Quotes
- "When you're finished changing, you're finished."
--- Benjamin Franklin
- "Fortune favors the prepared mind."
--- Louis Pasteur
- "The Future is already here. (It is just not uniformly distributed.)."
--- William Gibson
- "Adherence to dogmas has destroyed more armies and cost more battles than anything in war."
--- J.F.C. Fuller
- "Victory smiles upon those who anticipate the changes in the character of war, not upon those who wait to adapt themselves after the changes occur."
--- Giulio Douhet
- "If there is one attitude more dangerous than to assume that a future war will be just like the last one, it is to imagine that it will be so utterly different that we can afford to ignore all the lessons of the last one."
--- MRAF Sir John C. Slessor
- "The talk you hear about adapting to change is not only stupid, it's dangerous. The only way you can manage change is to create it."
--- Peter Drucker
- "It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent that survives. It is the one that is the most adaptable to change."
--- Charles Darwin
- "The reasonable man adapts himself to the world; the unreasonable man persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore all progress depends on the unreasonable man."
--- George Bernard Shaw
- Full fathom five thy father lies;
Of his bones are coral made;
Those are pearls that were his eyes:
Nothing of him that doth fade
But doth suffer a sea-change
Into something rich and strange.
--- Ariel, singing to Ferdinand, in Shakespeare's Tempest
General
- Transformation bibliography, U.S. Army War College Library
- Military Transformation bibliography, Air University Library - includes extensive internet resources
- How Has War Changed Since the End of the Cold War?, by Gray, in Parameters, Spring 2005 - wide-ranging discussion including a section titled "The Strategic Potency of a Transforming Military Will Be Disappointing"
- Transformation Chief Outlines Strategy for New Battlefield (local copy, pdf),
(local copy, doc),
American Forces Press Service coverage of 4 Aug 2004 speech by Cebrowski
- Cebrowski said the time has come to turn old models upside-down. The nation always has been strategically defensive and operationally offensive, he said. As problems like the possibility of weapons of mass destruction move in closer to home, he explained, it's becoming obvious that being operationally defensive is more advantageous. And because the consequences are so grave, strategic offense may be necessary, he added. "This is a switch. It defies all the thinking we've had … for American diplomacy for a long time," he said.
- The focus on intelligence has changed, too, he said. Social intelligence -- an in-depth knowledge of local culture and customs -- is being valued much more over military intelligence.
- The American Way of War (local copy), by Cebrowski and Barnett, Transformation Trends newsletter, 13 Jan 2003
- The Top 100 Rules of the New American Way of War (local copy), by Barnett and Gaffney, posted at the NewRuleSets.Project at Naval War College
- Thinking Out of the Box: Reading Military Texts from a Different Perspective, by Ridderhof, in Naval War College Review, Autumn 2002 - using a deconstructive technique to get more meaning and ideas out of military readings - especially when considering evolution vs revolution in military transformation
- Demystifying Transformation (local copy), 14 Aug 2002, from American Forces Press Service, includes brief discussion of Millennium Challenge 2002 and operations in Afghanistan and what they show and don't show about transformation
- Defense Transformation (local copy, PDF), Testimony of Andrew Krepinevich, Executive Director of Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, before the Senate Committee on Armed Services, April 2002 (local copy, HTML)
- Emerging Threats, Revolutionary Capabilities And Military Transformation, Testimony of Andrew Krepinevich, Executive Director of Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, before the Senate Armed Services Subcommittee on Emerging Threats and Capabilities, 1999
NATO
Joint/DoD
- See also Strategic Visions - U.S., DoD, & services
- See also U.S. National Defense Strategy and National Military Strategy
- Transformation - DoD - apparently this is the current page
- DoD - Transforming the U.S. Military - this page appears to not have material from later than 2003
- U.S. Joint Forces Command (JFCOM) - leading the transformation of the US military
- What Is Transformation? - DoD goals below
- Protect the U.S. homeland and our forces overseas
- Project and sustain power in distant theatres
- Deny our enemies sanctuary
- Protect our own information networks from attack
- Use information technology to link up different kinds of U.S. forces so they can fight jointly
- Maintain unhindered access to space and protect our space capabilities from enemy attack
- DoD Office of Force Transformation - check here for DoD roadmaps to future
- Changing military culture key to transformation (local copy), 7 Oct 04 notes from interview with Gen Myers
- The most important area for transformation is the space "between our warfighters' ears," said the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
- Gen. Richard B. Myers addressed the need for servicemembers and Department of Defense civilians to transform the way they think. He said DOD people need to be more agile, innovative and not afraid to take appropriate chances.
