Joinpoint Regression Program: Version 3.0 Model Specifications: Response Variable = Age-Adjusted Rate Independent Variable = Year of diagnosis (1973-2002 w/o total) Type of Change Point Model = Joinpoint Loglinear Model = Yes Heteroscedastic Errors Model = Yes Autocorrelation Parameter (AR(1)) = 0.0000 Minimum Number of Joinpoints = 0 Maximum Number of Joinpoints = 3 Minimum Number Obs Before First Joinpoint = 2 Minimum Number Obs Between Two Joinpoints = 2 Number of Grid Points Between Data Points = 0 Method = Grid Search Overall Significance Level of Permutation Tests = 0.0500 Number of Permutations to Perform for Each Test = 4499 Seed for Randomly Permuting Data = 7160 Joinpoint Regression Program: Version 3.0 By-Variable(s): Sex = Male and female Model 0: 0 Joinpoint(s) Number of Observations = 30 Number of Parameters = 2 Degrees of Freedom = 28 Sum of Squared Errors = 693.17 Mean Squared Error = 24.76 Estimated Regression Coefficients (Beta): Parameter Standard Parameter Estimate Error Z Prob > |t| Intercept 16.554 1.980 8.360 0.000 Slope -0.006 0.001 -6.299 0.000 Annual Percent Change (APC): Segment Range APC (95% Confidence Interval) 1 1973 - 2002 -0.625* ( -0.828 , -0.422 ) * The Annual Percent Change (APC) is statistically significant from zero. Joinpoint Regression Program: Version 3.0 By-Variable(s): Sex = Male and female Model 1: 1 Joinpoint(s) Number of Observations = 30 Number of Parameters = 4 Degrees of Freedom = 26 Sum of Squared Errors = 124.60 Mean Squared Error = 4.79 Estimated Joinpoint(s): Join Pt Estimate (95% Confidence Interval) 1 1984 ( 1982 , 1986 ) Estimated Regression Coefficients (Beta): Parameter Standard Parameter Estimate Error Z Prob > |t| Intercept1 -12.964 4.312 -3.007 0.006 Intercept2 28.921 1.776 16.283 0.000 Slope1 0.009 0.002 3.964 0.001 Slope2 -0.012 0.001 -14.001 0.000 Slope2-Slope1 -0.021 0.002 -8.967 0.000 Annual Percent Change (APC): Segment Range APC (95% Confidence Interval) 1 1973 - 1984 0.868* ( 0.416 , 1.321 ) 2 1984 - 2002 -1.240* ( -1.421 , -1.058 ) * The Annual Percent Change (APC) is statistically significant from zero. Joinpoint Regression Program: Version 3.0 By-Variable(s): Sex = Male and female Model 2: 2 Joinpoint(s) Number of Observations = 30 Number of Parameters = 6 Degrees of Freedom = 24 Sum of Squared Errors = 83.81 Mean Squared Error = 3.49 Estimated Joinpoint(s): Join Pt Estimate (95% Confidence Interval) 1 1985 ( 1983 , 1987 ) 2 1994 ( 1987 , 1997 ) Estimated Regression Coefficients (Beta): Parameter Standard Parameter Estimate Error Z Prob > |t| Intercept1 -12.763 3.214 -3.972 0.001 Intercept2 38.391 5.261 7.298 0.000 Intercept3 18.179 5.156 3.526 0.002 Slope1 0.009 0.002 5.257 0.000 Slope2 -0.017 0.003 -6.517 0.000 Slope3 -0.007 0.003 -2.751 0.012 Slope2-Slope1 -0.026 0.003 -8.305 0.000 Slope3-Slope2 0.010 0.004 2.744 0.012 Annual Percent