Historical Collection on Ronald Reagan, Intelligence, and the End of the Cold War
In the 1980s, the Cold War was going strong and was made worse by events such as the death of three Soviet leaders in a span of three years, the Soviet shootdown of a Korean airliner, and the USSR's support for Communist governments and movements in Afghanistan and Central America. This collection of declassified documents and other material highlights what the CIA provided President Reagan and other top members of his national security team on key issues affecting US-Soviet relations. The collection--made up of intelligence assessments, National Intelligence Estimates, high-level memos, and DCI talking points--consists of over 200 documents, some 60 of which are either being made available to the public for the first time or are being re-released with new material. To help put this material in perspective, we are also including non-CIA documents from the archives of the Reagan Library to fill out the collection on the policy end.
Documents
1980-11-14 Briefing for President-elect Reagan's Foreign Policy Assessment Board
1980-11-14a DCI Meeting with President-Elect's Staff
1980-11-14b DCI Pre-Brief for President-elect Reagan Briefings
1980-11-21 Briefings of the President-Elect (Memo for the Record)
1980-11-21a CIA Status Report on Transition (CIA Memo)
1980-11-21b Agenda for President-elect's Foreign Policy Assessment Board, 21 November 1980
1980-11-24 President-elect Briefings (CIA Memo)
1980-11-25 Telephone Conversation with Richard Allen (Memo for the Record)
1980-12-01 Staff Meeting Minutes of 1 December 1980 (Memo for the Record)
1980-12-11 Agenda for Briefing of President-elect Reagan
1980-12-12 Background Briefing for the President-elect (Note for DCI)
1980-12-16 DCI Briefing of the President-Elect (MFR)
1981-01-01 USSR: Economic Issues Facing the Leadership (Intelligence Assessment)
1981-02-05 Talking Points for National Security Council Meeting Friday, Feb 6, 1981 from 1:30 to 2:20 p.m.
1981-05-06 Memo for the President from DCI Casey - Progress at the CIA
1981-06-15 Soviet Space Program (DCI Memo)
1981-07-06 National Security Council Meeting on East-West Trade Controls (NSC Meeting Minutes)
1981-07-08 CIA Memorandum on Siberian Pipeline
1981-07-08a Summary and Analysis of Discussion at July 6, 1981, NSC Meeting
1981-07-09 National Security Council Meeting on East-West Trade Controls (NSC Meeting Minutes)
1981-07-17 Interagency Memo on Discussion of U.S. Intelligence Needs on Soviet Ballistic Missile Defense, with tasking memo from Richard Allen
1981-07-21 National Security Planning Group Meeting Wednesday, July 22, 1981
1981-07-21a NSPG Meeting 22 July 1981 on Soviet Grain Agreement (CIA Memo)
1981-08-01 Prospects for Accelerated Soviet Defense Effort (DI Intelligence Memorandum)
1981-09-01 Economics of the Siberia-To-Europe Gas Pipeline (DI Intelligence Assessment)
1981-09-01a Moscow and the Reagan Administration: Initial Assessments and Responses (NIC Memo)
1981-0902 FBIS Analysis Report - The Soviet Leadership Situation: Signs of Maneuvering Since the CPSU Congress
1981-09-18 Succession in USSR (DCI Memo to NIC Chairman)
1981-10-06 Soviet Potential to Respond to US Strategic Force Improvements, and Foreign Reactions (Special National Intelligence Estimate)
1981-11-01 The New Direction of Soviet Demographic Policy (DI Intelligence Assessment)
1981-11-04 NSPG Meeting on TNF and the Caribbean (CIA Memo)
1981-11-10 National Security Council Meeting on TNF Scheduled for 12 November at 1600 hours (CIA Memo)
1981-11-16 National Security Decision Directive Number 15 - Theater Nuclear Forces
1981-11-17 Dependence of Soviet Military Power on Economic Relations with the West (SNIE 3/11-4-81), with cover memo to the President from Richard Allen
1981-11-21 Cover Memo to the President from William J. Casey on Dependence of Soviet Military Power SNIE
