000
AXPZ20 KNHC 142207
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU FEB 14 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2115 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N82W TO LOW PRES NEAR
06N96.5W 1011 MB TO 07N113W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO
ITCZ...CONTINUING ON TO 05N127W TO 06N132W TO 06N140W. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG NOTED WITHIN 120 NM S OF TROUGH
BETWEEN 82W AND 88W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG NOTED WITHIN
300 NM N OF ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 124W AND 136W.

...DISCUSSION...
A MID TO UPPER CYCLONE JUST W OF THE AREA THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS
FINALLY FILLED WITHIN AN UPPER TROUGH...EXTENDING FROM 34N136W
TO 14N140W. A SHARPLY NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THIS PORTION SE TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 120W...WITH UPPER
DIVERGENCE JUST E OF THIS TROUGH AIDING IN MAINTAINING SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OCCURRING WITHIN A ZONE OF STRONG
TRADEWINDS FROM 07N TO 16N W OF 125W. A SECOND UPPER TROUGH IS
SINKING S INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA...ROUGHLY ALONG
33N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W. A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH DOMINATING N
AMERICA HAS ITS MEAN AXIS EXTENDING S ACROSS TEXAS AND E
PORTIONS OF OLD MEXICO FROM 32N100W TO 22N100W. TO THE S...AND
SEPARATING THESE UPPER TROUGHS...IS UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING N FROM
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE AT 13N115W TO A CREST AT 31N120W. ANOTHER
UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE TROPICS AT 13N96W WITH A TROPICAL
RIDGE EXTENDING W TO PREVIOUS ANTICYLONE...AND NE ACROSS MOST OF
THE CARIBBEAN.

AT THE LOW LEVELS...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 1037 MB HIGH ACROSS THE
NE PACIFIC THROUGH 32N131W TO 14N108W. NE TRADES ARE ENHANCED TO
20 TO 25 KT S OF THE RIDGE FROM 07N TO 16N W OF 125W...WITH A
RECENT 1854 UTC ASCAT PASS DEPICTING NE WINDS 25-30 KT FROM 07N
TO 10N BETWEEN 131W AND 138W...WHERE ALTIMETER PASSES VERIFY
SEAS OF 9 TO 13 FT IN MIXING NE AND NW SWELL. THIS ENHANCED AREA
OF TRADES WILL SHRINK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NORTHERLY
FLOW E OF THE SURFACE RIDGE HAS DIMINISHED THROUGH THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA BUT WILL RETURN THIS EVENING TO 20 TO 25 KT THROUGH
MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE GULF AND GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO N PORTIONS
THROUGH SAT.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE SW GULF OF MEXICO TODAY WILL SQUEEZE THROUGH THE
CHIVELA PASS AND BEGIN TO GENERATE PULSES OF FRESH TO STRONG N
WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC FROM AROUND SUNRISE FRI MORNING
THROUGH SAT EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO FRI NIGHT WILL STRENGTHEN THE GAP WINDS THROUGH
TEHUANTEPEC...WITH A MINIMAL GALE EXPECTED BY SUNRISE
SAT...STRENGTHENING TO A STRONG GALE SAT NIGHT...POSSIBLY
REACHING STORM STRENGTH...AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNRISE ON SUN.

$$
STRIPLING

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 142207
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU FEB 14 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2115 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N82W TO LOW PRES NEAR
06N96.5W 1011 MB TO 07N113W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO
ITCZ...CONTINUING ON TO 05N127W TO 06N132W TO 06N140W. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG NOTED WITHIN 120 NM S OF TROUGH
BETWEEN 82W AND 88W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG NOTED WITHIN
300 NM N OF ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 124W AND 136W.

...DISCUSSION...
A MID TO UPPER CYCLONE JUST W OF THE AREA THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS
FINALLY FILLED WITHIN AN UPPER TROUGH...EXTENDING FROM 34N136W
TO 14N140W. A SHARPLY NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THIS PORTION SE TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 120W...WITH UPPER
DIVERGENCE JUST E OF THIS TROUGH AIDING IN MAINTAINING SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OCCURRING WITHIN A ZONE OF STRONG
TRADEWINDS FROM 07N TO 16N W OF 125W. A SECOND UPPER TROUGH IS
SINKING S INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA...ROUGHLY ALONG
33N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W. A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH DOMINATING N
AMERICA HAS ITS MEAN AXIS EXTENDING S ACROSS TEXAS AND E
PORTIONS OF OLD MEXICO FROM 32N100W TO 22N100W. TO THE S...AND
SEPARATING THESE UPPER TROUGHS...IS UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING N FROM
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE AT 13N115W TO A CREST AT 31N120W. ANOTHER
UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE TROPICS AT 13N96W WITH A TROPICAL
RIDGE EXTENDING W TO PREVIOUS ANTICYLONE...AND NE ACROSS MOST OF
THE CARIBBEAN.

AT THE LOW LEVELS...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 1037 MB HIGH ACROSS THE
NE PACIFIC THROUGH 32N131W TO 14N108W. NE TRADES ARE ENHANCED TO
20 TO 25 KT S OF THE RIDGE FROM 07N TO 16N W OF 125W...WITH A
RECENT 1854 UTC ASCAT PASS DEPICTING NE WINDS 25-30 KT FROM 07N
TO 10N BETWEEN 131W AND 138W...WHERE ALTIMETER PASSES VERIFY
SEAS OF 9 TO 13 FT IN MIXING NE AND NW SWELL. THIS ENHANCED AREA
OF TRADES WILL SHRINK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NORTHERLY
FLOW E OF THE SURFACE RIDGE HAS DIMINISHED THROUGH THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA BUT WILL RETURN THIS EVENING TO 20 TO 25 KT THROUGH
MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE GULF AND GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO N PORTIONS
THROUGH SAT.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE SW GULF OF MEXICO TODAY WILL SQUEEZE THROUGH THE
CHIVELA PASS AND BEGIN TO GENERATE PULSES OF FRESH TO STRONG N
WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC FROM AROUND SUNRISE FRI MORNING
THROUGH SAT EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO FRI NIGHT WILL STRENGTHEN THE GAP WINDS THROUGH
TEHUANTEPEC...WITH A MINIMAL GALE EXPECTED BY SUNRISE
SAT...STRENGTHENING TO A STRONG GALE SAT NIGHT...POSSIBLY
REACHING STORM STRENGTH...AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNRISE ON SUN.

$$
STRIPLING

000
AXNT20 KNHC 141742
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU FEB 14 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC OVER SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W THEN ALONG 4N16W TO 4N21W
WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 2N72W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR
33W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN
8W-17W...FROM 5N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 18W-31W AND FROM 2N TO S
OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 30W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CONUS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAIN
STATES TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND OVER THE FAR NW ATLC
SUPPORTING A FRONT THAT AT 14/1500 UTC EXTENDS THROUGH THE W
ATLC BECOMING STATIONARY CONTINUING INTO THE GULF ACROSS S
FLORIDA FROM FORT LAUDERDALE THEN S OF NAPLES ALONG 25N84W
23N92W 21N95W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS RESULTING IN
MOSTLY SW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GULF WATERS. DENSE CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVERS THE
AREA N OF THE FRONT AND SE OF A LINE FROM THE ALABAMA/
MISSISSIPPI BORDER ALONG 27N92W TO TAMPICO MEXICO INCLUDING MOST
OF FLORIDA AND THE COAST OF ALABAMA. THIS IS LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE N GULF COAST UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE S OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE GULF.
STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON THEN SHIFTING SLIGHTLY TO THE E TONIGHT AND
STALLING FROM FLORIDA BAY TO THE CENTRAL YUCATAN FRI MORNING. A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE N GULF LATE FRI NIGHT
MERGING WITH THE OLD FRONT. THE NEW FRONT WILL RAPIDLY MOVE
THROUGH THE GULF PUSHING INTO THE CARIBBEAN BY SAT AFTERNOON.
RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE W GULF SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM
COLOMBIA THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE TO OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. ALTHOUGH A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...A STRONG
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC ARE PRODUCING FRESH TO
STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE
TO FRESH TRADES OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. PATCHES OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE N CARIBBEAN FROM 15N-18N
BETWEEN 64W-80W INCLUDING PUERTO RICO LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. THE TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL PERSIST THROUGH MON WHILE
THE REMAINDER WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRI...EXCEPT WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN BY TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TONIGHT WITH A
STRONGER FRONT MERGING WITH THE OLD FRONT AND PUSHING INTO THE
NW CARIBBEAN SAT. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE TO E HONDURAS SUN MORNING WHERE IT WILL STALL AND
DISSIPATE THROUGH MON. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD N OF THE
AREA LATE SUN INCREASING WINDS TO FRESH TO STRONG ACROSS THE
BASIN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CONUS AND THE FAR NW ATLC IS
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA AT
14/1500 UTC NEAR 32N67W EXTENDING TO 28N77W WHERE IT BECOMES
STATIONARY AND CROSSING FLORIDA NEAR FORT LAUDERDALE CONTINUING
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. DENSE CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVERS THE AREA WITHIN 200/225
NM NW OF THE FRONT. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN
EXTENDS THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE TO BEYOND 32N53W. A SECOND
UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE E ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N26W ALONG
22N41W INTO THE TROPICS TO NEAR 16N51W SUPPORTING A WEAKENING
STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N30W TO 27N40W. A LARGE
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH OFF
PORTUGAL WITH A SECOND 1026 MB HIGH ESTABLISHED W OF THE ABOVE
STATIONARY FRONT NEAR 30N39W EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS W TO THE
BAHAMA ISLANDS. THE W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL STALL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. A STRONGER REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL OVERTAKE THE
OLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 32N71W TO CENTRAL CUBA SAT EVENING FROM
32N64W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SUN MORNING THEN FROM 32N56W TO
CENTRAL HISPANIOLA LATE SUN NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

000
AXNT20 KNHC 141742
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU FEB 14 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC OVER SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W THEN ALONG 4N16W TO 4N21W
WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 2N72W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR
33W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN
8W-17W...FROM 5N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 18W-31W AND FROM 2N TO S
OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 30W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CONUS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAIN
STATES TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND OVER THE FAR NW ATLC
SUPPORTING A FRONT THAT AT 14/1500 UTC EXTENDS THROUGH THE W
ATLC BECOMING STATIONARY CONTINUING INTO THE GULF ACROSS S
FLORIDA FROM FORT LAUDERDALE THEN S OF NAPLES ALONG 25N84W
23N92W 21N95W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS RESULTING IN
MOSTLY SW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GULF WATERS. DENSE CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVERS THE
AREA N OF THE FRONT AND SE OF A LINE FROM THE ALABAMA/
MISSISSIPPI BORDER ALONG 27N92W TO TAMPICO MEXICO INCLUDING MOST
OF FLORIDA AND THE COAST OF ALABAMA. THIS IS LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE N GULF COAST UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE S OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE GULF.
STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON THEN SHIFTING SLIGHTLY TO THE E TONIGHT AND
STALLING FROM FLORIDA BAY TO THE CENTRAL YUCATAN FRI MORNING. A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE N GULF LATE FRI NIGHT
MERGING WITH THE OLD FRONT. THE NEW FRONT WILL RAPIDLY MOVE
THROUGH THE GULF PUSHING INTO THE CARIBBEAN BY SAT AFTERNOON.
RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE W GULF SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM
COLOMBIA THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE TO OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. ALTHOUGH A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...A STRONG
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC ARE PRODUCING FRESH TO
STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE
TO FRESH TRADES OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. PATCHES OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE N CARIBBEAN FROM 15N-18N
BETWEEN 64W-80W INCLUDING PUERTO RICO LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. THE TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL PERSIST THROUGH MON WHILE
THE REMAINDER WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRI...EXCEPT WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN BY TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TONIGHT WITH A
STRONGER FRONT MERGING WITH THE OLD FRONT AND PUSHING INTO THE
NW CARIBBEAN SAT. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE TO E HONDURAS SUN MORNING WHERE IT WILL STALL AND
DISSIPATE THROUGH MON. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD N OF THE
AREA LATE SUN INCREASING WINDS TO FRESH TO STRONG ACROSS THE
BASIN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CONUS AND THE FAR NW ATLC IS
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA AT
14/1500 UTC NEAR 32N67W EXTENDING TO 28N77W WHERE IT BECOMES
STATIONARY AND CROSSING FLORIDA NEAR FORT LAUDERDALE CONTINUING
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. DENSE CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVERS THE AREA WITHIN 200/225
NM NW OF THE FRONT. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN
EXTENDS THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE TO BEYOND 32N53W. A SECOND
UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE E ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N26W ALONG
22N41W INTO THE TROPICS TO NEAR 16N51W SUPPORTING A WEAKENING
STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N30W TO 27N40W. A LARGE
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH OFF
PORTUGAL WITH A SECOND 1026 MB HIGH ESTABLISHED W OF THE ABOVE
STATIONARY FRONT NEAR 30N39W EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS W TO THE
BAHAMA ISLANDS. THE W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL STALL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. A STRONGER REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL OVERTAKE THE
OLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 32N71W TO CENTRAL CUBA SAT EVENING FROM
32N64W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SUN MORNING THEN FROM 32N56W TO
CENTRAL HISPANIOLA LATE SUN NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141602
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU FEB 14 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0700 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM THE COLOMBIAN COAST AT
06N77W TO ACROSS SOUTHERN PANAMA...THEN TURNS SW TO 08N88W TO
06N108W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ.
THE ITCZ CONTINUES NW TO 08N115W TO 05N128W TO 08N136W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY FLARING ALONG THE MONSOON
TROUGH TO THE S OF PANAMA. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
07N127W TO 10N134W.

...DISCUSSION...
A MID TO UPPER CYCLONE IS FILLING NEAR 32N141W WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDING S TO BASE AT 14N141W. UPPER MOISTURE IS
ROTATING AROUND THE CYCLONE OVER THE AREA N OF 25N BETWEEN 136W
AND 142W. A SECOND UPPER TROUGH IS DIVING S INTO THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA...ROUGHLY TO THE N OF 31N BETWEEN 120W AND
130W...AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY DRY UPPER AIR. A LONGWAVE UPPER
TROUGH DOMINATING N AMERICA HAS ITS MEAN AXIS EXTENDING S ACROSS
OLD MEXICO FROM 32N100W TO 20N106W TO A BASE OVER THE PACIFIC AT
16N112W...AND IS ALSO ACCOMPANIED BY VERY DRY UPPER AIR. TO THE
S...AND SOMEWHAT SEPARATING THESE UPPER TROUGHS...IS UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDING N FROM AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE AT 12N112W TO A CREST AT
31N126W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE WESTERN TROUGH AND THE
RIDGE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ AS PREVIOUSLY
DESCRIBED. THE RESULTANT DENSE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED N AND
NE WITHIN 420 NM EITHER SIDE A LINE FROM 06N134W TO 22N128W TO
26N118W. ANOTHER UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE TROPICS AT 15N98W
WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING W TO A CREST AT 14N106W. THE UPPER LEVELS
APPEAR VERY DRY S OF 20N E OF 112W.

