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One-time (service reports, special analyses, and feature articles)

Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Motor Gasoline Consumption Model
The motor gasoline consumption module of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) model is designed to provide forecasts of total U.S. consumption of motor gasolien based on estimates of vehicle miles traveled and average vehicle fuel economy.
Released: November 30, 2011 , Contact: Tancred Lidderdale (202) 586-7321

Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Other Petroleum Products Consumption Model
The other petroleum product consumption module of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) model is designed to provide U.S. consumption forecasts for 6 petroleum product categories: asphalt and road oil, petrochemical feedstocks, petroleum coke, refinery still gas, unfinished oils, and other miscvellaneous products
Released: November 30, 2011 , Contact: Tancred Lidderdale (202) 586-7321

Modeling Distributed Electricity Generation in the NEMS Buildings Models
(also available in printer-friendly version).
This paper presents the modeling methodology, projected market penetration, and impact of distributed generation with respect to offsetting future electricity needs and carbon dioxide emissions in the residential and commercial buildings sector in the Annual Energy Outlook 2000 (AEO2000) reference case.
Released: January 25, 2011 , Contact: Erin Boedecker (202) 586-4791

Documentation for Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in the United States 2008
The Energy Policy Act of 1992 required the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) to prepare an inventory of aggregate U.S. national emissions of greenhouse gases for the period 1987-1990, with annual updates thereafter. This report documents the methodology for the seventeenth annual inventory, covering national emissions over the period 1990-2008.
Released: January 3, 2011 , Contact: Information Center (202) 586-8800

Changes in Natural Gas Monthly Consumption Data Collection and the Short-Term Energy Outlook
Beginning with the December 2010 issue of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the Energy Information Administration (EIA) will present natural gas consumption forecasts for the residential and commercial sectors that are consistent with recent changes to the Form EIA-857 monthly natural gas survey.
Released: December 1, 2010 , Contact: Information Center (202) 586-8800

Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Regional Residential Propane Price Model
The regional residential propane price module of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) model is designed to provide residential retail price forecasts for the 4 census regions: Northeast, South, Midwest, and West.
Released: November 9, 2009 , Contact: Information Center (202) 586-8800

Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Regional Residential Heating Oil Price Model
The regional residential heating oil price module of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) model is designed to provide residential retail price forecasts for the 4 census regions: Northeast, South, Midwest, and West.
Released: November 9, 2009 , Contact: Information Center (202) 586-8800

Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Emissions Model
Description of the procedures for estimating carbon dioxide emissions in the Short-Term Energy Outlook
Released: August 11, 2009 , Contact: Information Center (202) 586-8800

Reduced Form Energy Model Elasticities from EIA's Regional Short-Term Energy Model (RSTEM)
This analysis examines the price and weather elasticities derived from EIA's Regional Short-term Energy Model (RSTEM).
Released: May 9, 2006 , Contact: Information Center (202) 586-8800

Price Responsiveness in the AEO2003 NEMS Residential and Commercial Buildings Sector Models
(also available in printer-friendly version).
This paper describes the demand responses to changes in energy prices in the Annual Energy Outlook 2003 versions of the Residential and Commercial Demand Modules of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). It updates a similar paper completed for the Annual Energy Outlook 1999 version of the NEMS.
Released: October 1, 2003 , Contact: Steven H. Wade (202) 586-1678

System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets - Vol. I, Model Documentation
Documents the objectives and the conceptual and methodological approach used in the development of projections for the International Energy Outlook. The first volume of this report describes the SAGE methodology and provides an in-depth explanation of the equations of the model.
Released: August 1, 2003 , Contact: Barry Kapilow-Cohen (202) 586-5359

System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets - Vol. II, Model Documentation
The second volume provides a data implementation guide that lists all naming conventions and model constraints. In addition, Volume 1 has two appendixes that provide a schematic of the SAGE structure and a listing of the source code, respectively.
Released: August 1, 2003 , Contact: Barry Kapilow-Cohen (202) 586-5359

