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Sections:

• Overview
• Population
• Labor Force
• Employment
• Total Job Openings
• Education and Training Classification System

Overview of the 2010–20 Projections

Total employment is expected to increase by 20.5 million jobs from 2010 to 2020, with 88 percent of detailed occupations projected to experience employment growth. Industries and occupations related to health care, personal care and social assistance, and construction are projected to have the fastest job growth between 2010 and 2020. Jobs requiring a master’s degree are expected to grow the fastest, while those requiring a high school diploma will experience the slowest growth over the 2010–20 timeframe. Slower population growth and a decreasing overall labor force participation rate are expected to lead to slower civilian labor force growth.

Job openings result from the relationship that exists among the population, the labor force, and the demand for goods and services. The population restricts the size of the labor force, which consists of working individuals and those looking for work. The size and productivity of the labor force limits the quantity of goods and services that can be produced. In addition, changes in the demand for goods and services influence which industries expand or contract. Industries respond by hiring the workers necessary to produce goods and provide services. However, improvements in technology and productivity, changes in which occupations perform certain tasks, and changes in the supply of workers all affect which occupations will be employed by those industries. Examining past and present changes in these relationships in order to project future shifts is the foundation of the Employment Projections program of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS, the Bureau). This page presents highlights of BLS population, labor force, and occupational and industry employment projections for 2010–2020. For more information, visit the Employment Projections program.

The Bureau introduced a new education and training classification system with the 2010–2020 projections. The existing system was revised to show the different dimensions of education and training, rather than combining them into one category. The system also was revised to allow for educational distinctions between occupations that typically require a high school diploma and occupations that do not. The new system consists of three categories of information that BLS analysts have assigned to each detailed occupation: typical education needed for entry into the occupation, work experience in a related occupation, and typical on-the-job training needed to attain competency in the occupation.

Population

Shifts in the size and composition of the population can influence the U.S. economy. Several factors, including slower population growth, an aging population, and increasing diversity, are expected to affect the population over the coming decade. The U.S. civilian noninstitutional population, including individuals ages 16 and older, is expected to increase by 25.2 million from 2010 to 2020 (Chart 1). The projected growth rate of 10.6 percent is less than both the 12.4-percent growth rate experienced over the 1990–2000 period and the 11.9-percent rate posted for the 2000-10 period. As in the past few decades, population growth will vary by age group, race, and ethnicity. Minorities and immigrants are expected to constitute a larger share of the U.S. population in 2020. The Asian and Hispanic origin populations are projected to continue to grow much faster than other racial and ethnic groups, with the number of Asians growing at a rate of 34 percent and Hispanics, 37 percent.

As the population continues to age, older groups of Americans are expected to have more rapid growth than younger groups. The 16-to-24 age group is anticipated to experience little population change, with a growth rate of 0.3 percent during 2010–20, while the population ages 25 to 34 is projected to grow 10.5 percent over same timeframe. Meanwhile, the 45-to-54 age group is expected to shrink by 7.6 percent, reflecting the slower birthrate following the baby-boom generation. As the baby boomers continue to age, the 55-and-older population is projected to increase by 29.1 percent, more than any other age group.

Labor force

Like the population, the labor force is growing more slowly, becoming older and more diverse. The labor force is composed of all persons 16 years and older in the civilian noninstitutional population who either are employed or are unemployed but available and looking for work. The civilian labor force is projected to reach 164.4 million by 2020, an increase of 6.8 percent.

The U.S. workforce is projected to become more diverse by 2020. Among racial groups, Whites are expected to make up a decreasing share of the labor force while Blacks, Asians, and all other groups will increase their share (Chart 2). Among ethnic groups, persons of Hispanic origin are projected to increase their share of the labor force from 14.8 percent to 18.6 percent.

The number of women in the labor force will grow at a slightly faster rate than the number of men. The male labor force is projected to grow by 6.3 percent from 2010 to 2020, compared with 7.4 percent for the female labor force.

The share of the youth labor force, workers ages 16 to 24, is expected to decrease from 13.6 percent in 2010 to 11.2 percent in 2020. The primary working-age group, those between 25 and 54 years old, is projected to decline from 66.9 percent of the labor force in 2010 to 63.7 percent in 2020. The share of workers ages 55 years and older, by contrast, are anticipated to leap from 19.5 percent to 25.2 percent of the labor force during the same period (Chart 3).

Employment

Total employment is expected to increase by 14 percent from 2010 to 2020, following a 2-percent decline in 2000–10. However, the 20.5 million jobs expected to be added by 2020 will not be evenly distributed across major industry and occupational groups. Changes in consumer demand, improvements in technology, and many other factors will contribute to the continually changing employment structure of the U.S. economy.

The next two sections examine projected employment change within industries and occupations. The industry perspective is discussed in terms of wage and salary employment. The exception is employment in agriculture, which includes the self-employed and unpaid family workers in addition to wage and salary workers. The occupational profile is viewed in terms of total employment, including wage and salary workers, the self-employed, and unpaid family workers.

