We all want TV Done Right, free of the Soviet Era set-top box, UI and opaque contracts. We imagine Apple will put all the pieces together. But what’s desirable and “obvious” might not be so simple or soon…
“When I go into my living room and turn on the TV, I feel like I have gone backwards in time by 20 to 30 years,” Apple CEO Tim Cook told . NBC’s Brian Williams “It’s an area of intense interest. I can’t say more than that.”
These words — and similar ones in a substantial Bloomberg interview — launched yet another round of frenzied speculation about the mythical Apple TV.
Piper Jaffray’s Gene Munster insists that an Apple TV in 2013 is a sure thing. “It will be the biggest thing in consumer electronics since the smartphone“. (Of course, Munster has been saying this every year for the last three years…)
Another analyst, Wells Fargo’s Maynard Um, agrees that the device is inevitable, if only because a full-fledged television is “more in tune” with Apple than a simple set-top box.
Hmmm…
First, let’s take a calmer look at Tim Cook’s words. As many have noted, there’s nothing new here. Cook said essentially the same things at the D10 Conference last May and has repeated the message on earnings conference calls. The only changes to the Apple TV script in the past twelve months are the stated number of black pucks sold in the last fiscal year (more than 5 million), and an upgrade from “hobby” to “intense interest”. The actual meaning of this “interest” is widely open to interpretation.
Speculation aside, Cook has one thing right: The set-top box experience does place one back in time by 20 to 30 years:
– We still can’t order channels à la carte or search the program grid. For the latter you have to go to your tablet. And forget about the former.
– You can’t buy your own set-top box; you have to rent it from your carrier. For STB makers, there’s no incentive to build a better product.
– Add in the contorted rights and packages games played by the content providers and you end up with today’s mess.
The solution? Channels, shows, special events should all be presented as apps. Click, pay, and play, with standard fare for free. Catch the 6 pm news when you get home at 9:30; watch two programs side-by-side with Android 7 or iOS 9, all on your screen of choice: smartphone, tablet, PC, or TV.
The technology isn’t an issue. There’s enough bandwidth on cable (or pretend-fiber) networks, plenty of storage on servers, and all the required computing power in current or future TV boxes, from Apple and its competitors.
But there’s an obstacle in the tangled, encrusted business models that the Comcasts, CBSs, and Disneys cling to out of fear that Apple will wrest control of their content, that they’ll be disintermediated a la iTunes or the iPhone/iPad App Store.
Second, I simply don’t believe Apple will make, or even wants to make, a TV set. To realize the dream, as discussed previously, you need to put a computer — something like an Apple TV module — inside the set. Eighteen months later, as Moore’s Law dictates, the computer is obsolete but the screen is just fine. No problem, you’ll say, just make the computer module removable, easily replaced by a new one; more revenue for Apple…and you’re right back to today’s separate box arrangement. And you can spread said box to all HDTVs, not just the hypothetical Apple-brand set.
If carriers and content owners can be tricked, bribed, sued, or otherwise made to see the light and wisdom of higher revenue per subscriber, the TV Done Right will descend from Heaven in the form of a next generation Apple set-top box, not a TV set.
So why is Tim Cook talking about Apple TV at all?
The simplest explanation is that he’s simply answering an interviewer’s question. Possible… but not likely in such tightly choreographed exercises.
A cheekier possibility is that the answer is a head fake. Cook, a noted College Football fan, is trying to draw Google offsides, to provoke then into yet another embarrassing Google TV moment. And maybe even goad Microsoft into another WebTV dud.
Amusing… but not likely.
In Google’s case, the failed experiment has been digested and the next iteration will be much sharper. (Note well that Google’s subsidiary Motorola is putting its set-top box business up for bids, with “vendor financing possible”…)
For Microsoft, the company is happy with its successful Xbox ecosystem and its ability to provide TV content through its game console, even if that content doesn’t flow onto its phone and tablets as nicely as they would like. In any event, Tim Cook wishes Steve Ballmer no ill — au contraire, Cook wants Ballmer to stay on the job as long as he keeps helping his friends in Cupertino.
A more serious interpretation: Apple’s CEO is indicating that he’ll continue to invest talent and money until the TV obstacles are finally surmounted. In other words: “Join us and ride the wave that will sweep away the competition”.
Speaking of the competition, Sony is trying to break free from its profitless HDTV past by building a new 4K TV business.