AT THE LOW LEVELS...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N132W TO 14N102W. NE
TRADES ARE ENHANCED TO 20 TO 25 KT S OF THE RIDGE FROM 07N TO
16N W OF 125W...WITH SEAS OF 9 TO 12 FT IN MIXING NE AND NW
SWELL. THIS ENHANCED AREA WILL SHRINK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. NORTHERLY FLOW E OF THE SURFACE RIDGE IS MAINTAINING NW TO
N WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO THE S OF
26N AND OVER THE FAR E PACIFIC WATERS N OF 17N E OF 110W. THE
AREA OF ENHANCED WINDS WILL SHIFT N ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF
CALIFORNIA ON FRI AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF ON SAT.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE SW GULF OF MEXICO TODAY WILL SQUEEZE THROUGH THE
CHIVELA PASS AND BEGIN TO GENERATE FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS IN
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AROUND SUNRISE FRI MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO FRI NIGHT WILL
STRENGTHEN THE GAP WINDS THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC...WITH A MINIMAL
GALE EXPECTED BY SUNRISE SAT...STRENGTHENING TO A STRONG GALE
SAT NIGHT...AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNRISE ON SUN.

$$
NELSON

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141602
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU FEB 14 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0700 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM THE COLOMBIAN COAST AT
06N77W TO ACROSS SOUTHERN PANAMA...THEN TURNS SW TO 08N88W TO
06N108W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ.
THE ITCZ CONTINUES NW TO 08N115W TO 05N128W TO 08N136W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY FLARING ALONG THE MONSOON
TROUGH TO THE S OF PANAMA. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
07N127W TO 10N134W.

...DISCUSSION...
A MID TO UPPER CYCLONE IS FILLING NEAR 32N141W WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDING S TO BASE AT 14N141W. UPPER MOISTURE IS
ROTATING AROUND THE CYCLONE OVER THE AREA N OF 25N BETWEEN 136W
AND 142W. A SECOND UPPER TROUGH IS DIVING S INTO THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA...ROUGHLY TO THE N OF 31N BETWEEN 120W AND
130W...AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY DRY UPPER AIR. A LONGWAVE UPPER
TROUGH DOMINATING N AMERICA HAS ITS MEAN AXIS EXTENDING S ACROSS
OLD MEXICO FROM 32N100W TO 20N106W TO A BASE OVER THE PACIFIC AT
16N112W...AND IS ALSO ACCOMPANIED BY VERY DRY UPPER AIR. TO THE
S...AND SOMEWHAT SEPARATING THESE UPPER TROUGHS...IS UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDING N FROM AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE AT 12N112W TO A CREST AT
31N126W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE WESTERN TROUGH AND THE
RIDGE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ AS PREVIOUSLY
DESCRIBED. THE RESULTANT DENSE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED N AND
NE WITHIN 420 NM EITHER SIDE A LINE FROM 06N134W TO 22N128W TO
26N118W. ANOTHER UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE TROPICS AT 15N98W
WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING W TO A CREST AT 14N106W. THE UPPER LEVELS
APPEAR VERY DRY S OF 20N E OF 112W.

AT THE LOW LEVELS...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N132W TO 14N102W. NE
TRADES ARE ENHANCED TO 20 TO 25 KT S OF THE RIDGE FROM 07N TO
16N W OF 125W...WITH SEAS OF 9 TO 12 FT IN MIXING NE AND NW
SWELL. THIS ENHANCED AREA WILL SHRINK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. NORTHERLY FLOW E OF THE SURFACE RIDGE IS MAINTAINING NW TO
N WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO THE S OF
26N AND OVER THE FAR E PACIFIC WATERS N OF 17N E OF 110W. THE
AREA OF ENHANCED WINDS WILL SHIFT N ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF
CALIFORNIA ON FRI AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF ON SAT.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE SW GULF OF MEXICO TODAY WILL SQUEEZE THROUGH THE
CHIVELA PASS AND BEGIN TO GENERATE FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS IN
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AROUND SUNRISE FRI MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO FRI NIGHT WILL
STRENGTHEN THE GAP WINDS THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC...WITH A MINIMAL
GALE EXPECTED BY SUNRISE SAT...STRENGTHENING TO A STRONG GALE
SAT NIGHT...AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNRISE ON SUN.

$$
NELSON

000
AXNT20 KNHC 141124
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU FEB 14 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF N LIBERIA NEAR
7N11W TO 4N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N16W TO 4N27W TO THE
COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 2S43W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 15W-29W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2S-4N BETWEEN 29W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0900 UTC... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM STUART FLORIDA NEAR
27N80W TO FORT MYERS FLORIDA NEAR 26N82W TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 24N90W TO S OF VERACRUZ MEXICO NEAR 19N95W. RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER S FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF
WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT E 0F 87W. MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NE
GULF N OF 28N E OF 90W. 10-25 KT N WINDS ARE OVER THE N GULF N
OF THE COLD FRONT. THE S GULF HAS 10 KT SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
WITH FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS OVER THE GULF PRODUCING SW FLOW. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE N GULF N OF 25N. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS
FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE SE AND EXTEND FROM THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND SCATTERED SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER
THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE S OF HAITI FROM
16N-18N BETWEEN 73W-77W...AND S OF CUBA TO FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN
83W-85W MOVING W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE SUPPRESSING DEEP
CONVECTION. EXPECT...IN 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO BE
OVER W CUBA...THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DUE
TO THE COLD FRONT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N71W TO S FLORIDA
NEAR 27N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A
1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N38W.
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 32N30W TO 27N39W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS E OF THE CANARY ISLANDS FROM 32N10W TO 26N12W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-50W SUPPORTING THE E ATLANTIC
FRONT. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO
EXTEND FROM 32N62W TO THE N BAHAMAS TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE E ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO DRIFT
E WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA

000
AXNT20 KNHC 141124
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU FEB 14 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF N LIBERIA NEAR
7N11W TO 4N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N16W TO 4N27W TO THE
COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 2S43W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 15W-29W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2S-4N BETWEEN 29W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0900 UTC... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM STUART FLORIDA NEAR
27N80W TO FORT MYERS FLORIDA NEAR 26N82W TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 24N90W TO S OF VERACRUZ MEXICO NEAR 19N95W. RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER S FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF
WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT E 0F 87W. MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NE
GULF N OF 28N E OF 90W. 10-25 KT N WINDS ARE OVER THE N GULF N
OF THE COLD FRONT. THE S GULF HAS 10 KT SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
WITH FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS OVER THE GULF PRODUCING SW FLOW. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE N GULF N OF 25N. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS
FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE SE AND EXTEND FROM THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND SCATTERED SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER
THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE S OF HAITI FROM
16N-18N BETWEEN 73W-77W...AND S OF CUBA TO FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN
83W-85W MOVING W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE SUPPRESSING DEEP
CONVECTION. EXPECT...IN 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO BE
OVER W CUBA...THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DUE
TO THE COLD FRONT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N71W TO S FLORIDA
NEAR 27N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A
1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N38W.
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 32N30W TO 27N39W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS E OF THE CANARY ISLANDS FROM 32N10W TO 26N12W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-50W SUPPORTING THE E ATLANTIC
FRONT. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO
EXTEND FROM 32N62W TO THE N BAHAMAS TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE E ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO DRIFT
E WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140938
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU FEB 14 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0700 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM 06N91W TO 07N94W TO 04N101W
TO 06N106W. ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 06N106W TO 09N110W TO
106N120W TO 07N135W TO 05N1340W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
WAS N OF THE ITCZ TO 17N W OF 129W.

...DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE TROUGH JUST W OF THE AREA FROM 27N150W TO 22N146W TO
14N149W IS THE REFLECTION OF AN UPPER LOW NEAR 23N143W. A
100-120 KT UPPER JET EXTENDS ON THE E SIDE OF THE LOW FROM
10N135W TO 25N130W EASTWARD INTO NW MEXICO. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF THIS JET AND A
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY UPPER JET THAT EXTENDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA
FROM 03N140W TO 00N132W IS LIFTING MOISTURE POOLED NEAR A
PERTURBATION ALONG THE ITCZ OVER WESTERN WATERS. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE FOUND N OF THE ITCZ TO 17N W OF
129W AS A RESULT. THE INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
ITCZ PERTURBATION AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS CURRENTLY
GENERATING AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS N OF THE ITCZ
TO 18N W OF 125W. THESE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO 30
KT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY
WESTWARD AND WILL DIMINISH TO A STRONG BREEZE AGAIN BY EARLY SAT
AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL
DISSIPATE AND THE JET WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

A POSITIVELY TILTED SPOKE IN THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS THROUGH THE
MOUTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA INTO NE FORECAST WATERS. THIS
SPOKE WILL SHIFT E TODAY...BUT THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE MEAN
TROUGH WILL BE RELOADED WITH BOTH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE INTERIOR WESTERN U.S. AND ENERGY EJECTED FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW CURRENTLY JUST W OF NORTHERN FORECAST
WATERS NEAR 23N143W. AT THE SURFACE...THE STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER NE WATERS AND
TROUGHING OVER NORTHERN MAINLAND MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH THE MEAN
TROUGH ALOFT IS FORCING FRESH TO STRONG N-NW WINDS DOWN THE
LENGTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASSES
CAPTURED THESE WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION AND THE MOUTH OF
THE GULF. THE LONG FETCH DOWN THE GULF HAS LIKELY ALLOWED SEAS
TO BUILD TO 9 FT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH S OF 25N OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHIFTS W...BUT THE RELOADING OF
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN THE SURFACE TROUGHING OVER
MAINLAND MEXICO...ALLOWING THE PRES GRADIENT TO REMAIN STRONG. A
FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY SAT.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE SW GULF OF MEXICO TODAY WILL SQUEEZE THROUGH THE
CHIVELA PASS AND BEGIN TO GENERATE FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS IN
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON FRI MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO FRI NIGHT AND SAT WILL STRENGTHEN THE
GAP WINDS THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC...WITH GALES EXPECTED BY SAT
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

$$
SCHAUER

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140938
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU FEB 14 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0700 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM 06N91W TO 07N94W TO 04N101W
TO 06N106W. ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 06N106W TO 09N110W TO
106N120W TO 07N135W TO 05N1340W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
WAS N OF THE ITCZ TO 17N W OF 129W.

...DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE TROUGH JUST W OF THE AREA FROM 27N150W TO 22N146W TO
14N149W IS THE REFLECTION OF AN UPPER LOW NEAR 23N143W. A
100-120 KT UPPER JET EXTENDS ON THE E SIDE OF THE LOW FROM
10N135W TO 25N130W EASTWARD INTO NW MEXICO. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF THIS JET AND A
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY UPPER JET THAT EXTENDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA
FROM 03N140W TO 00N132W IS LIFTING MOISTURE POOLED NEAR A
PERTURBATION ALONG THE ITCZ OVER WESTERN WATERS. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE FOUND N OF THE ITCZ TO 17N W OF
129W AS A RESULT. THE INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
ITCZ PERTURBATION AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS CURRENTLY
GENERATING AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS N OF THE ITCZ
TO 18N W OF 125W. THESE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO 30
KT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY
WESTWARD AND WILL DIMINISH TO A STRONG BREEZE AGAIN BY EARLY SAT
AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL
DISSIPATE AND THE JET WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

A POSITIVELY TILTED SPOKE IN THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS THROUGH THE
MOUTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA INTO NE FORECAST WATERS. THIS
SPOKE WILL SHIFT E TODAY...BUT THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE MEAN
TROUGH WILL BE RELOADED WITH BOTH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE INTERIOR WESTERN U.S. AND ENERGY EJECTED FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW CURRENTLY JUST W OF NORTHERN FORECAST
WATERS NEAR 23N143W. AT THE SURFACE...THE STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER NE WATERS AND
TROUGHING OVER NORTHERN MAINLAND MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH THE MEAN
TROUGH ALOFT IS FORCING FRESH TO STRONG N-NW WINDS DOWN THE
LENGTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASSES
CAPTURED THESE WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION AND THE MOUTH OF
THE GULF. THE LONG FETCH DOWN THE GULF HAS LIKELY ALLOWED SEAS
TO BUILD TO 9 FT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH S OF 25N OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHIFTS W...BUT THE RELOADING OF
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN THE SURFACE TROUGHING OVER
MAINLAND MEXICO...ALLOWING THE PRES GRADIENT TO REMAIN STRONG. A
FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY SAT.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE SW GULF OF MEXICO TODAY WILL SQUEEZE THROUGH THE
CHIVELA PASS AND BEGIN TO GENERATE FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS IN
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON FRI MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO FRI NIGHT AND SAT WILL STRENGTHEN THE
GAP WINDS THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC...WITH GALES EXPECTED BY SAT
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

$$
SCHAUER

000
AXNT20 KNHC 140513
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU FEB 14 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF N LIBERIA NEAR
6N11W TO 4N15W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N15W TO 4N27W TO THE
COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 2S43W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 11W-33W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 0N-3N BETWEEN 38W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0300 UTC... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM PALM BAY FLORIDA
NEAR 28N81W TO VENICE FLORIDA NEAR 27N82W TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 24N90W TO VERACRUZ MEXICO NEAR 19N96W. RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER FLORIDA N OF THE FRONT. MORE
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NE GULF N OF 29N E OF 90W. 10-25 KT N WINDS
ARE OVER THE N GULF N OF THE COLD FRONT. THE S GULF HAS 10 KT
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WITH FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF PRODUCING SW FLOW. UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE N GULF N OF
25N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT
IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE SE AND EXTEND FROM THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SCATTERED SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER
THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 67W. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE S OF CUBA TO
HONDURAS FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN 82W-85W MOVING W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION. EXPECT...IN 24 HOURS FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO BE OVER W CUBA...THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DUE TO THE COLD FRONT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N75W TO CENTRAL
FLORIDA NEAR 28N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM
OF THE FRONT. A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 30N45W. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC FROM 32N30W TO 26N40W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60
NM OF THE FRONT. A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED W OF PORTUGAL NEAR
39N15W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO 30N25W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-50W SUPPORTING THE E ATLANTIC
FRONT. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO
EXTEND FROM 32N64W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WITH CONVECTION.
ALSO EXPECT THE E ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO DRIFT E WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA

000
AXNT20 KNHC 140513
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU FEB 14 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF N LIBERIA NEAR
6N11W TO 4N15W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N15W TO 4N27W TO THE
COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 2S43W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 11W-33W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 0N-3N BETWEEN 38W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0300 UTC... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM PALM BAY FLORIDA
NEAR 28N81W TO VENICE FLORIDA NEAR 27N82W TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 24N90W TO VERACRUZ MEXICO NEAR 19N96W. RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER FLORIDA N OF THE FRONT. MORE
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NE GULF N OF 29N E OF 90W. 10-25 KT N WINDS
ARE OVER THE N GULF N OF THE COLD FRONT. THE S GULF HAS 10 KT
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WITH FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF PRODUCING SW FLOW. UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE N GULF N OF
25N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT
IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE SE AND EXTEND FROM THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SCATTERED SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER
THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 67W. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE S OF CUBA TO
HONDURAS FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN 82W-85W MOVING W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION. EXPECT...IN 24 HOURS FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO BE OVER W CUBA...THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DUE TO THE COLD FRONT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N75W TO CENTRAL
FLORIDA NEAR 28N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM
OF THE FRONT. A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 30N45W. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC FROM 32N30W TO 26N40W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60
NM OF THE FRONT. A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED W OF PORTUGAL NEAR
39N15W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO 30N25W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-50W SUPPORTING THE E ATLANTIC
FRONT. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO
EXTEND FROM 32N64W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WITH CONVECTION.
ALSO EXPECT THE E ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO DRIFT E WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140341
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU FEB 14 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 01N87W TO 06N97W TO
04.5N102W TO 06N106W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING
ON TO 08N112W TO 05N123W TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 05N TO 14N W
OF 129W.

