How to read Friday’s messy jobs report

Friday’s jobs report may not carry the same competitive weight it did before the election, but as the fiscal cliff threatens to wipe out the economy it’s still a much-anticipated event. Before you fire off your response tweet, Wonkblog’s Neil Irwin explains why the top-line numbers won’t tell the whole story: 

Start with whatever any given jobs report tells us about the underlying state of the economy, namely whether hiring picked up or slowed down in the previous month. Adjust for the statistical randomness that can give misleading signals. Now add in the fact that around the holidays, the seasonal adjustment process looms particularly large and can create distortions; for example, Thanksgiving fell early this year, so retailers may have added temporary workers earlier than they usually do. Add in a looming austerity crisis of tax hikes and spending cuts scheduled to take effect Jan. 1; quite possibly, employers are holding back on hiring until a resolution is found, though with all the other things going on, it will be hard to separate that effect from everything else. And finally, account for a superstorm that shut down commerce in some of the nation’s most populous areas during the week of the jobs survey.

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  • 6:02 pm

  • December 6, 2012
  • Amy Gardner

Tea party activists excited about Jim DeMint move

Tea party activists hailed DeMint’s move to Heritage as a sign that the think tank will play a more prominent role fighting for conservative causes.

“I was shocked, and at first I said, ‘Oh no,’ but then I said, ‘Wait a minute, let’s think about this,” said Joe Dugan, chairman of the Myrtle Beach Tea Party in South Carolina. “The Heritage Foundation is a tremendous organization, and as president of it he will have a broad, broad platform to educate people across the country about
conservative ideas and ideals. And that’s what the country needs.”

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Bill Clinton: ‘Don’t get too disgusted’

Former president Bill Clinton, who knows a thing or two about tangling with House Republicans, has some advice for anyone annoyed by the current state of negotiations.

“Don’t get too disgusted by what you see — they’re doing a little dance now,” he told the audience at De Anza College’s Flint Center Wednesday night. “I’ll be very surprised if they don’t do a reasonably acceptable deal.”

Clinton also answered — or at least, responded to — questions about his wife’s political future. “IIf I did know, I wouldn’t tell you,” he said when asked if Hillary Clinton would run for president. ”She’s in great shape; she has unbelievable stamina,” he said, but she needs some rest before she decides on her next move.

Reince Priebus launches re-election campaign

Republican National Commitee Chairman Reince Priebus has officially launched his reelection campaign, CNN reports.

In his letter to the 168-member committee, Priebus emphasizes his overwhelming support — a warning for potential rivals. Former Oklahoma Rep. J.C. Watts has suggested he might challenge Priebus, saying the current RNC has not done enough to appeal to minorities.  

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  • 1:57 pm

  • December 6, 2012
  • Rosalind S. Helderman

McConnell blocks up-or-down vote on Obama debt ceiling proposal

(Alex Brandon — Associated Press)

In a bit of parliamentary squabbling common only to the United States Senate, the chamber will not be voting Thursday on President Obama’s proposal to largely shift responsibility for raising the debt ceiling from Congress to the White House.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) proposed an immediate vote on the idea Thursday morning, as a way to highlight potential Democratic unease with the idea.

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  • 1:32 pm

  • December 6, 2012
  • Amy Gardner

Christie and Obama meet at the White House

Obama tours storm damage with Christie (Jewel Samad — AFP/Getty Images)

President Obama met with New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) Thursday to talk about federal assistance with recovery efforts from Hurricane Sandy, the massive superstorm that killed 131 people in eight states, leveled neighborhoods on Long Island and along the Jersey shore and caused billions of dollars in damage.

Christie was spotting entering the West Wing Thursday morning, and White House Press Secretary Jay Carney confirmed that the Republican governor met briefly with the president before sitting down for more extensive conversations about the recovery with senior advisers.

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