If you have the opportunity, treat yourself to a 4K TV demo at a Sony Store. The spectacle is stunning: You see the delicate capillaries on a baby’s eyelids, feathers on birds, minute details on street scenes without any of the blurring you get on today’s HDTV.
With 3,840 by 2,160 pixels on an 80-inch TV screen, the 4K boasts 4 times the resolution of 1080p (1920 by 1080)… and an even greater price tag ratio: $25K vs $2K or less. The 4K TV is delivered with a server that contains full-resolution movies because cable and satellite carriers provide no such content — and have no plans to do so.
Sony has a valuable asset in its movie library and a need to push its new 4K TV technology. Could this portend an Apple-Sony alliance? The two companies have worked well together in the past, a CEO-level conversation could easily happen. But even if an Apple TV box provided a strong showcase for a Sony 4K TV set, carriers would still have to be shown how to milk the opportunity.
On still more sober musings, let’s consider Apple TV’s place in the company’s business. In the 2012 fiscal year ending last september, Apple’s total revenue was $156B. 5 million Apple TVs translates into $500M; that’s 0.3% of the company’s total.
Why bother? In 2014, Apple’s revenue could exceed $250B. Even if Apple TV sales were to grow by ten times, they would still represent no more than a 2% fragment of the total.
The answer is that Apple TV isn’t meant to generate revenue but to enhance the value of the more muscular, profit-making members of the ecosystem: iPhones, iPads and, to a lesser extent, Macs. In a similar, grander, and now well-understood way, iTunes isn’t in the business of making money by itself. iTunes made the iPod larger than the Mac in 2006, and it made the App Store possible — and the iPhone and the iPad as profit engines.
For Apple TV, is there a path from today’s supporting role to a $50B size, to 20% of Apple’s revenue in 2014? (Gene Munster thinks there is.)
My belief is that Apple TV sales numbers will continue to increase as the device is slowly, patiently improved and the ecosystem is enhanced. In a not-too-distant future we’ll see explicit Apple TV apps, similar to those on iPhones and iPads.
And someday, Apple will reach a limited agreement with a carrier such as Comcast. The enhanced experience will create a wedge — and will spur competitors. As a result, TV will at last become “modern” — sitting down in front of your TV set will no longer send you time traveling to 1992.
——————
Late update, an amusing coincidence: a just-discovered “Apple TV set” at Lyfe, a modern Palo Alto eatery.
With my apologies for the low quality pictures, this is the menu on five TV sets, side-by-side in portrait mode:
And, if you’re curious, you discover five Mac Minis bolted to the back of the TV sets:
Gene Munster should take a look.
–
Related columns:
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- Apple Is Doomed: The Phony Sony Parallel TweetIn the weeks preceding the April 24th release of Apple’s quarterly earnings, a number of old canards sent the stock down by about 12%: Carriers are going to kill the iPhone Golden Goose by cutting back “exorbitant” subsidies; iPhone sales are down from the previous quarter in the US; inexorable commoditization will soon bring down [...]...
- An Apple TV Set In Our Future? TweetNot another Apple TV black box but a real 50” flat-screen TV, “Designed by Apple in California” — and Made in China, like most Apple products. Or Made In Korea, if the company concludes a new pact with its best frenemy, Samsung, the new king of TV sets, the new Sony. Rumors of an Apple [...]...
- Apple Post-Quartum Thoughts TweetAs if you haven’t heard, Apple posted its Q4 earnings last week. I’ll spare you my own encomium and refer you to these links: Despite its title, Business Insider’s list of Facts About Apple’s Business That Will Blow Your Mind contains little or no hype. TechCrunch provides context for Apple’s “massive numbers”. Brian Hall offers [...]...
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48 Comments
Regarding the update, I think they could have gotten away with one Mac mini: 1 via HDMI, 1 via TB/mDP, 3 via USB (using an adapter). However, it might not look as pretty with the cables.
Apple might make a TV but, in fact, it will be a computer in sheep’s clothing. Apple only makes computers because that what it loves. Computers. That’s Apple’s lust and hearts blood and mission in life. It also knows people have learned to hate computers. So it disguises computers as phones and walkmans and maybe TVs.
Maybe. Because Apple’s learned that the best way to hide a computer, appealing as it is, is to connect it to a a firehose of highly appealing content. Content that’s relatively cheap and relatively exclusive. So: No buck a tune, no iPod. No buck an app, no iPhone. No buck a show, not iTV.