...DISCUSSION...
A STRONGLY TILTED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
CENTRAL U.S. SW TO FAR W TEXAS...WITH A BROAD BASE THEN
EXTENDING S INTO NRN MEXICO. SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWEEPING THROUGH
THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT THE TROUGH
FURTHER EAST TONIGHT AND THU AND GRADUALLY BE REPLACED BY UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING ANCHORING OVER THE NW FORECAST WATERS. AT THE
SURFACE...A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1037 MB HIGH OVER
THE NE PACIFIC AND TROUGHING OVER NORTHERN MAINLAND MEXICO IS
DRIVING FRESH TO STRONG N-NW WINDS DOWN THE LENGTH OF THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA TO AS FAR SOUTH AS 18N BETWEEN 105W AND 109W...AND
WAS CAPTURED BY AN AFTERNOON ASCAT PASS AROUND 1730 UTC SHOWING
20-25 KT WINDS THROUGH CENTRAL AND S PORTIONS. THE LONG FETCH
DOWN THE GULF HAS ALLOWED SEAS TO BUILD TO 9 FT...AND AS WINDS
CONTINUE TONIGHT...WITH LIKELY BUILD 9-10 FT ACROSS S CENTRAL
PORTIONS. THE 1037 MB HIGH CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR 39N135W WILL
REMAIN STATIONARY UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN IT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
AND SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH IN THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES...THEN BUILD IN ACROSS N PORTIONS OF THE GULF
FRIDAY AS THE PRES GRADIENT INCREASES FROM THE NE.

A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE IS CENTERED WEST OF THE AREA NEAR 24N144W
AND IS EMBEDDED IN A HIGH AMPLITUDE MIDDLE TO UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING S-SW INTO THE DEEP TROPICS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
REFLECTED BELOW THE UPPER LOW AND REMAINS JUST W OF THE AREA. A
SERIES OF LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL PERTURBATIONS ALONG THE ITCZ WERE
SHIFTING W BETWEEN 125W AND 140W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
STRONG NE PACIFIC RIDGE AND THE ITCZ THERE WAS GENERATING A
LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS FROM 07N TO A LINE
FROM 14N116W TO 21N140W...WITH THE ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE INDUCING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 05N TO 14NW OF 129W. THIS CONVECTION WAS
BEING ENHANCED BY THE BROAD SCALE LIFT OCCURRING TO THE E AND SE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AND SPREADING ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS
NORTHEASTWARD. THESE MINOR WAVES ALONG THE ITCZ WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT W DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND INTERACT FAVORABLY WITH THE
E MOVING UPPER TROUGH TO MAINTAIN VERY ACTIVE CONVECTION E OF
THE UPPER TROUGH. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE AREA OF STRONG
TRADES WILL SHRINK IN COVERAGE AS THE NE PACIFIC HIGH SHIFTS NE.
HOWEVER WINDS BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND 14N AND FROM 130W TO 140W ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 25-30 KT THURSDAY...AS SEAS BUILD TO
10-14 FT.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE SW GULF OF MEXICO THU WILL SQUEEZE THROUGH THE
CHIVELA PASS AND BEGIN TO GENERATE FRESH N WINDS IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC BY EARLY FRI MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO FRI NIGHT AND SAT WILL STRENGTHEN THE GAP
WINDS THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC...WITH GALES EXPECTED BY LATE SAT
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

$$
STRIPLING

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140341
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU FEB 14 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 01N87W TO 06N97W TO
04.5N102W TO 06N106W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING
ON TO 08N112W TO 05N123W TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 05N TO 14N W
OF 129W.

...DISCUSSION...
A STRONGLY TILTED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
CENTRAL U.S. SW TO FAR W TEXAS...WITH A BROAD BASE THEN
EXTENDING S INTO NRN MEXICO. SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWEEPING THROUGH
THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT THE TROUGH
FURTHER EAST TONIGHT AND THU AND GRADUALLY BE REPLACED BY UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING ANCHORING OVER THE NW FORECAST WATERS. AT THE
SURFACE...A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1037 MB HIGH OVER
THE NE PACIFIC AND TROUGHING OVER NORTHERN MAINLAND MEXICO IS
DRIVING FRESH TO STRONG N-NW WINDS DOWN THE LENGTH OF THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA TO AS FAR SOUTH AS 18N BETWEEN 105W AND 109W...AND
WAS CAPTURED BY AN AFTERNOON ASCAT PASS AROUND 1730 UTC SHOWING
20-25 KT WINDS THROUGH CENTRAL AND S PORTIONS. THE LONG FETCH
DOWN THE GULF HAS ALLOWED SEAS TO BUILD TO 9 FT...AND AS WINDS
CONTINUE TONIGHT...WITH LIKELY BUILD 9-10 FT ACROSS S CENTRAL
PORTIONS. THE 1037 MB HIGH CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR 39N135W WILL
REMAIN STATIONARY UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN IT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
AND SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH IN THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES...THEN BUILD IN ACROSS N PORTIONS OF THE GULF
FRIDAY AS THE PRES GRADIENT INCREASES FROM THE NE.

A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE IS CENTERED WEST OF THE AREA NEAR 24N144W
AND IS EMBEDDED IN A HIGH AMPLITUDE MIDDLE TO UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING S-SW INTO THE DEEP TROPICS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
REFLECTED BELOW THE UPPER LOW AND REMAINS JUST W OF THE AREA. A
SERIES OF LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL PERTURBATIONS ALONG THE ITCZ WERE
SHIFTING W BETWEEN 125W AND 140W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
STRONG NE PACIFIC RIDGE AND THE ITCZ THERE WAS GENERATING A
LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS FROM 07N TO A LINE
FROM 14N116W TO 21N140W...WITH THE ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE INDUCING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 05N TO 14NW OF 129W. THIS CONVECTION WAS
BEING ENHANCED BY THE BROAD SCALE LIFT OCCURRING TO THE E AND SE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AND SPREADING ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS
NORTHEASTWARD. THESE MINOR WAVES ALONG THE ITCZ WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT W DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND INTERACT FAVORABLY WITH THE
E MOVING UPPER TROUGH TO MAINTAIN VERY ACTIVE CONVECTION E OF
THE UPPER TROUGH. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE AREA OF STRONG
TRADES WILL SHRINK IN COVERAGE AS THE NE PACIFIC HIGH SHIFTS NE.
HOWEVER WINDS BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND 14N AND FROM 130W TO 140W ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 25-30 KT THURSDAY...AS SEAS BUILD TO
10-14 FT.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE SW GULF OF MEXICO THU WILL SQUEEZE THROUGH THE
CHIVELA PASS AND BEGIN TO GENERATE FRESH N WINDS IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC BY EARLY FRI MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO FRI NIGHT AND SAT WILL STRENGTHEN THE GAP
WINDS THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC...WITH GALES EXPECTED BY LATE SAT
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

$$
STRIPLING

000
AXNT20 KNHC 132335
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED FEB 13 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W
TO 3N14W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS INTO ITCZ AND CONTINUES ALONG
1N27W EQ37W 2S41W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
3N-6N BETWEEN 9W-17W...FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 20W-32W...AND FROM
1S-2N BETWEEN 32W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT BISECTS THE GULF OF MEXICO CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM
NE FLORIDA AT 31N81W TOWARDS THE SW GULF ALONG 26N88W 22N95W
20N97W 23N101W...AS OF 2100 UTC. A LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
IS ABOUT 150 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHILE A SWATH OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS EXTENDS 90 NM TO 190 NM BEHIND...OR WEST OF THE FRONT.
NW WINDS UP TO ABOUT 15-20 KT ARE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF...AND MAY REACH UP TO 30 KT BEHIND THE
AXIS IN THE SW GULF AS INDICATED BY AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS. SOME
OF THESE STRONGER WINDS ARE RESULTING FROM THE INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN GULF AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BEHIND THE FRONT. ALOFT...AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO WESTERN TEXAS SUPPORTS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE AREA TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST. THIS PATTERN IS PROVIDING MAINLY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE GULF. DRY AIR CONTINUES TO
COVER THE SE GULF WHERE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE STILL OBSERVED.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SE ACROSS THE BASIN
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY NEAR THE AXIS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AROUND A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
COVERING THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN...AND AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING TO THE FAR NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS ALSO NOTED IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS HELPING PROVIDE FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
BASIN WITH ONLY A FEW AREAS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS. THESE AREAS OF LOW MOISTURE ARE MAINLY FROM 15N-17N
BETWEEN 69W-79W...AND FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 82W-84W. MOSTLY 15-20
KT TRADEWIND FLOW DOMINATES WITH A SMALL AREA OF 25 KT WINDS
NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BEYOND
THAT TIME...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT IN THE GULF
WILL LIKELY REACH THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE SW NORTH ATLC EXTENDING FROM THE
CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1022 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 28N50W. A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT IN THE GULF ARE BEGINNING TO IMPACT THE FAR NW CORNER
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE AZORES ISLANDS ALONG 30W WITH AXIS
CONTINUING INTO THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC AND TO THE FAR EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT
ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N32W AND CONTINUES ALONG
25N42W 20N56W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE AXIS. THE
FAR EASTERN ATLC IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1029
MB HIGH EAST OF THE AZORES NEAR 40N16W. THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED
BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE EASTERN ATLC ALONG 14W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON

000
AXNT20 KNHC 132335
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED FEB 13 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W
TO 3N14W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS INTO ITCZ AND CONTINUES ALONG
1N27W EQ37W 2S41W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
3N-6N BETWEEN 9W-17W...FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 20W-32W...AND FROM
1S-2N BETWEEN 32W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT BISECTS THE GULF OF MEXICO CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM
NE FLORIDA AT 31N81W TOWARDS THE SW GULF ALONG 26N88W 22N95W
20N97W 23N101W...AS OF 2100 UTC. A LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
IS ABOUT 150 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHILE A SWATH OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS EXTENDS 90 NM TO 190 NM BEHIND...OR WEST OF THE FRONT.
NW WINDS UP TO ABOUT 15-20 KT ARE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF...AND MAY REACH UP TO 30 KT BEHIND THE
AXIS IN THE SW GULF AS INDICATED BY AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS. SOME
OF THESE STRONGER WINDS ARE RESULTING FROM THE INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN GULF AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BEHIND THE FRONT. ALOFT...AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO WESTERN TEXAS SUPPORTS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE AREA TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST. THIS PATTERN IS PROVIDING MAINLY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE GULF. DRY AIR CONTINUES TO
COVER THE SE GULF WHERE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE STILL OBSERVED.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SE ACROSS THE BASIN
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY NEAR THE AXIS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AROUND A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
COVERING THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN...AND AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING TO THE FAR NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS ALSO NOTED IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS HELPING PROVIDE FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
BASIN WITH ONLY A FEW AREAS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS. THESE AREAS OF LOW MOISTURE ARE MAINLY FROM 15N-17N
BETWEEN 69W-79W...AND FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 82W-84W. MOSTLY 15-20
KT TRADEWIND FLOW DOMINATES WITH A SMALL AREA OF 25 KT WINDS
NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BEYOND
THAT TIME...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT IN THE GULF
WILL LIKELY REACH THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE SW NORTH ATLC EXTENDING FROM THE
CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1022 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 28N50W. A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT IN THE GULF ARE BEGINNING TO IMPACT THE FAR NW CORNER
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE AZORES ISLANDS ALONG 30W WITH AXIS
CONTINUING INTO THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC AND TO THE FAR EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT
ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N32W AND CONTINUES ALONG
25N42W 20N56W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE AXIS. THE
FAR EASTERN ATLC IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1029
MB HIGH EAST OF THE AZORES NEAR 40N16W. THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED
BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE EASTERN ATLC ALONG 14W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 132205
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED FEB 13 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2115 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 05N91W TO
05N107W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING ON TO
05N107W TO 05N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150
NM NORTH AND 90 NM SOUTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 119W AND 140W.

...DISCUSSION...
A STRONGLY TILTED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS THROUGH CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA TO A BASE IN
THE NE FORECAST WATERS NEAR 24N112W AND IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
FURTHER EAST THIS EVENING AND GRADUALLY BE REPLACED BY UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING ANCHORED OVER THE NW FORECAST WATERS BETWEEN 120W
AND 135W. AT THE SURFACE...THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE NE PACIFIC RIDGE AND TROUGHING OVER NORTHERN MAINLAND MEXICO
DUE TO THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH ALOFT IS
FORCING FRESH TO STRONG N-NW WINDS DOWN THE LENGTH OF THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA TO AS FAR SOUTH AS 18N BETWEEN 105W AND 109W. A
RECENT AFTERNOON ASCAT PASS AROUND 1730 UTC CAPTURED THESE WINDS
THROUGH CENTRAL AND S PORTIONS. THE LONG FETCH DOWN THE GULF HAS
ALLOWED SEAS TO BUILD TO 9 FT...AND AS WINDS CONTINUE
TONIGHT...WITH LIKELY BUILD 9-10 FT ACROSS S CENTRAL PORTIONS.
THE 1039 MB HIGH CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR 38.5N135W WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN IT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND
SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES...THEN BUILD IN ACROSS N PORTIONS OF THE GULF FRIDAY AS
THE PRES GRADIENT INCREASES FROM THE E.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED WEST OF THE AREA NEAR 25N144.5W AND
IS EMBEDDED IN A HIGH AMPLITUDE MIDDLE TO UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING
S-SW INTO THE DEEP TROPICS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS REFLECTED BELOW
THE UPPER LOW AND REMAINS JUST W OF THE AREA. A SERIES OF THREE
LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL PERTURBATIONS ALONG THE ITCZ WERE SHIFTING W
BETWEEN 126W AND 140W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG NE
PACIFIC RIDGE AND THE ITCZ THERE WAS GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS FROM 07N TO A LINE FROM 14N116W TO
21N140W. THESE MINOR WAVES ALONG THE ITCZ WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
W DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE
AREA OF STRONG TRADES WILL SHRINK IN COVERAGE...BUT WINDS
BETWEEN 130W AND 130W WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KT...AND SEAS BUILD
TO 10-14 FT.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE SW GULF OF MEXICO THU WILL SQUEEZE THROUGH THE
CHIVELA PASS AND GENERATE FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC BY EARLY FRI MORNING.

$$
STRIPLING

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 132205
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED FEB 13 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2115 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 05N91W TO
05N107W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING ON TO
05N107W TO 05N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150
NM NORTH AND 90 NM SOUTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 119W AND 140W.

