Projections
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Current Law Projections

  1. Early Eligibility
    Age Beneficiaries
    in 2050

  2. Oldest Old
    in 2050
  3. Scheduled
    vs. Payable
    Benefits
  4. Spousal-Only
    Beneficiaries
    in 2050
  5. Survivor-Only
    Beneficiaries
    in 2050
  6. Women & Dual
    Entitlement,
    2025–2080
  7. Why Will
    Poverty Decline
    for Beneficiaries?

Why Will Poverty Decline for Social Security
Beneficiaries Aged 60 or Older?

Released: April 2012
Next expected update: Spring 2014
  • Income rises with wages, while the poverty thresholda is indexed to prices.
  • Wages are projected to increase at a faster rate than prices.
  • Over time, wage growth is projected to outpace price growth, lifting beneficiaries over the poverty threshold.
Poverty Rate for Beneficiaries Aged 60 or Older, 2012–2080
Line chart linked to data in table format.
SOURCES: Modeling Income in the Near Term, Version 6 (MINT6) microsimulation model using 2011 Trustees Report intermediate assumptions. The 2011 Trustees Report projects tax rates will be sufficient to pay 77 percent of scheduled benefits after trust fund exhaustion in 2036, often referred to as payable benefits.
Projected Average Wage and Price Growth, 2010–2020
In thousands of dollars
Line chart linked to data in table format.
SOURCE: Based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Average Wage Index (AWI) assumptions from the 2011 Trustees Report.
Projected Growth of Poverty-Level Income and the Poverty Threshold, 2010–2020
In thousands of dollars
Line chart linked to data in table format.
SOURCE: Based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Average Wage Index (AWI) assumptions from the 2011 Trustees Report.
a. U.S. Census Bureau, Poverty Thresholds by Size of Family and Number of Children.