoosh!!] RIGHTNOW! [Gong!!]

On Thursday, the first day of the 113th Congress, Sens. Jeff Merkley (D-OR), Tom Udall (D-NM) and Tom Harkin (D-IA) introduced resolutions to overhaul Senate filibuster rules. The Merkley/Udall/Harkin proposals would limit the filibuster to final passage of bills, ending the ability of the minority to prevent the Senate from even considering legislation. It would end the ability of the minority to block conference committees and, most importantly, it would require a real, old-fashioned talking filibuster, forcing the minority to hold the floor and work for their opposition.

Udall, Merkley and Harkin want to force senators who filibuster to actually speak on the floor. They argue it would greatly increase public accountability and require the minority to use time and energy to stall business.

“The filibuster, once used only on issues of personal principle, is now used regularly as an instrument of partisan politics,” Merkley said. “It hurts our ability to take on the big challenges we face as Americans. And we need to fix it. We must put an end to the secret, silent filibuster that is haunting the Senate.”

In a briefing with reporters Thursday, Merkley and Udall said that they believe they have the 51 votes for Harry Reid, should he decide to push the reforms with a simple majority vote. In terms of momentum for these reforms, that's critical as Reid talks to Mitch McConnell and other Democrats who are working on the weak McCain-Levin proposal.

With 51 votes for strong reform in his back pocket, he's in a much stronger negotiating position both with McConnell and the handful of very balky Democrats who are flirting with McCain-Levin, including Sens. David Pryor (AK), Dianne Feinstein (CA), Ben Cardin (MD), Carl Levin (MI), Max Baucus (MT), Chuck Schumer (NY), Jack Reed (RI) and Patrick Leahy (VT). They have the option of negotiating for real, substantial reforms that a majority of the Senate can agree upon, or seeing a simple majority of their colleagues set the rules.

Merkey, Udall, and Harkin now have two weeks to make their case. We can help them. Call Sen. Reid and tell him that that real filibuster reform has to happen at 202-224-3542.

And tell your Democratic senator to vote to make the filibuster a real, talking filibuster that requires affirmative votes to continue.

There's more discussion going on ericlewis0's diary.

Via Foreign Policy:

President Barack Obama is expected to name Chuck Hagel as his choice for defense secretary as early as Monday, as critics of the former Nebraska senator prepare to go to war to fight his expected nomination.

This continues the long tradition of Democratic presidents putting Republicans in the top Pentagon position for no clear reason. Hagel was (at the time) pro-Bush-wars and (more recently) fought against greater inclusion for women and for gay Americans in the military, all of which would seem to disqualify him from the top leadership spot; on the other hand, Republicans hate him too, so his nomination isn't necessarily going to be a slam dunk:

Three Senate Republicans have come out firmly against Hagel's potential nomination, Sens. John Cornyn (R-TX), Dan Coats (R-IN), and Tom Coburn (R-OK). Cornyn said he can't vote for Hagel due to Hagel's "problem with Israel." Coats said Hagel "has had so much disrespect for the military." Coburn said Hagel "does not have the experience to manage a very large organization like the Pentagon."

Other GOP senators have expressed reservations about Hagel without committing to a no vote. Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), who previously praised Hagel as a close and dear friend, suggested recently that Hagel is not a real Republican. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), said on Fox News Sunday, "There would be very little Republican support for his nomination. At the end of the day, there will be very few votes."

Does the administration consider the hostility from Republicans to be something that can be overcome, or are they considering it a plus—a demonstration that Hagel must be bipartisan, since pretty much everybody dislikes him? No clue. It seems a very, very odd choice, and it'll be interesting to see what arguments the administration uses to try to sell this nomination to the Senate.

Tell President Obama to appoint a Democrat to secretary of defense.

It sure is nice to be a senator, isn't it? Boozing it up in D.C., joyriding around Virginia in the middle of the night, running red lights, blowing a field sobriety test when you get pulled over—and then pretty much just walking away with a slap on the wrist:

Sen. Mike Crapo pleaded guilty to a drunken driving charge in Virginia on Friday, agreeing to have his license suspended for one year, take alcohol awareness classes and pay a $250 fine.

A 180-day jail sentence for the Idaho Republican has been suspended on the condition of good behavior. [...]

A second charge, for running a red light, was dropped.