...DISCUSSION...
A STRONGLY TILTED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS THROUGH CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA TO A BASE IN
THE NE FORECAST WATERS NEAR 24N112W AND IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
FURTHER EAST THIS EVENING AND GRADUALLY BE REPLACED BY UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING ANCHORED OVER THE NW FORECAST WATERS BETWEEN 120W
AND 135W. AT THE SURFACE...THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE NE PACIFIC RIDGE AND TROUGHING OVER NORTHERN MAINLAND MEXICO
DUE TO THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH ALOFT IS
FORCING FRESH TO STRONG N-NW WINDS DOWN THE LENGTH OF THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA TO AS FAR SOUTH AS 18N BETWEEN 105W AND 109W. A
RECENT AFTERNOON ASCAT PASS AROUND 1730 UTC CAPTURED THESE WINDS
THROUGH CENTRAL AND S PORTIONS. THE LONG FETCH DOWN THE GULF HAS
ALLOWED SEAS TO BUILD TO 9 FT...AND AS WINDS CONTINUE
TONIGHT...WITH LIKELY BUILD 9-10 FT ACROSS S CENTRAL PORTIONS.
THE 1039 MB HIGH CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR 38.5N135W WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN IT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND
SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES...THEN BUILD IN ACROSS N PORTIONS OF THE GULF FRIDAY AS
THE PRES GRADIENT INCREASES FROM THE E.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED WEST OF THE AREA NEAR 25N144.5W AND
IS EMBEDDED IN A HIGH AMPLITUDE MIDDLE TO UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING
S-SW INTO THE DEEP TROPICS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS REFLECTED BELOW
THE UPPER LOW AND REMAINS JUST W OF THE AREA. A SERIES OF THREE
LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL PERTURBATIONS ALONG THE ITCZ WERE SHIFTING W
BETWEEN 126W AND 140W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG NE
PACIFIC RIDGE AND THE ITCZ THERE WAS GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS FROM 07N TO A LINE FROM 14N116W TO
21N140W. THESE MINOR WAVES ALONG THE ITCZ WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
W DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE
AREA OF STRONG TRADES WILL SHRINK IN COVERAGE...BUT WINDS
BETWEEN 130W AND 130W WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KT...AND SEAS BUILD
TO 10-14 FT.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE SW GULF OF MEXICO THU WILL SQUEEZE THROUGH THE
CHIVELA PASS AND GENERATE FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC BY EARLY FRI MORNING.

$$
STRIPLING

000
AXNT20 KNHC 131743
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED FEB 13 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 5N9W
TO 4N13W 3N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N16W TO 1N23W 1N30W
EQ36W TO 2S41W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN
80 NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 11W AND 16W. WIDELY
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS HAPPENING WITHIN 210 NM N OF THE
ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 17W AND 35W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS HAPPENING
WITHIN 140 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 34W AND 41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
FROM NEAR TALLAHASSEE TO 29N84W 26N89W 24N93W 20N96W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST SKIES ARE WEST OF THE COLD FRONT AND RAINSHOWERS ARE
NOTED IN THE RADAR ACROSS THIS REGION. HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EAST OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 27N. UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED FROM THE EAST PACIFIC ENHANCES THE
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. RETURN FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 15-20 KT
LIES EAST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WEST OF THE FRONT NORTHERLIES
IN THE RANGE OF 25-30 KT DISPLACE THE FRONT EASTWARD. THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF ENJOY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER BUT
THESE CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE
FRONT CONTINUE A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
DOMINATE THE GULF AND THE FRONT WILL EXTEND OVER THE SE GULF
FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
EASTERLY TRADEWINDS OF 15-20 KT DOMINATE THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF THE SAME
MAGNITUDE SPREADS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW
IS IN THE S CARIBBEAN ADJACENT TO THE E COAST OF PANAMA AND N
COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 9N76W. THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE BASIN
ARE N-NE OF THE LOW WHERE THE RANGE OF MAXIMUM WIND SPEED IS
25-30 KT. THERE IS NO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE BASIN BEING
SUPPORTED BY STRONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED TO A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER GUATEMALA AND SAN SALVADOR.
HOWEVER ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL AND NW
CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS DOTTING
THESE AREAS. THE CURRENT WIND CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITHIN 24
HOURS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONT OVER THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL ATLC BEING THE
NORTHERN PART OF IT AMONG TWO BROAD HIGH PRESSURES CENTERED N OF
THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N34W
AND THEN SW TO 26N40W 22N45W 21N50W 19N57W. THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS BEING SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL NARROW TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM 40N33W TO 15N51W. SCATTERED/ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE N OF 25N AND WITHIN 230 NM EAST OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. SAME
TYPE OF CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 50 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT AXIS SOUTH OF 25N. THE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE AREAS ARE
PROVIDING ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 40W OVER
THE CENTRAL AND WEST ATLC...AS WELL AS OVER THE EAST ATLC NORTH
OF 25N EAST OF 34W. BESIDES THE AFOREMENTIONED ZONES FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS DOMINATES ELSEWHERE. WITHIN 24 HOURS...THE
FRONT CURRENTLY OVER MEXICO WILL BE POSITIONED WEST OF 70W IN
THE WEST ATLC AND THE FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WILL REMAIN
STALLED WHILE IT STEADILY WEAKEN. EXPECT RAINSHOWERS OVER THE W
ATLC BUT MINIMUM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CENTRAL ATLC FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS

000
AXNT20 KNHC 131743
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED FEB 13 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 5N9W
TO 4N13W 3N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N16W TO 1N23W 1N30W
EQ36W TO 2S41W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN
80 NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 11W AND 16W. WIDELY
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS HAPPENING WITHIN 210 NM N OF THE
ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 17W AND 35W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS HAPPENING
WITHIN 140 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 34W AND 41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
FROM NEAR TALLAHASSEE TO 29N84W 26N89W 24N93W 20N96W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST SKIES ARE WEST OF THE COLD FRONT AND RAINSHOWERS ARE
NOTED IN THE RADAR ACROSS THIS REGION. HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EAST OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 27N. UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED FROM THE EAST PACIFIC ENHANCES THE
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. RETURN FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 15-20 KT
LIES EAST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WEST OF THE FRONT NORTHERLIES
IN THE RANGE OF 25-30 KT DISPLACE THE FRONT EASTWARD. THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF ENJOY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER BUT
THESE CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE
FRONT CONTINUE A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
DOMINATE THE GULF AND THE FRONT WILL EXTEND OVER THE SE GULF
FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
EASTERLY TRADEWINDS OF 15-20 KT DOMINATE THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF THE SAME
MAGNITUDE SPREADS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW
IS IN THE S CARIBBEAN ADJACENT TO THE E COAST OF PANAMA AND N
COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 9N76W. THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE BASIN
ARE N-NE OF THE LOW WHERE THE RANGE OF MAXIMUM WIND SPEED IS
25-30 KT. THERE IS NO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE BASIN BEING
SUPPORTED BY STRONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED TO A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER GUATEMALA AND SAN SALVADOR.
HOWEVER ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL AND NW
CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS DOTTING
THESE AREAS. THE CURRENT WIND CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITHIN 24
HOURS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONT OVER THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL ATLC BEING THE
NORTHERN PART OF IT AMONG TWO BROAD HIGH PRESSURES CENTERED N OF
THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N34W
AND THEN SW TO 26N40W 22N45W 21N50W 19N57W. THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS BEING SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL NARROW TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM 40N33W TO 15N51W. SCATTERED/ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE N OF 25N AND WITHIN 230 NM EAST OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. SAME
TYPE OF CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 50 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT AXIS SOUTH OF 25N. THE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE AREAS ARE
PROVIDING ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 40W OVER
THE CENTRAL AND WEST ATLC...AS WELL AS OVER THE EAST ATLC NORTH
OF 25N EAST OF 34W. BESIDES THE AFOREMENTIONED ZONES FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS DOMINATES ELSEWHERE. WITHIN 24 HOURS...THE
FRONT CURRENTLY OVER MEXICO WILL BE POSITIONED WEST OF 70W IN
THE WEST ATLC AND THE FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WILL REMAIN
STALLED WHILE IT STEADILY WEAKEN. EXPECT RAINSHOWERS OVER THE W
ATLC BUT MINIMUM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CENTRAL ATLC FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 131541
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED FEB 13 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 09N84W TO 05N91W TO 05N107W. THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N107W TO
05N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM NORTH AND
90 NM SOUTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 119W AND 140W.

...DISCUSSION...
A POSITIVELY TILTED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS THROUGH BAJA CALIFORNIA TO A BASE
IN THE NE FORECAST WATERS NEAR 25N115W WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY AND
GRADUALLY BE REPLACED BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ANCHORED OVER THE
NW FORECAST WATERS BETWEEN 120W AND 135W. AT THE SURFACE...THE
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER NE
WATERS AND TROUGHING OVER NORTHERN MAINLAND MEXICO DUE TO THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH ALOFT IS FORCING FRESH TO
STRONG N-NW WINDS DOWN THE LENGTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO
AS FAR SOUTH AS 18N BETWEEN 105W AND 109W. A RECENT EARLIER
MORNING ASCAT PASS AROUND 13/0504 UTC CAPTURED THESE WINDS. THE
LONG FETCH DOWN THE GULF HAS LIKELY ALLOWED SEAS TO BUILD TO 8
FT. THE 1036 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR 38N136W
WILL REMAIN STATIONARY UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN IT IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AND SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH IN
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED WEST OF THE AREA NEAR 24N144W AND
REFLECTS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 28N147W TO 24N144W TO
19N147W. EARLIER ASCAT PASSES SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF NE TO E
TRADES GENERATED BY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGING
GENERALLY FROM 07N TO 20N W OF 115W AND AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE W
OF THE AREA MENTIONED ABOVE. THE LOWER PRESSURE AREA IS FORECAST
TO DRIFT WESTWARD WHILE DISSIPATING LATER TODAY...DIMINISHING
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SHRINKING THE AREA OF TRADES FROM 06N
TO 17N W OF 122W BY EARLY FRIDAY.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE SW GULF OF MEXICO THU WILL SQUEEZE THROUGH THE
CHIVELA PASS AND GENERATE FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC BY EARLY FRI MORNING.

$$
HUFFMAN

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 131541
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED FEB 13 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 09N84W TO 05N91W TO 05N107W. THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N107W TO
05N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM NORTH AND
90 NM SOUTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 119W AND 140W.

...DISCUSSION...
A POSITIVELY TILTED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS THROUGH BAJA CALIFORNIA TO A BASE
IN THE NE FORECAST WATERS NEAR 25N115W WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY AND
GRADUALLY BE REPLACED BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ANCHORED OVER THE
NW FORECAST WATERS BETWEEN 120W AND 135W. AT THE SURFACE...THE
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER NE
WATERS AND TROUGHING OVER NORTHERN MAINLAND MEXICO DUE TO THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH ALOFT IS FORCING FRESH TO
STRONG N-NW WINDS DOWN THE LENGTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO
AS FAR SOUTH AS 18N BETWEEN 105W AND 109W. A RECENT EARLIER
MORNING ASCAT PASS AROUND 13/0504 UTC CAPTURED THESE WINDS. THE
LONG FETCH DOWN THE GULF HAS LIKELY ALLOWED SEAS TO BUILD TO 8
FT. THE 1036 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR 38N136W
WILL REMAIN STATIONARY UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN IT IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AND SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH IN
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED WEST OF THE AREA NEAR 24N144W AND
REFLECTS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 28N147W TO 24N144W TO
19N147W. EARLIER ASCAT PASSES SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF NE TO E
TRADES GENERATED BY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGING
GENERALLY FROM 07N TO 20N W OF 115W AND AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE W
OF THE AREA MENTIONED ABOVE. THE LOWER PRESSURE AREA IS FORECAST
TO DRIFT WESTWARD WHILE DISSIPATING LATER TODAY...DIMINISHING
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SHRINKING THE AREA OF TRADES FROM 06N
TO 17N W OF 122W BY EARLY FRIDAY.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE SW GULF OF MEXICO THU WILL SQUEEZE THROUGH THE
CHIVELA PASS AND GENERATE FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC BY EARLY FRI MORNING.

$$
HUFFMAN

000
AXNT20 KNHC 131139
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED FEB 13 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR
8N13W TO 5N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N16W TO 3N22W TO 2N40W
TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 1S47W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 10W-34W...AND FROM 3S-2N
BETWEEN 43W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER S ALABAMA NEAR
31N86W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO MOBILE ALABAMA
TO 27N90W TO 24N96W TO TAMPICO MEXICO NEAR 21N98W. RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE FRONT. A WARM
FRONT EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW TO S SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 32N81W.
15-20 KT N WINDS ARE OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO N OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS 10-15 KT SOUTHERLY SURFACE
FLOW WITH FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 85W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE N GULF N OF 27N. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS
FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE SE AND EXTEND FROM S FLORIDA TO THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
15-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER
THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER COSTA RICA
AND PANAMA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER
THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE SUPPRESSING DEEP
CONVECTION. EXPECT...IN 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO BE
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 33N70W TO S SOUTH
CAROLINA
NEAR 32N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A
1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N51W. A COLD
FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N34W TO 24N42W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF FRONT. A 1030 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED E OF THE AZORES NEAR 38N18W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO 28N32W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN
35W-55W SUPPORTING THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COLD FRONT. EXPECT IN 24
HOURS FOR A W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 32N70W TO S
FLORIDA WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COLD
FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE E WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA

000
AXNT20 KNHC 131139
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED FEB 13 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR
8N13W TO 5N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N16W TO 3N22W TO 2N40W
TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 1S47W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 10W-34W...AND FROM 3S-2N
BETWEEN 43W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER S ALABAMA NEAR
31N86W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO MOBILE ALABAMA
TO 27N90W TO 24N96W TO TAMPICO MEXICO NEAR 21N98W. RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE FRONT. A WARM
FRONT EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW TO S SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 32N81W.
15-20 KT N WINDS ARE OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO N OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS 10-15 KT SOUTHERLY SURFACE
FLOW WITH FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 85W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE N GULF N OF 27N. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS
FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE SE AND EXTEND FROM S FLORIDA TO THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
15-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER
THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER COSTA RICA
AND PANAMA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER
THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE SUPPRESSING DEEP
CONVECTION. EXPECT...IN 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO BE
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 33N70W TO S SOUTH
CAROLINA
NEAR 32N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A
1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N51W. A COLD
FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N34W TO 24N42W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF FRONT. A 1030 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED E OF THE AZORES NEAR 38N18W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO 28N32W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN
35W-55W SUPPORTING THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COLD FRONT. EXPECT IN 24
HOURS FOR A W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 32N70W TO S
FLORIDA WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COLD
FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE E WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130936
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED FEB 13 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0715 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 02N79W TO 04N94W TO
06N103W. ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 06N103W TO 05N116W TO
08N123W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 122W AND 126W.