How do you get to $250B revenue in 2014? The last 2 quarters have shown the slowest growth since the iPhone came out. Comps are tough for Q1 given how huge it was last year. And Apple has real competition now.
It seems Apple needs a new business to keep growth from drastically slowing, no?
Great post. Says it all. Let me just put it this way:
Apple might make a TV but, in fact, it will be a computer in sheep’s clothing. Apple only makes computers because that what it loves. Computers. That’s Apple’s lust and heart’s blood and mission in life. It also knows people have learned rightfully to hate computers. So it disguises computers as phones and walkmans and maybe TVs.
Maybe. Because Apple’s learned it is not enough to disguise the computer or even to make it damn pretty: No buck a tune, no iPod. No buck an app, no iPhone. So Apple knows it also needs a firehose of highly appealing content. Content that’s relatively cheap and relatively exclusive. Ergo no buck a show, no iTube.
I leave it to the moderator to delete my first version of this posting, with my apologies.
The problem is less technical but politics and commercial.
Politics because corralization control a large part of the revenue of show business.
Commercial because the system needs that customers renew their purchase because their gizmos are outdated.
You just have to look at Textbook deal to see What Apple will bring to TV.
Absolutely Nothing. Big Six will not give an inch.
Please see Latest episode of Bill Moyers to see Why.
http://billmoyers.com/segment/bernie-sanders-on-why-big-media-shouldnt-get-bigger/
Sounds like a very cool thing to me dude.
http://www.GotzAnon.tk
@ Bruno: You’re right, my $250B number for 2014 is speculative. Perhaps you could help the discussion here by offering your own number. The same can be said for “Apple growth drastically slowing”, do you have percentage numbers for growth in 2013, 2014 and beyond?
From 2006 to 2007 to 2008 to 2009 to 2010 to 2011 to 2012 Apple revenue growth percentages have been 27%, 52%, 14% (financial meltdown), 52%, 66% and 45%.
If Apple were to grow from $156.5B in FY 2012 to $250B in FY 2014 that would be 60% growth in two years, about 26.3% yearly compounded over 2 years. So, indeed, this would be a slowdown.
That said, its hard to think about Apple growth beyond the usual bromides: No tree growth to the sky, all organizations eventually die and so on. Apple is a fairly abnormal, singular company: Clayton Christensen, he of the Innovator’s Dilemma, calls Apple a freak because it doesn’t follow its theory.
In areas such as smartphones and tablets Apple still has lots of room to grow — and very tough competitors. We’ll see.
I totally disagree. I think a TV is coming sooner rather than later from Apple. I think you are making the same mistake that was made before iPad. People imagined a Mac with a touch screen and the very cheapest price they could come up with was $999 and they couldn’t see a market for that, because there isn’t one. But Apple surprised with an iOS computer with a touch screen for $499.
Right now, we are all thinking that Apple has to innovate in glass. They do not. They can ship a fairly standard HD glass in the first couple of generations of Apple TV set just like the first 2 iPads have standard PC glass of 1024×768. Nice viewing angles, great color, but fairly standard glass. It’s all the other parts that need total reinventing. Then, in the 3rd generation, swap out the glass for a 4K Retina TV that still comes in at similar prices to your first generation model.
> Eighteen months later, as Moore’s Law dictates, the
> computer is obsolete but the screen is just fine.
That is a myth. Average lifespan of a set-top box today is 10 years. Average lifespan of glass is 5 years. People buy 2 TV’s for every set-top box. I know it goes against the instincts of a computer person, but that is how it works.
So a TV set with built-in computer hardware that can last half as long as today’s average set-top would be just fine, because that makes both glass and computer get replaced every 5 years.
Further, the integration of the computer and display not only makes the device cheaper and easier to set-up, it also makes the picture much much much higher quality. One great reason to buy an iMac instead of a desktop PC with tower and monitor is that the iMac screen is already calibrated and color managed, it is showing you the exact right color on every pixel. That is absolutely not true when you match a generic display with generic computer. Many people with $10,000 TV setups have terrible color, absolutely awful color, and even blurriness and ghosting. Apple can solve all of those problems because they don’t even exist if the glass has no video inputs. The content arrives from iTunes or somewhere else as an MP4 movie and it is rendered by the Apple TV set exactly as it is meant to be seen.
So I think it is very possible for Apple to ship a $499 TV set that is better in every way than any other $499 TV set.