Change (APC): Segment Range APC (95% Confidence Interval) 1 1973 - 1985 0.857* ( 0.518 , 1.198 ) 2 1985 - 1994 -1.709* ( -2.246 , -1.168 ) 3 1994 - 2002 -0.707* ( -1.237 , -0.174 ) * The Annual Percent Change (APC) is statistically significant from zero. Joinpoint Regression Program: Version 3.0 By-Variable(s): Sex = Male and female Model 3: 3 Joinpoint(s) Number of Observations = 30 Number of Parameters = 8 Degrees of Freedom = 22 Sum of Squared Errors = 34.17 Mean Squared Error = 1.55 Estimated Joinpoint(s): Join Pt Estimate (95% Confidence Interval) 1 1985 ( 1984 , 1987 ) 2 1995 ( 1994 , 1996 ) 3 1998 ( 1997 , 2000 ) Estimated Regression Coefficients (Beta): Parameter Standard Parameter Estimate Error Z Prob > |t| Intercept1 -13.355 1.995 -6.695 0.000 Intercept2 40.702 2.733 14.894 0.000 Intercept3 -18.319 29.220 -0.627 0.538 Intercept4 49.191 9.122 5.393 0.000 Slope1 0.009 0.001 8.766 0.000 Slope2 -0.018 0.001 -13.396 0.000 Slope3 0.011 0.015 0.764 0.454 Slope4 -0.023 0.005 -4.956 0.000 Slope2-Slope1 -0.027 0.002 -15.986 0.000 Slope3-Slope2 0.030 0.015 2.013 0.059 Slope4-Slope3 -0.034 0.015 -2.204 0.040 Annual Percent Change (APC): Segment Range APC (95% Confidence Interval) 1 1973 - 1985 0.888* ( 0.675 , 1.101 ) 2 1985 - 1995 -1.823* ( -2.105 , -1.540 ) 3 1995 - 1998 1.125 ( -1.926 , 4.271 ) 4 1998 - 2002 -2.235* ( -3.163 , -1.297 ) * The Annual Percent Change (APC) is statistically significant from zero. Joinpoint Regression Program: Version 3.0 By-Variable(s): Sex = Male Model 0: 0 Joinpoint(s) Number of Observations = 30 Number of Parameters = 2 Degrees of Freedom = 28 Sum of Squared Errors = 552.58 Mean Squared Error = 19.74 Estimated Regression Coefficients (Beta): Parameter Standard Parameter Estimate Error Z Prob > |t| Intercept 16.369 2.572 6.363 0.000 Slope -0.006 0.001 -4.709 0.000 Annual Percent Change (APC): Segment Range APC (95% Confidence Interval) 1 1973 - 2002 -0.607* ( -0.870 , -0.344 ) * The Annual Percent Change (APC) is statistically significant from zero. Joinpoint Regression Program: Version 3.0 By-Variable(s): Sex = Male Model 1: 1 Joinpoint(s) Number of Observations = 30 Number of Parameters = 4 Degrees of Freedom = 26 Sum of Squared Errors = 72.15 Mean Squared Error = 2.77 Estimated Joinpoint(s): Join Pt Estimate (95% Confidence Interval) 1 1985 ( 1983 , 1987 ) Estimated Regression Coefficients (Beta): Parameter Standard Parameter Estimate Error Z Prob > |t| Intercept1 -18.903 4.194 -4.507 0.000 Intercept2 34.411 2.118 16.250 0.000 Slope1 0.012 0.002 5.531 0.000 Slope2 -0.015 0.001 -14.253 0.000 Slope2-Slope1 -0.027 0.002 -11.330 0.000 Annual Percent Change (APC): Segment Range APC (95% Confidence Interval) 1 1973 - 1985 1.179* ( 0.739 , 1.622 ) 2 1985 - 2002 -1.502* ( -1.717 , -1.287 ) * The Annual Percent Change (APC) is statistically significant from zero. Joinpoint Regression