The Threat

Throughout the years of the Cold War, the U.S. relied significantly on nuclear weapons to deter hostile threats. This concept was centered upon the idea of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) -- protecting ourselves with weapons that could destroy any enemies who were aiming to harm or destroy us. However, the world soon rejected the MAD policy of retaliation as concern over nuclear arsenals increased. While the end of the Cold War signaled a reduction in the likelihood of global nuclear conflict, one of the greatest threats facing the world today remains the increasing proliferation of ballistic missiles and weapons of mass destruction.

Countries invest in ballistic missiles because they are a means to project power both in a regional and strategic context and a capability to launch an attack from a distance. Presently, sophisticated ballistic missile technology is available on a wider scale than ever to countries hostile to the U.S. and our allies. As those countries continue to develop and exchange this technology, there is also an increasing threat of those technologies falling into the hands of hostile non-state groups.

The Intelligence Community states that current trends indicate that proliferation of ballistic missile systems, using advanced liquid- or solid-propellant propulsion technologies, are becoming more mobile, survivable, reliable, accurate and capable of striking targets over longer distances. The proliferation of ballistic missiles is increasing the number of anti-access weapons available to potential regional adversaries. These weapons could be used to reduce military options for Combatant Commanders and decrease the survivability of regional military assets.

Iran has grown its short- and medium-range missile inventories, while improving the lethality, deployability, and effectiveness of existing systems with new propellants, more accurate guidance systems and payloads. Iran’s launch of a solid-fuel, 2,000 km medium-range ballistic missile last month demonstrates a capability to strike targets in Israel as well as southern Europe. And with the successful launch of the Safir Space Launch Vehicle on February 2, 2009, Iran demonstrated technologies that are directly applicable to the development of ICBMs.

North Korea deploys a No Dong ballistic missile capable of reaching Japan and South Korea and U.S. bases throughout the region, and continues to develop a new intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) capable of reaching Guam and the Aleutian Islands. Despite the failure to place an object in orbit on April 5, 2009, North Korea successfully demonstrated the same staging and separation technologies required to launch a two-stage Taepo-Dong 2 ICBM capable of reaching the United States.

An additional concern are North Korea’s and Iran’s repeated demonstrations of salvo launches, indicating large ballistic missile attack raid sizes must be considered in developing the BMDS capability.

Syria continues to field updated Short-Range Ballistic Missile (SRBM) systems and acquire Scud-related equipment and materials from North Korea and Iran.

There has been an increase of over 1,200 additional ballistic missiles over the past 5 years. The total of ballistic missiles outside the United States, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), Russia, and China has risen over 5,900. Hundreds of launchers and missiles are currently within the range of our deployed forces today.

The increasing technology transfer and missile proliferation could render traditional deterrence and diplomacy ineffective against a future missile attack on the U.S., our deployed forces, or our allies. Through its capabilities for defending critical nodes, military assets, and seats of government, missile defense enhances existing non-proliferation activities. Missile defenses can provide a permanent presence in a region and discourage adversaries from believing they can use ballistic missiles to coerce or intimidate the U.S. or its allies.