Sony is trying to build a 4K era that looks like the old generic TV era. About half of the cost and complexity comes in putting on the inputs and outputs and letting the user wire stuff up so that they get a terrible picture. Apple can build a 4K era that looks like iTunes on an iMac. You do all the configuring and customization onscreen.
There were enduring Apple PDA fantasies for years before iPhone, and enduring Apple tablet fantasies for years before iPad. I think we are in the same place. We can see the need for one (going back in time 20 years when we enter the living room) but we are still holding on to some of our assumptions (PDA means a stylus, tablet means Mac OS or Windows) that we have to let go of with TV after we see the actual Apple TV set. I predict that nerds will go crazy that there are no audio video inputs of any kind, but that will make it so much cheaper and so much easier to use and so much higher quality that even a $499 TV set could be a luxury model and have by far the best picture quality of any TV set ever shipped.
The bar is low in TV. It’s so much lower than we think. Same as with smartphones and tablets, in retrospect. Yes, a $329 iPad mini is a better tablet PC than a $1299 Wintel model. Yes, a $499 Apple TV set could have a better picture and be more-desirable than a $2000 model that we are imagining that Apple might make.
We’re likely not to see any major player “fix” TV unless they make deals directly with studios themselves.
@ Hamranhansenhansen: Interesting perspective, thanks. I only disagree on Moore’s Law not applying to set-top boxes. My view is they don’t make ptorgress because carriers have captive customers, a monopoly and the ensuing lack of incentive to improve.
I sure hope you’re right and Apple makes great all-in-one TV.
I just want to watch HGTV and FoodTV without paying Comcast $100/month.
Apple will make an iTV, but it won’t look anything like a traditional TV, because it will be a subscription based app.
.
Apple needs $20-$50 subscriptions from every one that buys a phone or a tablet to keep up its growth. iUsers get unlimited streaming in return. All this needs is the blessing from the content owners.
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This app was supposed to launch with the new iPad, but was delayed due to content owner shenanigans. Why else would YouTube be pulled with no other iApp taking its place?
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Now Apple has to call the content provider bluff and create original content on its own like Amazon, Netflix and Google..
I’ve seen the future AppleTV. It’s my iPad.
Attacking the distributors (comcast etc) is absurd – just go round them. Sports is the wedge. Make it easy for a club (Man U or the Jets or PSG) to charge for a match and they’ll do it – and an Apple TV app is easy. There will still be non-Apple TV websites but with Apple you get a proven billing model and appear in their comprehensive discovery EPG. Other tv content (drama, comedy etc) will come later.
>>>If you have the opportunity, treat yourself to a 4K TV demo at a Sony Store. The spectacle is stunning:
The same thing was said of HDTV. I still have an SD CRT TV. Why? Because it’s still ALL TV. And what’s going to happen to all the programming that can’t make the jump to 4K TV? Paramount has been scrambling to make Star Trek: The Next Generation Blu-Ray friendly. Now they’ll have to make it 4K-friendly? Not everything made the jump from VHS to DVD. So now we’ll shed even more going from HD to 2xHD?
And JLG, if you think my question is academic, see this:
With 35mm Film Dead, Will Classic Movies Ever Look the Same Again?
http://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2012/11/with-35mm-film-dead-will-classic-movies-ever-look-the-same-again/265184/
So much for all the IP wars over Copyright. They’re not even maintaining their own IP!
Did you happen to see a living room wth a TV running with all people having their iPod or iPad on their hands looking at their screen? The TV becomes an accessory in this situation. Do you know that teens are going on the computer (or their tablets) more and more to listen to contents (YouTube, Vimeo, etc.). By the time Apple figures this out and Cable Companies just start to see their audiance has left the building, teens will be adults and have children and may not even buy TV sets when to set themselves in their brand new house. TV has ween know it is pretty much a walking dead horse…
That looks like its gonna be good dude.
http://www.GotzAnon.tk
@ Hamranhansenhansen: very good indeed, I think TV is stabilizing on HD,1920p and 2D, which is quite cheap to produce now. 4D is a far away dream because of the bandwidth issues and 3D has shown its limits. So a standard display should be fine for a few years. And again, I remember back in 2006 there was a design contest for what an Apple phone would be like, and all applicants made it with a keyboard. So an Apple TV could well go beyond the limits of what makes us feel it wouldn’t be relevant.