Employment change by industry

The analysis underlying BLS employment projections uses currently available information to focus on long-term structural changes in the economy. The 2010–20 projections assume a full-employment economy in 2020. Because of the unpredictability of the business cycle over a 10-year period, the Bureau assumes that the economy will be at full employment in 2020 (the projection year). The December 2007–June 2009 recession had a large impact on U.S. employment, with some industries more affected than others. In many industries, employment had not recovered to prerecessionary levels by 2010. This fact, coupled with the assumed return to full employment, caused the projections to assume faster growth rates and more numerous openings than might have been expected in many industries and their occupations had the recession not occurred.

Goods-producing industries. Overall employment in these industries is expected to increase by 1.7 million new jobs, driven largely by rapid growth in construction. However, projected growth among the remaining goods-producing industries is expected to be slow or negative (Chart 4).

Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting. Overall employment in agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting is expected to decrease by 4 percent. Employment is projected to continue to decline because of rising costs of production, more consolidation, and increases in productivity. Within this sector, the only industry that is expected to add jobs is logging, which is anticipated to grow by 6 percent. However, this growth rate corresponds to an increase of only 2,800 new jobs, because logging accounts for such a small share of the sector as a whole.

Construction. Employment in construction is expected to rise 33 percent by 2020, adding about 1.8 million jobs. All areas of construction are projected to contribute to the rapid job growth. The construction industry was hit hard by the recession, losing 2.2 million jobs from 2006 to 2010. Despite the fast projected growth rate, employment in the industry is not expected to recover to its prerecession level by 2020.

Manufacturing. Although output of manufactured goods is anticipated continue to increase, overall employment in this sector is projected to decline by 1 percent as productivity gains, automation, and international competition reduce the demand for labor in most manufacturing industries. The decline continues a trend witnessed during the recession, when the industry shed 2.6 million jobs from 2006 to 2010. Employment in computer and electronic product manufacturing is expected to decline by 14 percent over the decade, representing a loss of 156,800 jobs. Similarly, employment in machinery manufacturing, apparel manufacturing, and chemical manufacturing is expected to decline. However, employment in other manufacturing industries is projected to increase. For example, employment in fabricated metal product manufacturing is expected to grow by 12 percent, creating 151,600 new jobs. Other industries expected to add jobs are plastics and rubber products manufacturing and wood product manufacturing.

Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction. Employment in mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction is projected to increase by 4 percent over the 2010–20 decade. Oil and gas extraction and nonmetallic mineral mining and quarrying are expected to account for nearly all of the job growth in this industry, with growth rates of 15 percent and 14 percent, respectively. Coal and metal ore mining are expected to decline as support activities for mining is projected to experience little or no growth. Declining employment in these industries is attributable mainly to technology gains that boost worker productivity.

Service-providing industries. The employment shift in the U.S. economy away from goods-producing in favor of service-providing industries is expected to continue. Service-providing industries are anticipated to generate nearly 18 million new wage and salary jobs. As with goods-producing industries, growth among service-providing industries will vary (Chart 5).

Accommodation and food services. Employment in accommodation and food services is projected to grow by 9 percent, adding about 1 million new jobs through 2020. Job growth is expected to be concentrated in food services and drinking places, reflecting an increase in the population and the desire of time-conscious individuals to eat out.

Administrative and support and waste management and remediation services. Employment in this sector is expected to grow by 21 percent by 2020. Many new jobs will be created in employment services, an industry that is anticipated to account for 40 percent of all new jobs in the sector. Projected growth stems from the strong need for seasonal and temporary workers and for human resources services. The fastest growth in the industry is anticipated to be in waste collection, expected to grow 35 percent by 2020 through population growth and the privatization of waste collection services.

Arts, entertainment, and recreation. The arts, entertainment, and recreation industry is expected to grow by 18 percent through 2020. Most of the growth will be in the amusement, gambling, and recreation sector. Job growth will stem from public participation in arts, entertainment, and recreation activities—reflecting increasing incomes, leisure time, and awareness of the health benefits of physical fitness.

Educational services. Employment in public and private educational services is anticipated to grow by 14 percent, adding about 1.8 million new jobs through 2020. Rising student enrollments at all levels of education are expected to create demand for educational services.

Finance and insurance. The finance and insurance industry is projected to increase by 9 percent from 2010 to 2020, resulting in 505,100 new jobs. Many of these jobs will stem from a recovery of the jobs lost during the recession. Employment in securities, commodity contracts, and other financial investments and related activities is expected to expand 25 percent by 2020. Growth will be driven by the wide range of financial assets available for trade, the number of baby boomers reaching retirement age and therefore seeking advice on retirement options, and the globalization of securities markets. Employment in credit intermediation and related activities, an industry that includes banks, is projected to grow by about 3 percent. Employment in insurance carriers and related activities is expected to grow by 9 percent, adding 194,800 new jobs by 2020. Growth will stem from both the needs of an increasing population and new insurance products on the market.