1982-01-01 Soviet Economic Dependence on the West (DI Intelligence Assessment)
1982-10-01a Soviet and Eastern Europe Economic Problems (CIA Paper)
1982-01-01b The Soviet Challenge: The Determinants of Soviet Behavior (CIA Paper)
1982-03-25 Vulnerabilities of the Soviet Economy and Possible Policy Initiatives for the US (DCI Remarks to the President's Economic Policy Advisory Board)
1982-04-01 The Soviet Bloc Financial Problem as a Source of Western Influence (NIC Memo), with cover memo to DCI from NIC Chairman
1982-04-01a The Soviet Political Succession: Institutions, People, and Policies (DI Intelligence Assessment)
1982-04-21 National Security Council Meeting on Strategic Arms Reductions Talks (NSC Meeting Minutes)
1982-04-22 Soviet Political Succession (Letter to the President from William J. Casey)
1982-05-01 Soviet Economic "Reform" Decrees: More Steps on the Treadmill (DI Research Paper)
1982-05-03 USSR: Institutional Factors in the Succession (CIA Special Analysis)
1982-05-04 USSR: Candidates for the Succession (CIA Special Analysis)
1982-05-10 Policy Implications of Soviet Succession (Tasking memo from DCI Casey to Deputy Director for Intelligence)
1982-05-20 Some Implications of the Soviet Political Succession for US Policy (Memo from NIO for USSR/EE to DCI Casey)
1982-05-20a Western Alternatives to Soviet Natural Gas: Prospects and Implications (CIA Typescript Memo with cover note from Director of Soviet Analysis)
1982-06-25 Soviet Policies and Activities in Latin America and the Caribbean (Special National Intelligence Estimate)
1982-07-26 NIE 11-4-82: The Soviet Challenge to US Security Interests (Internal NIC Memo)
1982-08-01 Depressed Trajectories: Unlikely Role for Soviet SLBMs (DI Intelligence Assessment)
1982-08-10 The Soviet Challenge to US Security Interests (National Intelligence Estimate)
1982-08-21 National Security Study Directive Number 11-82 - US Policy Toward the Soviet Union
1982-09-02 National Security Decision Directive 54 - United States Policy Toward Eastern Europe
1982-09-08 Draft Terms of Reference for SNIE 3/11-2-82, The Soviet Gas Pipeline in Perspective (Memo from NIC Chairman Rowen to NFIB Principals)
1982-09-15 National Security Decision Directive Number 56 - Private INF Exchange
1982-09-17 SNIE 3/11-2-82: The Soviet Gas Pipeline in Perspective (Memo to the President from DCI Casey)
1982-09-21 The Soviet Gas Pipeline in Perspective (Special National Intelligence Estimate)
1982-10-07 Comments on NSC Critique of "Outlook for the Siberia-to-Western Europe Natural Gas Pipeline" (CIA MFR with cover note from DCI Casey)
1982-10-13 Soviet Ballistic Missile Defense (NIE 11-13-82), Key Judgments and Summary
1982-11-01 Military Implications of Increased Soviet Tungsten Imports (DI Intelligence Assessment)
1982-11-10 COCOM (NSC Memo)
1982-11-20 Andropov: His Power and Program (Memo to DCI Casey from DDI Robert Gates)
1982-11-23 Strategic Technology Transfer (NSC Memo)
1982-12-01 Soviet Elite Concerns About Popular Discontent and Official Corruption (DI Intelligence Assessment)
1982-12-01a Soviet Society in the 1980s: Problems and Prospects (DI Research Paper)
1982-12-06 US Relations with the USSR: Response to NSSD 11-82 (CIA Paper)
1982-12-13 Assessment of Andropov's Power & The State of the Soviet Economy in the 1980s (DI Assessments, with two cover notes fm DDI Gates)
1982-12-14 NSC Meetings on US Policy Toward the Soviet Union (Memo from NIO for USSR/EE to DCI Casey)
1982-12-22 USSR-Italy-Bulgaria: Coming to Bulgaria's Defense (NID article)
1983-01-17 National Security Decision Directive Number 75 - US Relations with the USSR (with cover memo from William P. Clark)
1983-02-01 Soviet Strategy To Derail US INF Deployment (DI Intelligence Assessment)
1983-02-25 National Security Study Directive Number 1-83 - US Technology Transfer Policy
1983-04-01 Dimensions of Civil Unrest in the Soviet Union (NIC Memo)