...DISCUSSION...
A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL
U.S. PLAINS THROUGH BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE INTO NE FORECAST
WATERS WILL SHIFT E TODAY AND GRADUALLY BE REPLACED BY UPPER
RIDGING. AT THE SURFACE...THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER NE WATERS AND TROUGHING OVER NORTHERN
MAINLAND MEXICO DUE TO THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH ALOFT IS FORCING FRESH TO STRONG N-NW WINDS DOWN THE
LENGTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE 0504 UTC ASCAT PASS
CAPTURED THESE WINDS. THE LONG FETCH DOWN THE GULF HAS LIKELY
ALLOWED SEAS TO BUILD TO 8 FT. THE 1037 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH
CURRENTLY NEAR 39N135W WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED UNTIL THU WHEN IT
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL DIMINISH IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY THU AFTERNOON AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.

AN UPPER LOW LIES JUST W OF THE AREA NEAR 25N145W AND REFLECTS A
1019 MB LOW AT THE SURFACE NEAR 26N146W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM THE LOW TO 28N145W TO 25N143W TO 18N151W. THE 0646 UTC
ASCAT PASS SHOWS FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS EXTEND E OF THE TROUGH
INTO THE FORECAST AREA N OF 22N W OF 138W. THE SURFACE LOW IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE TODAY AND THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT AWAY FROM
THE AREA...DIMINISHING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE WINDS. SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ARE
CURRENTLY JUST W OF THE AREA AND E OF THE LOW N OF 24N.

THE 0502 AND 0642 UTC ASCAT PASSES SHOW FRESH TO STRONG TRADE
WINDS N OF THE ITCZ TO 20N BETWEEN 118W AND 136W. THIS AREA OF
TRADES WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT W OF 124W OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY WESTWARD. A WEAK MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE ITCZ AT 123W IS REFLECTING AN
UNDULATION IN THE ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 122W AND 126W AS A
RESULT. THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE W OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE WESTWARD MIGRATING SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND THIS UNDULATION IN THE ITCZ WILL INTENSIFY ON WED AND
ALLOW FOR WINDS TO BUILD TO 30 KT JUST N OF THE ITCZ.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE SW GULF OF MEXICO THU WILL SQUEEZE THROUGH CHIVELA
PASS AND GENERATE FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC BY EARLY FRI MORNING.

$$
SCHAUER

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130936
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED FEB 13 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0715 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 02N79W TO 04N94W TO
06N103W. ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 06N103W TO 05N116W TO
08N123W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 122W AND 126W.

...DISCUSSION...
A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL
U.S. PLAINS THROUGH BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE INTO NE FORECAST
WATERS WILL SHIFT E TODAY AND GRADUALLY BE REPLACED BY UPPER
RIDGING. AT THE SURFACE...THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER NE WATERS AND TROUGHING OVER NORTHERN
MAINLAND MEXICO DUE TO THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH ALOFT IS FORCING FRESH TO STRONG N-NW WINDS DOWN THE
LENGTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE 0504 UTC ASCAT PASS
CAPTURED THESE WINDS. THE LONG FETCH DOWN THE GULF HAS LIKELY
ALLOWED SEAS TO BUILD TO 8 FT. THE 1037 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH
CURRENTLY NEAR 39N135W WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED UNTIL THU WHEN IT
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL DIMINISH IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY THU AFTERNOON AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.

AN UPPER LOW LIES JUST W OF THE AREA NEAR 25N145W AND REFLECTS A
1019 MB LOW AT THE SURFACE NEAR 26N146W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM THE LOW TO 28N145W TO 25N143W TO 18N151W. THE 0646 UTC
ASCAT PASS SHOWS FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS EXTEND E OF THE TROUGH
INTO THE FORECAST AREA N OF 22N W OF 138W. THE SURFACE LOW IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE TODAY AND THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT AWAY FROM
THE AREA...DIMINISHING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE WINDS. SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ARE
CURRENTLY JUST W OF THE AREA AND E OF THE LOW N OF 24N.

THE 0502 AND 0642 UTC ASCAT PASSES SHOW FRESH TO STRONG TRADE
WINDS N OF THE ITCZ TO 20N BETWEEN 118W AND 136W. THIS AREA OF
TRADES WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT W OF 124W OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY WESTWARD. A WEAK MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE ITCZ AT 123W IS REFLECTING AN
UNDULATION IN THE ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 122W AND 126W AS A
RESULT. THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE W OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE WESTWARD MIGRATING SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND THIS UNDULATION IN THE ITCZ WILL INTENSIFY ON WED AND
ALLOW FOR WINDS TO BUILD TO 30 KT JUST N OF THE ITCZ.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE SW GULF OF MEXICO THU WILL SQUEEZE THROUGH CHIVELA
PASS AND GENERATE FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC BY EARLY FRI MORNING.

$$
SCHAUER

000
AXNT20 KNHC 130514
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED FEB 13 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR
8N13W TO 5N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N16W TO 3N22W TO 2N40W
TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 1S47W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 15W-34W...AND FROM 5N-8N
BETWEEN 36W-51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
COAST OF BRAZIL FROM 2S-1N BETWEEN 46W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER SE LOUISIANA NEAR 31N91W. A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO NE MEXICO NEAR 25N98W. RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. A WARM
FRONT EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW TO S GEORGIA NEAR 31N82W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN 83W-87W. 15 KT N WINDS ARE OVER
THE NW GULF OF MEXICO N OF THE COLD FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF HAS 10-15 KT SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WITH STRONGEST WINDS S
OF THE LOW CENTER. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS ALSO OVER THE WARM
SECTOR. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE
GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 85W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH
CLOUDS ARE OVER THE N GULF N OF 27N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT
TO MOVE SE AND EXTEND FROM S FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH
A GOOD AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SCATTERED SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
15-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER
THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER COSTA RICA
AND CENTRAL HONDURAS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE SUPPRESSING DEEP
CONVECTION. EXPECT...IN 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO BE
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N70W TO SE GEORGIA
NEAR 31N82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. A
1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N53W. A COLD
FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N35W TO 24N44W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF FRONT. A 1032 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED E OF THE AZORES NEAR 38N18W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO 27N33W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN
35W-55W SUPPORTING THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COLD FRONT. EXPECT IN 24
HOURS FOR A W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 32N76W TO S
FLORIDA WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COLD
FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE E WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA

000
AXNT20 KNHC 130514
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED FEB 13 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR
8N13W TO 5N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N16W TO 3N22W TO 2N40W
TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 1S47W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 15W-34W...AND FROM 5N-8N
BETWEEN 36W-51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
COAST OF BRAZIL FROM 2S-1N BETWEEN 46W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER SE LOUISIANA NEAR 31N91W. A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO NE MEXICO NEAR 25N98W. RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. A WARM
FRONT EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW TO S GEORGIA NEAR 31N82W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN 83W-87W. 15 KT N WINDS ARE OVER
THE NW GULF OF MEXICO N OF THE COLD FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF HAS 10-15 KT SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WITH STRONGEST WINDS S
OF THE LOW CENTER. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS ALSO OVER THE WARM
SECTOR. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE
GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 85W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH
CLOUDS ARE OVER THE N GULF N OF 27N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT
TO MOVE SE AND EXTEND FROM S FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH
A GOOD AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SCATTERED SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
15-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER
THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER COSTA RICA
AND CENTRAL HONDURAS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE SUPPRESSING DEEP
CONVECTION. EXPECT...IN 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO BE
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N70W TO SE GEORGIA
NEAR 31N82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. A
1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N53W. A COLD
FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N35W TO 24N44W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF FRONT. A 1032 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED E OF THE AZORES NEAR 38N18W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO 27N33W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN
35W-55W SUPPORTING THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COLD FRONT. EXPECT IN 24
HOURS FOR A W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 32N76W TO S
FLORIDA WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COLD
FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE E WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130332
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED FEB 13 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0215 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS 00N85W TO 06N95W TO 05N102W...WHERE
IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING TO 07N126W TO 05N132W TO
05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED
WITHIN 120 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 89W AND 94W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 150 NM N AND
270 NM S OF ITCZ BETWEEN 124W AND 131W.

...DISCUSSION...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY JUST W OF THE
AREA. SOUTHEAST OF THIS TROUGH...A STRONG 80-120 KT SUBTROPICAL
JET PERSISTS FROM JUST OFF THE EQUATOR SOUTH OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS THROUGH 15N140W E-NE ACROSS THE S TIP OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND ACROSS NRN MEXICO...TRANSPORTING
TROPICAL UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. THE JET IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
TONIGHT AND WED AND SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. TO THE EAST...A
LONG WAVE TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER THE INTERIOR WESTERN UNITED
STATES...AND EXTENDS SW THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES OF THE
U.S. AND ACROSS FAR N BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE WEST PORTIONS OF THIS
TROUGH ARE DROPPING SLOWLY S INTO THE NE FORECAST WATERS...WITH
MEAN TROUGH AXIS FORECAST TO BECOME STATIONARY ALONG ABOUT 30N
THERE WED. SURFACE TROUGHING ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTALES
HAS STRENGTHENED TODAY AS DEEP LAYERED LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD
FRONT HAVE MOVED INTO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO REGION. THIS HAS
ACTED TO INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NW...AFFECTING WINDS THROUGH
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. PARTIAL ASCAT PASSES FROM 17-1800 UTC
THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED 20-25 KT N-NW WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE GULF S OF 29N...WHILE A 1944 UTC OSCAT PASS ALSO
SHOWED SIMILAR WINDS THROUGH CENTRAL AND S PORTIONS. THESE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND N AND S THROUGH THE ENTIRE GULF
TONIGHT...WITH FREQUENT WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
THESE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MIDDAY THU BEFORE DIMINISHING...WITH SEAS BUILDING 8-10 FT
ACROSS S PORTIONS TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT.

AN UPPER LOW LIES JUST W OF THE AREA EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE...CENTERED NEAR 25N145.5W AND
REFLECTS A 1019 MB LOW AT THE SURFACE NEAR 26N146W. NW SWELL
FROM THIS SYSTEM THAT MOVED INTO THE NW WATERS A FEW DAYS AGO IS
MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHEASTWARD...WITH PERIODS ON THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE SWELL TRAIN IN THE 19-21 SECOND RANGE. THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE SWELL WILL REACH 95W S OF 13N BY WED MORNING BEFORE
MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD SW SWELL E OF 95W. THE SURFACE LOW WILL
MOVE SW AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE...BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE LINGERING TROUGHING AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL
KEEP FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST
AREA INTO WED MORNING. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE CURRENTLY JUST W OF THE AREA AND E OF THE LOW N OF 22.5N.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL HUG NW WATERS THIS EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING
SW AND DIMINISHING.

AFTERNOON SCATTEROMETER PASSES SHOWED FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
TRADE WINDS OVER THE WATERS N OF THE ITCZ FROM 09N TO 20N
BETWEEN 122W AND 135W AND FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 113W AND 122W
AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DOMINATES BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGHING OVER W MEXICO AND TROUGHING OVER NW WATERS. LOOK FOR
THE TRADES TO REMAIN UNCHANGED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN
SHIFT WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD BY EARLY THU. A SIGNIFICANT
PERTURBATION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE ITCZ ALONG 127W AND IS
ENHANCING THE TRADES JUST NORTH OF THIS WAVE. AS THIS
PERTURBATION SHIFTS W DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS...AND DIRECTLY S OF
THE HIGH ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC...WINDS ACROSS THE N SEMICIRCLE
OF THIS FEATURE ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 25-30 KT...AND SEAS
BUILDING 10-15 FT.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE MONSOON
TROUGH TO THE S AND RIDGING OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WAS WEAKENED
SUFFICIENTLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO ALLOW WIND FLOW
THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA AND INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO
DIMINISH. AFTERNOON SCATTEROMETER PASSES ACROSS THIS REGION
SUGGEST NE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO NEAR 20 KT...AND A FURTHER
WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS THE ATLC HIGH RIDGE
WEAKENS ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN.

$$
STRIPLING

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130332
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED FEB 13 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0215 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS 00N85W TO 06N95W TO 05N102W...WHERE
IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING TO 07N126W TO 05N132W TO
05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED
WITHIN 120 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 89W AND 94W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 150 NM N AND
270 NM S OF ITCZ BETWEEN 124W AND 131W.

...DISCUSSION...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY JUST W OF THE
AREA. SOUTHEAST OF THIS TROUGH...A STRONG 80-120 KT SUBTROPICAL
JET PERSISTS FROM JUST OFF THE EQUATOR SOUTH OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS THROUGH 15N140W E-NE ACROSS THE S TIP OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND ACROSS NRN MEXICO...TRANSPORTING
TROPICAL UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. THE JET IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
TONIGHT AND WED AND SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. TO THE EAST...A
LONG WAVE TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER THE INTERIOR WESTERN UNITED
STATES...AND EXTENDS SW THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES OF THE
U.S. AND ACROSS FAR N BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE WEST PORTIONS OF THIS
TROUGH ARE DROPPING SLOWLY S INTO THE NE FORECAST WATERS...WITH
MEAN TROUGH AXIS FORECAST TO BECOME STATIONARY ALONG ABOUT 30N
THERE WED. SURFACE TROUGHING ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTALES
HAS STRENGTHENED TODAY AS DEEP LAYERED LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD
FRONT HAVE MOVED INTO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO REGION. THIS HAS
ACTED TO INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NW...AFFECTING WINDS THROUGH
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. PARTIAL ASCAT PASSES FROM 17-1800 UTC
THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED 20-25 KT N-NW WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE GULF S OF 29N...WHILE A 1944 UTC OSCAT PASS ALSO
SHOWED SIMILAR WINDS THROUGH CENTRAL AND S PORTIONS. THESE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND N AND S THROUGH THE ENTIRE GULF
TONIGHT...WITH FREQUENT WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
THESE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MIDDAY THU BEFORE DIMINISHING...WITH SEAS BUILDING 8-10 FT
ACROSS S PORTIONS TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT.

AN UPPER LOW LIES JUST W OF THE AREA EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE...CENTERED NEAR 25N145.5W AND
REFLECTS A 1019 MB LOW AT THE SURFACE NEAR 26N146W. NW SWELL
FROM THIS SYSTEM THAT MOVED INTO THE NW WATERS A FEW DAYS AGO IS
MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHEASTWARD...WITH PERIODS ON THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE SWELL TRAIN IN THE 19-21 SECOND RANGE. THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE SWELL WILL REACH 95W S OF 13N BY WED MORNING BEFORE
MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD SW SWELL E OF 95W. THE SURFACE LOW WILL
MOVE SW AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE...BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE LINGERING TROUGHING AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL
KEEP FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST
AREA INTO WED MORNING. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE CURRENTLY JUST W OF THE AREA AND E OF THE LOW N OF 22.5N.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL HUG NW WATERS THIS EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING
SW AND DIMINISHING.