Program: Version 3.0 By-Variable(s): Sex = Male Model 2: 2 Joinpoint(s) Number of Observations = 30 Number of Parameters = 6 Degrees of Freedom = 24 Sum of Squared Errors = 62.81 Mean Squared Error = 2.62 Estimated Joinpoint(s): Join Pt Estimate (95% Confidence Interval) 1 1986 ( 1975 , 1988 ) 2 1994 ( 1984 , 2000 ) Estimated Regression Coefficients (Beta): Parameter Standard Parameter Estimate Error Z Prob > |t| Intercept1 -17.436 3.530 -4.939 0.000 Intercept2 43.733 7.909 5.530 0.000 Intercept3 26.733 6.289 4.251 0.000 Slope1 0.011 0.002 6.158 0.000 Slope2 -0.020 0.004 -4.987 0.000 Slope3 -0.011 0.003 -3.589 0.002 Slope2-Slope1 -0.031 0.004 -7.071 0.000 Slope3-Slope2 0.009 0.005 1.682 0.107 Annual Percent Change (APC): Segment Range APC (95% Confidence Interval) 1 1973 - 1986 1.104* ( 0.731 , 1.479 ) 2 1986 - 1994 -1.962* ( -2.767 , -1.151 ) 3 1994 - 2002 -1.123* ( -1.766 , -0.476 ) * The Annual Percent Change (APC) is statistically significant from zero. Joinpoint Regression Program: Version 3.0 By-Variable(s): Sex = Male Model 3: 3 Joinpoint(s) Number of Observations = 30 Number of Parameters = 8 Degrees of Freedom = 22 Sum of Squared Errors = 30.09 Mean Squared Error = 1.37 Estimated Joinpoint(s): Join Pt Estimate (95% Confidence Interval) 1 1986 ( 1984 , 1988 ) 2 1995 ( 1993 , 1996 ) 3 1998 ( 1997 , 2000 ) Estimated Regression Coefficients (Beta): Parameter Standard Parameter Estimate Error Z Prob > |t| Intercept1 -18.179 2.152 -8.445 0.000 Intercept2 47.384 3.940 12.025 0.000 Intercept3 -15.230 34.896 -0.436 0.667 Intercept4 62.660 10.896 5.751 0.000 Slope1 0.011 0.001 10.444 0.000 Slope2 -0.022 0.002 -10.940 0.000 Slope3 0.010 0.017 0.557 0.584 Slope4 -0.029 0.005 -5.371 0.000 Slope2-Slope1 -0.033 0.002 -14.617 0.000 Slope3-Slope2 0.031 0.018 1.784 0.090 Slope4-Slope3 -0.039 0.018 -2.129 0.047 Annual Percent Change (APC): Segment Range APC (95% Confidence Interval) 1 1973 - 1986 1.142* ( 0.912 , 1.373 ) 2 1986 - 1995 -2.142* ( -2.547 , -1.736 ) 3 1995 - 1998 0.978 ( -2.650 , 4.740 ) 4 1998 - 2002 -2.883* ( -3.984 , -1.770 ) * The Annual Percent Change (APC) is statistically significant from zero. Joinpoint Regression Program: Version 3.0 By-Variable(s): Sex = Female Model 0: 0 Joinpoint(s) Number of Observations = 30 Number of Parameters = 2 Degrees of Freedom = 28 Sum of Squared Errors = 260.48 Mean Squared Error = 9.30 Estimated Regression Coefficients (Beta): Parameter Standard Parameter Estimate Error Z Prob > |t| Intercept 18.397 1.705 10.791 0.000 Slope -0.007 0.001 -8.482 0.000 Annual Percent Change (APC): Segment Range APC (95% Confidence Interval) 1 1973 - 2002 -0.725* ( -0.899 , -0.550 ) * The Annual Percent Change (APC) is statistically significant from zero. Joinpoint Regression Program: Version 3.0 By-Variable(s): Sex = Female Model 1: 1 Joinpoint(s) Number of Observations = 30 Number of Parameters = 4 Degrees of Freedom = 26 Sum of Squared Errors = 84.06 Mean Squared Error = 3.23 Estimated Joinpoint(s): Join Pt Estimate (95% Confidence Interval) 1 1981 ( 1979 , 1985 ) Estimated Regression Coefficients (Beta): Parameter Standard Parameter Estimate Error Z Prob > |t| Intercept1 -16.816 8.137 -2.067 0.049 Intercept2 25.638 1.655 15.491 0.000 Slope1 0.011 0.004 2.557 0.017 Slope2 -0.011 0.001 -13.126 0.000 Slope2-Slope1 -0.021 0.004 -5.104 0.000 Annual Percent Change (APC): Segment Range APC (95% Confidence Interval) 1 1973 - 1981 1.058* ( 0.205 , 1.919 ) 2 1981 - 2002 -1.084* ( -1.254 , -0.915 ) * The Annual Percent Change (APC) is statistically significant from zero. Joinpoint Regression Program: Version 3.0 By-Variable(s): Sex = Female Model 2: 2 Joinpoint(s) Number of Observations = 30 Number of Parameters = 6 Degrees of Freedom = 24 Sum of Squared Errors = 51.97 Mean Squared Error = 2.17 Estimated Joinpoint(s): Join Pt Estimate (95% Confidence Interval) 1 1984 ( 1980 , 1986 ) 2 1993 ( 1987 , 1997 ) Estimated Regression Coefficients (Beta): Parameter Standard Parameter Estimate Error Z Prob > |t| Intercept1 -9.047 4.080 -2.217 0.037 Intercept2 39.430 5.905 6.678 0.000 Intercept3 13.820 4.870 2.838 0.010 Slope1 0.007 0.002 3.198 0.004 Slope2 -0.018 0.003 -6.007 0.000 Slope3 -0.005 0.002 -2.047 0.053 Slope2-Slope1 -0.024 0.004 -6.758 0.000 Slope3-Slope2 0.013 0.004 3.345 0.003 Annual Percent Change (APC): Segment Range APC (95% Confidence Interval) 1 1973 - 1984 0.662* ( 0.232 , 1.093 ) 2 1984 - 1993 -1.768* ( -2.371 , -1.161 ) 3 1993 - 2002 -0.498 ( -0.999 , 0.007 ) * The Annual Percent Change (APC) is statistically significant from zero. Joinpoint Regression Program: Version 3.0 By-Variable(s): Sex = Female Model 3: 3 Joinpoint(s) Number of Observations = 30 Number of Parameters = 8 Degrees of Freedom = 22 Sum of Squared Errors = 31.34 Mean Squared Error = 1.42 Estimated Joinpoint(s): Join Pt Estimate (95% Confidence Interval) 1 1984 ( 1976 , 1986 ) 2 1995 ( 1984 , 1997 ) 3 1998 ( 1992 , 2000 ) Estimated Regression Coefficients (Beta): Parameter Standard Parameter Estimate Error Z Prob > |t| Intercept1 -8.999 3.251 -2.768 0.012 Intercept2 39.211 3.356 11.686 0.000 Intercept3 -24.362 42.533 -0.573 0.574 Intercept4 42.076 13.209 3.186 0.005 Slope1 0.007 0.002 3.999 0.001 Slope2 -0.018 0.002 -10.511 0.000 Slope3 0.014 0.021 0.664 0.515 Slope4 -0.019 0.007 -2.895 0.009 Slope2-Slope1 -0.024 0.002 -10.320 0.000 Slope3-Slope2 0.032 0.021 1.491 0.152 Slope4-Slope3 -0.033 0.022 -1.491 0.152 Annual Percent Change (APC): Segment Range APC (95% Confidence Interval) 1 1973 - 1984 0.659* ( 0.314 , 1.006 ) 2 1984 - 1995 -1.757* ( -2.103 , -1.410 ) 3 1995 - 1998 1.424 ( -2.999 , 6.049 ) 4 1998 - 2002 -1.893* ( -3.240 , -0.528 ) * The Annual Percent Change (APC) is statistically significant from zero.