1983-05-27 Soviet Use of Economic Relations for Political Purposes (DI Memo, with two cover notes)
1983-08-09 Andropov's Approach to Key US-Soviet Issues (National Intelligence Estimate)
1983-09-12 Possible Soviet Responses to the US Strategic Defense Initiative (NIC Interagency Intelligence Assessment)
1983-11-30 Why is the World so Dangerous? (NIC Memo)
1983-12-01 USSR: Policy Toward the Consumer (DI Intelligence Assessment)
1983-12-12 Whither the Soviet Leadership (NIC Memo)
1983-12-30 Soviet Thinking on the Possibility of Armed Confrontation with the United States (DI Memo, with cover note to D/SOVA)
1984-01-11 CIA Study on Soviet Thinking on the Possibility of Armed Confrontation with the US (NSC Memo from Jack Matlock to Robert McFarlane)
1984-01-14 National Security Decision Directive Number 121 - Soviet Noncompliance with Arms Control Agreements
1984-01-21 U.S.-Soviet Relations (Memo from Robert McFarlane to DCI Casey)
1984-02-03 Andropov's Leadership Style and Strategy (DI Paper with cover memo from Acting DCI John N. McMahon to Robert McFarlane)
1984-02-10 Andropov's Legacy and the Future (CIA Memo sent to SSCI and HPSCI)
1984-02-13 After Andropov: The Coming Turbulence in Soviet Politics (NIC memo with cover memo from NIC Chairman Robert Gates)
1984-02-27 Soviet Views on a Possible Summit Meeting (CIA Memo)
1984-03-23 Soviet Interest in Arms Control Negotiations in 1984 (DI Memo)
1984-03-24 NSC Meeting on Nuclear Arms Control in 1984 Tuesday, March 27 (NSC Memo from Bob Linhard to Robert McFarlane)
1984-03-26 NSC Meeting on START, 27 March 1984 (CIA Memo to DCI Casey providing suggested talking points for NSC Meeting)
1984-03-27 Proposed Talking Points for Robert C. McFarlane, NSC, March 27, 1984
1984-03-27a National Security Planning Group Meeting on Nuclear Arms Control Discussions (NSPG Meeting Minutes)
1984-03-31 National Security Decision Directive Number 137 - US Nuclear Arms Control Strategy for 1984
1984-05-18 Implications of Recent Soviet Military-Political Activities (Soviet War Scare) (Special National Intelligence Estimate)
1984-06-28 What Should We Do About the Russians? (NIC Memo)
1984-08-14 Soviet Policy Toward the United States in 1984 (Special National Intelligence Estimate)
1984-09-13 Tuesday's NSPG Meeting (Memo to DCI Casey from Chief, Arms Control Intelligence Staff)
1984-09-18 National Security Council Meeting on Next Steps in the Vienna Process
1984-10-17 Memorandum to Director Casey Regarding CIA Research on Soviet Energy Development (NSC Memo to Robert McFarlane)
1984-10-24 Memo From John Poindexter to Robert Gates on CIA Research on Soviet Energy Development
1984-11-30 National Security Planning Group Meeting on Soviet Defense and Arms Control Objectives (NSPG Meeting Minutes)
1984-12-05 National Security Planning Group Meeting on US-Soviet Arms Control Objectives (NSPG Meeting Minutes)
1984-12-08 Briefing Book for NSPG Meeting (Memo to DCI Casey from Chief, Arms Control Intelligence Staff)
1984-12-17 Talking Points NSPG on Arms Control 17 December 1984 (CIA Talking Points prepared for DCI Casey)
1985-01-01 National Security Decision Directive Number 153 - Instructions for the Shultz-Gromyko Meeting in Geneva
1985-03-01 Soviet Strategic and Political Objectives in Arms Control (Special National Intelligence Estimate)
1985-03-01a Soviet Strategic and Political Objectives in Arms Control in 1985 (Special National Intelligence Estimate)
1985-03-05 Soviet Directed Energy Weapons--Perspectives on Strategic Defense (DI Research Paper)
1985-04-25 Soviet Capabilities for Strategic Nuclear Conflict Through the Mid-1990s: Key Judgments (NIE 11-3/8-84/85)
1985-06-01 Gorbachev, the New Broom (DI Memo, with cover note to President Reagan from DCI Casey)
1985-06-28 CIA Paper on "Gorbachev, the New Broom" (NSC Memo from Jack Matlock to Robert C. McFarlane)
1985-07-01a Gorbachev's Domestic Agenda (CIA/State Dept Memo)
1985-07-01b The Soviet Economy in Perspective (DI Memo)