Government. Between 2010 and 2020, government employment, excluding employment in public education and hospitals, is expected to increase by 2 percent. Growth in government employment will be dampened by budgetary constraints and the outsourcing of government jobs to the private sector. Federal government employment, including jobs in the Postal Service, is expected to decline by 13 percent, as officials work to reduce the budget deficits and curb government spending. State and local governments, excluding education and hospitals, are anticipated to grow by 7 percent.

Healthcare and social assistance. The healthcare and social assistance industry is projected to create about 28 percent of all new jobs created in the U.S. economy. This industry—which includes public and private hospitals, nursing and residential care facilities, and individual and family services—is expected to grow by 33 percent, or 5.7 million new jobs. Employment growth will be driven by an aging population and longer life expectancies, as well as new treatments and technologies.

Information. Employment in the information sector is projected to increase by 5 percent, adding 140,300 jobs by 2020. The sector contains software publishing, which is expected to grow by 35 percent as organizations continue to adopt the newest software products. In addition, other information services,” which includes Internet publishing and broadcasting, is expected to grow 16 percent as these services gain market share from newspapers and other, more traditional media.

The information sector also includes the telecommunications industry, in which employment is projected to grow 8 percent because of an increase in wireless and satellite telecommunications services. However, employment in newspaper, periodical, book, and directory publishers is expected to decline by 12 percent, as a result of increased efficiency in production, declining newspaper revenues, competition from Web publishers, and a trend toward using more freelance workers.

Management of companies and enterprises. Management of companies and enterprises is projected to grow relatively slowly, by 6 percent, as companies focus on reorganization to increase efficiency.

Other services (except public administration). Employment is expected to grow by 14 percent in this industry. The industry includes repair and maintenance establishments, personal and laundry services, religious organizations, and private households. The automotive repair and maintenance industry is expected to add 237,500 new jobs and have a 30 percent growth rate. As the number of vehicles on the road increases, the need for maintenance will grow, driving employment in this industry.

Professional, scientific, and technical services. Employment in professional, scientific, and technical services is projected to grow by 29 percent, adding about 2.1 million new jobs by 2020. Employment in computer systems design and related services is expected to increase by 47 percent, driven by growing demand for sophisticated computer network and mobile technologies. Employment in management, scientific, and technical consulting services is anticipated to expand, at 58 percent. Demand for these services will be spurred by businesses’ continued need for advice on planning and logistics, the implementation of new technologies, and compliance with workplace safety, environmental, and employment regulations. Combined, the two industries—computer systems design and related services and management, scientific, and technical consulting services—will account for more than half of all new jobs in professional, scientific, and technical services.

Real estate and rental and leasing. The real estate and rental and leasing industry is expected to grow by 14 percent through 2020, a rate that will recover many of the jobs lost during the housing downturn. Growth will be due to increased demand for housing as the housing market recovers and the population continues to expand. Activities related to real estate, which includes the offices of property managers and real estate appraisers, is expected to add the most jobs within this industry over the 2010–20 period.

Retail trade. Employment in retail trade is expected to increase by 12 percent, adding approximately 1.8 million new jobs from 2010 to 2020. This growth reflects an increasing population and a projected rise in personal consumption over the next decade.

Transportation and warehousing. Employment in transportation and warehousing is expected to increase by 20 percent during 2010–20, adding about 853,000 jobs to the industry total. Truck transportation is anticipated to grow by 24 percent, and the warehousing and storage sector is projected to grow by 26 percent. Demand for truck transportation and warehousing services will expand as global trade grows and more goods are transported into and around the country.

Utilities. Overall employment in utilities is projected to decrease by 6 percent through 2020. Despite increased output, employment in electric power generation, transmission, and distribution is expected to decline because of improved technology that will increase worker productivity. However, employment in the water, sewage, and other systems industry is anticipated to increase 26 percent by 2020. As the population continues to grow, more water treatment facilities are being built, driving growth in this industry.

Wholesale trade. The number of workers in wholesale trade is projected to increase by 14 percent over the next decade, adding about 744,100 jobs. Wholesale electronic markets and agents and brokers are expected to see the most growth in the industry, adding 342,100 new jobs.

Employment change by occupation

Demand for occupations is affected by industry growth or decline, among other factors, including productivity increases and changes in business practices. Job growth is projected to vary among major occupational groups (Chart 6).

Architecture and engineering occupations are projected to add roughly 252,800 jobs, representing a growth rate of 10 percent. Much of the growth in this group will be due to recovery from the recession, with 149,800 jobs having been lost from 2006 to 2010. Growth among engineering occupations, especially civil engineers, is expected to be high, with the occupation adding 51,100 positions. As the nation's infrastructure ages, a greater emphasis will be placed on maintaining existing structures as well as designing and implementing new roads, water systems, and pollution control systems.

Employment in arts and design occupations is projected to grow by 10 percent from 2010 to 2020, resulting in almost 76,100 new jobs. Nearly half of this growth is expected to occur among graphic designers. As more advertising is conducted over the Internet, a medium that generally includes many graphics, and as businesses increasingly seek professional design services, a greater number of graphic designers will be needed.

