Risk Factor Model Inputs through 2020

Percent Engaging in No Leisure-time Physical Activity(1)

Black Males, Ages 25-74(2)

Projected no leisure-time physical activity trend (2005-2020) (Line)
XY
200442.2
200543
200643.6
200744.2
200844.8
200945.4
201046
201146.7
201247.3
201348
201448.7
201549.3
201649.9
201750.5
201851.1
201951.6
202052.1
Healthy People 2010 goal met (3) (Line)
XY
200442.25
200537.57
200633.75
200727.24
200823.88
200921.55
201019.5
201119.25
201219.03
201318.79
201418.62
201518.54
201618.43
201718.31
201818.41
201918.3
202018.23
Optimistic but realistic goal (3) (Line)
XY
200442.2
200542.2
200642
200741.7
200841.6
200941.5
201041.4
201141.2
201240.9
201340.5
201440.1
201539.6
201639.2
201738.7
201838.2
201937.6
202037.1
No leisure-time physical activity trend (1970-2004) (Line)
XY
197040.9
197140.3
197239.7
197339.1
197438.6
197538.1
197637.6
197737.4
197837
197936.79
198036.6
198136.4
198236.29
198336.19
198436.1
198536
198636.1
198736.1
198836.29
198936.4
199036.7
199137
199237.2
199337.5
199437.79
199538.1
199638.4
199738.8
199839.2
199939.6
200040
200140.5
200241
200341.7
200442.2
NHANES data (4) (Scatter)
XScale label
198940.3%
199342.3%
199958.9%
200154.5%
Healthy People 2010 U.S. Target (Scatter)
XScale label
201020%

 

Footnotes:

(1) HP 2010 considers persons who never engage in light or moderate physical activity for 10-20 minutes to be inactive. The CISNET-Colon models measure physical activity in MET-hours per week. Using this measure, inactivity (i.e., no leisure-time physical activity) is defined as <0.7 MET-hours per week.

(2) Age adjusted to the 2000 standard population using age groups 25-34y, 34-44y, 45-64y, 65-74y.

(3) Age-specific trends applied after the year 2010 (no period trends).

(4) The questions in NHANES 1999-2001 regarding physical inactivity differ from those in NHANES III. Accordingly, the large increase in inactivity in 1999 and 2001 may not reflect a real trend.