1985-07-01c USSR: The Role of Foreign Trade in the Economy (DI Memo)
1985-07-01d Gorbachev's Personal Agenda for the November Meeting (DI Memo)
1985-08-01 Gorbachev's Approach to Societal Malaise: A Managed Revitalization (DI Intelligence Assessment)
1985-09-01 Gorbachev's Economic Agenda: Promises, Potentials, and Pitfalls (DI Intelligence Assessment)
1985-09-09 Letter to the President from William J. Casey
1985-09-09a Moscow's View of the Reagan Adminstration (DI Memo)
1985-09-09b Gorbachev's Prospective Course (DI Memo)
1985-09-19 DCI Talking Points (CIA Memo to DCI Casey)
1985-09-20 National Security Council Meeting on Soviet Foreign Minister Shevardnadze's Visit (NSC Meeting Minutes)
1985-09-20a DCI Talking Points for NSC Meeting on Shevardnadze Visit (CIA Memo prepared for DCI Casey)
1985-10-03 NSC Memo on Early Intelligence Analysis of Gorbachev's SS-20 Statements in Paris (NSC Memo to Robert McFarlane, with Spot Commentary from CIA)
1985-10-29 DCI Talking Points NSPG re Arms Control (CIA Memo prepared for DCI Casey)
1985-11-01 Domestic Stresses on the Soviet System (NIE 11-18-85, with cover memo from Jack Matlock to Robert McFarlane)
1985-11-01a The Soviet Computer Literacy Program: Problems and Prospects (DI Intelligence Assessment)
1985-11-01b Societal Issues (Text of DI Briefing)
1985-11-06 National Intelligence Estimate 11-18-85, Domestic Stresses on the Soviet System (Gates memo to McFarlane)
1985-11-13 Meeting with Soviet Analysts -- November 13, 1985 (NSC Briefing Book)
1985-11-13a DCI Talking Points Meeting with the President 13 November 1985
1985-12-01 Soviet Space Programs, Volume 1 - Key Judgments and Executive Summary (NIE 11-1-85J)
1986-02-03 National Security Planning Group Meeting on Arms Control - Responding to Gorbachev (NSPG Meeting Minutes)
1986-02-03a DCI Talking Points for NSPG on US Options in Arms Control (Talking Points prepared for DCI Casey)
1986-03-01 Gorbachev's Modernization Program: Implications for Defense (DI Intelligence Assessment)
1986-03-19 The Soviet Economy Under a New Leader (CIA/DIA Paper)
1986-04-01 Soviet Forces and Capabilities for Strategic Nuclear Conflict Through the Mid-1990s (NIE 11-3/8-86)
1986-04-01a The 27th CPSU Congress: Gorbachev's Unfinished Business (DI Intelligence Assessment)
1986-04-01b The New CPSU Program: Charting the Soviet Future (DI paper)
1986-04-09 Gorbachev on East-West Relations (FBIS Trends)
1986-04-16 DCI Talking Points - NSPG re RSVP
1986-04-29 Implications of the Chernobyl Disaster (NIC Memo)
1986-05-01 USSR: Facing the Dilemma of Hard Currency Shortages (DI Research Paper)
1986-06-06 DCI Talking Points - NSPG re US-USSR Relations 6 June 1986
1986-06-12 DCI Talking Points - NSPG re US-USSR Relations 12 June 1986
1986-07-17 DCI Talking Points - Meeting with the President re Arms Control
1986-09-01 Gorbachev's Policy Toward the United States, 1986-88 (SNIE 11-9-86)
1986-09-01a Implications of the Decline in Soviet Hard Currency Earnings (NIE 11-23-86)
1986-09-03 Soviet Strategic Forces in the 1990s in a No-SALT Environment (NI IIA 86-10004)
1986-10-02 Gorbachev's Position on the Eve of the Summit (DI report)
1986-10-06 Talking Points for DCI on Reykjavik Goals
1986-10-07 Talking Points on Soviet Strategy and Performance in Afghanistan (for NSPG meeting)
1986-10-07a DCI Talking Points - NSPG re Arms Control
1986-11-01 Soviet Policy Toward Nicaragua (DI IA)
1987-02-01 Gorbachev's Domestic Challenge: The Looming Problems (DI Intelligence Assessment)
1987-02-06 National Security Decision Directive Number 258 - Anti-Satellite (ASAT) Program
1987-04-01 The Papal Assassination Conspiracy Trial: Inconclusive Results (DI/OGI Memo)
1987-07-01 Gorbachev: Steering the USSR into the 1990s (DI Intelligence Assessment)
1987-07-01a Soviet Forces and Capabilities for Strategic Nuclear Conflict Through the Late 1990s (NIE 11-3/8-87W - Key Judgments)
1987-08-01 Soviet S&T Policies and Strategies Under Gorbachev (NIE 11-7-87)
