Released: February 12, 2013

Short-term electricity supply, demand, and price projections.

Released: February 12, 2013

Short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections through 2013 for U.S. and International oil forecasts

Released: August 2, 2012

This report presents the major assumptions of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) used to generate the projections in the Annual Energy Outlook 2012, including general features of the model structure, assumptions concerning energy markets, and the key input data and parameters that are the most significant in formulating the model results.

Released: June 25, 2012

The AEO Supplemental tables were generated for the reference case of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) using the National Energy Modeling System, a computer-based model which produces annual projections of energy markets. Most of the tables were not published in the AEO, but contain regional and other more detailed projections underlying the AEO projections.

Released: November 30, 2011

This report addresses an August 2011 request to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) from Senator Jeff Bingaman, Chairman of the U.S. Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, for an analysis of the impacts of a Clean Energy Standard (CES).

Released: October 25, 2011

This report responds to a request from Chairman Ralph M. Hall for an analysis of the impacts of a Clean Energy Standard (CES). The request, as outlined in the letter included in Appendix A, sets out specific assumptions and scenarios for the study.

Released: September 19, 2011

This report presents international energy projections through 2035, prepared by the Energy Information Administration, including outlooks for major energy fuels and associated carbon dioxide emissions. (archived versions)

Released: September 19, 2011

International electricity projections through 2035

Released: April 26, 2011

Electricity projections to 2035.

Released: December 7, 2010

Presented by: Howard Gruenspecht, Deputy Administrator, to: Bipartisan Policy Center, Workshop on Reliability Impacts of Power Sector Developments; Washington, DC

Released: November 18, 2010

This paper provides information on the cost of building new electricity power plants. These cost estimates are critical inputs in the development of energy projections and analyses.

Released: May 12, 2009

This supplement to the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) May 2009 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) focuses on changes in the utilization of coal- and natural-gas-fired generation capacity in the electric utility sector as the differential between delivered fuel prices narrows.

Released: April 27, 2009

This report responds to requests from Chairman Edward Markey, for an analysis of a 25-percent Federal renewable electricity standard (RES). The RES proposal analyzed in this report is included in the discussion draft of broader legislation, the American Clean Energy and Security Act (ACESA) of 2009, issued on the Energy and Commerce Committee website at the end of March 2009.

Released: March 31, 2009

Construction costs for new power plants have increased at an extraordinary rate over the past several years. One study, published in mid-2008, reported that construction costs had more than doubled since 2000, with most of the increase occurring since 2005. Construction costs have increased for plants of all types, including coal, nuclear, natural gas, and wind.

Released: March 31, 2009

PHEVs have gained significant attention in recent years, as concerns about energy, environmental, and economic securityincluding rising gasoline prices have prompted efforts to improve vehicle fuel economy and reduce petroleum consumption in the transportation sector. PHEVs are particularly well suited to meet these objectives, because they have the potential to reduce petroleum consumption both through fuel economy gains and by substituting electric power for gasoline use.

Released: March 31, 2009

Tax incentives have been an important factor in the growth of renewable generation over the past decade, and they could continue to be important in the future. The Energy Tax Act of 1978 (Public Law 95-618) established ITCs for wind, and EPACT92 established the Renewable Electricity Production Credit (more commonly called the PTC) as an incentive to promote certain kinds of renewable generation beyond wind on the basis of production levels. Specifically, the PTC provided an inflation-adjusted tax credit of 1.5 cents per kilowatthour for generation sold from qualifying facilities during the first 10 years of operation. The credit was available initially to wind plants and facilities that used closed-loop biomass fuels [75] and were placed in service after passage of the Act and before June 1999.

Released: March 13, 2009

Concerns about potential climate change driven by rising atmospheric concentrations of GHGs have grown over the past two decades, both domestically and abroad. In the United States, potential policies to limit or reduce GHG emissions are in various stages of development at the State, regional, and Federal levels. In addition to ongoing uncertainty with respect to future growth in energy demand and the costs of fuel, labor, and new plant construction, U.S. electric power companies must consider the effects of potential policy changes to limit or reduce GHG emissions that would significantly alter their planning and operating decisions. The possibility of such changes may already be affecting planning decisions for new generating capacity.