AFTERNOON SCATTEROMETER PASSES SHOWED FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
TRADE WINDS OVER THE WATERS N OF THE ITCZ FROM 09N TO 20N
BETWEEN 122W AND 135W AND FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 113W AND 122W
AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DOMINATES BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGHING OVER W MEXICO AND TROUGHING OVER NW WATERS. LOOK FOR
THE TRADES TO REMAIN UNCHANGED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN
SHIFT WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD BY EARLY THU. A SIGNIFICANT
PERTURBATION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE ITCZ ALONG 127W AND IS
ENHANCING THE TRADES JUST NORTH OF THIS WAVE. AS THIS
PERTURBATION SHIFTS W DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS...AND DIRECTLY S OF
THE HIGH ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC...WINDS ACROSS THE N SEMICIRCLE
OF THIS FEATURE ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 25-30 KT...AND SEAS
BUILDING 10-15 FT.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE MONSOON
TROUGH TO THE S AND RIDGING OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WAS WEAKENED
SUFFICIENTLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO ALLOW WIND FLOW
THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA AND INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO
DIMINISH. AFTERNOON SCATTEROMETER PASSES ACROSS THIS REGION
SUGGEST NE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO NEAR 20 KT...AND A FURTHER
WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS THE ATLC HIGH RIDGE
WEAKENS ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN.

$$
STRIPLING

000
AXNT20 KNHC 122341
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE FEB 12 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 7N12W TO 5N20W. THE ITCZ BEGINS AT 5N20W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 1N30W EQ44W 2S47W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-4N BETWEEN 10W-12W...AND FROM 2N-4N
BETWEEN 23W-25W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N
BETWEEN 37W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO
FOR THE TIME BEING...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS APPROACHING AND
SUPPORTS A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW OVER LOUISIANA NEAR 31N93W...AS
OF 2100 UTC. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 25N98W
CONTINUING INTO NORTHEAST MEXICO. A WARM FRONT DRAPES ACROSS THE
NE GULF COAST STATES FROM THE LOW CENTER EASTWARD TO NEAR
31N83W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COLD FRONT WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE WARM FRONT...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
IS UNDER WEAK SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE WEST ATLC. THE
SURFACE RIDGING COUPLED WITH DRY AIR ALOFT IS PROVIDING FAIR
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
THE BASIN. MAINLY SOUTHERLY FLOW OF 15-20 KT IS EAST OF THE
FRONT SHIFTING TO NW FLOW WEST OF THE FRONT. EXPECT THE FRONT TO
MOVE THROUGH THE BASIN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE NEAR THE AXIS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AROUND A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
COVERING THE WESTERN HALF OF THE BASIN CENTERED OVER
GUATEMALA...AND AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC
EXTENDING TO THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS
ALSO NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
THE DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS HELPING PROVIDE FAIR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN WITH ONLY A FEW AREAS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. THESE AREAS OF LOW
MOISTURE ARE MAINLY FROM 15N-17N EAST OF JAMAICA TO THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. THIS MOISTURE IS ALL THAT REMAINS OF A SHEAR AXIS THAT
IS QUICKLY DISSIPATING WITH ONLY A SMALL PORTION EXTENDING FROM
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO 15N64W. MAINLY 15-20 KT TRADEWIND FLOW
DOMINATES WITH A SMALL AREA OF 25 KT WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE SW NORTH ATLC EXTENDING FROM THE
CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1024 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 31N54W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE EAST ALONG
42W SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N38W AND
CONTINUES TO 23N45W WHERE IT BECOMES A SHEAR AXIS TO THE NE
CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 160 NM EAST OF THE COLD FRONT WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS NEAR THE SHEAR AXIS. THE FAR EASTERN ATLC IS DOMINATED
BY SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1031 MB HIGH EAST OF THE AZORES NEAR
38N19W. THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING
THE EASTERN ATLC ALONG 18W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON

000
AXNT20 KNHC 122341
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE FEB 12 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 7N12W TO 5N20W. THE ITCZ BEGINS AT 5N20W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 1N30W EQ44W 2S47W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-4N BETWEEN 10W-12W...AND FROM 2N-4N
BETWEEN 23W-25W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N
BETWEEN 37W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO
FOR THE TIME BEING...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS APPROACHING AND
SUPPORTS A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW OVER LOUISIANA NEAR 31N93W...AS
OF 2100 UTC. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 25N98W
CONTINUING INTO NORTHEAST MEXICO. A WARM FRONT DRAPES ACROSS THE
NE GULF COAST STATES FROM THE LOW CENTER EASTWARD TO NEAR
31N83W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COLD FRONT WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE WARM FRONT...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
IS UNDER WEAK SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE WEST ATLC. THE
SURFACE RIDGING COUPLED WITH DRY AIR ALOFT IS PROVIDING FAIR
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
THE BASIN. MAINLY SOUTHERLY FLOW OF 15-20 KT IS EAST OF THE
FRONT SHIFTING TO NW FLOW WEST OF THE FRONT. EXPECT THE FRONT TO
MOVE THROUGH THE BASIN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE NEAR THE AXIS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AROUND A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
COVERING THE WESTERN HALF OF THE BASIN CENTERED OVER
GUATEMALA...AND AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC
EXTENDING TO THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS
ALSO NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
THE DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS HELPING PROVIDE FAIR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN WITH ONLY A FEW AREAS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. THESE AREAS OF LOW
MOISTURE ARE MAINLY FROM 15N-17N EAST OF JAMAICA TO THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. THIS MOISTURE IS ALL THAT REMAINS OF A SHEAR AXIS THAT
IS QUICKLY DISSIPATING WITH ONLY A SMALL PORTION EXTENDING FROM
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO 15N64W. MAINLY 15-20 KT TRADEWIND FLOW
DOMINATES WITH A SMALL AREA OF 25 KT WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE SW NORTH ATLC EXTENDING FROM THE
CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1024 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 31N54W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE EAST ALONG
42W SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N38W AND
CONTINUES TO 23N45W WHERE IT BECOMES A SHEAR AXIS TO THE NE
CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 160 NM EAST OF THE COLD FRONT WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS NEAR THE SHEAR AXIS. THE FAR EASTERN ATLC IS DOMINATED
BY SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1031 MB HIGH EAST OF THE AZORES NEAR
38N19W. THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING
THE EASTERN ATLC ALONG 18W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 122203
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE FEB 12 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2115 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS 02N81W TO 05N88W TO 05.5N101W...
WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ AXIS...CONTINUING TO 07N123W TO
04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED
WITHIN 120 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 88W AND 94W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N AND 90
NM S OF ITCZ BETWEEN 123W AND 130W.

...DISCUSSION...
A STRONG 80-120 KT SUBTROPICAL JET REMAINS IN PLACE FROM 17N140W
E-NE ACROSS THE S HALF OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND INTO
NRN MEXICO...AND LOCATED S OF TWO SEPARATE TROUGHS EXTENDING
FROM THE NE PACIFIC INTO N PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE JET IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN TONIGHT AND WED AND SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD AS
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. TO THE EAST...A STRONG AND ELONGATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIES
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A MEAN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER
THE INTERIOR WESTERN UNITED STATES...AND IS CURRENTLY ENTERING
NW MEXICO AS A NEW SHORTWAVE SYSTEM ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MEAN
TROUGH IS DROPPING S INTO THE NE FORECAST WATERS. BOTH SYSTEMS
WILL MERGE WITH THE MEAN TROUGH BY THU. WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING
IN NE WATERS AND ALONG THE BAJA PENINSULA HAS STRENGTHENED IN
THE PAST 12 HOURS TO INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA. PARTIAL ASCAT PASSES FROM 17-1800 UTC SHOWED
20-25 KT N-NW WINDS ACROSS N AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE GULF S
OF 29N WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND N AND S THROUGH THE ENTIRE
GULF TONIGHT...WITH WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
THESE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MIDDAY THU BEFORE DIMINISHING...WITH SEAS BUILDING 8-9 FT ACROSS
S PORTIONS TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT.

AN UPPER LOW LIES JUST W OF THE AREA NEAR 26N145W AND REFLECTS A
1020 MB LOW AT THE SURFACE NEAR 26.5N145.5W. NW SWELL FROM THIS
SYSTEM THAT MOVED INTO THE NW WATERS A FEW DAYS AGO IS MAKING
ITS WAY SOUTHEASTWARD...WITH PERIODS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
SWELL TRAIN IN THE 19-21 SECOND RANGE. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
SWELL IS CURRENTLY NEAR MANZANILLO MEXICO AND WILL LIE ALONG 95W
S OF 13N BY WED MORNING BEFORE MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD SW SWELL
E OF 95W. THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE SW AND GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE...BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LINGERING
TROUGHING AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL KEEP FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO WED MORNING.
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY JUST W OF
THE AREA AND E OF THE LOW N OF 25N. THESE CONDITIONS WILL HUG NW
WATERS THIS EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING SW AND DIMINISHING.

AFTERNOON SCATTEROMETER PASSES SHOWED FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
TRADE WINDS OVER THE WATERS N OF THE ITCZ FROM 09N TO 20N W OF
125W AND FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 113W AND 125W AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILT BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGHING
OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA AND TROUGHING OVER NW WATERS. LOOK FOR
TRADES TO REMAIN UNCHANGED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN SHIFT
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD BY EARLY THU.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE MONSOON
TROUGH TO THE S AND RIDGING OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN REMAINS
MODERATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...TRADE WINDS HAVE WEAKENED
ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN TODAY...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN A SLIGHTLY
DIMINISHED NE TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA AND INTO
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. AFTERNOON SCATTEROMETER PASSES ACROSS THIS
REGION SUGGEST NE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO NEAR 20 KT...AND A
FURTHER WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS THE ATLC HIGH
RIDGE WEAKENS ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN.

$$
STRIPLING

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 122203
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE FEB 12 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2115 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS 02N81W TO 05N88W TO 05.5N101W...
WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ AXIS...CONTINUING TO 07N123W TO
04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED
WITHIN 120 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 88W AND 94W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N AND 90
NM S OF ITCZ BETWEEN 123W AND 130W.

...DISCUSSION...
A STRONG 80-120 KT SUBTROPICAL JET REMAINS IN PLACE FROM 17N140W
E-NE ACROSS THE S HALF OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND INTO
NRN MEXICO...AND LOCATED S OF TWO SEPARATE TROUGHS EXTENDING
FROM THE NE PACIFIC INTO N PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE JET IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN TONIGHT AND WED AND SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD AS
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. TO THE EAST...A STRONG AND ELONGATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIES
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A MEAN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER
THE INTERIOR WESTERN UNITED STATES...AND IS CURRENTLY ENTERING
NW MEXICO AS A NEW SHORTWAVE SYSTEM ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MEAN
TROUGH IS DROPPING S INTO THE NE FORECAST WATERS. BOTH SYSTEMS
WILL MERGE WITH THE MEAN TROUGH BY THU. WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING
IN NE WATERS AND ALONG THE BAJA PENINSULA HAS STRENGTHENED IN
THE PAST 12 HOURS TO INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA. PARTIAL ASCAT PASSES FROM 17-1800 UTC SHOWED
20-25 KT N-NW WINDS ACROSS N AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE GULF S
OF 29N WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND N AND S THROUGH THE ENTIRE
GULF TONIGHT...WITH WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
THESE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MIDDAY THU BEFORE DIMINISHING...WITH SEAS BUILDING 8-9 FT ACROSS
S PORTIONS TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT.

AN UPPER LOW LIES JUST W OF THE AREA NEAR 26N145W AND REFLECTS A
1020 MB LOW AT THE SURFACE NEAR 26.5N145.5W. NW SWELL FROM THIS
SYSTEM THAT MOVED INTO THE NW WATERS A FEW DAYS AGO IS MAKING
ITS WAY SOUTHEASTWARD...WITH PERIODS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
SWELL TRAIN IN THE 19-21 SECOND RANGE. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
SWELL IS CURRENTLY NEAR MANZANILLO MEXICO AND WILL LIE ALONG 95W
S OF 13N BY WED MORNING BEFORE MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD SW SWELL
E OF 95W. THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE SW AND GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE...BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LINGERING
TROUGHING AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL KEEP FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO WED MORNING.
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY JUST W OF
THE AREA AND E OF THE LOW N OF 25N. THESE CONDITIONS WILL HUG NW
WATERS THIS EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING SW AND DIMINISHING.

AFTERNOON SCATTEROMETER PASSES SHOWED FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
TRADE WINDS OVER THE WATERS N OF THE ITCZ FROM 09N TO 20N W OF
125W AND FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 113W AND 125W AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILT BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGHING
OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA AND TROUGHING OVER NW WATERS. LOOK FOR
TRADES TO REMAIN UNCHANGED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN SHIFT
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD BY EARLY THU.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE MONSOON
TROUGH TO THE S AND RIDGING OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN REMAINS
MODERATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...TRADE WINDS HAVE WEAKENED
ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN TODAY...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN A SLIGHTLY
DIMINISHED NE TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA AND INTO
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. AFTERNOON SCATTEROMETER PASSES ACROSS THIS
REGION SUGGEST NE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO NEAR 20 KT...AND A
FURTHER WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS THE ATLC HIGH
RIDGE WEAKENS ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN.

$$
STRIPLING

000
AXNT20 KNHC 121749
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE FEB 12 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO
04N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
04N20W TO 02N37W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 46W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-04N BETWEEN 27W-45W...AND FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 06N BETWEEN 47W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER EASTERN QUEBEC THAT
SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM 30N85W TO 29N93W TO THE TEXAS
COAST NEAR BROWNSVILLE AND THEN INLAND ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 50 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AND WELL
NORTH OF THE FRONT OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC IS PROVIDING FOR
SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT. SKIES REMAIN
GENERALLY CLEAR OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH CLOUDINESS
INCREASING IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT N OF 26N. THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATER TODAY AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND MOVES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SE CONUS INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH CYCLOGENESIS
ANTICIPATED...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE
OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY INTRODUCING NORTHERLY WINDS IN WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR
THE NW AND WEST-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING VERY DRY AIR AND
STRONG SUBSIDENCE KEEPING SKIES FAIR AND CONDITIONS TRANQUIL
ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION TO
AN OVERALL QUIET DAY IS THE PRESENCE OF A SHEAR LINE ANALYZED
FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N62W TO 16N66W
TO 16N71W. THE SHEAR LINE IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 58W-75W....INCLUDING A
PORTION OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS STRETCH WESTWARD OCCURRING OVER JAMAICA AS WELL FROM
17N-20N BETWEEN 75W-79W. OTHERWISE...TRADES REMAIN BRISK
GENERALLY IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT WITH HIGHER SPEEDS
FORECAST IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. LOOKING
AHEAD...THE SHEAR LINE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SLOWLY DRIFTING
SOUTHWARD AND BECOME DIFFUSE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WHILE
CONTINUING TO PROVIDE INCREASED PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS FROM OVER CENTRAL AMERICA
NEAR 15N90W NORTHEASTWARD TO BEYOND 32N72W IN THE SW NORTH ATLC.
THE RIDGING IS PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR A 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 31N56W. FAIR SKIES AND CONDITIONS ARE NOTED N OF
20N W OF 50W IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE HIGH. HOWEVER...THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N76W TO THE GEORGIA COAST
NEAR 31N81W. WHILE MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS LOCATED NORTH OF
THE DISCUSSION AREA...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING N OF 31N
BETWEEN 68W-80W. FARTHER EAST...AN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WITH AXIS ALONG 42W DIPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC AND
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N39W TO 23N47W WHICH THEN
BECOMES A SHEAR LINE TO 17N60W AND INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT AND WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
SHEAR LINE. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS
DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED
EAST OF THE AZORES NEAR 38N20W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN

