Released: August 2, 2012

This report presents the major assumptions of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) used to generate the projections in the Annual Energy Outlook 2012, including general features of the model structure, assumptions concerning energy markets, and the key input data and parameters that are the most significant in formulating the model results. (archived versions)

Released: June 25, 2012

The AEO Supplemental tables were generated for the reference case of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) using the National Energy Modeling System, a computer-based model which produces annual projections of energy markets. Most of the tables were not published in the AEO, but contain regional and other more detailed projections underlying the AEO projections. (archived versions)

Released: June 25, 2012

The complete version of Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (AEO2012) which, in addition to the Reference case projections, includes 29 alternative cases which show how different assumptions regarding market, policy, and technology drivers affect projections of energy production, consumption, technology, and market trends and the direction they may take in the future. (archived versions)

Released: March 16, 2012

The Annual Energy Outlook Retrospective Review provides a yearly comparison between realized energy outcomes and the Reference case projections included in previous AEOs beginning with 1982. This edition of the report adds the AEO 2011 projections and updates the historical data to incorporate the latest data revisions. (archived versions)

Released: December 16, 2010

Presented by: Richard Newell, Administrator, to: The Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies; Washington, DC

Released: November 18, 2010

This paper provides information on the cost of building new electricity power plants. These cost estimates are critical inputs in the development of energy projections and analyses.

Released: October 18, 2010

This report responds to a letter dated August 16, 2010, from Janice Mays, Staff Director of the U.S. House of Representatives' Committee on Ways and Means, requesting that the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) analyze several provisions included in the July 26, 2010, discussion draft of the Domestic Manufacturing and Energy Jobs Act of 2010.

Released: May 11, 2010

Over the 1995-2005 period, crude oil prices and U.S. natural gas prices tended to move together, which supported the conclusion that the markets for the two commodities were connected. Figure 26 illustrates the fairly stable ratio over that period between the price of low-sulfur light crude oil at Cushing, Oklahoma, and the price of natural gas at the Henry Hub on an energy-equivalent basis.

Released: May 11, 2010

On April 1, 2010, the EPA issued a set of new guidelines to several of its Regional offices regarding the compliance of surface coal mining operations in Appalachia with the provisions of the Clean Water Act (CWA), the National Environmental Policy Act, and the environmental justice Executive Order (E.O. 12898). The stated purpose of the guidance was to explain more fully the approach that the EPA will be following in permit reviews, and to provide additional assurance that its Regional offices use clear, consistent, and science-based standards in reviewing the permits. Although the new guidelines go into effect immediately, they will be subjected to review both by the public and by the EPAs Science Advisory Board, with a set of final guidelines to be issued no later than April 1, 2011.

Released: May 11, 2010

Nuclear power plants generate approximately 20 percent of U.S. electricity, and the plants in operation today are often seen as attractive assets in the current environment of uncertainty about future fossil fuel prices, high construction costs for new power plants (particularly nuclear plants), and the potential enactment of GHG regulations. Existing nuclear power plants have low fuel costs and relatively high power output. However, there is uncertainty about how long they will be allowed to continue operating.

Released: May 11, 2010

Energy intensity (energy consumption per dollar of real GDP) indicates how much energy a country uses to produce its goods and services. From the early 1950s to the early 1970s, U.S. total primary energy consumption and real GDP increased at nearly the same annual rate (Figure 17). During that period, real oil prices remained virtually flat. In contrast, from the mid-1970s to 2008, the relationship between energy consumption and real GDP growth changed, with primary energy consumption growing at less than one-third the previous average rate and real GDP growth continuing to grow at its historical rate. The decoupling of real GDP growth from energy consumption growth led to a decline in energy intensity that averaged 2.8 percent per year from 1973 to 2008. In the AEO2010 Reference case, energy intensity continues to decline, at an average annual rate of 1.9 percent from 2008 to 2035.

Released: May 11, 2010

Environmental and energy security concerns related to petroleum use for transportation fuels, together with recent growth in U.S. proved reserves and technically recoverable natural gas resources, including shale gas, have sparked interest in policy proposals aimed at stimulating increased use of natural gas as a vehicle fuel, particularly for heavy trucks.

Released: May 11, 2010

Provides a review of the treatment of Federal fuels taxes and tax credits in AEO2010.

Released: May 11, 2010

Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, Climate Initiative, and Midwestern Greenhouse Gas Reduction Accord

Released: May 11, 2010

State RPS programs continue to play an important role in AEO2009, growing in number while existing programs are modified with more stringent targets. In total, 28 States and the District of Columbia now have mandatory RPS programs (Table 3), and at least 4 other States have voluntary renewable energy programs. In the absence of a Federal renewable electricity standard, each State determines its own levels of generation, eligible technologies, and noncompliance penalties. The growth in State renewable energy requirements has led to an expansion of renewable energy credit (REC) markets, which vary from State to State. Credit prices depend on the State renewable requirements and how easily they can be met.

Released: May 11, 2010

Realized improvements in energy efficiency generally rely on a combination of technology and economics [47]. The figure below illustrates the role of technology assumptions in the AEO2010 projections for energy efficiency in the residential and commercial buildings sector. Projected energy consumption in the Reference case is compared with projections in the Best Available Technology, High Technology, and 2009 Technology cases and an estimate based on an assumption of no change in efficiency for building shells and equipment.

Released: May 11, 2010

Growth in U.S. energy use is linked to population growth through increases in demand for housing, commercial floorspace, transportation, manufacturing, and services. This affects not only the level of energy use, but also the mix of fuels and consumption by sector.

Released: May 11, 2010

ARRA, signed into law in mid-February 2009, provides significant new Federal funding, loan guarantees, and tax credits to stimulate investments in energy efficiency and renewable energy. The provisions of ARRA were incorporated initially as part of a revision to the AEO2009 Reference case that was released in April 2009, and they also are included in AEO2010.

Released: May 11, 2010

The AEO2010 Reference case is best described as a current laws and regulations case, because it generally assumes that existing laws and fully promulgated regulations will remain unchanged throughout the projection period, unless the legislation establishing them specifically calls for them to end or change. The Reference case often serves as a starting point for the analysis of proposed legislative or regulatory changes, a task that would be difficult if the Reference case included projected legislative or regulatory changes.

Released: May 11, 2010

On December 23, 2008, the D.C. Circuit Court remanded but did not vacate CAIR, overriding its previous decision on February 8, 2008, to remand and vacate CAIR. The December decision, which is reflected in AEO2010, allows CAIR to remain in effect, providing time for the EPA to modify the rule in order to address objections raised by the Court in its earlier decision. A similar rule, referred to as the CAMR, which was to set up a cap-and-trade system for reducing mercury emissions by approximately 70 percent, is not represented in the AEO2010 projections, because it was vacated by the D.C. Circuit Court in February 2008.