Forecasting Crude Oil Spot Price Using OECD Petroleum Inventory Levels
This paper presents a short-term monthly forecasting model of West Texas Intermediate crude oil spot price using OECD petroleum inventory levels.
Released: March 1, 2003 , Contact: John Zyren (202) 586-6405

Interim Data Changes in the Short-term Energy Outlook Data Systems Related to Electric Power Sector and Natural Gas Demand Data Revisions (Released in the STEO December 2002)
Beginning with the December 2002 issue of EIAs Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), electricity generation and related fuel consumption totals will be presented on a basis that is consistent with the definitions and aggregates used in the 2001 edition of EIAs Annual Energy Review (AER). Particularly affected by these changes are the demand and balancing item totals for natural
Released: December 1, 2002 , Contact: Information Center (202) 586-8800

Measuring Changes in Energy Efficiency for the Annual Energy Outlook 2002
(also available in printer-friendly version).
This paper describes the methodology used to develop the NEMS estimate of projected aggregate energy efficiency and to describe the results of applying it to the Annual Energy Outlook 2002 (AEO2002) reference case.
Released: July 1, 2002 , Contact: Steven H. Wade (202) 586-1678

Oxygenate Supply/Demand Balances in the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting Model (Released in the STEO March 1998)
The blending of oxygenates, such as fuel ethanol and methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE), into motor gasoline has increased dramatically in the last few years because of the oxygenated and reformulated gasoline programs. Because of the significant role oxygenates now have in petroleum product markets, the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) was revised to include supply and demand balances for fuel ethanol and MTBE. The STIFS model is used for producing forecasts in the Short-Term Energy Outlook. A review of the historical data sources and forecasting methodology for oxygenate production, imports, inventories, and demand is presented in this report.
Released: March 1, 1998 , Contact: Information Center (202) 586-8800

Modifications To Incorporate Competitive Electricity Prices In The Annual Energy Outlook 1998
The purpose of this report is to describe modifications to the Electricity Market Module (EMM) for the Annual Energy Outlook 1998. It describes revisions necessary to derive competitive electricity prices and the corresponding reserve margins.
Released: February 1, 1998 , Contact: Information Center (202) 586-8800

DRI Model of the U.S. Economy -- Model Documentation:
Provides documentation on Data Resources, Inc., DRI Model of the U.S. Economy and the DRI Personal Computer Input/Output Model. It also describes the theoretical basis, structure and functions of both DRI models; and contains brief descriptions of the models and their equations.
Released: December 1, 1993 , Contact: Information Center (202) 586-8800

Recurring (annual, quarterly, monthly, etc.)

Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Module
Documents the archived version of the Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Model that was used to produce the natural gas forecasts used in support of the Annual Energy Outlook 2012.
Released: January 28, 2013 , Contact: Joe Benneche (202) 586-6132

Oil and Gas Supply Module (OGSM)
Defines the objectives of the Oil and Gas Supply Model (OGSM), to describe the model's basic approach, and to provide detail on how the model works. This report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public.
Released: January 16, 2013 , Contact: Dana Van-Wagener (202) 586-4725

Petroleum Market Module (Volume 1), Model Documentation
Model Documentation Volume I - Defines the objectives of the Petroleum Market Model (PMM), describes its basic approach, and provides detail on how it works. This report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public.
Released: January 14, 2013 , Contact: William Brown (202) 586-8181

Petroleum Market Module (Volume 2), Model Documentation
Model Documentation Volume II - Defines the objectives of the Petroleum Market Model (PMM), describes its basic approach, and provides detail on how it works. This report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public.
Released: January 14, 2013 , Contact: William Brown (202) 586-8181

Coal Market Module
Documents the objectives and the conceptual and methodological approach used in the development of the National Energy Modeling System's (NEMS) Coal Market Module (CMM) used to develop the Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (AEO2012). This report catalogues and describes the assumptions, methodology, estimation techniques, and source code of CMM's two submodules. These are the Coal Production Submodule (CPS) and the Coal Distribution Submodule (CDS).
Released: January 14, 2013 , Contact: Michael Mellish (202) 586-2136

