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National Cancer Institute U.S. National Institutes of Health
Colorectal Cancer Mortality Projections: Modeling the impact of interventions on US cancer mortality

About Us

We are part of the Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET), a consortium of NCI-sponsored investigators whose focus is to use simulation modeling to improve our understanding of the impact of cancer control interventions (e.g., prevention, screening, treatment) on population trends in cancer incidence and mortality. These models are also used to project future trends, and to explore the impact of various cancer control strategies. We hope they will aid policy planning at the state and national levels.

CISNET grants are funding modeling of breast, colorectal, lung, and prostate cancers. The consortium gives us the ability to compare different, independently-constructed models. This improves the credibility of the models and gives us a broader network for analysis of model inputs.

This site presents results from two of our colorectal cancer models, quantitatively linking goals for risk factors, screening and chemotherapy to the goal of reducing cancer mortality. The two models are: SimCRC, which is based at the University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN and Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts; and MISCAN, which is a collaboration between Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, New York, NY and Erasmus MC, the Netherlands. One focus of our modeling project has been to review relevant Healthy People 2010 objectives. This work was completed in 2005 and has not been currently updated. Although the projections themselves are out of date, they are still instructive with respect to the relative magnitude of the impact of different cancer control interventions on mortality.

Modeling is the use of mathematical and statistical techniques within a logical framework to integrate and synthesize known biological, epidemiological, clinical, behavioral, genetic and economic information. The goal of CISNET is to use population-based modeling to ascertain determinants of cancer trends. This information is critical to understanding if recommended interventions are having their expected population impact, and predicting the potential impact of new interventions on national trends. Models are increasingly being used to inform public health policy decisions at the national level. One of the major accomplishments of CISNET to date has been building an infrastructure for the comparative analysis of population-based models to answer important policy-based questions. See the CISNET Model Profiles for standardized descriptions of the simulation models.

Modeling for Healthy People 2010

Healthy People 2010 (HP 2010) is the Department of Health and Human Services blueprint for achieving the Nation’s health goals to increase quality and years of healthy life and eliminate health disparities. CISNET modelers were asked to aid in a mid-course (2005) evaluation to help determine if reaching HP 2010 objectives for cancer screening and prevention (upstream objectives) would enable the Nation to meet or exceed the 2010 cancer mortality objective (downstream objective). This effort could help target the upstream factors that have the most potential for influencing mortality.

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