Released: May 11, 2010

CO2 emissions from the combustion of biomass [75] to produce energy are excluded from the energy-related CO2 emissions reported in AEO2010. According to current international convention, carbon released through biomass combustion is excluded from reported energy-related emissions. The release of carbon from biomass combustion is assumed to be balanced by the uptake of carbon when the feedstock is grown, resulting in zero net emissions over some period of time]. However, analysts have debated whether increased use of biomass energy may result in a decline in terrestrial carbon stocks, leading to a net positive release of carbon rather than the zero net release assumed by its exclusion from reported energy-related emissions.

Released: May 11, 2010

In AEO2010, the price of light, low-sulfur (or sweet) crude oil delivered at Cushing, Oklahoma, is tracked to represent movements in world oil prices. EIA makes projections of future supply and demand for total liquids, which includes conventional petroleum liquidssuch as conventional crude oil, natural gas plant liquids, and refinery gainin addition to unconventional liquids, which include biofuels, bitumen, coal-to-liquids (CTL), gas-to-liquids (GTL), extra-heavy oils, and shale oil.

Released: May 11, 2010

To the extent possible, AEO2010 incorporates the impacts of State laws requiring the addition of renewable generation or capacity by utilities doing business in the States. Currently, 30 States and the District of Columbia have enforceable RPS or similar laws). Under such standards, each State determines its own levels of generation, eligible technologies, and noncompliance penalties. AEO2010 includes the impacts of all laws in effect as of September 2009 (with the exception of Hawaii, because NEMS provides electricity market projections for the continental United States only).

Released: May 11, 2010

Pursuant to the Presidents announcement of a National Fuel Efficiency Policy, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) and the EPA have promulgated nationally coordinated standards for tailpipe CO2-equivalent emissions and fuel economy for light-duty vehicles (LDVs) [16], which includes both passenger cars and light-duty trucks. In the joint rulemaking, EPA is enacting CO2-equivalent emissions standards under the Clean Air Act (CAA), and NHTSA is enacting companion CAFE standards under the Energy Policy and Conservation Act, as amended by EISA2007.

Released: May 11, 2010

Production from low-permeability reservoirs, including shale gas and tight gas, has become a major source of domestic natural gas supply. In 2008, low-permeability reservoirs accounted for about 40 percent of natural gas production and about 35 percent of natural gas consumption in the United States. Permeability is a measure of the rate at which liquids and gases can move through rock. Low-permeability natural gas reservoirs encompass the shale, sandstone, and carbonate formations whose natural permeability is roughly 0.1 millidarcies or below. (Permeability is measured in darcies.)

Released: August 4, 2009

This report responds to a request from Chairman Henry Waxman and Chairman Edward Markey for an analysis of H.R. 2454, the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009 (ACESA). ACESA, as passed by the House of Representatives on June 26, 2009, is a complex bill that regulates emissions of greenhouse gases through market-based mechanisms, efficiency programs, and economic incentives.

Released: April 21, 2009

This report updates the Reference Case presented in the Annual Energy Outlook 2009 based on recently enacted legislation and the changing macroeconomic environment.

Released: March 31, 2009

In AEO2009, E10a gasoline blend containing 10 percent ethanolis assumed to be the maximum ethanol blend allowed in California RFG, as opposed to the 5.7-percent blend assumed in earlier AEOs. The 5.7-percent blend had reflected decisions made when California decided to phase out use of the additive methyl tertiary butyl ether in its RFG program in 2003, opting instead to use ethanol in the minimum amount that would meet the requirement for 2.0 percent oxygen content under the CAA provisions in effect at that time

Released: March 31, 2009

Construction costs for new power plants have increased at an extraordinary rate over the past several years. One study, published in mid-2008, reported that construction costs had more than doubled since 2000, with most of the increase occurring since 2005. Construction costs have increased for plants of all types, including coal, nuclear, natural gas, and wind.

Released: March 31, 2009

CAIR is a cap-and-trade program promulgated by the EPA in 2005, covering 28 eastern U.S. States and the District of Columbia [29]. It was designed to reduce sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions in order to help States meet their National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) for ozone and particulate matter (PM2.5) and to further emissions reductions already achieved through the Acid Rain Program and the NOx State Implementation Plan call program. The rule was set to commence in 2009 for seasonal and annual NOx emissions and in 2010 for SO2 emissions.

Released: March 31, 2009

On February 8, 2008, a three-judge panel on the D.C. Circuit of the U.S. Court of Appeals issued a decision to vacate CAMR. In its ruling, the panel cited the history of hazardous air pollutant regulation under Section 112 of the Clean Air Act (CAA) [28]. Section 112, as written by Congress, listed emitted mercury as a hazardous air pollutant that must be subject to regulation unless it can be proved harmless to public welfare and the environment. In 2000, the EPA ruled that mercury was indeed hazardous and must be regulated under Section 112 and, therefore, subjected to the best available control technology for mitigation.

Released: March 31, 2009

The Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 (Public Law 110-343), which was signed into law on October 3, 2008, incorporates EIEA2008 in Division B. Provisions in EIEA2008 that require funding appropriations to be implemented, whose impact is highly uncertain or that require further specification by Federal agencies or Congress, are not included in AEO2009.

Released: March 31, 2009

Provides a review and update of the handling of Federal fuels taxes and tax credits, focusing primarily on areas for which regulations have changed or the handling of taxes or credits has been updated in AEO2009.

Released: March 31, 2009

EISA2007 requires the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) to raise the CAFE standards for passenger cars and light trucks to ensure that the average tested fuel economy of the combined fleet of all new passenger cars and light trucks sold in the United States in model year (MY) 2020 equals or exceeds 35 mpg, 34 percent above the current fleet average of 26.4 mpg. Pursuant to this legislation, NHTSA recently proposed revised CAFE standards that substantially increase the minimum fuel economy requirements for passenger cars and light trucks for MY 2011 through MY 2015.

Released: March 31, 2009

Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative and Western Climate Initiative

Released: March 31, 2009

State appliance standards have existed for decades, starting with Californias enforcement of minimum efficiency requirements for refrigerators and several other products in 1979. In 1987, recognizing that different efficiency standards for the same products in different States could create problems for manufacturers, Congress enacted the National Appliance Energy Conservation Act (NAECA), which initially covered 12 products. The Energy Policy Act of 1992 (EPACT92), EPACT2005, and EISA2007 added additional residential and commercial products to the 12 products originally specified under NAECA.