Residential Sector Demand Module
Model Documentation - Documents the objectives, analytical approach, and development of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Residential Sector Demand Module. The report catalogues and describes the model assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and FORTRAN source code.
Released: December 19, 2012 , Contact: Owen Comstock (202) 586-4752 (202) 586-4752

Electricity Market Module
Documents the Electricity Market Module as it was used for the Annual Energy Outlook 2012. The Electricity Market Module (EMM) is the electricity supply component of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The EMM represents the generation, transmission, and pricing of electricity. It consists of four submodules: the Electricity Capacity Planning (ECP) Submodule, the Electricity Fuel Dispatch (EFD) Submodule, the Electricity Finance and Pricing (EFP) Submodule, and the Electricity Load and Demand (ELD) Submodule.
Released: December 6, 2012 , Contact: Jeff Jones (202) 586-2038

Commercial Sector Demand Module
Documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Commercial Sector Demand Module. The report catalogues and describes the model assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, model source code, and forecast results generated through the synthesis and scenario development based on these components.
Released: November 15, 2012 , Contact: Kevin Jarzomski (202) 586-3208

International Energy Module
Summarizes the overall structure of the International Energy Model and its interface with other NEMS modules, mathematical specifications of behavioral relationships, and data sources and estimation methods.
Released: November 5, 2012 , Contact: Adrian Geagla (202) 586-2873

Transportation Sector Module
Documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Transportation Model (TRAN). The report catalogues and describes the model assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, model source code, and forecast results generated by the model.
Released: October 31, 2012 , Contact: John Maples (202) 586-1757

Macroeconomic Activity Module
Documents the objectives, analytical approach, and development of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Macroeconomic Activity Module (MAM) used to develop the Annual Energy Outlook for 2012 (AEO2012). The report catalogues and describes the module assumptions, computations, methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and mainframe source code
Released: October 1, 2012 , Contact: Kay Smith 202-586-1132 (archived versions)

Renewable Fuels Module
This report documents the objectives, analytical approach, and design of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Renewable Fuels Module (RFM) as it relates to the production of the Annual Energy Outlook forecasts.
Released: October 1, 2012 , Contact: Chris Namovicz (202) 586-7120

Integrating Module of the National Energy Modeling System: Model Documentation
Provides an overview of the complete National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) model, and includes brief descriptions of the modules with which the Integrating Module interacts. The emphasis and focus, however, is on the structure and function of the Integrating Module of NEMS.
Released: August 23, 2012 , Contact: Dan Skelly 202-586-1722

World Energy Projection System Plus Model Documentation: Industrial Model
This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the World Energy Projection System Plus (WEPS+) World Industrial Model (WIM). It also catalogues and describes critical assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and model source code.
Released: October 12, 2011 , Contact: Peter Gross (202) 586-8822

World Energy Projection System Plus Model Documentation: Refinery Model
This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the World Energy Projection System Plus (WEPS+) Refinery Model. It also catalogues and describes critical assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and model source code.
Released: October 4, 2011 , Contact: Adrian Geagla (202) 586-2873

World Energy Projection System Plus Model Documentation: Macroeconomic Model
This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the World Energy Projection System Plus (WEPS+) Macroeconomic Model. It also catalogues and describes critical assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and model source code.
Released: September 29, 2011 , Contact: Brian Murphy (202) 586-1398

World Energy Projection System Plus Model Documentation: Transportation Model
This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the World Energy Projection System Plus (WEPS+) International Transportation model. It also catalogues and describes critical assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and model source code.
Released: September 29, 2011 , Contact: Victoria Zaretskaya (202) 287-5501

World Energy Projection System Plus Model Documentation: Greenhouse Gases Model
This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the World Energy Projection System Plus (WEPS+) Greenhouse Gases Model. It also catalogues and describes critical assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and model source code.
Released: September 29, 2011 , Contact: Brian Murphy 202-586-1398

