Beach Monitoring
Ohio Water Science Center
USGS In Your State
USGS Water Science Centers are located in each state.
|
Predictive Models
PREDICTIVE MODELS FOR RECREATIONAL WATER
QUALITY
Swim advisories
or closings are issued by beach managers on the basis of standards for
concentrations of bacterial indicators—Escherichia coli (E. coli) or enterococci
for freshwaters and enterococci for marine waters. The analytical methods for
these organisms, however, take at least 18–24 hours to complete. Recreational
water-quality conditions may change during this time, leading to erroneous
assessments of public-health risk. As a result, some agencies have turned to
predictive modeling to obtain near-real-time estimates of recreational water
quality. Predictive models, developed through statistical techniques such as
multiple linear regression (MLR), use easily measured environmental and
water-quality variables to estimate bacterial-indicator concentrations or the
probability of exceeding target concentrations.
Ohio Nowcast:
At
Huntington (Bay Village), Edgewater (Cleveland), and a recreational river in the
Cuyahoga Valley National Park (Independence), predictions based on models are
available to the public during the recreational season (May-Aug) through an
Internet-based system called the
Ohio Nowcast.
The nowcast is like a weather forecast, in that it provides the probability (in
percent) that the bathing-water standard for E. coli will be exceeded. (The Ohio
single-sample bathing-water standard for E. coli is 235 colony-forming units/100
milliliters). So on any given morning, there could be from a 1- to 100- percent
probability that the standard would be exceeded. How does one know when the
probability presents too great a risk to go swimming? Would you go swimming if
there was an 80-percent probability that the standard would be exceeded? What
about a 25 percent chance? To help out, beach managers established threshold
probabilities for Huntington and Edgewater based on historical data. If the
probability is greater than or equal to the threshold, than the beach is posted
with an advisory on the Ohio Nowcast.
How did the nowcast system perform in 2008? To find out, and to learn more about
developing models, refer to the
latest technical
publication on the Ohio Nowcast.
The USGS and its partners will continue to work to improve the predictive
abilities of the Ohio Nowcast models in 2009 and beyond.
How can we develop models for our beaches?
To
find out how to develop predictive models for your beaches in a step-by-step
fashion, click on the techniques
report. The steps to develop predictive models are data collection;
exploratory data analysis; model development, selection, and diagnosis;
determination of model out values; and model validation and refinement.
Collecting better data for predictive models:
Predictive modeling is a dynamic process meant to augment existing
beach-monitoring programs. Models should be continuously validated and refined
to improve predictions.
The USGS Ohio Water Science Center is
working with Northeast Ohio Regional Sewer District (NEORSD) and Cuyahoga County
Board of Health (CCBH) to collect more accurate wave height data. In the past,
wave heights were estimated by field crews based on visual determinations and
placed into one of four categories;
they
are currently measured by use of a wave measuring stick. To further improve
wave-height measurements, the USGS installed buoys at Edgewater and Huntington.
The buoys are equipped with instrumentation to measure wave heights and store
the data. Data from the buoy are transmitted hourly to a wireless access point.
We are also working to identify additional explanatory variables to include in
the models. For example, a sensor to measure photosynthetically active radiation
(PAR) was installed at Huntington during 2008. Increased sunlight, as measured
by PAR, has been shown to result in decreased levels of E. coli.
|