Released: March 31, 2009

Title XVII of EPACT2005 [20] authorized DOE to issue loan guarantees to new or improved technology projects that avoid, reduce, or sequester GHGs. In 2006, DOE issued its first solicitation for $4 billion in loan guarantees for non-nuclear technologies. The issue of the size of the program was addressed subsequently in the Consolidated Appropriation Act of 2008 (the FY08 Appropriations Act) passed in December 2008, which limited future solicitations to $38.5 billion and stated that authority to make the guarantees would end on September 30, 2009. The legislation also allocated the $38.5 billion cap as follows: $18.5 billion for nuclear plants; $6 billion for CCS technologies; $2 billion for advanced coal gasification units; $2 billion for advanced nuclear facilities for the front end of the nuclear fuel cycle; and $10 billion for renewable, conservation, distributed energy, and transmission/ distribution technologies. DOE also was required to submit all future solicitations to both the House and Senate Appropriations Committees for approval.

Released: March 31, 2009

Tax incentives have been an important factor in the growth of renewable generation over the past decade, and they could continue to be important in the future. The Energy Tax Act of 1978 (Public Law 95-618) established ITCs for wind, and EPACT92 established the Renewable Electricity Production Credit (more commonly called the PTC) as an incentive to promote certain kinds of renewable generation beyond wind on the basis of production levels. Specifically, the PTC provided an inflation-adjusted tax credit of 1.5 cents per kilowatthour for generation sold from qualifying facilities during the first 10 years of operation. The credit was available initially to wind plants and facilities that used closed-loop biomass fuels [75] and were placed in service after passage of the Act and before June 1999.

Released: March 31, 2009

The oil prices reported in AEO2009 represent the price of light, low-sulfur crude oil in 2007 dollars [50]. Projections of future supply and demand are made for liquids, a term used to refer to those liquids that after processing and refining can be used interchangeably with petroleum products. In AEO2009, liquids include conventional petroleum liquidssuch as conventional crude oil and natural gas plant liquidsin addition to unconventional liquids, such as biofuels, bitumen, coal-to-liquids (CTL), gas-to-liquids (GTL), extra-heavy oils, and shale oil.

Released: March 31, 2009

PHEVs have gained significant attention in recent years, as concerns about energy, environmental, and economic securityincluding rising gasoline prices have prompted efforts to improve vehicle fuel economy and reduce petroleum consumption in the transportation sector. PHEVs are particularly well suited to meet these objectives, because they have the potential to reduce petroleum consumption both through fuel economy gains and by substituting electric power for gasoline use.

Released: March 31, 2009

The U.S. offshore is estimated to contain substantial resources of both crude oil and natural gas, but until recently some of the areas of the lower 48 OCS have been under leasing moratoria. The Presidential ban on offshore drilling in portions of the lower 48 OCS was lifted in July 2008, and the Congressional ban was allowed to expire in September 2008, removing regulatory obstacles to development of the Atlantic and Pacific OCS.

Released: March 31, 2009

Oil shales are fine-grained sedimentary rocks that contain relatively large amounts of kerogen, which can be converted into liquid and gaseous hydrocarbons (petroleum liquids, natural gas liquids, and methane) by heating the rock, usually in the absence of oxygen, to 650 to 700 degrees Fahrenheit (in situ retorting) or 900 to 950 degrees Fahrenheit (surface retorting) [60]. (Oil shale is, strictly speaking, a misnomer in that the rock is not necessarily a shale and contains no crude oil.) The richest U.S. oil shale deposits are located in Northwest Colorado, Northeast Utah, and Southwest Wyoming. Currently, those deposits are the focus of petroleum industry research and potential future production. Among the three States, the richest oil shale deposits are on Federal lands in Northwest Colorado.

Released: March 31, 2009

At least three alternatives have been proposed over the years for bringing sizable volumes of natural gas from Alaskas remote North Slope to market in the lower 48 States: a pipeline interconnecting with the existing pipeline system in central Alberta, Canada; a GTL plant on the North Slope; and a large LNG export facility at Valdez, Alaska. NEMS explicitly models the pipeline and GTL options [63]. The what if LNG option is not modeled in NEMS.

Released: March 31, 2009

If oil and natural gas were perfect substitutes in all markets where they are used, market forces would be expected to drive their delivered prices to near equality on an energy-equivalent basis. The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil generally is denominated in terms of barrels, where 1 barrel has an energy content of approximately 5.8 million Btu. The price of natural gas (at the Henry Hub), in contrast, generally is denominated in million Btu. Thus, if the market prices of the two fuels were equal on the basis of their energy contents, the ratio of the crude oil price (the spot price for WTI, or low-sulfur light, crude oil) to the natural gas price (the Henry Hub spot price) would be approximately 6.0. From 1990 through 2007, however, the ratio of natural gas prices to crude oil prices averaged 8.6; and in the AEO2009 projections from 2008 through 2030, it averages 7.7 in the low oil price case, 14.6 in the reference case, and 20.2 in the high oil price case.

Released: March 13, 2009

Concerns about potential climate change driven by rising atmospheric concentrations of GHGs have grown over the past two decades, both domestically and abroad. In the United States, potential policies to limit or reduce GHG emissions are in various stages of development at the State, regional, and Federal levels. In addition to ongoing uncertainty with respect to future growth in energy demand and the costs of fuel, labor, and new plant construction, U.S. electric power companies must consider the effects of potential policy changes to limit or reduce GHG emissions that would significantly alter their planning and operating decisions. The possibility of such changes may already be affecting planning decisions for new generating capacity.

Released: March 13, 2009

From 1982 through 2008, Congress annually enacted appropriations riders prohibiting the Minerals Management Service (MMS) of the U.S. Department of the Interior from conducting activities related to leasing, exploration, and production of oil and natural gas on much of the Federal OCS. Further, a separate executive ban (originally put in place in 1990 by President George H.W. Bush and later extended by President William J. Clinton through 2012) also prohibited leasing on the OCS, with the exception of the Western Gulf of Mexico, portions of the Central and Eastern Gulf of Mexico, and Alaska. In combination, those actions prohibited drilling along the Atlantic and Pacific coasts, in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and in portions of the central Gulf of Mexico. The Gulf of Mexico Energy Security Act of 2006 (Public Law 109-432) imposed yet a third ban on drilling through 2022 on tracts in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico that are within 125 miles of Florida, east of a dividing line known as the Military Mission Line, and in the Central Gulf of Mexico within 100 miles of Florida.

Released: September 24, 2008

Weather-related energy use, in the form of heating, cooling, and ventilation, accounted for more than 40 percent of all delivered energy use in residential and commercial buildings in 2006. Given the relatively large amount of energy affected by ambient temperature in the buildings sector, EIA has reevaluated what it considers normal weather for purposes of projecting future energy use for heating, cooling, and ventilation. In AEO2008, estimates of normal heating and cooling degree-days are based on the population-weighted average for the 10-year period from 1997 through 2006.