000
AXNT20 KNHC 121749
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE FEB 12 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO
04N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
04N20W TO 02N37W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 46W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-04N BETWEEN 27W-45W...AND FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 06N BETWEEN 47W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER EASTERN QUEBEC THAT
SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM 30N85W TO 29N93W TO THE TEXAS
COAST NEAR BROWNSVILLE AND THEN INLAND ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 50 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AND WELL
NORTH OF THE FRONT OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC IS PROVIDING FOR
SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT. SKIES REMAIN
GENERALLY CLEAR OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH CLOUDINESS
INCREASING IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT N OF 26N. THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATER TODAY AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND MOVES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SE CONUS INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH CYCLOGENESIS
ANTICIPATED...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE
OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY INTRODUCING NORTHERLY WINDS IN WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR
THE NW AND WEST-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING VERY DRY AIR AND
STRONG SUBSIDENCE KEEPING SKIES FAIR AND CONDITIONS TRANQUIL
ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION TO
AN OVERALL QUIET DAY IS THE PRESENCE OF A SHEAR LINE ANALYZED
FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N62W TO 16N66W
TO 16N71W. THE SHEAR LINE IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 58W-75W....INCLUDING A
PORTION OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS STRETCH WESTWARD OCCURRING OVER JAMAICA AS WELL FROM
17N-20N BETWEEN 75W-79W. OTHERWISE...TRADES REMAIN BRISK
GENERALLY IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT WITH HIGHER SPEEDS
FORECAST IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. LOOKING
AHEAD...THE SHEAR LINE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SLOWLY DRIFTING
SOUTHWARD AND BECOME DIFFUSE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WHILE
CONTINUING TO PROVIDE INCREASED PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS FROM OVER CENTRAL AMERICA
NEAR 15N90W NORTHEASTWARD TO BEYOND 32N72W IN THE SW NORTH ATLC.
THE RIDGING IS PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR A 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 31N56W. FAIR SKIES AND CONDITIONS ARE NOTED N OF
20N W OF 50W IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE HIGH. HOWEVER...THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N76W TO THE GEORGIA COAST
NEAR 31N81W. WHILE MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS LOCATED NORTH OF
THE DISCUSSION AREA...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING N OF 31N
BETWEEN 68W-80W. FARTHER EAST...AN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WITH AXIS ALONG 42W DIPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC AND
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N39W TO 23N47W WHICH THEN
BECOMES A SHEAR LINE TO 17N60W AND INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT AND WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
SHEAR LINE. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS
DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED
EAST OF THE AZORES NEAR 38N20W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 121557
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE FEB 12 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1530 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 06N77W TO 06N90W TO 06N100W. ITCZ AXIS
FROM 06N100W TO 04N111W TO 07N123W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF 03N90W.

...DISCUSSION...
A STRONG 130-140 KT WESTERLY SUBTROPICAL JET IN PLACE FROM
20N140W TO NW MEXICO WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AND WED AND SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA. TO THE EAST...A STRONG AND ELONGATED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIES IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A MEAN UPPER
TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE INTERIOR WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS
ENERGY WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO NW MEXICO TONIGHT AS A NEW
SHORTWAVE SYSTEM ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MEAN TROUGH APPROACHES
NE FORECAST WATERS FROM THE N. BOTH SYSTEMS WILL MERGE WITH THE
MEAN TROUGH BY THU. AS FIRST SHORTWAVE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND
TONIGHT...WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING IN NE WATERS AND ALONG THE BAJA
PENINSULA WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE INTO NW MAINLAND MEXICO AS
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. FRESH TO STRONG
N-NW WINDS ARE FORECAST TO OVERTAKE THE GULF TONIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST THU MORNING AS A RESULT.

AN UPPER LOW LIES JUST W OF THE AREA NEAR 27N146W AND REFLECTS A
1019 MB LOW AT THE SURFACE NEAR 26N144W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM 30N145W THROUGH THE LOW TO 21N147W. NW SWELL FROM THIS
SYSTEM THAT MOVED INTO THE NW WATERS A FEW DAYS AGO IS MAKING
ITS WAY SOUTHEASTWARD...WITH PERIODS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
SWELL TRAIN IN THE 19-21 SECOND RANGE. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
SWELL IS CURRENTLY NEAR MANZANILLO MEXICO AND WILL LIE ALONG 95W
S OF 13N BY WED MORNING BEFORE MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD SW SWELL
E OF 95W. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE SW AND GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE...BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LINGERING
TROUGHING AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL KEEP FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO WED MORNING.
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ARE
CURRENTLY JUST W OF THE AREA AND E OF THE TROUGH N OF 27N. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL HUG NW WATERS TODAY BEFORE SHIFTING SW AND
DIMINISHING.

A MUCH EARLIER 0730 UTC OSCAT PASS SHOWED FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE WATERS N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 117W
AND 135W AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILT BETWEEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGHING OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA AND TROUGHING
OVER NW WATERS. LOOK FOR TRADES TO REMAIN UNCHANGED FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS AND THEN SHIFT WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD BY EARLY THU.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE MONSOON
TROUGH TO THE S AND RIDGING OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN HAS GENERATED
FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA AND
INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND
WESTWARD TO 89W THIS MORNING. RIDGING IN THE CARIBBEAN WILL
WEAKEN LATER TODAY...SLACKENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
DIMINISHING WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO.

$$
COBB

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 121557
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE FEB 12 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1530 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 06N77W TO 06N90W TO 06N100W. ITCZ AXIS
FROM 06N100W TO 04N111W TO 07N123W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF 03N90W.

...DISCUSSION...
A STRONG 130-140 KT WESTERLY SUBTROPICAL JET IN PLACE FROM
20N140W TO NW MEXICO WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AND WED AND SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA. TO THE EAST...A STRONG AND ELONGATED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIES IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A MEAN UPPER
TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE INTERIOR WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS
ENERGY WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO NW MEXICO TONIGHT AS A NEW
SHORTWAVE SYSTEM ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MEAN TROUGH APPROACHES
NE FORECAST WATERS FROM THE N. BOTH SYSTEMS WILL MERGE WITH THE
MEAN TROUGH BY THU. AS FIRST SHORTWAVE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND
TONIGHT...WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING IN NE WATERS AND ALONG THE BAJA
PENINSULA WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE INTO NW MAINLAND MEXICO AS
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. FRESH TO STRONG
N-NW WINDS ARE FORECAST TO OVERTAKE THE GULF TONIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST THU MORNING AS A RESULT.

AN UPPER LOW LIES JUST W OF THE AREA NEAR 27N146W AND REFLECTS A
1019 MB LOW AT THE SURFACE NEAR 26N144W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM 30N145W THROUGH THE LOW TO 21N147W. NW SWELL FROM THIS
SYSTEM THAT MOVED INTO THE NW WATERS A FEW DAYS AGO IS MAKING
ITS WAY SOUTHEASTWARD...WITH PERIODS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
SWELL TRAIN IN THE 19-21 SECOND RANGE. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
SWELL IS CURRENTLY NEAR MANZANILLO MEXICO AND WILL LIE ALONG 95W
S OF 13N BY WED MORNING BEFORE MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD SW SWELL
E OF 95W. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE SW AND GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE...BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LINGERING
TROUGHING AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL KEEP FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO WED MORNING.
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ARE
CURRENTLY JUST W OF THE AREA AND E OF THE TROUGH N OF 27N. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL HUG NW WATERS TODAY BEFORE SHIFTING SW AND
DIMINISHING.

A MUCH EARLIER 0730 UTC OSCAT PASS SHOWED FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE WATERS N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 117W
AND 135W AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILT BETWEEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGHING OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA AND TROUGHING
OVER NW WATERS. LOOK FOR TRADES TO REMAIN UNCHANGED FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS AND THEN SHIFT WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD BY EARLY THU.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE MONSOON
TROUGH TO THE S AND RIDGING OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN HAS GENERATED
FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA AND
INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND
WESTWARD TO 89W THIS MORNING. RIDGING IN THE CARIBBEAN WILL
WEAKEN LATER TODAY...SLACKENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
DIMINISHING WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO.

$$
COBB

000
AXNT20 KNHC 121128
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE FEB 12 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
4N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
4N21W TO 2N30W TO 1N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
1S49W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE ITCZ
AXIS W OF 27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA TO THE
MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 240 NM N OF THE FRONT E OF 97W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
S OF THE FRONT HAS 10-15 KT SW SURFACE FLOW WITH MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE
GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 85W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE
GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A NEW 1006 MB LOW TO BE OVER S
ALABAMA WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW TO TAMPICO MEXICO WITH
SHOWERS. A WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE LOW EXTENDING E TO S
GEORGIA. MOST OF THE GULF WILL HAVE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY SURFACE
FLOW E OF THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
EXTEND FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO S OF PUERTO RICO TO S OF
HISPANIOLA TO JAMAICA. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER COSTA RICA AND
NICARAGUA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER
THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT...IN 24 HOURS FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N 78 TO JACKSONVILLE
FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1027
MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N59W. A COLD
FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N41W TO 21N50W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 25N BETWEEN 39W-43W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT
AND SHEAR LINE. A 1031 MB HIGH IS CENTERED SE OF THE AZORES NEAR
NEAR 37N22W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO
27N37W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-60W SUPPORTING THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC COLD FRONT. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT
TO CONTINUE TO MOVE E WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA

000
AXNT20 KNHC 121128
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE FEB 12 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
4N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
4N21W TO 2N30W TO 1N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
1S49W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE ITCZ
AXIS W OF 27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA TO THE
MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 240 NM N OF THE FRONT E OF 97W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
S OF THE FRONT HAS 10-15 KT SW SURFACE FLOW WITH MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE
GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 85W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE
GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A NEW 1006 MB LOW TO BE OVER S
ALABAMA WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW TO TAMPICO MEXICO WITH
SHOWERS. A WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE LOW EXTENDING E TO S
GEORGIA. MOST OF THE GULF WILL HAVE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY SURFACE
FLOW E OF THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
EXTEND FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO S OF PUERTO RICO TO S OF
HISPANIOLA TO JAMAICA. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER COSTA RICA AND
NICARAGUA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER
THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT...IN 24 HOURS FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N 78 TO JACKSONVILLE
FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1027
MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N59W. A COLD
FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N41W TO 21N50W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 25N BETWEEN 39W-43W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT
AND SHEAR LINE. A 1031 MB HIGH IS CENTERED SE OF THE AZORES NEAR
NEAR 37N22W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO
27N37W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-60W SUPPORTING THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC COLD FRONT. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT
TO CONTINUE TO MOVE E WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120932
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE FEB 12 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0700 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 01N79W TO 02N87W TO
06N92W TO 06N100W. ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 06N100W TO
04N108W TO 07N123W TO 03N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WAS
NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...
THE 120-140 KT WESTERLY UPPER JET IN PLACE FROM 20N140W TO NW
MEXICO WILL WEAKEN TODAY AND SHIFT NORTHWARD WED AS RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. TO
THE EAST...A STRONG AND ELONGATED SHORTWAVE SYSTEM LIES IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A MEAN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE
INTERIOR WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS ENERGY WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS
WAY INTO NW MEXICO TONIGHT AS A NEW SHORTWAVE SYSTEM ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE MEAN TROUGH APPROACHES NE FORECAST WATERS FROM
THE N. BOTH SYSTEM WILL MERGE WITH THE MEAN TROUGH BY THU. AS
FIRST SHORTWAVE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND TONIGHT...WEAK SURFACE
TROUGHING IN NE WATERS AND ALONG THE BAJA PENINSULA WILL
STRENGTHEN AND MOVE INTO NW MAINLAND MEXICO AS THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD. THIS WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. FRESH TO STRONG N-NW WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO OVERTAKE THE GULF OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
THU MORNING AS A RESULT.

AN UPPER LOW LIES JUST W OF THE AREA NEAR 29N145W AND REFLECTS A
1019 MB LOW AT THE SURFACE NEAR 28N143W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM 30N143W THROUGH THE LOW TO 23N146W. NW SWELL FROM THIS
SYSTEM THAT MOVE INTO NW WATERS A FEW DAYS AGO IS MAKING ITS WAY
SOUTHEASTWARD...WITH PERIODS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SWELL IN
THE 19-21 SECOND RANGE. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SWELL IS
CURRENTLY NEAR MANZANILLO MEXICO AND WILL LIE ALONG 95W S OF 13N
BY WED MORNING BEFORE MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD SW SWELL E OF 95W.
THE 0706 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWS STRONG SE WINDS N OF 25N ALONG
140W ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SCATTEROMETER SWATH. THESE WINDS
ARE BELIEVED TO EXTEND TO AT LEAST 138W IN THE NW CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE SW AND GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE...BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LINGERING
TROUGHING AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL KEEP FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO WED MORNING.
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ARE
CURRENTLY JUST W OF THE AREA AND E OF THE TROUGH N OF 27N. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL HUG NW WATERS TODAY BEFORE SHIFTING SW AND
DIMINISHING.

THE 0524 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWS FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS HAVE
RETURNED TO WATERS N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 120W AND 135W AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILT BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGHING
OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA AND TROUGHING OVER NW WATERS. LOOK FOR
TRADES TO REMAIN UNCHANGED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN SHIFT
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD BY EARLY THU.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE MONSOON
TROUGH TO THE S AND RIDGING OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN HAS GENERATED
FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA AND
INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THE 0340 UTC ASCAT PASS CAPTURED
THESE WINDS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND WESTWARD TO 89W THIS
MORNING. RIDGING IN THE CARIBBEAN WILL WEAKEN LATER
TODAY...SLACKENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DIMINISHING WINDS
IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO.