Employment in building and grounds cleaning and maintenance occupations is expected to grow by almost 664,000 jobs over the next decade, representing a growth rate of 12 percent. Part of the employment growth will be due to recovering some of the 246,100 jobs lost to the recession. As businesses continue to value the appearance of their surrounding grounds, and as households increasingly rely on contract workers to maintain their yards, grounds maintenance workers will see rapid employment growth. In addition, more building cleaning workers will be needed to maintain an increasing number of facilities, especially those related to health care.

Employment in business and financial operations occupations is projected to grow by 17 percent, resulting in 1.2 million new jobs. Some of these jobs make up for jobs lost during the recession. In addition, increasing financial regulations and the need for greater accountability and more oversight will drive demand for accountants and auditors, adding roughly 190,700 jobs to that occupation from 2010 to 2020. Further, as companies look for ways to control costs, demand will grow for management analysts, an occupation that is expected to add 157,200 jobs. Together, these two occupations are anticipated to account for 30 percent of new business and financial operations jobs.

Employment in community and social services occupations is projected to increase by 24 percent, representing roughly 582,300 jobs. As health insurance providers increasingly cover mental and behavioral health treatment, and as of the population of elderly people grows, the elderly will seek more and more social services and demand for these workers will rise.

Computer and information technology occupations are projected to grow by 22 percent, adding 758,800 new jobs from 2010 to 2020. Demand for workers in these occupations will be driven by the continuing need for businesses, government agencies, and other organizations to adopt and utilize the latest technologies. Workers in these occupations will be needed to develop software, increase cybersecurity, and update existing network infrastructure.

Construction and extraction workers build new residential and commercial buildings, roads, bridges, and other structures, and work in mines, quarries, and oil and gas fields. Employment of these workers is expected to grow 22 percent, adding about 1.4 million new jobs over the 2010–20 period. Construction trades and related workers, such as carpenters, painters, and plumbers, will account for about 1.1 million of these jobs. Gains will be widespread throughout this group, with construction laborers, carpenters, and electricians experiencing significant increases in employment. Job growth will result from increased construction of homes and office buildings, as well as from remodeling projects and the repair and replacement of the nation’s infrastructure.

Most of these occupations are concentrated in the construction industry, which is projected to grow quickly, adding more than 1.8 million new jobs between 2010 and 2020. However, a large proportion of the projected gains reflect the recovery of nearly 2 million construction and extraction jobs lost to the 2007–09 recession, so employment is not expected to return to its prerecession level by 2020.

Education, training, and library occupations are anticipated to add more than 1.4 million jobs, representing a growth rate of more than 15 percent. As the school-age population increases, demand for elementary and middle school teachers and for teacher assistants will rise. In addition, more students are seeking higher education to meet their career goals, increasing demand for postsecondary teachers.

Entertainment and sports occupations will grow by 16 percent, resulting in 128,900 new jobs by 2020. Increasing demand for coaches and scouts will account for more than half of employment growth in this group of occupations.

Farming, fishing, and forestry workers cultivate plants and breed and raise livestock. Employment in these occupations is projected to decline by about 2 percent, with 19,400 jobs lost by 2020. Productivity increases in agriculture will be a prime cause of the decline, offsetting small gains among forest, conservation, and logging workers.

Employment in food preparation and serving occupations is projected to increase by roughly 1.1 million jobs from 2010 to 2020, reflecting a growth rate of 10 percent. Some of the growth will be the result of recovering jobs lost just prior to, during, and just after the recession—202,100 from 2006 to 2010. Growth will stem from time-conscious consumers patronizing fast-food establishments and full-service restaurants. Thirty-nine percent of this growth is expected to occur among fast-food and counter workers as customers continue to rely on low-price food options.

Employment among healthcare occupations is expected to increase by 29 percent. This growth, resulting in a projected 3.5 million new jobs, will be driven by increasing demand for healthcare services. As the number of elderly individuals continues to grow, and as new developments allow for the treatment of more medical conditions, more healthcare professionals will be needed. Within this group, two occupations are expected to add a substantial number of jobs: registered nurses, with some 711,900 new jobs; and home health aides, with roughly 706,300 new jobs. Much of the growth in this pair of occupations will be the result of increased demand for healthcare services as the expanding elderly population requires more care.

Workers in installation, maintenance, and repair occupations install new equipment and maintain and repair existing equipment. These occupations are projected to add 800,200 jobs by 2020, growing by 15 percent. Job growth will be widespread among the occupations in the group, because workers in these occupations are integral to the maintenance and development of buildings, communication structures, transportation systems, and other types of infrastructure. Demand will increase as customers opt to make repairs rather than buy new items. However, nearly half of the job growth will be due to economic recovery, given that these occupations lost 454,700 jobs between 2006 and 2010. Jobs in this occupational group are closely tied to the housing market, and as it recovers, demand for installation, maintenance, and repair workers will increase. 

Legal occupations will increase by about 131,000, representing a growth rate of 11 percent. Lawyers will account for 73,600 of these new jobs. This growth reflects continued demand for legal services from government, individuals, and businesses alike. Paralegals and legal assistants are expected to account for 46,900 new jobs as legal establishments attempt to reduce costs by assigning these workers more tasks that were once performed by lawyers.