Released: September 24, 2008

From the late 1970s through 2002, steel, cement, and concrete prices followed a general downward trend. Since then, however, iron and steel prices have increased by 8 percent in 2003, 10 percent in 2004, and 31 percent in 2005. Although iron and steel prices declined in 2006, early data for 2007 show another increase. Cement and concrete prices, as well as the composite cost index for all construction commodities, have shown similar trends but with smaller increases in 2004 and 2005.

Released: September 24, 2008

Currently, distributed generation provides a very small share of residential and commercial electricity requirements in the United States. The AEO2005 reference case projects a significant increase in electricity generation in the buildings sector, but distributed generation is expected to remain a small contributor to the sectors energy needs. Although the advent of higher energy prices or more rapid improvement in technology could increase the use of distributed generation relative to the reference case projection, the vast majority of electricity used in buildings is projected to continue to be purchased from the grid.

Released: June 26, 2008

U.S. imports of LNG in 2007 were more than triple the 2000 total, and they are expected to grow in the long term as North Americas conventional natural gas production declines. With U.S. dependence on LNG imports increasing, competitive forces in the international markets for natural gas in general and LNG in particular will play a larger role in shaping the U.S. market for LNG. Key factors currently shaping the future of the global LNG market include the evolution of project economics, worldwide demand for natural gas, government policies that affect the development and use of natural resources in countries with LNG facilities, and changes in seasonal patterns of LNG trade.

Released: June 26, 2008

On February 9, 2007, the EPA released its MSAT2 rule, which will establish controls on gasoline, passenger vehicles, and portable fuel containers. The controls are designed to reduce emissions of benzene and other hazardous air pollutants. Benzene is a known carcinogen, and the EPA estimates that mobile sources produced more than 70 percent of all benzene emissions in 1999. Other mobile source air toxics, including 1,3-butadiene, formaldehyde, acetaldehyde, acrolein, and naphthalene, also are thought to increase cancer rates or contribute to other serious health problems.

Released: June 26, 2008

Title XVII of EPACT2005 authorized DOE to issue loan guarantees for projects involving new or improved technologies to avoid, reduce, or sequester GHGs. The law specified that the amount of the guarantee would be up to 80 percent of a project's cost. EPACT2005 also specified that DOE must receive funds equal to the subsidy cost either through the Federal appropriations process or from the firm receiving the guarantee [24]. As discussed in AEO2007, this program, by lowering borrowing costs, can have a major impact on the economics of capital-intensive technologies.

Released: June 26, 2008

AEO2008 defines the world oil price as the price of light, low-sulfur crude oil delivered in Cushing, Oklahoma. Since 2003, both above ground and below ground factors have contributed to a sustained rise in nominal world oil prices, from $31 per barrel in 2003 to $69 per barrel in 2007. The AEO2008 reference case outlook for world oil prices is higher than in the AEO2007 reference case. The main reasons for the adoption of a higher reference case price outlook include continued significant expansion of world demand for liquids, particularly in non- OECD countries, which include China and India; the rising costs of conventional non-OPEC supply and unconventional liquids production; limited growth in non-OPEC supplies despite higher oil prices; and the inability or unwillingness of OPEC member countries to increase conventional crude oil production to levels that would be required for maintaining price stability. EIA will continue to monitor world oil price trends and may need to make further adjustments in future AEOs.

Released: June 26, 2008

Development of U.S. energy resources and the permitting and construction of large energy facilities have become increasingly difficult over the past 20 years, and they could become even more difficult in the future. Growing public concern about global warming and CO2 emissions also casts doubt on future consumption of fossil fuelsparticularly coal, which releases the largest amount of CO2 per unit of energy produced. Even without regulations to limit greenhouse gas emissions in the United States, the investment community may already be limiting the future use of some energy options. In addition, there is considerable uncertainty about the future availability of, and access to, both domestic and foreign natural gas resources.

Released: June 26, 2008

States are moving forward with implementation plans for the Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR) [42]. The program, promulgated by the EPA in March 2005, is a cap-and-trade system designed to reduce emissions of SO2 and NOx. States originally had until March 2007 to submit implementation plans, but the deadline has been extended by another year. CAIR covers 28 eastern States and the District of Columbia. States have the option to participate in the cap-andtrade plan or devise their own plans, which can be more stringent than the Federal requirements. To date, no State has indicated an intent to form NOx and SO2 programs with emissions limits stricter than those in CAIR, and it is expected that all States will participate in the EPA-administered cap-and-trade program. CAIR remains on schedule for implementation, and AEO2008 includes CAIR by assuming that all required States will meet only the Federal requirement and will trade credits.

Released: June 26, 2008

The AEO2008 reference case incorporates current regulations that pertain to the energy industry. This section describes the handling of Federal taxes and tax credits in AEO2008, focusing primarily on areas where regulations have changed or the handling of taxes or tax credits has been updated.

Released: June 26, 2008

In recent years, the AEO has tracked the growing number of States that have adopted requirements or goals for renewable energy. While there is no Federal renewable generation mandate, the States have been adopting such standards for some time. AEO2005 provided a summary of all existing programs in effect at that time [29], and subsequent AEOs have examined new policies or changes to existing ones [30,31]. Since the publication of AEO2007, four States have enacted new RPS legislation, and five others have strengthened their existing RPS programs. In total, 25 States and the District of Columb

Released: June 26, 2008

The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 was signed into law on December 19, 2007, and became Public Law 110-140 [8]. Provisions in EISA2007 that require funding appropriations to be implemented, whose impact is highly uncertain, or that require further specification by Federal agencies or Congress are not included in AEO2008. For example, EIA does not try to anticipate policy responses to the many studies required by EISA2007, nor to predict the impact of research and development (R&D) funding authorizations included in the bill. Moreover, AEO2008 does not include any provision that addresses a level of detail beyond that modeled in NEMS, which was used to develop the AEO2008 projections. AEO2008 addresses only those provisions in EISA2007 that establish specific tax credits, incentives, or standards, including the following:

Released: March 11, 2007

For the industrial sector, EIAs analysis and projection efforts generally have focused on the energy-intensive industriesfood, bulk chemicals, refining, glass, cement, steel, and aluminumwhere energy cost averages 4.8 percent of annual operating cost. Detailed process flows and energy intensity indicators have been developed for narrowly defined industry groups in the energy-intensive manufacturing sector. The non-energy-intensive manufacturing industries, where energy cost averages 1.9 percent of annual operating cost, previously have received somewhat less attention, however. In AEO2006, energy demand projections were provided for two broadly aggregated industry groups in the non-energy-intensive manufacturing sector: metal-based durables and other non-energy-intensive. In the AEO2006 projections, the two groups accounted for more than 50 percent of the projected increase in industrial natural gas consumption from 2004 to 2030.