Sure, you might think that Sen. Crapo is getting off easy because he's a senator. But, see, he had a really good reason for getting hammered:

“It was a poor choice to use alcohol to relieve stress, and was at odds with my personally held and religious beliefs, ” Crapo said outside the Alexandria General District Court.

See? Most people use alcohol for bad reasons. Or because using alcohol is consistent with their personally held and religious beliefs. And that's certainly no excuse for drunk driving. But the good senator? He was stressed, see, because being a Republican obstructionist is damned hard work and sometimes, even if you claim to be a devout Mormon who does not drink, well, you've got to find some way to relieve your stress, and what better way than to knock back a few vodka tonics—which apparently, even though Crapo is not a drinker, he just happened to have laying around in his D.C. apartment, where he was drinking alone before he decided to "to go out for a drive and get out of my apartment and try to wind down."

Uh huh.

But whatever. That's all tonic water under the bridge now because Crapo said he's "profoundly sorry" and "grateful to have this matter resolved and will follow through on the sentence imposed by the court." Big of him to promise to fulfill the court sentence, isn't it?

Despite Crapo's insistence that this is all over now, the question still remains: Why was Crapo in Virginia on the Sunday before Christmas instead of Idaho, with his wife and five children, after all his fellow members of Congress had gone home for the holiday?

Reposted from Daily Kos Economics by Roosevelt Institute By Tim Price, originally posted on Next New Deal

Click here to receive the Daily Digest via email.

America Is Having the Wrong Fiscal Argument (Harper's)

Roosevelt Institute Senior Fellow Jeff Madrick argues three groups have created a pointless deficit frenzy: tea partiers, centrists with an austerity fetish, and the CBO, whose conservative assumptions are mistaken for neutral because the law says they must be.

Battles of the Budget (NYT)

Paul Krugman writes that the fiscal cliff deal went better for progressives than it could have, but despite President Obama's assurances that he won't be blackmailed over the debt ceiling, some still worry he'll cave when he starts receiving the GOP's ransom notes.

The cliff deal is better than it looks (WaPo)

E.J. Dionne thinks liberals should quit their hand-wringing over a flawed deal that will nonetheless make the tax code more progressive, and ask barely reelected House Speaker John Boehner if he thinks President Obama gave away too much to conservatives.

Obama's Biggest Blemish (Prospect)

Jamelle Bouie notes that while many serious, respectable people are now clucking their tongues and shaking their heads over the terrible shame of Obama's failure to address the national debt, 14 million people left unemployed is apparently a big whatever.

The Supreme Court and the Next Fiscal Cliff (NYT)

Simon Johnson writes that if House Republicans renew their threats to blow up the economy over the debt ceiling, the White House may be forced to break it and let the Supreme Court sort it out later. Somewhere in D.C., John Roberts pours himself a stiff drink.

Republicans Have a Habit of Blocking Disaster Relief for Americans (MoJo)

Tim Murphy points out that although Chris Christie and Peter King might have just noticed that their party isn't big on coughing up cash for people in need, Republicans in Congress have a proven track record of being last responders in times of emergency. 

What's Inside America's Banks? (The Atlantic)

Frank Partnoy and Jesse Eisinger argue that four years after the financial crisis, big banks remain "black boxes" and efforts to police them are like riddles wrapped in enigmas wrapped in regulations. If we want straightforward banking, we need straightforward rules.

Financial reform battle continues over Dodd-Frank law (WaPo)

Danielle Douglas writes that despite continued Republican efforts to whittle away key provisions of Dodd-Frank, there's some potential for a bipartisan consensus that as long as the law's not going anywhere, policymakers should try to make sure it actually works.

Families Shoulder Heftier Burdens as College Debt Swells (ProPublica)

Marian Wang reports that with total college debt in the U.S. now surpassing $1 trillion, students and their parents face a crushing stack of bills, an anemic job market, and an abusive private loan industry. And they say college doesn't prepare people for the real world.

Good Riddance to Rottenest Congress in History (Bloomberg)

Yesterday marked the official conclusion of the 112th Congress. In his eulogy, Ezra Klein notes just how little that august body accomplished, which might be for the best considering the economic policies it did implement were like Sideshow Bob stepping on a rake.

• Today's comic by Mark Fiore is Holiday journalism:
  
  
• What's coming up on Sunday Kos ...
  