1987-09-08 National Security Planning Group Meeting on Review of United States Arms Control Positions
1987-09-10 Gorbachev's Current Summit Calculations (DI Memorandum)
1987-11-01 Soviet SDI Response Options: The Resource Dilemma (DI Research Paper)
1987-11-01a Whither Gorbachev: Soviet Policy and Politics in the 1990s (NIE 11-18-87)
1987-11-04 Tasking to CIA to Prepare Video (NSC Memo)
1987-11-24 Gorbachev's Gameplan: The Long View (Memo by DDCI Gates)
1987-12-01 Soviet Management of Technology and Military Systems Development (NIC Interagency Intelligence Memorandum)
1987-12-01a The Chernobyl Accident: Social and Political Implications (DI Research Paper)
1988-02-03 USSR-US: Moscow Gives No Ground on ABM Treaty Adherence, SDI (FBIS Trends)
1988-02-03a USSR: Moscow Battles Resistance to Expanded Private Economy (FBIS Trends)
1988-02-09 National Security Planning Group Meeting on US Options for Arms Control at the Summit
1988-03-01 East European Contributions to Soviet Technology Development (Interagency Intelligence Memorandum)
1988-04-01 USSR: Coping with the Decline in Hard Currency Revenues (DI Intelligence Assessment)
1988-05-01 Soviet Policy Toward Eastern Europe Under Gorbachev (NIE 11/12-9-88)
1988-05-06 Soviet Approaches to Human Rights (DI Memo)
1988-05-21 Background Film for your Moscow Summit Trip (NSC Memo to President Reagan from Colin Powell)
1988-06-01 USSR: Sharply Higher Budget Deficits Threaten Perestroyka (DI Research Paper)
1988-06-01a Soviet National Security Policy: Responses to the Changing Military and Economic Environment (Intelligence Assessment)
1988-06-22 The 19th All-Union Party Conference: Restructuring the Soviet Political System (DI Memorandum)
1988-06-22a USSR: Gorbachev Shows Resolve as Party Conference Approaches (FBIS Trends)
1988-08-01 USSR: Organizational Measures Fail To Spur Technological Progress (DI Research Paper)
1988-09-27 Leadership Situation in the USSR: Prospects for a Leadership Crisis (DI Memo)
1988-11-01 Soviet Policy During the Next Phase of Arms Control in Europe (Special National Intelligence Estimate)
1988-11-01a Soviet Dependence on Imports From the West: Why the Numbers Belie the Rhetoric (DI Memo)
1988-12-01 Gorbachev's Economic Programs: The Challenges Ahead (National Intelligence Estimate)
1988-12-01a Gorbachev's September Housecleaning: An Early Evaluation (DI Intelligence Assessment)
1988-12-01b Soviet Forces and Capabilities for Strategic Nuclear Conflict Through the late 1990s (NIE 11-3/8-88)
1989-01-20 Pravda Profile of Ronald Reagan (FBIS)
1989-03-01 The Soviet Economy in a Global Perspective (DI Research Paper)
1989-04-01 Soviet Policy Toward the West: The Gorbachev Challenge (NIE 11-4-89)
1989-04-01a Rising Political Instability Under Gorbachev: Understanding the Problem and Prospects for Resolution (DI Intelligence Assessment)
1989-06-01 Gorbachev's Reorganization of the Party: Breaking the Stranglehold on the Apparatus (DI Research Paper)
1990-11-01 The Deepening Crisis in the USSR: Prospects for the Next Year (NIE 11-18-90)
1991-04-25 The Soviet Cauldron (DI Paper)
1991-05-23 Gorbachev's Future (DI Paper)
1993-03-01 INF Deployment: The Role of Intelligence Analysts in a Policy Success (An Intelligence Monograph)
1995-06-01 CIA and the Fall of the Soviet Empire: The Politics of "Getting it Right" (A Case Study)
1996-05-01 CIA Assessments of the Soviet Union: The Record Versus the Charges (Article by Douglas MacEachin)
1997-09-01 A Cold War Conundrum: The 1983 Soviet War Scare (An Intelligence Monograph)
1998-12-01 Ronald Reagan and the President's Daily Brief (Article)
2001-01-01 Intelligence and US Missile Defense Planning: Supporting Policymakers (Article)
2008-02-29 Intelligence Estimates of the Soviet Collapse (Journal article)
2011-04-01 Ronald Reagan, Intelligence, and CIA (Overview article)
2011-05-25 What Should We Expect of Intelligence (Journal article)