Released: March 11, 2007

Residential and commercial electricity consumption for miscellaneous services has grown significantly in recent years and currently accounts for more electricity use than any single major end-use service in either sector (including space heating, space cooling, water heating, and lighting). In the residential sector, a proliferation of consumer electronics and information technology equipment has driven much of the growth. In the commercial sector, telecommunications and network equipment and new advances in medical imaging have contributed to recent growth in miscellaneous electricity use

Released: March 11, 2007

Energy consumption in the end-use demand sectorsresidential, commercial, industrial, and transportationgenerally shows only limited change when energy prices increase. Several factors that limit the sensitivity of end-use energy demand to price signals are common across the end-use sectors. For example, because energy generally is consumed in long-lived capital equipment, short-run consumer responses to changes in energy prices are limited to reductions in the use of energy services or, in a few cases, fuel switching; and because energy services affect such critical lifestyle areas as personal comfort, medical services, and travel, end-use consumers often are willing to absorb price increases rather than cut back on energy use, especially when they are uncertain whether price increases will be long-lasting. Manufacturers, on the other hand, often are able to pass along higher energy costs, especially in cases where energy inputs are a relatively minor component of production costs. In economic terms, short-run energy demand typically is inelastic, and long-run energy demand is less inelastic or moderately elastic at best.

Released: March 11, 2007

The push by some States to restructure electricity markets progressed rapidly throughout the late 1990s. Although the energy crisis in California during 2000 and 2001 slowed the momentum, 19 States and the District of Columbia currently have some form of restructuring in place. In addition, Washington State, which has not restructured its electricity market, allows its largest industrial customers to choose their suppliers.

Released: March 11, 2007

The loan guarantee program authorized in Title XVII of EPACT2005 is not included in AEO2007, because the Federal Credit Reform Act of 1990 requires congressional authorization of loan guarantees in an appropriations act before a Federal agency can make a binding loan guarantee agreement. As of October 2006, Congress had not provided the legislation necessary for DOE to implement the loan guarantee program (see Legislation and Regulations). In August 2006, however, DOE invited firms to submit pre applications for the first $2 billion in potential loan guarantees.

Released: February 22, 2007

EPACT2005 was signed into law by President Bush on August 8, 2005, and became Public Law 109-058. A number of provisions from EPACT2005 were included in the AEO2006 projections. Many others were not considered in AEO2006particularly, those that require funding appropriations or further specification by Federal agencies or Congress before implementation.

Released: February 22, 2007

This analysis was updated for AEO2009: Impact of Limitations on Access to Oil and Natural Gas Resources in the Federal Outer Continental Shelf The OCS is estimated to contain substantial resources of crude oil and natural gas; however, some areas of the OCS are subject to drilling restrictions. With energy prices rising over the past several years, there has been increased interest in the development of more domestic oil and natural gas supply, including OCS resources. In the past, Federal efforts to encourage exploration and development activities in the deep waters of the OCS have been limited primarily to regulations that would reduce royalty payments by lease holders. More recently, the States of Alaska and Virginia have asked the Federal Government to consider leasing in areas off their coastlines that are off limits as a result of actions by the President or Congress. In response, the Minerals Management Service (MMS) of the U.S. Department of the Interior has included in its proposed 5-year leasing plan for 2007-2012 sales of one lease in the Mid-Atlantic area off the coastline of Virginia and two leases in the North Aleutian Basin area of Alaska. Development in both areas still would require lifting of the current ban on drilling.

Released: February 22, 2007

The AEO2007 reference case projects that an Alaska natural gas pipeline will go into operation in 2018, based on EIAs current understanding of the projects time line and economics. There is continuing debate, however, about the physical configuration and the ownership of the pipeline. In addition, the issue of Alaskas oil and natural gas production taxes has been raised, in the context of a current market environment characterized by rising construction costs and falling natural gas prices. If rates of return on investment by producers are reduced to unacceptable levels, or if the project faces significant delays, other sources of natural gas, such as unconventional natural gas production and LNG imports, could fulfill the demand that otherwise would be served by an Alaska pipeline.

Released: February 22, 2007

In May 2005, the EPA published two final rules aimed at reducing emissions from coal-fired power plants. CAIR [51] requires 28 States and the District of Columbia to reduce emissions of SO2 and/or NOx. CAMR [52] requires the States to reduce emissions of mercury from new and existing coal-fired plants.

Released: February 22, 2007

AEO2006 provided a review of renewable energy programs that were in effect in 23 States at the end of 2005 [37]. Since then (as of September 1, 2006), no new State programs have been adopted; however, several States with renewable energy programs in place have made changes as they have gained experience and identified areas for improvement. Revisions made over the past year range from clarification or modification of program definitions, such as which resources qualify, to substantial increases in targets for renewable electricity generation or capacity. The following paragraphs provide an overview of substantive changes in the design or implementation of State renewable energy programs.

Released: February 22, 2007

The AEO2007 reference case and alternative cases generally assume compliance with current laws and regulations affecting the energy sector. Some provisions of the U.S. Tax Code are scheduled to expire, or may be subject to adjustment, before the end of the projection period. In general, scheduled expirations and adjustments provided in legislation or regulations are assumed to occur, unless there is significant historical evidence to support an alternative assumption. This section examines the AEO2007 treatment of three provisions that could have significant impacts on U.S. energy markets: the gasoline excise tax, biofuel (ethanol and biodiesel) tax credits, and the PTC for electricity generation from certain renewable resources.

Released: February 22, 2007

Costs related to the construction industry have been volatile in recent years. Some of the volatility may be related to higher energy prices. Prices for iron and steel, cement, and concretecommodities used heavily in the construction of new energy projects rose sharply from 2004 to 2006, and shortages have been reported. How such price fluctuations may affect the cost or pace of new development in the energy industries is not known with any certainty, and short-term changes in commodity prices are not accounted for in the 25-year projections in AEO2007. Most projects in the energy industries require long planning and construction lead times, which can lessen the impacts of short-term trends.

Released: February 22, 2007

EPACT2005 requires that the use of renewable motor fuels be increased from the 2004 level of just over 4 billion gallons to a minimum of 7.5 billion gallons in 2012, after which the requirement grows at a rate equal to the growth of the gasoline pool. The law does not require that every gallon of gasoline or diesel fuel be blended with renewable fuels. Refiners are free to use renewable fuels, such as ethanol and biodiesel, in geographic regions and fuel formulations that make the most sense, as long as they meet the overall standard. Conventional gasoline and diesel can be blended with renewables without any change to the petroleum components, although fuels used in areas with air quality problems are likely to require adjustment to the base gasoline or diesel fuel if they are to be blended with renewables.