World Energy Projection System Plus Model Documentation: Coal Model
This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the World Energy Projection System Plus (WEPS+) Coal Model. It also catalogues and describes critical assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and model source code.
Released: September 29, 2011 , Contact: Brian Murphy (202) 586-1398

World Energy Projection System Plus Model Documentation: District Heat Model
This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the World Energy Projection System Plus (WEPS+) District Heat Model. It also catalogues and describes critical assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and model source code.
Released: September 29, 2011 , Contact: Brian Murphy (202) 586-1398

World Energy Projection System Plus Model Documentation: Natural Gas Model
This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the World Energy Projection System Plus (WEPS+) Natural Gas Model. It also catalogues and describes critical assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and model source code.
Released: September 29, 2011 , Contact: Brian Murphy (202) 586-1398

World Energy Projection System Plus: An Overview
This report contains a summary description of the methodology and scope of WEPS+ and each of its component models. WEPS+ is a computer-based, energy modeling system of long-term international energy markets for the period through 2035. The system was used to produce the International Energy Outlook 2011.
Released: September 29, 2011 , Contact: Brian Murphy (202) 586-1398

World Energy Projection System Plus Model Documentation: World Electricity Model
This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the World Energy Projection System Plus (WEPS+) World Electricity Model. It also catalogues and describes critical assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and model source code.
Released: September 29, 2011 , Contact: Brian Murphy 202-586-1398

World Energy Projection System Plus Model Documentation: Commercial Model
This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the World Energy Projection System Plus (WEPS+) Commercial Model. It also catalogues and describes critical assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and model source code.
Released: September 29, 2011 , Contact: Brian Murphy (202) 586-1398

World Energy Projection System Plus Model Documentation: Residential Model
This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the World Energy Projection System Plus (WEPS+) Residential Model. It also catalogues and describes critical assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and model source code.
Released: September 29, 2011 , Contact: Brian Murphy (202) 586-1398

Industrial Demand Module
Documents the objectives, analytical approach, and development of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Industrial Demand Module. The report catalogues and describes model assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and model source code.
Released: June 1, 2011 , Contact: Kelly Perl (202) 586-1743

World Energy Projection System Plus Model Documentation: Main Model
This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the World Energy Projection System Plus (WEPS+) Main Model. It also catalogues and describes critical assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and model source code.
Released: January 20, 2011 , Contact: Information Center (202) 586-8800

Integrating Module of the National Energy Modeling System
Provides an overview of the complete National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) model, and includes brief descriptions of the modules with which the Integrating Module interacts. The emphasis and focus, however, is on the structure and function of the Integrating Module of NEMS.
Released: June 1, 2010 , Contact: Dan Skelly (202) 586-1722

NEMS - National Energy Modeling System: An Overview 2009, The
(also available in printer-friendly version).
The National Energy Modeling System: An Overview 2009 a summary description of NEMS and each of its components. NEMS is a computer-based, energy-economy modeling system of energy markets for the midterm period through 2030. The NEMS is used to produce the Annual Energy Outlook.
Released: October 1, 2009 , Contact: Paul Holtberg (202) 586-1284

NEMS - National Energy Modeling System: An Overview 2009, The
(also available in printer-friendly version).
The National Energy Modeling System: An Overview 2009 a summary description of NEMS and each of its components. NEMS is a computer-based, energy-economy modeling system of energy markets for the midterm period through 2030. The NEMS is used to produce the Annual Energy Outlook.
Released: October 1, 2009 , Contact: Paul Holtberg (202) 586-1284

Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System -- Model Documentation
Documentation of the modules that comprise the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System
Released: October 1, 2001

Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting
Final issue of this report. Presents a series of eight papers, which cover topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1999, as well as other significant issues in midterm energy markets.
Released: August 1, 1999 , Contact: Information Center (202) 586-8800

 

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