- The way the military has trained and educated leaders is a hurdle that must be overcome, the chairman said.
- "We have to create a new generation of leaders who are not constrained by what the doctrine says," he said.
- "In today's world, there ought to be a premium for people who are thinking, innovative and are willing to take appropriate risks," he said. "If you don't try, and you stay locked in the doctrine that brought you there, you're going to fail. You are not going to be as good as you can be in terms of efficiency in the battlespace, and you're probably going to hurt your people. You've got to adapt."
- General Myers said the U.S. Joint Forces Command is the epicenter of transformation in the U.S. military.
- "In fact, given the threats we face, we have to take a hard look at how we're organized and how we should be organized," he said.
- The chairman said people are working hard at changing the culture.
"But it's a big ship and not much of a rudder," he said. "It's tough to turn the ship in the direction it needs to go."
- On the battlefield, people will be as innovative as they have to be in order to be successful.
"We have to make sure we support that," General Myers said. "It's a formula for disaster if we don't do this transformation."
- The Top 100 Rules of the New American Way of War (local copy), by Barnett and Gaffney, posted at the NewRuleSets.Project at Naval War College
- Transformation Begins With Leadership (local copy) - report on 11 Feb 04 speech by DoD's director of force transformation
- "One of the great rules for transformation," he [Cebrowski] said, "is if you want to transform go where the money is and on arrival, change the rules. That's what we have to do.
- Leaders must be willing to "devalue" things, said Cebrowski.
- First and foremost, cultural change is a leadership issue, said the transformation chief. "Culture is what leaders believe and how leaders behave."
- Integrating Innovation, Leadership, and Cultural Change (local copy), 21 Oct 03 presentation by Garstka at transformation workshop
- Rumsfeld Tells Congress Changes Needed to Increase Flexibility (local copy)
"Today, we estimate we have some 320,000 uniformed people doing nonmilitary jobs, yet we are calling up reserves to fight the global war on terror."
- Special Briefing on Force Transformation (local copy), 27 Nov 2001, by Arthur K. Cebrowski, Director, Force Transformation
- DoD Directive 5100.1, Functions of the Department of Defense and Its Major Components, 01 Aug 2002 -- with organizational and semantic changes to DoD and the services -- "Cancels DoD Directive 5100.1, September 25, 1987; and Promulgates the functions of the Department of Defense and its major components according to Title 10, United States Code" (local copy)
- Joint and Service Visions of the Future
- Deputy SecDef Wolfowitz Testimony to the Senate on Transformation, 9 Apr Jan 02, (local copy)
- three key points
- transformation is about changing the military culture into one that encourages innovation and intelligent risk taking
- although we now face the enormous challenge of winning the global war on terrorism, we must also address the equally large challenge of preparing our forces for the future
- our overall goal is to encourage a series of transformations that, in combination, can produce a revolutionary increase in our military capability and redefine how war is fought
- four important new directions set in the QDR
- move away from the two Major Theater War (MTW) force planning construct
- a new framework for assessing risk
- shift planning from "threat-based" model to "capabilities-based" model
- determine what the strategic and operational challenges and the goals to address them might be
- four categories of risk
- force management risks dealing with how we sustain our people, equipment, and infrastructure
- operational risks dealing with the ability of our forces to accomplish the missions called for in near-term military plans
- future challenges risks dealing with the investments and changes needed today to permit us to deal with military challenges of the more distant future
- institutional risks involved with inefficient processes and excessive support requirements that jeopardize our ability to use resources efficiently
- six transformation goals identified in the QDR
- First, to defend the U.S. homeland and other bases of operations, and defeat nuclear, biological and chemical weapons and their means of delivery
- Second, to deny enemies sanctuary-depriving them of the ability to run or hide-anytime, anywhere
- Third, to project and sustain forces in distant theaters in the face of access denial threats
- Fourth, to conduct effective operations in space
- Fifth, to conduct effective information operations; and,
- Sixth, to leverage information technology to give our joint forces a common operational picture.
- accelerating cultural change and fostering innovation
- SecDef speech on Transformation, 31 Jan 02 (local copy)
- ... more realistic and balanced assessment of our near-term warfighting needs.
- Instead of maintaining two occupation forces, we will place greater emphasis on deterrence in four critical theaters, backed by the ability to swiftly defeat two aggressors at the same time, while preserving the option for one massive counter-offensive to occupy an aggressor's capital and replace the regime.
- To prepare for the future,
- we also decided to move away from the so-called threat-based strategy that had dominated our country's defense planning for nearly a half-century and adopt what we characterized as a capability-based strategy, one that focuses less on who might threaten us or where we might be threatened, and more on how we might be threatened and what we need to do to deter and defend against such threats.