Released: September 24, 2008

Currently, distributed generation provides a very small share of residential and commercial electricity requirements in the United States. The AEO2005 reference case projects a significant increase in electricity generation in the buildings sector, but distributed generation is expected to remain a small contributor to the sectors energy needs. Although the advent of higher energy prices or more rapid improvement in technology could increase the use of distributed generation relative to the reference case projection, the vast majority of electricity used in buildings is projected to continue to be purchased from the grid.

Released: September 24, 2008

From the late 1970s through 2002, steel, cement, and concrete prices followed a general downward trend. Since then, however, iron and steel prices have increased by 8 percent in 2003, 10 percent in 2004, and 31 percent in 2005. Although iron and steel prices declined in 2006, early data for 2007 show another increase. Cement and concrete prices, as well as the composite cost index for all construction commodities, have shown similar trends but with smaller increases in 2004 and 2005.

Released: June 26, 2008

Development of U.S. energy resources and the permitting and construction of large energy facilities have become increasingly difficult over the past 20 years, and they could become even more difficult in the future. Growing public concern about global warming and CO2 emissions also casts doubt on future consumption of fossil fuelsparticularly coal, which releases the largest amount of CO2 per unit of energy produced. Even without regulations to limit greenhouse gas emissions in the United States, the investment community may already be limiting the future use of some energy options. In addition, there is considerable uncertainty about the future availability of, and access to, both domestic and foreign natural gas resources.

Released: March 11, 2007

The loan guarantee program authorized in Title XVII of EPACT2005 is not included in AEO2007, because the Federal Credit Reform Act of 1990 requires congressional authorization of loan guarantees in an appropriations act before a Federal agency can make a binding loan guarantee agreement. As of October 2006, Congress had not provided the legislation necessary for DOE to implement the loan guarantee program (see Legislation and Regulations). In August 2006, however, DOE invited firms to submit pre applications for the first $2 billion in potential loan guarantees.

Released: March 11, 2007

The push by some States to restructure electricity markets progressed rapidly throughout the late 1990s. Although the energy crisis in California during 2000 and 2001 slowed the momentum, 19 States and the District of Columbia currently have some form of restructuring in place. In addition, Washington State, which has not restructured its electricity market, allows its largest industrial customers to choose their suppliers.

Released: February 22, 2007

Costs related to the construction industry have been volatile in recent years. Some of the volatility may be related to higher energy prices. Prices for iron and steel, cement, and concretecommodities used heavily in the construction of new energy projects rose sharply from 2004 to 2006, and shortages have been reported. How such price fluctuations may affect the cost or pace of new development in the energy industries is not known with any certainty, and short-term changes in commodity prices are not accounted for in the 25-year projections in AEO2007. Most projects in the energy industries require long planning and construction lead times, which can lessen the impacts of short-term trends.

Released: February 1, 2007

This analysis responds to a request from Senator Coleman that the Energy Information Administration (EIA) analyze a proposed clean energy portfolio standard (CEPS).

Released: June 30, 2006

This analysis responds to a request from Senator Norm Coleman that the Energy Information Administration (EIA) analyze a proposed clean energy resources policy.

Released: February 1, 2006

A key issue in mid-term forecasting is the representation of changing and developing technologies. How existing technologies will evolve, and what new technologies might emerge, cannot be known with certainty. The issue is of particular importance in AEO2006, the first AEO with projections out to 2030.

Released: April 1, 2005

In the residential and commercial sectors, heating and cooling account for more than 40 percent of end-use energy demand. As a result, energy consumption in those sectors can vary significantly from year to year, depending on yearly average temperatures.

Released: April 1, 2005

In the late 1970s and early 1980s, environmental and energy security concerns were addressed at the Federal level by several key pieces of energy legislation. Among them, the Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act of 1978 (PURPA), P.L. 95-617, required regulated power utilities to purchase alternative electricity generation from qualified generating facilities, including small-scale renewable generators; and the Investment Tax Credit (ITC), P.L. 95-618, part of the Energy Tax Act of 1978, provided a 10-percent Federal tax credit on new investment in capital-intensive wind and solar generation technologies.

