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Joinpoint Regression Program

Latest Release: Version 4.0.1 (January 9, 2013)

Joinpoint is statistical software for the analysis of trends using joinpoint models, that is, models like the figure below where several different lines are connected together at the "joinpoints". Cancer trends reported in NCI publications are calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program to analyze rates calculated by the SEER*StatExternal Web Site Policy software. Methods & Software for Population-based Cancer Statistics shows the relationship of the Joinpoint Regression Program to SEER*Stat and other statistical methods and tools.

Sample Joinpoint Graph

Sample Joinpoint Graph

The software takes trend data (e.g. cancer rates) and fits the simplest joinpoint model that the data allow. The user supplies the minimum and maximum number of joinpoints. The program starts with the minimum number of joinpoint (e.g. 0 joinpoints, which is a straight line) and tests whether more joinpoints are statistically significant and must be added to the model (up to that maximum number). This enables the user to test that an apparent change in trend is statistically significant. The tests of significance use a Monte Carlo Permutation method. The models may incorporate estimated variation for each point (e.g. when the responses are age adjusted rates) or use a Poisson model of variation. In addition, the models may also be linear on the log of the response (e.g. for calculating annual percentage rate change). The software also allows viewing one graph for each joinpoint model, from the model with the minimum number of joinpoints to the model with maximum number of joinpoints. For details see:

Kim HJ, Fay MP, Feuer EJ, Midthune DN. Permutation tests for joinpoint regression with applications to cancer rates. Stat Med 2000;19:335-51 (correction: 2001;20:655).

Correction to Table 1(a) of Kim, et al. is provided as a PDF. Other references are available in the online help system.

To request a reprint, e-mail the SRP staff.