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U.S. National Institutes of Health National Cancer Institute

US Predicted Cancer Incidence, 1999: Complete Maps by County and State from Spatial Projection Models

The results presented in this report are computed by a spatial projection model that predicts the number of cases in each county based on the sociodemographic and lifestyle profile for that county. The purpose is to present, for the first time, complete county and state maps and tables of rates and case counts for 1999 estimated by these new statistical models. From a national perspective, the maps included in the report allow examination of the geographic distribution of cancer incidence across the country and of the magnitude of differences among states. Estimates of the numbers of new cancer cases and rates expected in an area are useful for cancer surveillance, cancer control, health resource planning, and quality control activities.

Download the Report

The complete monograph in one file as well as individual sections in separate files are provided below in PDF format. You may use the PDFs to view or print the report. A printed copy of the book will be available at the end of November. The following files are in PDF format:

Suggested Citation

Pickle LW, Feuer EJ, Edwards BK. US Predicted Cancer Incidence, 1999: Complete Maps by County and State From Spatial Projection Models. NCI Cancer Surveillance Monograph Series, Number 5. Bethesda, MD: National Cancer Institute, 2003. NIH Publication No. 03-5435.

Statistical Methods

The following article provides detail on the parameter estimation methods and validation studies.

Pickle LW, Feuer EJ, Edwards BK. Predicting cancer incidence in non-SEER counties. Proceedings of the Biometrics Section of the 2000 Annual Meeting of the American Statistical Association, 2001; 45-52. [View PDF]

Data Sources

The data sources used to calculate US predicted cancer incidence rates include:

  • Incidence data reported by the SEER cancer registries (480 counties) as first diagnosed during 1999 for lung and bronchus, colon and rectum, female breast, and prostate analyzed separately, all other cancer types combined.
  • Mortality data provided by the National Center for Health StatisticsExternal Web Site Policy for all 3074 US counties. Stratified rates for death due to lung and bronchus, colorectal, breast, prostate, and other cancer were used as predictors of incidence for those cancers.
  • Population intercensal estimates for 1999, modified after the 2000 Census, provided by the Census BureauExternal Web Site Policy.
  • Sociodemographic variables constructed using the Area Resource File (Bureau of Health ProfessionsExternal Web Site Policy 1999), Census data (GeoLytics Inc.External Web Site Policy 1998), and public-use data for 1992-1998 from the CDC Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS)External Web Site Policy surveys.

Other Resources

  • Currently, the only other source of complete estimates of expected case counts and rates by state is the American Cancer Society's annual report Cancer Facts and FiguresExternal Web Site Policy.
  • For a list of sources of cancer incidence statistics see Where can I find Cancer Incidence Statistics?External Web Site Policy on the Surveillance Research Program web site.
  • The Surveillance Research Program also developed the delay modelExternal Web Site Policy to adjust cancer incidence rates for reporting delay, the time elapsed before a diagnosed cancer case is reported to the NCI.