Released: January 1, 2005

This analysis responds to a September 14, 2004, request from Chairmen James M. Inhofe and George V. Voinovich asking the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to analyze the impacts of different approaches for removing mercury from coal-fired power plants.

Released: July 1, 2004

This report was assembled by EIA from a number of sources and in a series of steps, beginning with a review of State RPS and other program summaries available on web sites, followed by a review of State laws and regulations, and then further clarified by direct contact with State public utility commissions, electric utilities, and others.

Released: May 1, 2004

Senator James M. Inhofe requested that the Energy Information Administration (EIA) undertake analysis of S.843, the Clean Air Planning Act of 2003, introduced by Senator Thomas Carper; S.366, the Clean Power Act of 2003, introduced by Senator James Jeffords; and S.1844, the Clear Skies Act of 2003, introduced by Senator James M. Inhofe. The EIA received this request on March 19, 2004. This Service Report responds to his request.

Released: May 1, 2004

On May 11, 2004, Senator Landrieu asked EIA to evaluate SA.2028. This paper responds to that request, relying on the modeling methodology, data sources, and assumptions used to analyze the original bill, as extensively documented in EIA's June 2003 report.

Released: September 15, 2003

Presented by: Guy F. Caruso, EIA Administrator Presented to: National Association of State Energy Officials Austin, Texas September 15 , 2003

Released: September 1, 2003

This study responds to a July 31, 2003 request from Senator Byron L. Dorgan. The study is based primarily on analyses EIA has previously done for studies requested by Congress. It includes analysis of the Renewable Portfolio Standard, Renewable Fuels Standard, production in the Alaskan National Wildlife Refuge, the construction of an Alaskan Natural Gas pipeline, and various tax provisions.

Released: September 1, 2003

On July 30, 2003, Senator James M. Inhofe requested the Energy Information Administration to undertake analyses of S.843, The Clean Air Planning Act of 2003, introduced by Senator Thomas Carper, and S.485, Clear Skies Act of 2003. Senator Inhofe also asked the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to analyze S. 485 without the mercury provisions and S. 843 without the mercury and carbon dioxide provisions. This service report responds to both requests.

Released: June 30, 2003

On June 10, 2003, Senator Pete Domenici, Chairman of the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, requested additional analysis of a Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS), expected to be proposed as an amendment to energy legislation currently pending before the U.S. Senate.1 This request asked the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to provide additional results from two previously released EIA analyses2 of the proposed legislation, and to conduct further analyses with modified assumptions.

Released: June 1, 2003

On January 9, 2003, Senators John McCain and Joseph I. Lieberman introduced Senate Bill 139 (S.139), the Climate Stewardship Act of 2003, in the U.S. Senate. S.139 would require the Administrator of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to promulgate regulations to limit greenhouse gas emissions. On January 28, 2003, Senator James M. Inhofe requested that the Energy Information Administration (EIA) perform a comprehensive analysis of S.139. On April 2, 2003, Senators McCain and Lieberman, cosponsors of S.139, made a further request for analyses of their bill. This Service Report responds to both requests.

Released: June 1, 2003

On May 8, 2003, Senator Jeff Bingaman, the Ranking Minority Member of the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, requested an analysis of a nationwide Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) program proposed to be amended to energy legislation currently pending before the U.S. Senate1. With his request Sen. Bingaman provided specific information on the program to be analyzed. This analysis was prepared in response to his request and projects the impact of the proposed program on energy supply, demand, prices, and emissions. The analysis is based on the Annual Energy Outlook 2003 (AEO2003) projections of energy supply, demand, and prices through 2025, as updated in May 2003.