I can’t see the argument for Apple building the glass, agree with the idea of an add on box. Apple makes products which sell in the tens to hundreds of millions, I can’t see that if they stick to glass. Besides, it’s not the glass part of TV that needs enhancing. 3D has proven to be less than exciting for the most part. We hear now that Panasonic is leaving the TV business and LG and Sony are straining to remain profitable. The likely Apple premium for the glass just doesn’t make sense to me even if Jony Ive could make a fashionable looking screen.
The real question in my opinion is what needs to be disrupted that will allow Apple to have a viable product selling in the 10s of millions around the globe. Tim Cook said sitting down to watch TV is like going back in time 20 years. Leaving aside the content that implies the user interface.
Google has been trying to integrate web video with TV in a single searchable interface and even with Google’s mastery of search there hasn’t been much interest outside of their loyal fan base. From Apple’s point of view Google’s approach is too complex and unwieldy. I was surprised to see that Apple will be adding Bluetooth to AppleTV presumably to allow keyboard access. My surprise is because this is the route that Google has gone down. I can’t really see nice middle class homes with Bluetooth keyboards lying around the parlour.
Horace Deidu thinks that the appification of the TV is the way forward, google has tried this too with limited success. Horace couples this idea with an interesting content revolution.
We’ve all heard about the scads of unemployed actors and writers in Hollywood who work as bartenders, waitresses and other non-industry jobs. In my own field of photography I know that for every sucessful artist working in photography there are scads more who don’t make it big simply because they lack opportunity or the set of socialising skills needed to promote oneself BUT who are very talented.
Additionally there have been real breakthroughs, disruptive ones, in making videos. Formerly one needed specialised camera equipment costing tens if not hundreds of thousands of dollars. Today a high end dslr costing under $5k can do the job
Horace’s idea is that this spare talent coupled with the disruptive cameras and appification could open up the content arena to bypass, and yes disrupt, the traditional content making studios and their overly restrictive distribution networks. I think he’s on to something here.
For example Sundance film festival is now working on a distribution system for its award winning films and Vimeo has been pursuing this road of skilled independent video makers for awhile. I’m troubled that Apple keeps pursuing studios and traditional distributors. Google has been trying to get homegrown quality content through special funding via YouTube which seems more promising but not much has come of it yet. Apple has increased it’s connectedness with Vimeo in iOS.
I live in the UK where the BBC has done dramatically good work taking all its online content (5 or 6 TV stations and as many radio stations) and making it available via an app called iPlayer which is easy to use and allows 7days of play on demand of almost all their programming. Using the iPad app and AirPlay I’m able to watch “the Beeb” as wanted. I’ll add that one can download the HD versions of BBC iPlayer material for watching up to a week.
Now Sky (the biggest private UK provider with premium films, sport and HBO programmes) has announced a new offering using apps for on demand pay as you go pricing for their content.
The glass part of TV is not where the great disruption will be, it will be in how we access and pay for entertainment (and TV is just a moniker, we have to remember that hifi will also be involved.
I think that the iPad and a small add on box or even a “smart cable” coupled with a smartphone or tablet device will be the disruptive breakthrough and essentially were waiting on the content. The app universe already potentially exists on our iOS devices. Perhaps a smart remote may be in our future.
Not that apple tv thing again..
here’s the thing.. Apple can’t make tv better because basic tv sucks.
I’m in a major broadcast tv market.
What are my choices. Never ending stream of cop shows, a few doctor show, one sports(from time to time) oh and show’s that make me want to throw things at the tv. like America can’t sing and America can’t dance.
oh and crappy a Simpson clones.
I have cable to.. well U-verse… and well unless I want to pay a lot of $$$ I get basic cable most of which is unwatchable.
So I spend most of my time… Making my own channels.. Searching for streaming sites, making use of youtube, hulu, vemo and the like… downloading torrents. Oh ya and Netflix streaming, which seems to only have movies and tv show’s I don’t want to watch.
in tv content is king.. so really the killer app in tv is a single app that makes what is a manual process of finding shows and automatic one.
Apple magical tv will be nothing more than Itunes stuck on a tv..
Not it will be nothing more than another vending machine in your living room.
I think we can see the some hints of the future possible apple TV model right here already.