Employment in life, physical, and social science occupations is projected to increase by nearly 190,800 jobs from 2010 to 2020, representing a growth rate of 16 percent. Growth will be widespread throughout several occupations in this group. Employment in life science occupations will increase by 58,300, driven largely by the need for medical scientists to conduct research and to create new medical technologies, treatments, and pharmaceuticals. Another 56,500 jobs are expected to be created in social science and related occupations, led by strong growth among clinical, counseling, and school psychologists, who will be in greater demand as they provide psychological services in schools, hospitals, mental health centers, and social services agencies.

Employment in management occupations is projected to grow slowly over the coming decade, increasing by 7 percent and adding 615,800 new jobs. Most management occupations are expected to add jobs, but three occupations are anticipated to cut positions during the 2010–2020 period: farmers, ranchers, and other agricultural managers, food service managers, and postmasters and mail superintendents Employment of farmers, ranchers, and other agricultural managers is projected to decline by 8 percent, a loss of 96,100 jobs, chiefly because the agricultural industry will be facing rising land and capital prices and declining sales of some of its outputs, such as wheat and corn. Food service managers are expected to decline by 3 percent, resulting in a loss of 10,600 jobs. Due to tight budgets, employment of postmasters and mail superintendents is projected to decline by 28 percent, however, the size of the occupation will result in the loss of 6,800 jobs.

Employment in math occupations is expected to grow by 17 percent, adding 19,500 jobs by 2020. About half of these positions, 9,400, will be occupied by operations research analysts. Demand for these workers will increase as technology advances and companies need analysts to help them turn data into valuable information that can be used by managers to make better decisions in all aspects of their business.

Media and communications occupations are projected to experience employment growth of 13 percent, adding 106,100 jobs, led by rapid growth among public relations specialists. The growth of social media will result in the need for more workers to maintain an organization’s public image. Interpreters and translators are also expected to add a significant number of jobs by 2020 as demand for these workers grows because of both a large increase in the number of non–English-speaking people in the United States and continued globalization.

Office and administrative support workers perform the day-to-day activities of an office, such as preparing and filing documents, dealing with the public, and distributing information. Employment in these occupations is expected to grow by 10 percent, adding 2.3 million new jobs by 2020. Most job gains in these occupations represent recovery from the recession: the occupational group lost 1.7 million jobs from 2006 to 2010. General office clerks, who are needed to carry out a variety of daily tasks in the workplace, will add 489,500 new jobs, the largest number of new jobs among all office and administrative support workers. Customer service representatives also are projected to experience employment growth, adding 338,400 new jobs as businesses increasingly emphasize building customer relationships in an effort to differentiate themselves from competitors. In addition, large gains in employment are expected for bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing clerks, as well as among receptionists and information clerks.

Employment in personal care and service occupations is anticipated to grow by 27 percent over the next decade, adding more than 1.3 million jobs. As consumers become more concerned with health, beauty, and fitness, the number of cosmetic and health spas will rise, causing an increase in demand for workers in this group. The personal care and service group contains a wide variety of occupations; however, two of them—personal care aides and childcare workers—will account for nearly two-thirds of the group’s new jobs. Personal and home care aides will experience increased demand as a growing number of elderly people require assistance with daily tasks. Childcare workers will add jobs as the population of children continues to grow and emphasis is increasingly placed on the importance of early childhood education, resulting in more formal preschool programs. These programs will increase demand for both childcare workers and preschool teachers.

Production workers are employed mainly in manufacturing, where they assemble goods and operate plants. Production occupations are expected to grow by just 4 percent, adding 356,800 jobs by 2020. These new jobs represent less than 20 percent of the 2.1 million jobs lost by this group from 2006 to 2010. Textile, apparel, and furnishing workers are projected to lose 65,500 jobs by 2020 as improvements in productivity reduce the need for these workers, and as a growing number of jobs in the occupation are offshored, demand for production workers will decline. However, some production jobs will still be created over the next decade, mostly in metal and plastic working and in assembling and fabricating.

Protective service occupations are expected to add about 364,500 jobs, reflecting an 11-percent growth rate. More than half of the job growth in this group will occur among security guards. Demand for these workers will stem from business and other organizations that have concerns about crime and vandalism. In addition, demand for law enforcement workers will increase as the nation seeks to maintain the safety of its growing population.

Sales workers solicit goods and services for businesses and consumers. Sales and related occupations are expected to add 1.9 million new jobs by 2020, offsetting the 1.1 million jobs lost in these occupations from 2006 to 2010. As organizations offer a wider array of products and devote an increasing share of their resources to customer service, many new retail sales workers will be needed. More than half of the job growth in this group will occur in retail sales establishments.

Transportation and material moving workers transport people and materials by land, sea, or air. Employment of these workers is anticipated to increase by 15 percent, accounting for 1.3 million new jobs, nearly restoring employment to prerecession levels. These occupations lost 1.3 million jobs from 2006 to 2010. As the economy grows over the 2010–20 period and the demand for goods increases, truck drivers will be needed to transport those goods to businesses, consumers, and others. In addition, employment of laborers and hand, freight, stock and material movers will increase as these workers increasingly are needed to work in more warehouses because of an expected rise in consumer spending.

