Topics

Analysis, commentary, and data on issues that concern the residents and businesses of the eastern Midwest — Kentucky, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia.

Economic Conditions

Household Formation and the Great Recession
During the Great Recession, the rate at which Americans formed households fell sharply. Though the rate has recently picked up, it isn't fast enough to make up for the shortfall in household formation that occurred over the last several years. An analysis of recent household formation patterns shows that the greatest shortfall occurred among young adults and that it is related to weak economic conditions. Housing choices have shifted as well, with a greater proportion of young households living in rental housing rather than owner-occupied homes. Read more (PDF)

Economic Growth

Variation in State GDP Growth during the Recovery
The recovery from the U.S. recession has not been uniform across the 50 states. Recent data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis through 2011 show that 20 states still had levels of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) below their 2007 levels. Over this same period, the United States as a whole experienced essentially breakeven growth, with an overall rise of less than one-tenth of a percent. Read more
  • Assessing the Evidence on Neighborhood Effects from Moving to Opportunity (PDF)
  • The Relationship between City Center Density and Urban Growth or Decline (PDF)
  • Neighborhood Dynamics and the Distribution of Opportunity (PDF)
  • See all Economic Growth content

Education

Delaying Enrollment and College Completion
The effect of a postsecondary education on labor market outcomes has been a central focus for policymakers and researchers. One reason for the interest is that significant evidence suggests that workers with a postsecondary education, in particular a bachelor’s degree, enjoy higher wages and higher job satisfaction. However, only about 30 percent of individuals who start a postsecondary education will actually attain a bachelor’s degree. One of the strongest correlates with bachelor degree completion is the timing of postsecondary education. Read more

Energy

The Fourth District: The Next Big Energy Producer?
When asked about domestic oil and natural gas production and where most of it occurs, people will likely reply: the region surrounding the Gulf of Mexico. This response is correct. Historically, states in the Fourth District have also played an important role in oil and natural gas production. The Fourth District is now positioned to make a comeback as a major domestic energy producer due to exploration and production in the Marcellus and Utica shales. Read more

Financial Literacy

Foreclosure

Recent Fourth District Foreclosure Trends
Some U.S. states have seen their foreclosure rates fall since the housing bust and recession. Some have seen them rise. In the Fourth District, for example, foreclosure rates remain at or near historic highs. Which outcome a state will experience seems to have a lot to do with the kind of process that is used in the state to resolve foreclosures. Read more

Government Finance

Municipal Borrowing Trends in the Fourth District
One distinct characteristic of the recent slow recovery has been financial strain of state and, especially, local governments. What does this strain imply for municipal borrowing? Are state and local governments canceling or postponing capital projects because they fear taking on new interest payments? Read more
  • Disadvantaged Business Enterprise Goals in Government Procurement Contracting: An Analysis of Bidding Behavior and Costs (PDF)
  • Private-Activity Municipal Bonds: The Political Economy of Volume Cap Allocation (PDF)
  • Ohio’s Budget (PDF)
  • See all Government Finance content

Housing

Wide Variation in House Price Decline across the Country
Since the peak of the housing market, which occurred in mid-2006 according to the Case-Shiller 10-city and 20-city composite indices, housing markets across the United States have seen large declines in home prices. However, some areas have fared much worse than others. Read more
  • Assessing the Evidence on Neighborhood Effects from Moving to Opportunity (PDF)
  • The Relationship between City Center Density and Urban Growth or Decline (PDF)
  • Neighborhood Dynamics and the Distribution of Opportunity (PDF)
  • See all Housing content

Labor Markets, Unemployment, and Wages

The College Wage Premium
The return on educational investments has risen substantially in the past 30 years. While the primary focus has been on the college wage premium, new evidence shows that the value of going to college is affected by a host of other important educational decisions, each of which has a potential large effect on future earnings. This Commentary examines the impact of two of these other decisions on earnings: the choice of a college major and the pursuit of an advanced degree. In some cases, differences in the college major premium are as large as the college wage premium itself. Read more (PDF)

Manufacturing

Recent Manufacturing Employment Growth
Over the past few months, the labor market has begun to show signs of stabilization. Lost in the excitement of multiple positive employment reports has been growth in the manufacturing industry. Even though industrial production numbers have been trending upward since last June, national manufacturing employment has only recently posted gains, adding 101,000 jobs in the first four months of 2010, while Fourth District states have been at the forefront of manufacturing employment growth. Read more

Metropolitan Area Profile

Regional Banking and Financial Institutions

Trade