- ... must be focused on achieving six transformational goals:
- protect the U.S. homeland and our bases overseas
- project and sustain power in distant theaters
- deny our enemies sanctuary
- protect our information networks from attack
- use information technology to link up different kinds of U.S. forces so that they can in fact fight jointly
- maintain unhindered access to space and protect our space capabilities from enemy attack
- And we must transform not only our armed forces, but also the Department that serves them by encouraging a culture of creativity and intelligent risk taking.
Air Force
- See also Air Force vision documents
- See also Air Force Transformation Flight Plan
- See also Space Transformation, section below
- Air Force Transformation
- Airpower and the Emerging U.S. Security Framework for the Persian Gulf (local copy), by Wallace, Naval Postgraduate School, June 2005
- Airpower, Jointness, and Transformation, by Fought, Key, and Seminar Six - in Air & Space Power Journal, Winter 2003
- Global Strike Task Force (GSTF): A Transforming Concept, Forged by Experience, by Jumper, in Airpower Journal, Spring 2001
- USAF CONOPS Champions website -- first place to look for info on AF CONOPS
- CSAF Task Force CONOPS - "we are developing a family of Task Force CONOPS that will describe how we tailor forces from the Expeditionary Air and Space Force (AEF) construct and employ them in a variety of real-world scenarios" -- Gen Jumper, in Military Aerospace Technology Online, May 2002
- current list
- Global Mobility (GM)
- Space & C4ISR
- Nuclear Response (NR)
- Homeland Security (HLS)
- Integration
- Global Strike (GS)
- Global Persistent Attack (GPA)
- Agile Combat Support (ACS)
- previous list
- Global Mobility TF (GMTF)
- Air & Space C2ISR Task Force (A&S C2ISR)
- Nuclear Response Task Force (NRTF)
- Homeland Security Task Force (HLSTF)
- Air & Space Expeditionary Forces CONOPS (ASEF)
- Global Strike Task Force (GSTF)
- Global Response Task Force (GRTF)
- Air Force Transformation: Past, Present, and Future, by Major General David Deptula, in Aerospace Power Journal, Fall 2001
- Playing Defense and Offense: Employing Rescue Resources as Offensive Weapons, by Blumentritt, a SAAS paper
Army
Navy
- See also Navy vision documents
- Naval Transformation Roadmap, 2003
- Submarine Innovation, Navy Submarine Warfare Division
- "Outliers" program at the Naval Postgraduate School
- Outliers is the new forum for the visionary, revolutionary, controversial and even heretical ideas for military innovation that are not easily incorporated into traditional military-sanctioned briefs or publications. We provide a way for masterful and ingenious ideas to be heard and create a process for their discussion and profiling in the mainstream of society.
Marine
Coast Guard
Logistics
Space
Key Documents and Guidance
- See also Joint - DoD section above
- Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) Report - current and previous ones
- 2006 QDR Preface lists several pages of shifts in emphasis, such as "From a time of reasonable predictability – to
an era of surprise and uncertainty."
- 2006 QDR mentions 'development of follow-on “roadmaps” for areas of particular emphasis in the QDR, including:'
- Department institutional reform and governance.
- Irregular warfare.
- Building partnership capacity.
- Strategic communication.
- Intelligence.
- 2006 QDR: "To operationalize the [National Defense] strategy, the Department’s senior civilian and military leaders identified four priorities as the focus of the QDR:
- Defeating terrorist networks.
- Defending the homeland in depth.
- Shaping the choices of countries at strategic crossroads.
- Preventing hostile states and non-state actors from acquiring or using WMD.
