Sections on this page:
Summary: view tutorials and choose graphing tools to see simulation results
The simulation models were run with various sets of inputs—values for risk factor behavior, screening compliance and chemotherapy treatment. In this section you can view the results in terms of the projected mortality from colorectal cancer (CRC) through 2020 and the improvement over a baseline.
For a baseline, we chose to use projected trends for all input values, derived from their recent trends. These were calculated separately for each race and sex group. Note that in many cases, maintaining the current trend is, in itself, an ambitious goal that will take continued effort.
You can compare projected trends inputs against a scenario called Optimistic but Realistic goals, which represent a plausible improvement over the current trend if more resources are brought to bear. You can also see the results if Healthy People 2010 objectives relating to risk factors and/or CRC screening were achieved. Healthy People 2010 goals, by design, eliminate racial and gender disparities.
The results you see when comparing scenarios and race/sex combinations are the average of the results from two simulation models. To see the actual MISCAN and SimCRC model results, you can compare the two models.
Explore the Simulation Results
There are currently three ways to view and compare results of the colorectal cancer mortality projections:
- Compare Intervention Scenarios - compare the impact of up to four intervention scenarios on a single data set (race/sex combination). See the tutorial, Comparing Risk Factors vs. Screening vs. Chemotherapy (Flash - 2:15 min.).
- Compare between Race and Sex Combinations - compare the projected effects interventions will have on different race and sex combinations. See the tutorial, Comparing Race and Gender Groups (Flash - 2:10 min.).
- Compare Mortality Projection Models - compare the results from the two simulation modeling efforts, the MISCAN and SimCRC models.
Also, see the tutorial on the assumptions underlying the models, Inputs to the Models (Flash - 3:00 min).
How to Use the Interactive Graphs
The interactive tools allow you to create charts and graphs by selecting a data set and up to four input scenarios. Each chart starts with the projected trends baseline for the selected data set. Exactly how data are displayed depends on the tool you are using.
1. Compare Intervention Scenarios
Use this option to compare the impact on future colorectal cancer mortality rates of meeting Optimistic but Realistic and Healthy People 2010 goals for cancer control interventions. The impact is measured against the Projected Trends baseline (where current trends in risk factors, screening, and chemotherapy continue at the current pace). The results displayed within this graphing tool are the combined average of the results of the two simulation models.
Up to four intervention scenarios are graphed for a single data set (race/sex combination). Results are presented as two graphs, side-by-side: one shows the predicted colorectal cancer mortality rates through 2020 for the selected model runs and baseline; and the other shows the percent difference in mortality rates between the selected model run(s) and the baseline.
2. Compare between Race and Sex Combinations
Use this option to compare the projected effects of interventions on colorectal cancer mortality on different race and sex groups. The results displayed within this graphing tool are the combined average of the results of the two simulation models.
Selections can be made to compare two sex/race combinations for up to four intervention scenarios. Results for both sex/race groups are presented for one scenario at a time in two formats: one shows predicted CRC mortality through 2020 for both selected race/sex combinations; the other shows the percent difference in mortality rates between the selected scenario and the baseline for each race/sex combination.
3. Compare Mortality Projection Models
Use this option to compare the results of the two simulation modeling efforts. Specifically, see the MISCAN model's percent difference from its baseline compared to the SimCRC model's percent difference from baseline for each model run.
Up to four intervention scenarios are graphed for a single sex/race combination. A bar chart will display the percent difference from baseline for each model for one scenario at a time. Below the chart there will be two line graphs side-by-side, one for MISCAN and one for SimCRC, charting the results from up to four selected model runs.
Graph and Data File Formats
When you make selections within the interactive graphing tools, the graphs and charts will be created dynamically. Age-adjusted mortality rates are expressed as deaths per 100,000.
Scale for Graphs:
- Scale based on data range - The scale of the y-axis will adjust to fit the data plotted based on the selected scenario(s). This can make changes in mortality over time easier to see within a single graph.
- Constant Scale - The scale of the y-axis will remain constant as scenario selections change. Use this option to assist in making comparisons between graphs.
Display Format options:
- Image - Depending on your browser settings, this will either be Flash (an animated graphic format), or JPEG (a common image format). Regardless of the format your browser uses, hovering over any point on the graph reveals the data values associated with that point or line.
- Table - When the table option is selected, the underlining data for the graphs are displayed on the Web page in tabular format.
Output Results options:
- Export Data - The data used to generate the graphs will be downloaded as a comma separated file (CSV) for use in other applications such as Microsoft Excel.
- Save Image - The graphs and associated legends will be downloaded as a single image for use in your own papers or presentations.