Released: April 26, 2011

Petroleum projections to 2035.

Released: November 18, 2010

Paper explores the potential for U.S. refiners to create more distillate and less gasoline without major additional investments beyond those already planned.

Released: March 11, 2008

This presentation describes the projections for petroleum-based gasoline and distillate in the Update AEO 2008, which includes the impacts of the Energy Independence and Security Act.

Released: April 19, 2007

A presentation exploring the factors driving higher prices, margins, and light-heavy price differentials in today's market, and what these observations may imply about future profitability in the refining industry.

Released: March 27, 2007

This report responds to a July 13, 2006 request from Chairman Jeff Bingaman of the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources requested that EIA conduct a study of the impact that refinery shutdowns have had on the price of oil and gasoline.

Released: February 22, 2007

Costs related to the construction industry have been volatile in recent years. Some of the volatility may be related to higher energy prices. Prices for iron and steel, cement, and concretecommodities used heavily in the construction of new energy projects rose sharply from 2004 to 2006, and shortages have been reported. How such price fluctuations may affect the cost or pace of new development in the energy industries is not known with any certainty, and short-term changes in commodity prices are not accounted for in the 25-year projections in AEO2007. Most projects in the energy industries require long planning and construction lead times, which can lessen the impacts of short-term trends.

Released: February 1, 2006

There have been some major changes in the U.S. refining industry recently, prompted in part by a significant decline in the quality of imported crude oil and by increasing restrictions on the quality of finished products. As a result, high-quality crudes, such as the WTI crude that serves as a benchmark for oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), have been trading at record premiums to the OPEC Basket price.

Released: March 14, 2005

A presentation to the NPRA Annual Meeting discussing the major factors that drove petroleum prices, price differentials, and margins in 2004, and what this might mean for refiners as we look towards the future.

Released: July 15, 2004

Presented by: Guy F. Caruso, EIA Administrator Presented to: Subcommittee on Energy and Air Quality Committee on Energy and Commerce U.S. House of Representatives Washington, DC July 15, 2004

Released: May 1, 2004

In October 2003, EIA published a review of the status of the methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) ban transition in New York (NY) and Connecticut (CT) that noted significant uncertainties in gasoline supply for those States for the summer of 2004. To obtain updated information, EIA spoke to major suppliers to the two States over the past several months as the petroleum industry began the switch from winter- to summer-grade gasoline.

Released: February 1, 2004

This service report was undertaken at the February 2, 2004, request of Senator John Sununu to perform an assessment of the Conference Energy Bill of 2003. This report summarizes the CEB provisions that can be analyzed using the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) and have the potential to affect energy consumption, supply, and prices. The impacts are estimated by comparing the projections with the CEB provisions to the AEO2004 Reference Case.

Released: October 1, 2003

In response to a Congressional request, EIA examined the progress being made to meet the bans on the use of methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) being implemented in New York and Connecticut at the end of 2003.

Released: October 1, 2002

Presented by: Joanne Shore Presented to: OPIS National Supply Summit San Antonio, Texas October 2002

Released: September 1, 2002

This paper analyzes the supply impacts of removing MTBE from gasoline.

Released: September 1, 2002

This paper focuses on the potential effect/role of implementation of a national menu of fuels to address the proliferation of boutique fuels.

Released: September 1, 2002

This paper provides background on the 1-pound waiver and how It can affect gasoline volumes.

Released: September 1, 2002

This paper focuses on the impact on gasoline price and supply when additional ozone non-attainment areas come under the new 8-hour ozone standard.

Released: September 1, 2002

This paper analyzes renewable motor fuel production capacity with the assumption that ethanol will be used to meet the renewable fuels standard.

Released: September 1, 2002

This paper analyzes the inter-regional transportation issues and associated costs for increased distribution of renewable fuels with the assumption that ethanol will be used to meet the standards.

Released: March 12, 2002

This service report addresses the Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS)/methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) provisions of S. 1766. The 'S. 1766' Case reflects provisions of S. 1766 including a renewable fuels standard (RFS) reaching five billion gallons by 2012, a complete phase-out of MTBE within four years, and the option for States to waive the oxygen requirement for reformulated gasoline (RFG).

Released: August 11, 2000

Presented by: Neal Davis Presented to: Valve Manufacturers Association of America Chicago, IL August 10-11, 2000

Released: August 1, 1999

This article presents projections of demand and the market price premium for Phase 2 RFG in the year 2000. The projections in this article are based on forecasts in the Short-Term Energy Outlook, which is published monthly by the Energy Information Administration.

Released: March 10, 1999

Presented by: Jay E. Hakes, EIA Administrator Washington, DC March 10, 1999

Released: June 1, 1998

Changes in domestic refining operations are identified and related to the summer Reid vapor pressure (RVP) restrictions and oxygenate blending requirements. This analysis uses published EIA survey data and linear regression equations from the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS). The STIFS model is used for producing forecasts appearing in the Short-Term Energy Outlook.

Released: March 1, 1998

The blending of oxygenates, such as fuel ethanol and methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE), into motor gasoline has increased dramatically in the last few years because of the oxygenated and reformulated gasoline programs. Because of the significant role oxygenates now have in petroleum product markets, the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) was revised to include supply and demand balances for fuel ethanol and MTBE. The STIFS model is used for producing forecasts in the Short-Term Energy Outlook. A review of the historical data sources and forecasting methodology for oxygenate production, imports, inventories, and demand is presented in this report.

Released: January 2, 1998

On August 27, 1997, the EPA promulgated revised the rules that allow foreign refiners to establish and use individual baselines, but it would not be mandatory (the optional use of an individual refinery baseline is not available to domestic refiners.) If a foreign refiner did not establish and use an individual baseline, the gasoline they export to the U.S. would be regulated through the importer, and subject to the importer's baseline (most likely the statutory baseline). Specific regulatory provisions are implemented to ensure that the option to use an individual baseline would not lead to adverse environmental impacts. This involves monitoring the average quality of imported gasoline, and if a specified benchmark is exceeded, remedial action would be taken by adjusting the requirements applicable to imported gasoline.

Released: January 2, 1998

On January 1, 1998, domestic and foreign refineries and importers must stop using the "simple" model and begin using the "complex" model to calculate emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOC), toxic air pollutants (TAP), and nitrogen oxides (NOx) from motor gasoline. The primary differences between application of the two models is that some refineries may have to meet stricter standards for the sulfur and olefin content of the reformulated gasoline (RFG) they produce and all refineries will now be held accountable for NOx emissions. Requirements for calculating emissions from conventional gasoline under the anti-dumping rule similarly change for exhaust TAP and NOx. However, the change to the complex model is not expected to result in an increase in the price premium for RFG or constrain supplies.