Released: February 22, 2007

Over the long term, the AEO2007 projection for world oil pricesdefined as the average price of imported low-sulfur, light crude oil to U.S. refinersis similar to the AEO2006 projection. In the near term, however, AEO2007 projects prices that are $8 to $10 higher than those in AEO2006.

Released: February 22, 2007

In March 2006, NHTSA finalized CAFE standards requiring higher fuel economy performance for light-duty trucks in MY 2008 through 2011. Unlike the proposed CAFE standards discussed in AEO2006 [13], which would have established minimum fuel economy requirements by six footprint size classes, the final reformed CAFE standards specify a continuous mathematical function that determines minimum fuel economy requirements by vehicle footprint, defined as the wheelbase (the distance from the front axle to the center of the rear axle) times the average track width (the distance between the center lines of the tires) of the vehicle in square feet.

Released: February 22, 2007

Sustained high world oil prices and the passage of the EPACT2005 have encouraged the use of agriculture-based ethanol and biodiesel in the transportation sector; however, both the continued growth of the biofuels industry and the long-term market potential for biofuels depend on the resolution of critical issues that influence the supply of and demand for biofuels. For each of the major biofuelscorn-based ethanol, cellulosic ethanol, and biodieselresolution of technical, economic, and regulatory issues remains critical to further development of biofuels in the United States.

Released: February 22, 2007

On July 11, 2006, the EPA issued regulations covering emissions from stationary diesel engines  New Source Performance Standards that limit emissions of NOx, particulate matter, SO2, carbon monoxide, and hydrocarbons to the same levels required for nonroad diesel engines. The regulation affects new, modified, and reconstructed diesel engines. Beginning with MY 2007 [16], engine manufacturers must specify that new engines less than 3,000 horsepower meet the same emissions standard as nonroad diesel engines. For engines greater than 3,000 horsepower, the standard will be fully effective in 2011. Stationary diesel engine fuel will also be subject to the same standard as nonroad diesel engine fuel, which reduces the sulfur content of the fuel to 500 parts per million by mid-2007 and 15 parts per million by mid-2010.

Released: February 22, 2007

Most of the coal delivered to U.S. consumers is transported by railroads, which accounted for 64 percent of total domestic coal shipments in 2004. Trucks transported approximately 12 percent of the coal consumed in the United States in 2004, mainly in short hauls from mines in the East to nearby coal-fired electricity and industrial plants. A number of minemouth power plants in the West also use trucks to haul coal from adjacent mining operations. Other significant modes of coal transportation in 2004 included conveyor belt and slurry pipeline (12 percent) and water transport on inland waterways, the Great Lakes, and tidewater areas (9 percent).

Released: March 20, 2006

The AEO2006 reference case assumes that States will comply with the requirements of the EPAs new CAMR regulation. CAMR is a two-phase program, with a Phase I cap of 38 tons of mercury emitted from all U.S. power plants in 2010 and a Phase II cap of 15 tons in 2018. Mercury emissions in the electricity generation sector in 2003 are estimated at around 50 tons. Generators have a variety of options to meet the mercury limits, such as: switching to coal with a lower mercury content, relying on flue gas desulfurization or selective catalytic reduction equipment to reduce mercury emissions, or installing conventional activated carbon injection (ACI) technology.

Released: February 1, 2006

AEO2005 provided a summary of 17 State renewable energy programs in existence as of December 31, 2003, in 15 States.

Released: February 1, 2006

On August 10, 2005, President Bush signed into law the Safe, Accountable, Flexible, and Efficient Transportation Equity Act: A Legacy for Users (SAFETEA-LU)]. The act includes authorization for a multitude of transportation infrastructure projects, establishes highway safety provisions, provides for R&D, and includes a large number of miscellaneous provisions related to transportation, most of which are not included in AEO2006 because their energy impacts are vague or undefined.

Released: February 1, 2006

A key issue in mid-term forecasting is the representation of changing and developing technologies. How existing technologies will evolve, and what new technologies might emerge, cannot be known with certainty. The issue is of particular importance in AEO2006, the first AEO with projections out to 2030.

Released: February 1, 2006

World oil prices in the AEO2006 reference case are substantially higher than those in the AEO2005 reference case. In the AEO2006 reference case, world crude oil prices, in terms of the average price of imported low-sulfur, light crude oil to U.S. refiners, decline from current levels to about $47 per barrel (2004 dollars) in 2014, then rise to $54 per barrel in 2025 and $57 per barrel in 2030. The price in 2025 is approximately $21 per barrel higher than the corresponding price projection in the AEO2005 reference case.

Released: February 1, 2006

The AEO2006 projections of future energy market conditions reflect the effects of oil prices on the macroeconomic variables that affect oil demand, in particular, and energy demand in general. The variables include real GDP growth, inflation, employment, exports and imports, and interest rates.

Released: February 1, 2006

The State of California was given authority under CAAA90 to set emissions standards for light-duty vehicles that exceed Federal standards. In addition, other States that do not comply with the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) set by the EPA under CAAA90 were given the option to adopt Californias light-duty vehicle emissions standards in order to achieve air quality compliance. CAAA90 specifically identifies hydrocarbon, carbon monoxide, and NOx as vehicle-related air pollutants that can be regulated. California has led the Nation in developing stricter vehicle emissions standards, and other States have adopted the California standards.

Released: February 1, 2006

In August 2005, NHTSA published proposed reforms to the structure of CAFE standards for light trucks and increases in light truck CAFE standards for model years 2008 through 2011 [8]. Under the proposed new structure, NHTSA would establish minimum fuel economy levels for six size categories defined by the vehicle footprint (wheelbase multiplied by track width), as summarized in Table 3. For model years 2008 through 2010, the new CAFE standards would provide manufacturers the option of complying with either the standards defined for each individual footprint category or a proposed average light truck fleet standard of 22.5 miles per gallon in 2008, 23.1 miles per gallon in 2009, and 23.5 miles per gallon in 2010. All light truck manufacturers would be required to meet an overall standard based on sales within each individual footprint category after model year 2010.

Released: February 1, 2006

A fundamental concern in projecting the future attributes of light-duty vehiclespassenger cars, sport utility vehicles, pickup trucks, and minivans is how to represent technological change and the market forces that drive it. There is always considerable uncertainty about the evolution of existing technologies, what new technologies might emerge, and how consumer preferences might influence the direction of change. Most of the new and emerging technologies expected to affect the performance and fuel use of light-duty vehicles over the next 25 years are represented in NEMS; however, the potential emergence of new, unforeseen technologies makes it impossible to address all the technology options that could come into play. The previous section of Issues in Focus discussed several potential technologies that currently are not represented in NEMS. This section discusses some of the key technologies represented in NEMS that are expected to be implemented in light-duty vehicles over the next 25 years.