- SecDef speech on Transformation, 31 Jan 02 (local copy)
- DoD Transformation Study Report - Transforming Military Operations Capabilities, 27 April 2001
- Title 10, Goldwater Nichols Act of 1986 (local copy)
- Professional Military Education in 2020, from SpaceCast 2020 project, condensed for Airpower Journal
- Foreign Missile Developments and the Ballistic Missile Threat Through 2015 (local copy), Dec 2001 summary of a National Intelligence Estimate
- Patterns of Global Terrorism, Apr 2001 State Dept report
- Global Trends 2015: A Dialogue About the Future with Nongovernment Experts, Dec 2000 report prepared under the direction of the National Intelligence Council
- The Global Infectious Disease Threat and Its Implications for the United States, Jan 2000 National Intelligence Estimate
- Report of the Commission to Assess United States National Security Space Management and Organization, Jan 2001 (aka "the Space Commission Report")
- SpaceCast 2020, 1994 study hosted by Air University
- Air Force 2025, 1996 study hosted by Air University
- New World Vistas: Air and Space Power for the 21st Century (local copy), 1995, by AF Scientific Advisory Board
- U.S. Commission on National Security/21st Century (local copy), 1998-2001 Hart-Rudman Commission
- Preparing for the 21st Century, An Appraisal of U.S. Intelligence, 1996 report by the Commission on the Roles and Capabilities of the United States Intelligence Community
Innovation Adoption - Diffusion Model(s)
- See also Innovation Adoption-Diffusion on Future Studies page
- See also Disruptive Technologies & Disruptive Innovation on Future Studies page
- See also Creativity and Innovation on Thinking Skills page
- Confronting the Unconventional: Innovation and Transformation in Military Affairs (local copy), by Tucker, Strategic Studies Institute, Oct 2006
- Report on System-Level Experimentation (local copy), USAF Scientific Advisory Board, July 2006
- The Air Force has innovative people, yet it fails to take full advantage of them and, indeed, sometimes hinders them. Over the course of the study the team met many creative Airmen (both military and civilian) predisposed to the types of disruptive thinking fundamental to this study. They uniformly expressed frustration at the lack of a forum to present their ideas and at the impediments for advancing those ideas as system solutions fielded for the war fighter. Both the Air Force’s bureaucratic acquisition process and risk-adverse culture limit their effectiveness as innovators. A critical need, for example, in any innovative organization is the free flow of information. One of the most disappointing findings of the study was the identification of intentional efforts to stifle information exchange around the USAF. Borne of fears over cyber-security, the USAF communications systems managers implement an information lock-down that too often defies logic. No one questions the worth of readiness for cyber attacks and network warfare, but restrictive security practices frequently hamper reasonable, necessary information exchange. The Air Force needs policies and technologies that balance network security and the need to collaborate effectively to pursue innovation.
- The Air Force has largely lost its ability to foster disruptive innovation. The future demands that the Air Force once again become a leader in disruptive innovation, and the rest of this report outlines our suggestions initiating this transition.
- The Changing Landscape of Defense Innovation (local copy), by Bracken, Brandt, and Johnson - Defense Horizons Number 47, July 2005 - Center for Technology and National Security Policy, NDU
- “Adapt or Die” - The Imperative for a Culture of Innovation in the United States Army (local copy), by Fastabend and Simpson
- "Culture changes only after you have successfully altered people’s actions, after the new behavior produces some group benefit for a period of time.”
- - John Kotter, Harvard Business School
- Workshop Introducing Innovation and Risk: Implications of Transforming the Culture of DoD (local copy), by Johnson, IDA hosted workshop Mar 2004 for the Office of Force Transformation - including discussion of individual and organizational resistance to change
- Integrating Innovation, Leadership, and Cultural Change (local copy), 21 Oct 03 presentation by Garstka at transformation workshop
- Winning at Change, by John P. Kotter, in Leader to Leader, Fall 1998 - excellent article, and a quick read
- includes several short discussions of topics such as balancing short-term change with long-term vision, creating a vision, and traits of effective leaders
- includes four mistakes that are "the source of most failures" (with explanations)
- Writing a memo instead of lighting a fire
- Talking too much and saying too little
- Declaring victory before the war is over
- Looking for villains in all the wrong places
- includes three keys to building guiding coalitions (with explanations)
- Engaging the right talent
- Growing the coalition strategically
- Working as a team, not just a collection of individuals
- includes his "Eight Steps to Transform Your Organization" (with substeps)
- Establish a Sense of Urgency
- Form a Powerful Guiding Coalition
- Create a Vision
- Communicate the Vision
- Empower Others to Act on the Vision
- Plan for and Create Short-Term Wins
- Consolidate Improvements and Produce Still More Change
- Institutionalize New Approaches
- Leadership Styles for the Five Stages of Radical Change (local copy), by Reardon, Reardon, and Rowe, in Acquisition Review Quarterly, discusses the leadership styles best suited to each phase of the change process - (phases listed below)
- planning
- enabling
- launching
- catalyzing
- maintaining
- Radical Change by Entrepreneurial Design(local copy), by Roberts, in Acquisition Review Quarterly, "opens with a typology that defines change in terms of its pace and scope, and defines radical change as the swift transformation of an entire system."