Employment Change by Detailed Occupation

Occupational growth can be considered in two ways: by the rate of growth and by the number of new jobs created by growth. Some occupations both have a fast growth rate and create a large number of new jobs. However, an occupation that employs few workers may experience rapid growth, but the resulting number of new jobs may be small. For example, a small occupation that employs just 1,000 workers and is projected to grow 50 percent over a 10-year period will add only 500 jobs. By contrast, a large occupation that employs 1.5 million workers may experience only 10 percent growth, but will add 150,000 jobs. As a result, to get a complete picture of employment growth, both measures must be considered.

Occupations with the fastest growth. Of the 20 fastest growing occupations in the economy (Table 1), several are related to healthcare. Employment in healthcare-related occupations is expected to continue to grow rapidly, in large part because of an aging population that will require more medical care. In addition, some healthcare occupations will be in greater demand for other reasons. As healthcare costs continue to rise, work is increasingly being delegated to lower paid workers in order to cut costs. For example, tasks that were previously performed by doctors, nurses, dentists, or other healthcare professionals increasingly are being performed by physician assistants, medical assistants, and physical therapist aides. Furthermore, patients increasingly are seeking home care as an alternative to costly stays in hospitals or residential care facilities, causing a significant increase in demand for home health aides. Although not classified as healthcare workers, personal and home care aides are being affected by this demand for home care as well.

Six of the fastest growing detailed occupations are in the construction and extraction occupational group. Helpers of brickmasons, blockmasons, stonemasons, and tile and marble setters and helpers of carpenters are projected to be the fourth- and fifth-fastest growing occupations, respectively. As the economy recovers from the 2007-09 recession, demand for these workers will increase as population growth contributes to the need for schools, hospitals, apartment buildings, and other structures. In addition, these helpers are needed to repair existing buildings, roads, and bridges. Also among the fastest growing occupations are reinforcing iron and rebar workers; helpers of pipelayers, plumbers, pipefitters, and steamfitters; glaziers; and brickmasons and blockmasons. Combined, these occupations are projected to add 132,900 jobs by 2020; however, most of these occupations will not reach the level of employment that they experienced prior to the recession.

Two business and financial operations occupations are included in the top 20 fastest growing occupations. By 2020, meeting, convention, and event planners and market research analysts and marketing specialists are expected to increase their employment by 44 percent and 41 percent, respectively. Demand for these workers will stem from the growing importance of meetings and conventions as businesses and other organizations become increasingly international. In addition, employment growth will be driven by an increased use of data and market research across all industries in order to understand the needs and wants of customers and measure the effectiveness of marketing and business strategies.

Biomedical engineers are projected to be the third-fastest growing occupation in the economy. However, because of its small size, this occupation is projected to add only about 9,700 jobs. Biomedical engineers will be needed as the general population increasingly emphasizes health issues and demand for the medical devices and equipment designed by these workers rises. For example, the aging of the baby-boom generation will increase demand for biomedical devices and procedures, such as hip and knee replacements.

Of the 20 fastest growing occupations, half are in the associate degree or higher category. Nine of these occupations pay at least $10,000 more than the national annual median wage, which was $33,840 in May 2010. In fact, two of the occupations paid at least twice the national median in May 2010.

Occupations with the largest numerical growth. The 20 occupations projected to have the most new jobs are expected to account for more than one-third of all new jobs—7.4 million combined—over the 2010–20 period (Table 2). The occupations with the largest numerical increases cover a wider range of occupational categories than do those occupations with the fastest growth rates. Healthcare occupations will account for some of these increases in employment, as will occupations in sales, office and administrative support, education, building and groundskeeping, personal care, and transportation.

Of the 20 occupations with the largest growth, one-fifth are in the office and administrative support services group. Together, these four occupations—bookkeeping, accounting and auditing clerks, customer service representatives, general office clerks, and receptionists and information clerks, are expected to grow by 1.3 million jobs, accounting for about 18 percent of job growth among the 20 occupations with the largest growth. Only 2 out of the 20 fastest growing occupations—home health aides and personal care aides—also are projected to be among the 20 occupations with the largest numerical increases in employment.

The education categories and wages of the occupations with the largest numbers of new jobs are considerably different than those of the fastest growing occupations. Only three of these occupations are in the associate’s degree or higher category. Fourteen of the 20 occupations with the largest numbers of new jobs paid less than the national median wage of $33,840 in May 2010.

Declining occupations. Declining occupational employment stems from falling industry employment, technological advances, changes in business practices, and other factors. Almost all of the occupations that are projected to decline the fastest fall into two occupational groups. Eleven of the twenty fastest declining occupations are in the production occupational group; examples are shoe machine operators and tenders and fabric and apparel patternmakers, declining by 53 percent and 36 percent, respectively. Together, the 11 production occupations are projected to shed 77,300 jobs by 2020.