Released: February 1, 2006

On February 14, 2002, President Bush announced the Administrations Global Climate Change Initiative [80]. A key goal of the Climate Change Initiative is to reduce U.S. GHG intensitydefined as the ratio of total U.S. GHG emissions to economic outputby 18 percent over the 2002 to 2012 time frame.

Released: February 1, 2006

On November 8, 2005, the EPA Administrator signed a direct final rule that will shift the retail compliance date for offering ULSD for highway use from September 1, 2006, to October 15, 2006. The change will allow more time for retail outlets and terminals to comply with the new 15 parts per million (ppm) sulfur standard, providing time for entities in the diesel fuel distribution system to flush higher sulfur fuel out of the system during the transition. Terminals will have until September 1, 2006, to complete their transitions to ULSD. The previous deadline was July 15, 2006.

Released: February 1, 2006

In 2005, the EPA finalized two regulations, CAIR and CAMR, that would reduce emissions from coal-fired power plants in the United States. Both CAIR and CAMR are included in the AEO2006 reference case. The EPA has received 11 petitions for reconsideration of CAIR and has provided an opportunity for public comment on reconsidering certain aspects of CAIR. Public comments were accepted until January 13, 2006. The EPA has also received 14 petitions for reconsideration of CAMR and is willing to reconsider certain aspects of the rule. Public comments were accepted for 45 days after publication of the reconsideration notice in the Federal Register. Several States and organizations have filed lawsuits against CAMR. The ultimate decision of the courts will have a significant impact on the implementation of CAMR.

Released: February 1, 2006

The U.S. House of Representatives passed H.R. 6 EH, the Energy Policy Act of 2005, on April 21, 2005, and the Senate passed H.R. 6 EAS on June 28, 2005. A conference committee was convened to resolve differences between the two bills, and a report was approved and issued on July 27, 2005. The House approved the conference report on July 28, 2005, and the Senate followed on July 29, 2005. EPACT2005 was signed into law by President Bush on August 8, 2005, and became Public Law 109-058.

Released: February 1, 2006

There have been some major changes in the U.S. refining industry recently, prompted in part by a significant decline in the quality of imported crude oil and by increasing restrictions on the quality of finished products. As a result, high-quality crudes, such as the WTI crude that serves as a benchmark for oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), have been trading at record premiums to the OPEC Basket price.

Released: February 1, 2006

By the end of 2005, 25 States had barred, or passed laws banning, any more than trace levels of MTBE in their gasoline supplies, and legislation to ban MTBE was pending in 4 others. Some State laws address only MTBE; others also address ethers such as ethyl tertiary butyl ether (ETBE) and tertiary amyl methyl ether (TAME). AEO2006 assumes that all State MTBE bans prohibit the use of all ethers for gasoline blending.

Released: February 1, 2006

Several States have recently enacted air emission regulations that will affect the electricity generation sector. The regulations govern emissions of NOx, SO2, CO2, and mercury from power plants.

Released: February 1, 2006

Higher prices for crude oil and refined petroleum products are opening the door for nonconventional liquids to displace petroleum in the traditional fuel supply mix. Growing world demand for diesel fuel is helping to jump-start the trend toward increasing production of nonconventional liquids, and technological advances are making the nonconventional alternatives more viable commercially. Those trends are reflected in the AEO2006 projections.

Released: April 1, 2005

On December 21, 2004, the Surface Transportation Board (STB) requested that the Energy Information Administration (EIA) analyze the impact of changes in coal transportation rates on projected levels of electric power sector energy use and emissions. Specifically, the STB requested an analysis of changes in national and regional coal consumption and emissions resulting from adjustments in railroad transportation rates for Wyoming's Powder River Basin (PRB) coal using the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). However, because NEMS operates at a relatively aggregate regional level and does not represent the costs of transporting coal over specific rail lines, this analysis reports on the impacts of interregional changes in transportation rates from those used in the Annual Energy Outlook 2005 (AEO2005) reference case.

Released: April 1, 2005

In the late 1970s and early 1980s, environmental and energy security concerns were addressed at the Federal level by several key pieces of energy legislation. Among them, the Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act of 1978 (PURPA), P.L. 95-617, required regulated power utilities to purchase alternative electricity generation from qualified generating facilities, including small-scale renewable generators; and the Investment Tax Credit (ITC), P.L. 95-618, part of the Energy Tax Act of 1978, provided a 10-percent Federal tax credit on new investment in capital-intensive wind and solar generation technologies.

Released: April 1, 2005

In January 2004, after years of litigation in a case that pitted environmental groups and Attorneys General from 10 States against the U.S. Secretary of Energy, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit reestablished the central air conditioner and heat pump standard originally set in January 2001 [3]. The Courts ruling, which struck down a May 2002 rollback of the 2001 standard to a 12 SEER, mandates that all new central air conditioners and heat pumps meet a 13 SEER standard by January 2006, requiring a 30-percent increase in efficiency relative to current law. The AEO2005 reference case incorporates the 13 SEER standard as mandated by the Courts ruling.

Released: April 1, 2005

In the residential and commercial sectors, heating and cooling account for more than 40 percent of end-use energy demand. As a result, energy consumption in those sectors can vary significantly from year to year, depending on yearly average temperatures.

Released: February 1, 2005

World oil prices in AEO2005 are set in an environment where the members of OPEC are assumed to act as the dominant producers, with lower production costs than other supply regions or countries. Non-OPEC oil producers are assumed to behave competitively, producing as much oil as they can profitability extract at the market price for oil. As a result, the OPEC member countries will be able effectively to set the price of oil when they can act in concert by varying their aggregate production. Alternatively, OPEC members could target a fixed level of production and let the world market determine the price.

Released: February 1, 2005

Compared with the experience of the 1990s, rising energy prices in recent years have led to questions about expectations of growth in industrial output, particularly in energy-intensive industries. Given the higher price trends, a review of expected growth trends in selected industries was undertaken as part of the production of AEO2005. In addition, projections for the industrial value of shipments, which were based on the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) system in AEO2004, are based on the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) in AEO2005. The change in industrial classification leads to lower historical growth rates for many industrial sectors. The impacts of these two changes are highlighted in this section for two of the largest energy-consuming industries in the U.S. industrial sectorbulk chemicals and pulp and paper.

Released: February 1, 2005

In July 2002, California Assembly Bill 1493 (A.B. 1493) was signed into law. The law requires that the California Air Resources Board (CARB) develop and adopt, by January 1, 2005, greenhouse gas emission standards for light-duty vehicles that provide the maximum feasible reduction in emissions. In estimating the feasibility of the standard, CARB is required to consider cost-effectiveness, technological capability, economic impacts, and flexibility for manufacturers in meeting the standard.