Released: May 1, 2003

On May 8, 2003, Senator Jeff Bingaman, the Ranking Minority Member of the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, requested an analysis of a nationwide Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) program proposed to be amended to energy legislation currently pending before the U.S. Senate1. With his request Sen. Bingaman provided specific information on the program to be analyzed. This analysis was prepared in response to his request and projects the impact of the proposed program on energy supply, demand, prices, and emissions. The analysis is based on the Annual Energy Outlook 2003 (AEO2003) projections of energy supply, demand, and prices through 2025, as updated in May 2003.

Released: July 1, 2002

This paper examines issues affecting the uses of biomass for electricity generation. The methodology used in the National Energy Modeling System to account for various types of biomass is discussed, and the underlying assumptions are explained.

Released: April 1, 2002

Presentation on EIA's projections of energy markets with particular focus on distributed generation.

Released: March 1, 2002

This report deals primarily with the Research and Development provisions of S. 1766, organized across four areas: energy efficiency, renewable energy, fossil energy, and nuclear energy. The provisions are assessed using the results from AEO2002 and other side cases, rather than a direct quantitative analysis.

Released: February 13, 2002

Statement of Mary J. Hutzler, Acting Administrator; Energy Information Administration; Department Of Energy Before The Subcommittee on Energy and Air Quality; Committee on Energy and Commerce United States House of Representatives Hearing on the Effect of the Enron Bankruptcy on the Functioning of Energy Markets February 13, 2002

Released: October 1, 2001

This analysis responds to a request from Senators Bob Smith, George Voinovich, and Sam Brownback to examine the costs of specific multi-emission reduction strategies

Released: October 1, 2001

This analysis responds to a request of Senators James M. Jeffords and Joseph I. Lieberman. This report describes the impacts of technology improvements and other market-based opportunities on the costs of emissions reductions from electricity generators, including nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide, mercury, and carbon dioxide.

Released: July 1, 2001

At the request of the Subcommittee, EIA prepared an initial report that focused on the impacts of reducing power sector NOx, SO2, andCO2 emissions.2 The current report extends the earlier analysis to add the impacts of reducing power sector Hg emissions and introducing RPS requirements.

Released: July 1, 2001

This chapter discusses the projected impacts of new emission caps on nitrogen oxides (Nox), Sulfur dioxide (SO2), carbon dioxide (CO2), and mercury (Hg) and the adoption of a renewable portfolio standard (RPS) on the U.S. markets for those fuels, including industry employment levels

Released: July 1, 2001

This report responds to a request received from Senator David McIntosh on June 29, 2000 to analyze the impacts on energy consumers and producers of coordinated strategies to reduce emissions of sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and carbon dioxide at U.S. power plants.

Released: June 1, 2001

This report addresses the potential impact of rotating electrical outages on petroleum product and natural gas supply in California.

Released: May 1, 2001

In an earlier analysis completed in response to a request received from Representative David McIntosh, Chairman of the Subcommittee on National Economic Growth, Natural Resources, and Regulatory Affairs, the Energy Information Administration analyzed the impacts of power sector caps on nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide, and carbon dioxide emissions, assuming a policy instrument patterned after the sulfur dioxide allowance program created in the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990. This paper compares the results of that work with the results of an analysis that assumes the use of a dynamic generation performance standard as an instrument for reducing carbon dioxide emissions.

Released: March 21, 2001

Presented by: Mary J. Hutzler, Director, Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting Presented to: Senate Energy And Natural Resources Committee United States Senate March 21, 2001

Released: September 1, 1999

This report describes EIA's use of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) to evaluate the effects of the Administration's restructuring proposal using the parameter settings and assumptions from the Policy Office Electricity Modeling System (POEMS) analysis.

Released: August 5, 1999

Presented by: Jay E. Hakes, EIA Administrator Presented to: U.S. House of Representatives Washington, DC August 5, 1999

Released: September 1, 1996

Reviews the Final Environmental Impact Statement (FEIS) prepared by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission for its electricity transmission system open access prepared in April 1996 and uses the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) to analyze the open access rule (Orders 888 and 889).

Released: February 1, 1993

Provides an overview of current and long term forecasted uses of renewable resources in the Nation's electricity marketplace, the largest domestic application of renewable resources today.