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Panetta-Burns 'Outliers'

Panetta-Burns 'Outliers'

12. 7.2012
Nick Gourevitch warns, ignore the polling averages at your peril. Ethan Roeder defends the Obama campaign's use of political data. Ruy...
Voters Pry NRA's Influence Out of Its Hands

Voters Pry NRA's Influence Out of Its Hands

12. 3.2012
Candidates feeling cowed by NRA influence should fear no more. NRA spending this cycle was ineffective -- or at least insufficient.
Princes Of Polling 'Outliers'

Princes Of Polling 'Outliers'

11.30.2012
Lee Miringoff takes a well deserved victory lap and offers a thank you to Warren Mitofsky. Noam Scheiber reports the internal polling...
Government Goes After Prediction Markets and Research

Government Goes After Prediction Markets and Research

11.30.2012
Intrade goes to great lengths to transparently define the contracts in their markets for hosts of potential pitfalls: candidate deaths,...
An Early Look At 2014

An Early Look At 2014

Adam Carlson  11.29.2012
After Democratic Senate candidates gained two seats Nov. 6, despite pundits' speculation just one year earlier that the party would lose...
Geeks, Quants And Wonks 'Outliers'

Geeks, Quants And Wonks 'Outliers'

11.24.2012
Richard Thaler offers praise for geeks, quants and wonks. Matthew Dowd unpacks the mythic narrative of the 2012 elections. Ryan Enos...
How The Obama Campaign's Polls Got It Right

How The Obama Campaign's Polls Got It Right

Mark Blumenthal  11.21.2012
WASHINGTON -- Summing up the lessons learned from a massive investment in data and technology, Obama campaign manager Jim Messina has a...
Kool-Aid 'Outliers'

Kool-Aid 'Outliers'

11.16.2012
S.V. Dáte revisits predictions by pollsters who were "drinking that Republican Kool-Aid." Frank Newport says Gallup will review its likely...
How Sandy Almost Knocked Out The Exit Polls

How Sandy Almost Knocked Out The Exit Polls

Mark Blumenthal  11.14.2012
WASHINGTON -- Hurricane Sandy may have shaken up the final week of the 2012 presidential campaign, but few realize how close the storm...
Republicans' Woman Problem Transcends Race

Republicans' Woman Problem Transcends Race

11.13.2012
To claim the gender problem Republicans faced in 2012 is "merely" a race problem is the denial that has actually helped cement this pattern....
Women Voters Won! But Don't Think It's All About Abortion

Women Voters Won! But Don't Think It's All About Abortion

11.12.2012
As I thought might happen, Obama won Tuesday by winning women and losing men, which hasn't occurred since 1996. Obama had a 10-point gender...
50 Out Of 50 'Outliers'

50 Out Of 50 'Outliers'

11. 9.2012
Tuesday was a good night for the "quants," including Pollster, which called every state correctly in the presidential and senate contests...
Who's The Best Pollster? Not So Fast

Who's The Best Pollster? Not So Fast

Mark Blumenthal  11. 8.2012
WASHINGTON -- A day or two after an election, those who follow politics closely like to ask, "Who was the best pollster?" That's a great...
The Elephant in the Exit Poll Results: Most White Women Supported Romney

The Elephant in the Exit Poll Results: Most White Women Supported Romney

11. 8.2012
I think Nate Silver deserves a lot of credit for being one of the few "poll readers" willing to forecast a numeric probability of Obama's...
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