I do not think apple would release a pretty standard “bigger cinema display” with apple TV inside. I do think apple is working on something, but waiting for the negotiations to make it happen. just as iTunes store made the iPod, apple needs to make the service right. it’s not about the hardware, how much does it cost or how big it is. this could mean months, but also years. apple TV is here to have the foot in the doors to make it happen sooner than later.
what do I think on the hardware side, I believe we are too constrained with the standard tv model. I do not think the future apple tv service will be constrained to a certain hardware. I believe the key is the ‘air play’. since 2012, basically all the apple portable products support air play. it’s still a de facto beta, as it does not work very well, but by the 2014, we will have a smooth 1080p experience. that means the service will not be constrained to a certain hardware that people buy every 5 years. apple might release an air-play supported “big cinema display”, but only as a supplementary device. the service will be an app, just like iBook store, Newsstand or iTunes, with programs a la carte. movies and tv shows available on iTunes store. But apple has to make them substantially cheaper, to make this ecosystem compete with cable companies. Big problem nowadays is that if you actually buy/rent all the movies and shows, the bill is easily $100, much more than HBO and cable. Possibly, there could be a subscription model, where you get f.i. 10 programs, 20 movies and 20 shows for $XX a month.
the service will not be hardware constrained. you can watch it on your ipad, iphone or macbook and then stream it to your air-play supported TV. the air play even could be a licensed standard. what makes this so convenient is it resolves all the problems with the remote. the remote is no longer an issue. and it even more enhances the value of iOS and OSX devices.
what really revolutionises the TV industry is actually killing the TV. the TV as the standalone hardware/content device. there is no need in 2014 to make the content tied to the hardware. the TV of the future is only a bigger display, the content is a software app that can be visualised anywhere and brought anywhere. the service is not connected to a place or a machine, but the user and his/her apple ID
that is the future of the TV. and that is what apple should do. an app.
@ Jean-Louis Gassée – You need to consider profit which is a function of both revenue and margin. I think Apple’s revenue growth will slow substantially. The annual rates since the iPhone came out in 2007 have been around 50%, + or -. But the last 2 quarters have been the slowest since the iPhone came out (ignoring the financial crisis).
Apple sold a huge number of 4S’s. This creates a high bar for the 5 to surpass. Furthermore, those 4S buyers got 2 year contracts which prevent them from buying the 5 at a reasonable price. The buyers of the 5 likewise won’t participate in whatever model comes next because of their own 2 year deals.
Carriers are pushing Android because Apple’s price to the carriers in too high. Verizon makes more profit selling a Samsung than and Apple. Knowledgable consumers will ask for an iPhone, but most people buying a “smartphone” end up with an Android.
I think revenue will grow in the teens going forward because they are off such a big base and also structural issues like the 2 above. If Apple grows much faster than I expect – for example due to a China Mobile deal – it will be at a much much lower margin. So profit is going to grow much slower than in the past. There are many plausible scenarios where margins have to come down. There are few where they stay or go up.
History is littered with “freakish” high growth companies whose growth slows dramatically. People think they are being conservative by cutting historical growth in half (say, from 50% to 26% in your case). But there is nothing conservative about 26% growth off a $156B base. And remember the margins will come down.
How would 5 million apple TVs be $500 million in revenue…..they would be selling them for $100?
I think the argument against Apple making/selling integrated smart-HDTVs falls apart in light of the iMac, as it’s the exact same argument – why doesn’t Apple just make Mac minis and Pros? The iMac is the best-selling desktop computer. Meanwhile, Apple also deems it worthwhile to make (premium Cinema) displays.
What I find curious is that given HDTVs are commoditized, the premium players (Pioneer and now Panasonic) have been consistently driven out of the market, because they just can’t make money. But Apple can move right into that premium HDTV space and make their money through content and services. Boom.
Meanwhile, I’m just waiting for my AppleTV to get the great Amazon video app that’s been available on the iPad (and PS3, btw) for months now.
Why bother? Because it’s another opportunity to buy more apps, and subscription-based apps at that!
You CAN buy your own set top box. Your cable company is even required to give you a CableCARD if you do, per the 1996 Telecommunications Act. They obviously don’t promote this fact, and most consumers are unaware – I only found out because a friend of mine bought his Tivo and doesn’t pay the monthly equipment rental, and raves about how much better the user experience is.
Anyway, I agree that the mythical Apple TV will be a set top box. For those arguing that Apple can make the “glass,” sure, but that means consumers replacing their sets at least every 5 years for it to be a sustainable business – something they don’t currently do – AND Apple ensuring overlapping backward compatibility for five years… That’s a lot to ask.