Released: February 1, 2005

The U.S. fleet of light-duty vehicles consists of cars and light trucks, including minivans, sport utility vehicles (SUVs) and trucks with gross vehicle weight less than 8,500 pounds. The fuel economy of light-duty vehicles is regulated by the CAFE standards set by NHTSA. Currently, the CAFE standard is 27.5 miles per gallon (mpg) for cars and 20.7 mpg for light trucks. The most recent increase in the CAFE standard for cars was in 1990, and the most recent increase in the CAFE standard for light trucks was in 1996.

Released: February 1, 2005

On June 29, 2004, the EPA issued a comprehensive final rule regulating emissions from nonroad diesel engines and sulfur content in nonroad diesel fuel. The nonroad fuel market makes up more than 18 percent of the total distillate pool. The rule applies to new equipment covering a broad range of engine sizes, power ratings, and equipment types. There are currently about 6 million pieces of nonroad equipment operating in the United States, and more than 650,000 new units are sold each year.

Released: February 1, 2005

The 108th Congress proposed and debated a variety of bills addressing pollution control at electric power plants but did not pass any of them into law. In addition, the EPA currently is preparing two regulationsa proposed Clean Air Interstate Rule (pCAIR) and a Clean Air Mercury Rule (CAMR)to address emissions from coal-fired power plants. Several States also have taken legislative actions to limit pollutants from power plants in their jurisdictions. This section discusses three Congressional air pollution bills and the EPAs pCAIR and CAMR regulations.

Released: February 1, 2005

The restricted natural gas supply case provides an analysis of the energy-economic implications of a scenario in which future gas supply is significantly more constrained than assumed in the reference case. Future natural gas supply conditions could be constrained because of problems with the construction and operation of large new energy projects, and because the future rate of technological progress could be significantly lower than the historical rate. Although the restricted natural gas supply case represents a plausible set of constraints on future natural gas supply, it is not intended to represent what is likely to happen in the future.

Released: February 1, 2005

Several States have recently enacted air emission regulations that will affect the electricity generation sector. The regulations are intended to improve air quality in the States and assist them in complying with the revised 1997 National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) for ground-level ozone and fine particulates. The affected States include Connecticut, Massachusetts, Maine, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Oregon, Texas, and Washington. The regulations govern emissions of NOx, SO2, CO2, and mercury from power plants.

Released: February 1, 2005

As of the end of 2003, 15 States had legislated programs to encourage the development of renewable energy for electricity generation. Of the 17 programs (two States have multiple programs), 9 are renewable portfolio standards (RPS), 4 are renewable energy mandates, and 4 are renewable energy goals.

Released: February 1, 2005

H.R. 4837, The Military Construction Appropriations and Emergency Hurricane Supplemental Appropriations Act, 2005 [19], was signed into law on October 13, 2004. The Act provides for construction to support the operations of the U.S. Armed Forces and for military family housing. It also provides funds to help citizens in Florida and elsewhere in the aftermath of multiple hurricanes and other natural disasters. In addition, it authorizes construction of an Alaska Natural Gas Pipeline.

Released: February 1, 2005

The Climate Stewardship Act of 2004 [64] would establish a system of tradable allowances to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The bill includes requirements for mandatory emissions reporting by covered entities and for voluntary reporting of emissions reduction activities by noncovered entities; a national greenhouse gas database and registry of reductions; and a research program on climate change and related activities.

Released: February 1, 2005

The American Jobs Creation Act of 2004 was signed into law on October 22, 2004. Most of the 650 pages of the Act are related to tax legislation. Provisions pertaining to energy are detailed in this analysis.

Released: February 1, 2005

The Working Families Tax Relief Act of 2004 was signed into law on October 13, 2004. Primarily, the Act reduces taxes for individuals and businesses. At least two provisions relate to energy: Depletion of marginal properties and qualified vehicles.

Released: February 1, 2005

As part of CAAA90, the EPA on February 26, 2004, issued a final rulethe National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants (NESHAP)to reduce emissions of hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) from industrial, commercial, and institutional boilers and process heaters. The rule requires industrial boilers and process heaters to meet limits on HAP emissions to comply with a MACT floor level of control that is the minimum level such sources must meet to comply with the rule. The major HAPs to be reduced are hydrochloric acid, hydrofluoric acid, arsenic, beryllium, cadmium, and nickel. The EPA predicts that the boiler MACT rule will reduce those HAP emissions from existing sources by about 59,000 tons per year in 2005.

Released: February 1, 2005

On February 14, 2002, President Bush announced the Administrations Global Climate Change Initiative [91]. A key goal of the Climate Change Initiative is to reduce U.S. greenhouse gas intensity by 18 percent over the 2002 to 2012 time frame. For the purposes of the initiative, greenhouse gas intensity is defined as the ratio of total U.S. greenhouse gas emissions to economic output.

Released: February 23, 2004

Presented by: Guy F. Caruso, EIA Administrator Presented to: National Governor's Association 2004 Winter Meeting February 23, 2004

Released: February 17, 2004

Presented by: Guy F. Caruso, EIA Administrator Presented to: 9th Annual RFA National Ethanol Conference February 17, 2004

Released: December 4, 2003

Presented by: Howard Gruenspecht, Deputy EIA Administrator Presented to: Massachusetts Institute of Technology Boston, Massachusetts December 4, 2003

Released: October 1, 2003

This paper describes the demand responses to changes in energy prices in the Annual Energy Outlook 2003 versions of the Residential and Commercial Demand Modules of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). It updates a similar paper completed for the Annual Energy Outlook 1999 version of the NEMS.

Released: July 1, 2002

This paper describes the methodology used to develop the NEMS estimate of projected aggregate energy efficiency and to describe the results of applying it to the Annual Energy Outlook 2002 (AEO2002) reference case.

Released: June 1, 2002

This paper presents delivered energy consumption and intensity projections for the industries included in the industrial sector of the National Energy Modeling System.

Released: March 1, 2002

This assessment of the economic impacts of CAFÉ standards marks the first time EIA has used the new direct linkage of the DRI-WEFA Macroeconomic Model to NEMS in a policy setting. This methodology assures an internally consistent solution between the energy market concepts forecast by NEMS and the aggregate economy as forecast by the DRI-WEFA Macroeconomic Model of the U.S. Economy.

Released: November 1, 2000

This paper describes the methodology used in the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) to represent unconventional gas technologies and their impacts on projections in the Annual Energy Outlook 2000 (AEO2000).

Released: September 1, 1999

This report describes EIA's use of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) to evaluate the effects of the Administration's restructuring proposal using the parameter settings and assumptions from the Policy Office Electricity Modeling System (POEMS) analysis.

Released: August 1, 1999

Final issue of this report. Presents a series of eight papers, which cover topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1999, as well as other significant issues in midterm energy markets. (archived versions)