On March 11, the Urban Institute released a brief examining the demographics of those likely to be uninsured following the full implementation of the national health care reform law.  The Urban Institute estimates that the law will reduce the number of uninsured individuals by 30 million, or 50 percent.  The brief projects that 37 percent of those remaining uninsured will be Medicaid eligible but not enrolled in the program, 25 percent will be undocumented immigrants, and 16 percent will be exempt from the law’s individual insurance mandate because they do not have an affordable health coverage option.

From the report: 

The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA) will expand insurance coverage by about 30 million people. Although this still falls short of universal coverage, the number of uninsured people will be reduced by more than half. Safety net providers and programs, therefore, will still face the challenge of substantial numbers of uninsured who cannot afford a full range of needed services.

Even more than the number of uninsured, the composition of the uninsured will change substantially under the ACA, and accordingly, their reasons for being uninsured. Beginning in 2014, most Americans will be required to have health insurance coverage meeting certain minimum requirements and will be subject to financial penalties if they do not comply. Exemptions will also be granted if no affordable insurance coverage is available and for a variety of other specialized circumstances, such as people who are Native Americans, prisoners or have religious objections.1 Medicaid eligibility will expand greatly for adults in many states, but little or not at all for children. Due to CHIP, their eligibility levels for public coverage are already much higher than for adults. Undocumented immigrants are not subject to the mandate, nor are they eligible for Medicaid or for any federal subsidies.

Full report: Who Will Be Uninsured After Health Insurance Reform? (PDF | 373.67KB)

Urban Institute.  (2011).  Who will be uninsured after health insurance reform?.  Buettgens, M. and Hall, M.