And for those arguing that there’s nothing worth watching on TV, you don’t really need that many hours of compelling content per week to make owning a television and hypothetical Apple TV worthwhile. If you’re into sports, that’s probably 8 to as many as 30 hours (October!) of attractive live content per week. Throw in on-demand first run movies and the smattering of critically praised shows – Mad Men, Boardwalk Empire, Breaking Bad, Game of Thrones, Homeland – and you have plenty. I don’t subscribe to cable, but between Netflix, Amazon VOD and OTA broadcasts of the NFL, I still get a good 15 to 25 hours of screen time in most weeks.
Anyway, the thing to keep an eye on is whether independent productions NOT originating with traditional cable/broadcast companies, like Netflix’s Lillyhammer, Arrested Development and House of Cards deals, spread to Amazon, Roku, Cinemanow and others, wedging the issue without dependency on the incumbents. Compelling content will draw audiences. Compelling content designed and produced from day one for streaming economics may change the whole game.
I think michal janak is on the right track. As Mr Janak notes, the TV “problem” is two part: technology and content. Airplay can solve the technology problem pretty elegantly. And an awful lot of people would be happy to swap a $100/mnth cable bill with a tailored set of channels/movies for 1/4-1/2 that amount. Apple’s model for sustained profitability is to combine sw/content/hw in an easy-to-use package. They have to come out with something with all the pieces in place, like itunes/ipod or iphone/app store. I can imagine the Apple tv being a jonny ive, drool-worthy piece of glass, combined with an ios device. I can also imagine a (current) appleTV-like device that, once plugged in, you NEVER use input ONE (and that’s important). Then provide the content in an al-la-carte fashion (assuming they can make the deals), possibly through iTunes, with a recurring bill on a monthly or yearly basis. And all that talk about voice control and Siri, well that’s fluff, when it comes right down to it. It’s a nice to have, but not a need to have.
I have two flat screen TVs. My family has a couple of iMacs, a MacBook, a number of iPads, and two iPhones. What I need is a box that connects my computing devices (all the iDevices) to my TVs, *and* easy access to the content I want to watch. That’s what I want. That’s what my kids want. The current Apple TV box is a good start, but it needs to be more robust and more seamless. Note that I do not need to access content using the TV, I just need to consume the content on the TV, because it is the largest screen in my house.
Space Gorilla, exactly right. And again, that’s why I think michal janak is on the right track with an airplay-enabled experience. Sure, you might have to buy two or three AppleTV boxes for all the sets in your house. But you’ll only need one ios device–itouch, iphone, ipad–to controll all of them. BTW, just to clarify my earlier post, I do not think an enhanced AppleTV box and an actual jonny ive drool-worthy glass are mutually exclusive. I see no reason why apple would want to dismiss the huge market in non-apple tvs already in people’s homes. A couple years down the line, I can image walking into an Apple store and seeing maybe 2 Jonny Ive designed fully integrated TV sets (eg 47″ and 60″), and also finding the enhanced Apple TV box, each sold with an optional ios device (since many customers will already have an ios device). Once turned on, the device will self-configure, download necessary apps, put up a content-selection window, show you the monthly bill and wait for you to click OK.
Like iPhone is only 10% phone, (besides Internet browser, music player, and everything else apps bring) , iTV will only be 10% TV, it will be a truly home computer, managing security system, lights (Philips Hue), family notice board and calendar, sound control system throughout the house with AirPlay , door answer phone and Dropbox access, thermostat (Nest), and in future controlling linked electrical equipment. Interaction via Siri, idevice. Of course you can watch TV, iTV will record 1 month worth of say 20 channels in parallel, and adjust the program’s to record based on viewing habits, so de facto every program available in last months is directly available straight from a listing on TV by program type, adjusted to person in room on recognition. Besides this usual streaming via current type Apple TV. Of course FaceTime HD with whole family in living room. Of course ARM chips so device can be on all day at minimal electricity use…
Perhaps small version with touch screen for in the kitchen at breakfast table and a large one in the living room….
When, I think sooner than you think, these hints from Tim are to try and get people to postpone purchase of new TVs, until his TV comes out as people do not want to replace a working TV, as you cannot put the old one in a drawer. (Wonder why Philips Hue came out with huge success and suddenly next batch is not available till March) note that Philips had emphasis on simple user interfaces when Apple was still making Apple II’s hence there is a fit….
Wow, what a waste of money on the Mac run Menu Display boards. I could build a basic PC about the same size, if not smaller for about $100 each that would display pictures. I’m surprized the author of this article found that interesting. It’s more stupid than anything.