- Predicting Military Innovation, annotated briefing from RAND
- Gunfire at Sea: A Case Study of Innovation -- includes discussion of reasons behind resistance to change, and examples which may look familiar
- Joint Center for International and Security Studies (JCISS)
- Innovation and the Military Mind, by Air Vice-Marshal R. A. Mason
- Leadership and High Technology, by Brig Gen Stuart R. Boyd
- Leadership: Creativity and Innovation, Dr William R. Klemm
- Organizational Change: An Assessment of Trust and Cynicism (local copy), 2000 paper by Thompson et al, for FAA
Adaptive Learning Organizations
- See also organizational learning
- Learning Organization Doctrine - Roadmap for Transformation (local copy), U.S. Army Corps of Engineers - discusses use of tools, such as 7S model, to become a "learning organization"
- "The new Corps can become a complex, self-organizing, adaptive learning organization where people are empowered to be creative and innovative to help diverse civilian and military clients succeed."
- USACE 2012: Future Corporate and HQ Design Study - Appendix C: Future Ideal Corporate Design (local copy), U.S. Army Corps of Engineers - discusses from the vantage point of 2012 what the CoE went through to become a learning organization
- Sytems Thinking and Learning Organizations (local copy), in Strategic Leadership and Decision Making, NDU publication
- Al-Qaida in Action and Learning: A Systems Approach (local copy), paper by Lutes, George Washington University
- Peter M. Senge, The Fifth Discipline: The Art and Practice of The Learning Organization (New York: Doubleday/Currency, 1990
- book review (local copy) of The Fifth Discipline, by Senge, 1990
- Asymmetry and Adaptive Command (local copy), by Worley, in Military Review, July-Aug 2001
- Thinking About ... Learning in DoD: Changing the Culture (local copy, PDF version, 300 Kb), briefing by Wertheim, posted at DODCCRP - emphasis on need for more cultural education and understanding and skills
(original PPT file, 2 Mb)
Books, Articles, etc.
- Breakthrough Air Force Capabilities Spawned by Basic Research (Local copy), by Berry and Loeb, Center for Technology and National Security Policy, NDU, April 2007
- Crack in the Foundation: Defense Transformation and the Underlying Assumption of Dominant Knowledge in Future War (local copy), by McMaster, CSL at Army War College
- Transforming America's Military (local copy), by NDU Press
- Military Transformation and the Defense Industry after Next (local copy), Newport Paper No. 18, Naval War College
- Military Reform Project, Center for Defense Information (CDI)
- A Swift, Elusive Sword: What If Sun Tzu and John Boyd Did a National Defense Review, by Richards, at CDI
- Battlefield of the Future, Sep 1995 book by Schneider, et al
- Blue Horizon: US - Japan - PRC Tripartite Relations (local copy), NDU book online
- Organizational Change: An Assessment of Trust and Cynicism (local copy), 2000 paper by Thompson et al, for FAA
- The Revenge of the Melians: Asymmetric Threats and the Next QDR (local copy), McNair paper by McKenzie -- extensive look at asymmetries U.S. faces
- Illuminating Tomorrow's War (local copy), McNair paper by Libicki -- looking at sensor warfare and the Global Grid system of systems (over 6 Mb file size)
- A Kill Is A Kill -- Asymmetrically Attacking U.S. Airpower, 1999 SAAS paper by O'Halloran
- A Military for the 21st Century: Lessons from the Recent Past (local copy), by Zinni, for Strategic Forum, July 2001
- Military Lessons from Desert One to the Balkans (local copy), by Ike Skelton, for Strategic Forum, October 2000
- Army Transformation: A Tale of Two Doctrines, by Jablonsky, in Parameters, Autumn 2001
- Transforming the U.S. Armed Forces - Rhetoric or Reality?, by Mahnken, in Naval War College Review, Summer 2001
- The Next Twist of the RMA, by Metz, in Parameters, Autumn 2000
- Measuring the Effects of Network-Centric Warfare
- Ten Propositions Regarding Spacepower, Jun 2001 SAAS paper, by Smith
- The Transformation Trinity - A Model for Strategic Innovation and Its Application to Space Power, Jun 2000 SAAS paper, by McClintock
- Transforming Warfare with Effects-Based Joint Operations, by Bingham, in Spring 2001 Airpower Journal
- A Strategy for a Long Peace, by Krepinevich, 12 Feb 2001 Senate committee testimony (local copy)
- Emerging Threats, Revolutionary Capabilities, and Military Transformation, by Krepinevich, Senate testimony addressing barriers to progress and other items which would need to be considered and/or modeled when looking to the future
- House Subcommittee Testimony on Defense Modernization, Krepinevich, 8 Oct 1998 (local copy)
- War Winning Paradigms and Visions for High-End Warfare, research paper by Ruhlman
- Organizational Change and the New Technologies of War, by Dunlap
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