$
SCHAUER

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120932
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE FEB 12 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0700 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 01N79W TO 02N87W TO
06N92W TO 06N100W. ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 06N100W TO
04N108W TO 07N123W TO 03N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WAS
NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...
THE 120-140 KT WESTERLY UPPER JET IN PLACE FROM 20N140W TO NW
MEXICO WILL WEAKEN TODAY AND SHIFT NORTHWARD WED AS RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. TO
THE EAST...A STRONG AND ELONGATED SHORTWAVE SYSTEM LIES IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A MEAN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE
INTERIOR WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS ENERGY WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS
WAY INTO NW MEXICO TONIGHT AS A NEW SHORTWAVE SYSTEM ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE MEAN TROUGH APPROACHES NE FORECAST WATERS FROM
THE N. BOTH SYSTEM WILL MERGE WITH THE MEAN TROUGH BY THU. AS
FIRST SHORTWAVE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND TONIGHT...WEAK SURFACE
TROUGHING IN NE WATERS AND ALONG THE BAJA PENINSULA WILL
STRENGTHEN AND MOVE INTO NW MAINLAND MEXICO AS THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD. THIS WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. FRESH TO STRONG N-NW WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO OVERTAKE THE GULF OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
THU MORNING AS A RESULT.

AN UPPER LOW LIES JUST W OF THE AREA NEAR 29N145W AND REFLECTS A
1019 MB LOW AT THE SURFACE NEAR 28N143W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM 30N143W THROUGH THE LOW TO 23N146W. NW SWELL FROM THIS
SYSTEM THAT MOVE INTO NW WATERS A FEW DAYS AGO IS MAKING ITS WAY
SOUTHEASTWARD...WITH PERIODS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SWELL IN
THE 19-21 SECOND RANGE. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SWELL IS
CURRENTLY NEAR MANZANILLO MEXICO AND WILL LIE ALONG 95W S OF 13N
BY WED MORNING BEFORE MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD SW SWELL E OF 95W.
THE 0706 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWS STRONG SE WINDS N OF 25N ALONG
140W ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SCATTEROMETER SWATH. THESE WINDS
ARE BELIEVED TO EXTEND TO AT LEAST 138W IN THE NW CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE SW AND GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE...BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LINGERING
TROUGHING AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL KEEP FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO WED MORNING.
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ARE
CURRENTLY JUST W OF THE AREA AND E OF THE TROUGH N OF 27N. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL HUG NW WATERS TODAY BEFORE SHIFTING SW AND
DIMINISHING.

THE 0524 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWS FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS HAVE
RETURNED TO WATERS N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 120W AND 135W AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILT BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGHING
OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA AND TROUGHING OVER NW WATERS. LOOK FOR
TRADES TO REMAIN UNCHANGED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN SHIFT
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD BY EARLY THU.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE MONSOON
TROUGH TO THE S AND RIDGING OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN HAS GENERATED
FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA AND
INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THE 0340 UTC ASCAT PASS CAPTURED
THESE WINDS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND WESTWARD TO 89W THIS
MORNING. RIDGING IN THE CARIBBEAN WILL WEAKEN LATER
TODAY...SLACKENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DIMINISHING WINDS
IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO.

$
SCHAUER

000
AXNT20 KNHC 120520
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE FEB 12 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
4N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
4N21W TO 2N30W TO 1N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
1S48W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE ITCZ
AXIS W OF 25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA NEAR 30N84W TO SE LOUISIANA
NEAR 29N90W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO THE NW GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 28N95W AND ENDS NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AT 26N97W.
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 240 NM N OF THE FRONT E OF 95W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
S OF THE FRONT HAS 10-15 KT SW SURFACE FLOW WITH MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE
GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 85W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE
GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A NEW 1006 MB LOW TO BE OVER S
ALABAMA WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW TO TAMPICO MEXICO WITH
SHOWERS. A WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE LOW EXTENDING E TO S
GEORGIA. MOST OF THE GULF WILL HAVE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY SURFACE
FLOW E OF THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF PUERTO RICO FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 64W-69W.
SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 17N E OF 64W.
MORE SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND HISPANIOLA
MOVING W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT...IN 24 HOURS FOR
SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N64W. A
COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N42W TO 23N50W. A
SHEAR LINE CONTINUES TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 19N60W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 25N BETWEEN 40W-45W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT
AND SHEAR LINE. A 1032 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE AZORES NEAR
37N23W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO 25N40W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-60W SUPPORTING THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC COLD FRONT. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT
TO CONTINUE TO MOVE E WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120340
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE FEB 12 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 00N80W TO 06N92W TO 06N100W THEN ITCZ AXIS
TO 04N108W TO 07N122W TO 05N129W TO 06N132W THEN CONTINUES FROM
05N134W TO 04N140W.  NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM DEEP LAYER CYCLONE IN CENTRAL ROCKIES
ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...THEN SW TO 28N128W TO 32N135W.
SHARP RIDGE CREST EMERGES ALONG 32N138W FROM UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE AT 09N130W.  RIDGE BLOCKS EASTERN INTRUSION OF WELL
STACKED DEEP LAYER CYCLONE WHICH THEN DROPS S FROM 30N144W
SUPPORTING A SURFACE LOW PRES CENTER AT 31N145W AND COLD FRONT
THAT EXTEND TO 30N142W TO 24N145W.  MODEL GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS
WEAKENS CYCLONE QUICKLY AND OPENS IT INTO A TROUGH LATE WED
EFFECTIVELY STALLING FRONT JUST W OF 140W.  WHILE NOT FEELING
THE FULL IMPACT OF LOW PRES CENTER NOR ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT...NW
CORNER OF BASIN IS EXPECTED TO SEE AN INCREASE IN SE WIND SPEEDS
WITH CONFUSED SEAS BUILDING TO 12-13 FT IN SE WAVES AND LARGE NW
SWELLS.

SECOND ANTICYCLONE...THIS ONE OVER HONDURAS...PROVIDES MOIST
TROPICAL MOISTURE TO MONSOON TROUGH E OF 101W WHILE REMAINING
REGION E OF 130W REMAINS VERY DRY AND STABLE.

...ELSEWHERE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
VIGOROUS HIGH PRES CENTER 1035 MB WELL N OF AREA BUILDS RIDGE SE
TO 13N97W.  LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL PROPAGATE ACROSS BASIN W
OF 110W REACHING AS FAR S AS THE EQUATOR BY END OF PERIOD.  PRES
GRADIENT S OF RIDGE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH NE
BREEZE ACROSS BASIN N OF ITCZ W OF 110W.

STRENGTHENING SURFACE TROUGH ALONG CENTRAL MEXICO ENHANCES FRESH
TO STRONG NW WINDS OVER GULF OF CALIFORNIA LATE TUE WITH
FUNNELING SEAS REACHING 9 FT IN SOUTHERN FRINGES OF GULF BY END
OF FORECAST PERIOD.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...INCREASED NE TRADES THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA
ENHANCE FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE IN GULF OF PAPAGAYO.  WINDS PULSE
BETWEEN STRONG BREEZE THROUGH EARLY MORNINGS...WHEN DRAINAGE
FLOW OFF MOUNTAINS IS AT A MAXIMUM...TO A FRESH BREEZE WHEN THE
SEABREEZE COUNTERS EASTERLIES.  SEAS BUILD UP TO 8 FT WITH
STRONG WINDS.  POSSIBLE WEAKENING OF TRADES LATE WED MAY
DIMINISH WINDS BEYOND FORECAST PERIOD.

$
WALLY BARNES

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120340
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE FEB 12 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 00N80W TO 06N92W TO 06N100W THEN ITCZ AXIS
TO 04N108W TO 07N122W TO 05N129W TO 06N132W THEN CONTINUES FROM
05N134W TO 04N140W.  NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM DEEP LAYER CYCLONE IN CENTRAL ROCKIES
ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...THEN SW TO 28N128W TO 32N135W.
SHARP RIDGE CREST EMERGES ALONG 32N138W FROM UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE AT 09N130W.  RIDGE BLOCKS EASTERN INTRUSION OF WELL
STACKED DEEP LAYER CYCLONE WHICH THEN DROPS S FROM 30N144W
SUPPORTING A SURFACE LOW PRES CENTER AT 31N145W AND COLD FRONT
THAT EXTEND TO 30N142W TO 24N145W.  MODEL GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS
WEAKENS CYCLONE QUICKLY AND OPENS IT INTO A TROUGH LATE WED
EFFECTIVELY STALLING FRONT JUST W OF 140W.  WHILE NOT FEELING
THE FULL IMPACT OF LOW PRES CENTER NOR ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT...NW
CORNER OF BASIN IS EXPECTED TO SEE AN INCREASE IN SE WIND SPEEDS
WITH CONFUSED SEAS BUILDING TO 12-13 FT IN SE WAVES AND LARGE NW
SWELLS.

SECOND ANTICYCLONE...THIS ONE OVER HONDURAS...PROVIDES MOIST
TROPICAL MOISTURE TO MONSOON TROUGH E OF 101W WHILE REMAINING
REGION E OF 130W REMAINS VERY DRY AND STABLE.

...ELSEWHERE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
VIGOROUS HIGH PRES CENTER 1035 MB WELL N OF AREA BUILDS RIDGE SE
TO 13N97W.  LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL PROPAGATE ACROSS BASIN W
OF 110W REACHING AS FAR S AS THE EQUATOR BY END OF PERIOD.  PRES
GRADIENT S OF RIDGE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH NE
BREEZE ACROSS BASIN N OF ITCZ W OF 110W.

STRENGTHENING SURFACE TROUGH ALONG CENTRAL MEXICO ENHANCES FRESH
TO STRONG NW WINDS OVER GULF OF CALIFORNIA LATE TUE WITH
FUNNELING SEAS REACHING 9 FT IN SOUTHERN FRINGES OF GULF BY END
OF FORECAST PERIOD.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...INCREASED NE TRADES THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA
ENHANCE FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE IN GULF OF PAPAGAYO.  WINDS PULSE
BETWEEN STRONG BREEZE THROUGH EARLY MORNINGS...WHEN DRAINAGE
FLOW OFF MOUNTAINS IS AT A MAXIMUM...TO A FRESH BREEZE WHEN THE
SEABREEZE COUNTERS EASTERLIES.  SEAS BUILD UP TO 8 FT WITH
STRONG WINDS.  POSSIBLE WEAKENING OF TRADES LATE WED MAY
DIMINISH WINDS BEYOND FORECAST PERIOD.

$
WALLY BARNES

000
AXNT20 KNHC 112351
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON FEB 11 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
05N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
05N21W TO 02N26W TO 01N35W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 42W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-07N BETWEEN 47W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN A
LARGER UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING...BUT OVERALL
ATMOSPHERIC TROUGHING ALOFT IS NOTED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF FROM 30N87W TO 29N92W TO
27N96W WHERE THE BOUNDARY BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHERN TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR
IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT OVER A
MAJORITY OF THE SE CONUS. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC IS
PROVIDING FOR SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20
KT. SKIES REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR WITH CLOUDINESS INCREASING IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO BECOME
STATIONARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS AND LIFT NORTHWARD AS
A WARM FRONT BY LATE TUESDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE SE CONUS INTO
WEDNESDAY. WITH CYCLOGENESIS ANTICIPATED...THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST
LATE TUESDAY INTRODUCING NORTHERLY WINDS IN WAKE OF THE FRONT
FOR THE NW AND WEST-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING VERY DRY AIR AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE KEEPING SKIES FAIR AND CONDITIONS TRANQUIL ACROSS A
MAJORITY OF THE BASIN THIS EVENING. THE EXCEPTION TO AN OVERALL
QUIET EVENING IS THE PRESENCE OF A SHEAR LINE ANALYZED FROM THE
CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 20N60W TO 19N66W TO EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N76W.
THE SHEAR LINE IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS N
OF 17N BETWEEN 60W-78W....INCLUDING PUERTO RICO...THE US/UK
VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA. OTHERWISE...TRADES
REMAIN BRISK IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT WITH HIGHER SPEEDS
FORECAST IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. LOOKING
AHEAD...THE SHEAR LINE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD AND
BECOME DIFFUSE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WHILE CONTINUING TO
PROVIDE INCREASED PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS FROM OVER CENTRAL AMERICA
NEAR 15N87W NORTHEASTWARD TO BEYOND 32N71W IN THE SW NORTH ATLC.
THE RIDGING IS PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR A 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED WEST OF BERMUDA NEAR 33N67W. FAIR SKIES AND CONDITIONS
ARE NOTED N OF 20N W OF 55W IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE HIGH.
FARTHER EAST...AN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG
49W DIPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC AND SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N44W TO 24N52W WHICH THEN BECOMES A SHEAR
LINE TO 20N60W TO 19N66W TO EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N76W. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
COLD FRONT AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SHEAR LINE. A
PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE COLD
FRONT FROM 16N50W TO 26N47W AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 14N-26N BETWEEN 44W-51W. OTHERWISE THE
REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED EAST OF THE AZORES NEAR
38N24W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN

000
AXNT20 KNHC 112351
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON FEB 11 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
05N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
05N21W TO 02N26W TO 01N35W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 42W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-07N BETWEEN 47W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN A
LARGER UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING...BUT OVERALL
ATMOSPHERIC TROUGHING ALOFT IS NOTED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF FROM 30N87W TO 29N92W TO
27N96W WHERE THE BOUNDARY BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHERN TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR
IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT OVER A
MAJORITY OF THE SE CONUS. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC IS
PROVIDING FOR SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20
KT. SKIES REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR WITH CLOUDINESS INCREASING IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO BECOME
STATIONARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS AND LIFT NORTHWARD AS
A WARM FRONT BY LATE TUESDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE SE CONUS INTO
WEDNESDAY. WITH CYCLOGENESIS ANTICIPATED...THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST
LATE TUESDAY INTRODUCING NORTHERLY WINDS IN WAKE OF THE FRONT
FOR THE NW AND WEST-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING VERY DRY AIR AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE KEEPING SKIES FAIR AND CONDITIONS TRANQUIL ACROSS A
MAJORITY OF THE BASIN THIS EVENING. THE EXCEPTION TO AN OVERALL
QUIET EVENING IS THE PRESENCE OF A SHEAR LINE ANALYZED FROM THE
CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 20N60W TO 19N66W TO EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N76W.
THE SHEAR LINE IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS N
OF 17N BETWEEN 60W-78W....INCLUDING PUERTO RICO...THE US/UK
VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA. OTHERWISE...TRADES
REMAIN BRISK IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT WITH HIGHER SPEEDS
FORECAST IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. LOOKING
AHEAD...THE SHEAR LINE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD AND
BECOME DIFFUSE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WHILE CONTINUING TO
PROVIDE INCREASED PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS FROM OVER CENTRAL AMERICA
NEAR 15N87W NORTHEASTWARD TO BEYOND 32N71W IN THE SW NORTH ATLC.
THE RIDGING IS PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR A 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED WEST OF BERMUDA NEAR 33N67W. FAIR SKIES AND CONDITIONS
ARE NOTED N OF 20N W OF 55W IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE HIGH.
FARTHER EAST...AN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG
49W DIPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC AND SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N44W TO 24N52W WHICH THEN BECOMES A SHEAR
LINE TO 20N60W TO 19N66W TO EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N76W. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
COLD FRONT AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SHEAR LINE. A
PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE COLD
FRONT FROM 16N50W TO 26N47W AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 14N-26N BETWEEN 44W-51W. OTHERWISE THE
REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED EAST OF THE AZORES NEAR
38N24W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN