Risk Factor Model Inputs through 2020

Percent Using Multivitamins(1)

Black Males, Ages 25-74(2)

Projected multivitamin use trend (2005-2020) (Line)
XY
200424.3
200524.3
200624.2
200724.2
200824.2
200924.1
201024.1
201124
201224
201323.9
201423.9
201523.79
201623.79
201723.7
201823.7
201923.6
202023.5
Healthy People 2010 goal met (3) (Line)
XY
200424.3
200539.66
200651.88
200761.58
200869.32
200975.47
201079.95
201179.56
201279.2
201378.8
201478.34
201577.79
201677.37
201776.92
201876.48
201976.02
202075.56
Optimistic but realistic goal (3) (Line)
XY
200424.3
200525.3
200626.2
200727.2
200828.1
200928.99
201029.9
201130.7
201231.6
201332.4
201433.2
201534
201634.69
201735.5
201836.19
201936.9
202037.6
Multivitamin use trend (1970-2004) (Line)
XY
19705.09
19715.6
19726.2
19736.8
19747.5
19758.3
19769
19779.9
197810.7
197911.6
198012.5
198113.4
198214.3
198315.2
198416.1
198517.1
198617.89
198718.8
198819.6
198920.3
199021.1
199121.7
199222.3
199322.8
199423.2
199523.6
199623.9
199724.1
199824.2
199924.3
200024.4
200124.4
200224.4
200324.3
200424.3
NHANES data (Scatter)
XScale label
19787.1%
198917.39%
199322.7%
199924.2%
Healthy People 2010 U.S. Target (Scatter)
XScale label
201080%

 

Footnotes:

(1) The official Healthy People 2010 objective is to increase the proportion of women of child-bearing age (i.e., 15-44y) who consume at least 400µg of folic acid each day. Folic acid consumption prior to and during pregnancy has been shown to reduce the risk of neural tube defects among newborns. One way to achieve this target is to take a multivitamin containing folic acid. Since regular multivitamin use also is associated with a reduction in the risk of colorectal adenomas and cancer, we applied the objective to the entire adult population regardless of age or gender.

(2) Age adjusted to the 2000 standard population using age groups 25-44y, 45-64y, 65-74y.

(3) Age-specific trends applied after the year 2010 (no period trends).