  • Two decades later, 'Pump Up the Volume' looks unexpectedly and unfortunately ahead of its time, by Laura Clawson
  • You want to compare the US budget to a family budget? Let's be real about it, by Laura Clawson
  • Kings and crowns of gold, by Denise Oliver Velez
  • The so very charitable Ari Fleischer, by Dante Atkins
  • Austerity Kabuki, by Laurence Lewis
  • Marriage equality's biggest foe says farewell to optimism, by Scott Wooledge

• In Virginia, downing multiple shots of vodka before going out to endanger lives gets you a slap on the wrist:
  
  
  Sen Mike Crapo R-ID pleads guilty to drunk driving charge, fined $250, gets 1 year suspension of driver's license
  — @jamiedupree via TweetDeck
• Need a pair of tube socks ... or a $7500 gold medallion?

• Do you really like President Barack Obama? Are you really, really excited that he won re-election? Has the "fiscal cliff" deal somehow left you with $7,500 burning a hole in your pocket? Then step right up to the official store of the 57th presidential inauguration.

  Taking a page from the Obama campaign’s successful online store, the 2013 Presidential Inauguration Committee has launched an online site where Americans can pick up everything from $15 tube socks (“a fun and stylish way to commemorate the 57th Presidential Inauguration” the site says) to a set of silver and gold medallions with a $7,500 price tag (“comes with a certificate of authenticity and decorative display box,” the site says. Beware the inauthentic presidential inauguration medallions).

• Am I the only one who was sad when Rep. Wack-a-doodle dropped out?
  
  
  One year ago today Michele Bachmann dropped out of the race for president.  http://t.co/...
  — @RachelSB via Safari on iOS
• Guns don't kill people, video games kill people:
  

  A Connecticut community is to hold an amnesty of violent video games in the wake of last month's mass shooting in Newtown.

  Organisers Southington SOS plan to offer gift certificates in exchange for donated games, which will be burned.

  To be fair, they don't claim video games were used to brutally slaughter 26 people in Newton, but they're going to burn those games anyway because ... uh ...
• Well, this is good to know:
  

  A police officer can't pull you over and arrest you just because you gave him the finger, a federal appeals court declared Thursday.

  In a 14-page opinion, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 2nd Circuit ruled that the "ancient gesture of insult is not the basis for a reasonable suspicion of a traffic violation or impending criminal activity."

• Heterosexual couples nutjobs beware: Rhode Island is coming for your marriage:
  

  With the 2013 legislation session in just its third day, lawmakers in the House and Senate introduced bills Thursday that would legalize same-sex marriage. [...]

  The bills would define marriage as the "legally recognized union" of two people.

• And in related news:
  

  Homo-hatin’ Maggie Gallagher is hanging it up, and by ‘hanging it up’ I mean that Universal Uclick is “retiring her column“, and by ‘retiring her column’ they mean they can’t find anyone who wants to pay for the right to run Gallagher’s column anymore.

  So sad.

  Keep in mind that Uclick manages to syndicate both Kathryn Jean Lopez AND Marmaduke, so they could probably sell a subscription to Juggs magazine to Lyndsey Graham without breaking a sweat.

  But, no, nobody wants to read ol’ Maggie Gallagher anymore because, after seventeen years of Mag’s ragging on the gays for wanting to be treated like Real Americans, America is gayer than ever and now everyone is gay sexing and gay marrying and gay raising gay children with each other. So one might say: Mission NOT Accomplished. According to Gallagher, in her “So Long, Farewell, I Hate Your Fucking Faces” parting column, she would have gotten away with it if it weren’t for those non-marrying bros who just, y’now, spend their days and nights chillin’, poundin’ down brews and playing video game porn.

• Okay, okay, this is really dumb ... but it's funny:  Lemur who moves like Jagger: Extraordinary pictures show Rolling Stones frontman Mick has a double
• On today's Kagro in the Morning show, a nice Friday mix. There's Sandy relief, plus the counting of the electoral vote in Congress. Greg Dworkin joined to discuss Daily Kos Radio and the future of radio technology, the platinum trillion dollar coin, and the curious Republican habit of obfuscation and denial on anything they oppose. Then, another aside about guns, and a brief explanation of the trillion dollar coin proposal. And finally: what happened yesterday with the filibuster reform effort, should you be worried, what's likely to come next, and is this whole thing really working?

Karl Rove might still be waiting for Ohio to come through with the unskewed, non-gay wizard math, but as for the rest of the country:

It's official. A tally of the Electoral College vote affirms President Barack Obama's re-election.

Don't you just love winning?