4K is NOT four times the resolution of 1080P. “4L” refers to horizontal resolution, not vertical resolution. 1080P is the vertical measurement of current HDTV. 1080P’s horizontal resolution is 1920 – mere pixels away from 2K, making 4K approximately twice the resolution of todays current HDTV.
I own an LG “Smart TV.” If it was as good as the Apple TV hooked up to it, Apple would be in trouble and LG would be selling a lot more of them. The reason why the functionality needs to be integrated into the TV is you are otherwise stuck with two remotes and a bad user experience.
Instead, LG has too slow of a processor, not enough memory, insufficient applications, and treats it as an enhanced advertising platform. They lack the vision to really make it work, but it is good enough for a small slice of people.
I can’t imagine how Apple will add value to a whole TV set, but I believe they must have some ideas. When it would arrive… well, I won’t hold my breath as I don’t have a TV that requires replacing within the next two years.
Lots of interesting comments, but I haven’t seen anyone address the issue of audio in the context of a future TV by Apple (either glass or Apple TV set-top box type). Watching TV or movies or sports isn’t just about the picture, it’s also about the sound, And many people are getting that sound today with home theater systems – AV receivers and multiple speakers hooked up to their TVs. Anyone have any comments on how audio would be integrated into a future TV by Apple?
It’s not so much the technology, but the content that concerns me. I don’t want to watch old re-runs or movies – I want to watch the latest stuff. Unfortunately (in the UK at least), Sky has the monopoly on anything new that comes out of the US. As much as I’d love to pay £6/month for services like Netflix or BT Vision, there’s just nothing on there that I want to watch. Instead I end up paying £60/mth to Sky so I can watch the latest shows.
What is the point! The content will still be 20 to 30 years old
What I think Apple will do with “TV” :
1) Content will be delivered via Apps.
2. Consumption will happen via an Apple TV _appliance_.
I have long believed that Apple will replace the Apple TV with an Apple TV-like appliance. It will _not_ have an integrated display. Think a Mac for your _home_, not for just for you (like your iMac or MacBook Air). Think of the coming “Internet of things”, and why your Mac/PC isn’t going to work well as a center for these devices…including your TV experience.
Apple TV’s current UI telegraphs what we will see by way of content: studio-centric apps. We haven’t seen Apple TV evolve dramatically because major content creators themselves are the roadblock. They’ve found themselves in a bad place in time and technology: stuck between delivering their content via the proven cable subscription model _and_ delivering it via the Internet…which some do, sort of. Problem is, they can not give up cable subscription delivery for obvious reasons, and they can’t go all Web delivery, either. Not yet. Conventional content “owners” will wait until a certain tipping point occurs and then they will migrate to app-based delivery. (Sooner than later, if Netflix’s content _creation_ experiment is successful.) Apple has had its doors open…waiting for the content creators to accept the inevitable. Android will welcome this app model as well.
The Apple TV itself will evolve into an Apple TV appliance. It will not include a panel. What size panels will Apple offer? At what level of quality? For example, a consumer can buy a 40-inch panel ranging from $350 to $3500. The size and quality variations are simply too vast in this category – and justified – for Apple to address the panel side of the market with the simplicity Apple’s known for. To say nothing about the logistics: Apple doing in-home HDTV delivery and service? Unseemly, IMHO. And that’s just in the States. Apple does everything on a global level now.
From an more simplistic perspective, there seems to be an enormous gap between a 27″ 1440p Cinema Display ($1000) and an 84″ 2160p Sony 4K TV ($25,000). From three feet away, the Cinema Display is “720p” Retina display; the 4K television would be Retina from, what, twenty or thirty feet? A 27″ screen is still too small for a TV replacement for most people, and 720p HiDPI is kind of cramped for Mac OS X. A 40″ 4K Cinema Display (or iMac) would bridge both worlds; Apple could probably sell one for, what, $1500? ($2500 for an iMac?)
It’s just… is a 40″ iMac the sort of thing Apple would do? I mean, how many people buy 27″ iMacs in the first place? Most people just buy MacBooks. A TV with a mouse and keyboard seems to be exactly the sort of thing Apple would not do. And once you replace the iMac internals with a glorified hockey-puck Apple TV, you run into the above-mentioned problems of Moore’s Law and no 4K video content.
This is a topic which is close to my heart.
.. Many thanks! Exactly where are your contact details though?
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