Risk Factor Model Inputs through 2020

Percent Engaging in Moderate or Vigorous Physical Activty(1)

Black Males, Ages 25-74(2)

Projected moderate-vigorous physical activty trend (2005-2020) (Line)
XY
200436.9
200536.79
200636.5
200736.29
200836.1
200935.9
201035.69
201135.5
201235.19
201334.9
201434.69
201534.4
201634.1
201733.9
201833.7
201933.4
202033.2
Healthy People 2010 goal met (3) (Line)
XY
200436.95
200538.06
200639.47
200741.32
200843.38
200946.75
201050.49
201150.05
201249.53
201348.8
201447.85
201546.69
201646.16
201745.52
201844.78
201944.15
202043.53
Optimistic but realistic goal (3) (Line)
XY
200436.9
200537.1
200637.29
200737.5
200837.5
200937.6
201037.6
201137.6
201237.6
201337.6
201437.7
201537.7
201637.79
201738
201838.1
201938.29
202038.4
Moderate-vigorous physical activty trend (1970-2004) (Line)
XY
197036.6
197136.7
197236.79
197336.6
197436.6
197536.7
197636.9
197737
197837.1
197937.29
198037.5
198137.7
198237.9
198338
198438.2
198538.29
198638.4
198738.5
198838.6
198938.6
199038.6
199138.5
199238.5
199338.4
199438.2
199538.1
199638
199738
199837.9
199937.79
200037.7
200137.5
200237.29
200337.1
200436.9
NHANES data (Scatter)
XScale label
198936%
199337.1%
199930.4%
200132.1%
Healthy People 2010 U.S. Target (Scatter)
XScale label
201050%

 

Footnotes:

(1) Healthy People 2010 defines regular moderate activity as 30 or more minutes of light or moderate physical activity 5 or more times per week and regular vigorous activity as 20 or more minutes of vigorous activity 3 or more times per week. The CISNET-Colon models measure physical activity in MET-hours per week. Using this measure, moderate activity is defined as 7.2+ MET-hours per week.

(2) Age adjusted to the 2000 standard population using age groups 25-34y, 34-44y, 45-64y, 65-74y.

(3) Age-specific trends applied after the year 2010 (no period trends).