Seven of the twenty occupations that are projected to decline the fastest are in the office and administrative support staff occupational group. The seven occupations are expected to contribute to a loss of 143,300 jobs over the coming decade (Table 3). Included among these fastest declining office and administrative support jobs are several postal service occupations. Postal service mail sorters, processors, and processing machine operators, the fastest declining office and administrative support occupation, are expected to decline by 49 percent. Both production occupations and office and administrative support occupations are adversely affected by increasing factory automation or the implementation of office technology, reducing the need for workers in those occupations. The difference between the office and administrative support occupations that are expected to experience the largest declines and those which are expected to see the largest increases is the extent to which job functions can be easily automated or performed by other workers. For instance, the duties of receptionists and customer service representatives involve a great deal of personal interaction, so automating their jobs is difficult or not desirable, whereas the duties of some file clerks, operators, and data entry workers can be automated or performed by other workers, such as administrative assistants.

Although farmers, ranchers, and other agricultural managers are not among the fastest declining occupations, their employment is projected to drop by 96,100, the most of any occupation.

Only three of the occupations with the fastest percent decline are in a category that indicates workers have any postsecondary education. Thirteen of these occupations paid less than the national median wage of $33,840 in May 2010.

Employment change by education category

The Bureau has introduced a new education and training classification system that consists of three categories of information:  1) Typical education needed for entry, 2) Work experience in a related occupation, and 3) Typical on-the-job training needed to obtain competency in the occupation. Growth for each education and training category is calculated by adding the growth across all occupations in the category. As a result, there is some variation in the growth rates among categories.

Occupations that require some postsecondary education are expected to experience slightly higher rates of growth than those which require high school diploma or less. Occupations in the master’s degree category are projected to grow the fastest, about 22 percent; occupations in the bachelor’s and associate’s degree categories are anticipated to grow by about 17 percent and 18 percent, respectively, and occupations in the doctoral or professional degree category are expected to grow by about 20 percent. In contrast, occupations in the high school category are expected to grow by just 12 percent, while occupations in the less than high school diploma or equivalent category are projected to grow by 14 percent (Chart 7).

Nevertheless, because many of the occupations require a high school diploma or less, they will account for the majority—63 percent—of new jobs between 2010 and 2020 (Chart 8). 

Total job openings

Job openings stem from both employment growth and replacement needs (Chart 9). Replacement needs arise as workers leave occupations. Some workers transfer to other occupations, while others retire, return to school, or leave the labor force to assume household responsibilities. Replacement needs are projected to account for 63 percent of the approximately 54.8 million job openings between 2010 and 2020. Thus, even occupations that are projected to experience slower-than-average growth or to decline in employment will still have openings that are due to replacement needs.

Office and administrative support occupations are projected to have the largest number of total job openings, 7.4 million, and 69 percent of those openings will be due to replacement needs. Generally, replacement needs are greatest in the largest occupations and in those with relatively low pay or limited training requirements. As a result, sales occupations and food preparation and serving workers are expected to generate a large number of jobs due to replacement needs. Sales occupations are expected to have 6.5 million job openings, 71 percent of which will be due to replacement needs, while food preparation and serving workers are expected to have 5.1 million job openings, 79 percent of which will be due to replacement needs. In contrast, healthcare occupations are projected to have 5.6 million job openings, but only 39 percent will be due to replacement needs. Most new healthcare jobs are expected to be due to job growth.

Farming, fishing, and forestry occupations should offer job opportunities despite overall declines in employment. These occupations will lose 19,400 jobs but are expected to provide 290,800 total job openings. Job openings will be due solely to the replacement needs of a workforce characterized by high levels of retirement and job turnover.

Education and training classification system

The BLS education and training classification system consists of three categories of information that BLS analysts have assigned to each detailed occupation in the 2010–2020 National Employment Matrix. The categories are 1) typical education needed for entry, 2) commonly required work experience in a related occupation, and 3) typical on-the-job training needed to obtain competency in the occupation. Each category and its related choice selections are defined below. This education and training system replaces the one used for the 2008–2018 projections cycle.

Typical education needed for entry

This category best describes the typical level of education that most workers need to enter the occupation. Occupations are assigned one of the following eight education levels:

Doctoral or professional degree. Completion of a doctoral degree (Ph.D.) usually requires at least 3 years of full-time academic work beyond a bachelor’s degree. Completion of a professional degree usually requires at least 3 years of full-time academic study beyond a bachelor’s degree. Examples of occupations for which a professional degree is the typical form of entry-level education include lawyers, physicians and surgeons, and dentists.

Master’s degree. Completion of this degree usually requires 1 or 2 years of full-time academic study beyond a bachelor’s degree. Examples of occupations in this category include statisticians, physician assistants, and educational, vocational, and school counselors.

Bachelor’s degree. Completion of this degree generally requires at least 4 years, but not more than 5 years, of full-time academic study beyond high school. Examples of occupations in this category include budget analysts, dietitians, and civil engineers.

Associate’s degree. Completion of this degree usually requires at least 2 years but not more than 4 years of full-time academic study beyond high school. Examples of occupations in this category include mechanical drafters, respiratory therapists, and dental hygienists.

Postsecondary non-degree award. These programs lead to a certificate or other award, but not a degree. The certificate is awarded by the educational institution and is the result of completing formal postsecondary schooling. Certification, which is issued by a professional organization or certifying body, is not included here. Some postsecondary non-degree award programs last only a few weeks, while others may last 1 to 2 years. Examples of occupations in this category include nursing aides, emergency medical technicians (EMTs) and paramedics, and hairstylists.

Some college, no degree. This category signifies the achievement of a high school diploma or equivalent plus the completion of one or more postsecondary courses that did not result in a degree or award. Examples of occupations in this category are actors and computer support specialists.

High school diploma or equivalent. This category signifies the completion of high school or an equivalent program resulting in the award of a high school diploma or an equivalent, such as the General Educational Development (GED) credential. Examples of occupations in this category include social and human service assistants and pharmacy technicians.

Less than high school. This category signifies the completion of any level of primary or secondary education that did not result in the award of a high school diploma or equivalent. Examples of occupations in this category include janitors and cleaners, cashiers, and carpet installers.

Work experience in a related occupation

For some occupations, work experience in a related occupation may be a typical method of entry. The majority of occupations in this category are first-line supervisors or managers of service, sales, and production occupations. Although work experience in a related occupation is beneficial for all occupations, this metric is meant to capture work experience that is commonly considered necessary by employers, or is a commonly accepted substitute for other, more formal types of training or education. Occupations are assigned one of the following four categories that deal with length of time spent gaining related work experience:

More than 5 years. This is assigned to occupations if more than 5 years of work experience in a related occupation is typically needed for entry. Examples include construction managers and computer and information systems managers.

1 to 5 years. To enter occupations in this category, workers typically need 1-5 years of work experience in a related occupation. Examples include marketing managers and database administrators.

Less than 1 year. Examples of occupations that typically need less than 1 year of work experience in a related occupation include restaurant cooks and industrial truck and tractor operators.

None. No work experience in a related occupation is typically needed. Examples are audiologists and actuaries.

Typical on-the-job training needed to attain competency in the occupation

This category encompasses any additional training or preparation that is typically needed, once employed in an occupation, to attain competency in the skills needed in that occupation. Training is occupation-specific rather than job-specific; skills learned can be transferred to another job in the same occupation. Occupations are assigned one of the following six training categories:

Internship/residency. An internship or residency is training that involves preparation in a field such as medicine or teaching, generally under supervision in a professional setting, such as a hospital or classroom. This type of training may occur before one is employed. Completion of an internship or residency program is commonly required for state licensure or certification in fields including medicine, counseling, architecture, and teaching. This category does not include internships that are suggested for advancement. Examples of occupations in the internship/residency category include physicians and surgeons and marriage and family therapists.

Apprenticeship. An apprenticeship is a formal relationship between a worker and sponsor that consists of a combination of on-the-job training and related occupation-specific technical instruction in which the worker learns the practical and theoretical aspects of an occupation. Apprenticeship programs are sponsored by individual employers, joint employer-and-labor groups, and employer associations. The typical apprenticeship program provides at least 144 hours of occupation-specific technical instruction and 2,000 hours of on-the-job training per year over a 3-to-5 year period. Examples of occupations in the apprenticeship category include electricians and structural iron and steel workers.

Long-term on-the-job training. More than 12 months of on-the-job training or, alternatively, combined work experience and formal classroom instruction, are needed for workers to develop the skills to attain competency. Training is occupation specific rather than job specific; therefore, skills learned can be transferred to another job in the same occupation. This on-the-job training category also includes employer-sponsored training programs. Such programs include those offered by fire and police academies and schools for air traffic controllers and flight attendants. In other occupations—nuclear power reactor operators, for example—trainees take formal courses, often provided at the jobsite, to prepare for the required licensing exams. This category excludes apprenticeships. Examples of occupations in the long-term on-the-job training category include opticians and automotive service technicians and mechanics.

Moderate-term on-the-job training. Skills needed for a worker to attain competency in an occupation that can be acquired during 1 to 12 months of combined on-the-job experience and informal training. Training is occupation-specific rather than job-specific; therefore, skills learned can be transferred to another job in the same occupation. This on-the-job training category also includes employer-sponsored training programs. Examples of occupations in the moderate-term category include school bus drivers and advertising sales agents.

Short-term on-the-job training. Skills needed for a worker to attain competency in an occupation that can be acquired during 1 month or less of on-the-job experience and informal training. Training is occupation-specific rather than job specific; therefore, skills learned can be transferred to another job in the same occupation. This on-the-job training category also includes employer sponsored training programs. Examples of occupations in the short-term category include retail salespersons and maids and housekeeping cleaners.

None. There is no additional occupation-specific training or preparation typically required to attain competency in the occupation. Examples of occupations that do not require occupation-specific on-the-job training include geographers and pharmacists.

Publish Date: Thursday, March 29, 2012